My Plays for 2-23 including nba total of the year!!

[Alan Palmer]

$550-$500 miami+4
$330-$300 over 196.5 chi-cleveland
$550-$500 memphis+3
$550-$500 neworleans+6
$330-$300 under 189.5 sea-neworleans
$330-$300 boston+6
$330-$300 over 179.5 hou-sanantonio
$550-$500 utah+5
$550-$500 clippers+9.5
$550-$500 portland-4.5
$330-$300 under 193.5 lakers-portland
$330-$300 under 201.5 atl-goldenst

My one and only nba total of the year!!
$6600-$6000 under 192.5 newjersey-milwaukee

 

[spreadbeater]

Any reason why the under is such a strong play for you tonight?

 

[Alan Palmer]

this is a 35-6 system play since 1998! I really look for a 90-88 type final if we avoid overtime we will have a winnerarty:

 

[Alan Palmer]

$440-$400 cleveland-8.5
$330-$300 under 216 clippers-phoenix

 

[duderinow]

wow, thats a huge bet, I wish you luck man. Think good thoughts.

Duder

 

[BoZZi]

thats real smart....ur average bet is 400 but ur game of the year is for 6000....come on man u know better.

 

[dolphin]

I wish you the best, too, and won't bother discussing the game or your sizing....esp. since you've bet it already.

I would consider a second half hedge if you get a favorable first half, however.

NJ will try to slow down the fh...as usual on the road with Kidd playing. But this might be Redd's last MIL game and the team is in great offensive synch with a pretty healthy crew.

Anyhow, good luck!

 

[kidslick]

alan i believe these teams can only shoot better in the 2nd half

would you think of a hedge could be a great middle also

with 2nd half over


also this line opened up at 197 last night

wish you had that line instead

 

[petre]

this is a 35-6 system play since 1998! I really look for a 90-88 type final if we avoid overtime we will have a winnerarty:

CONGRATS ALAN!!!, happy for your big win***

if you have a moment, the explication of the system?

again, CONGRATS

 

[t3a]

Under?

AP you suck 90-88? , it flew over that total...
j/k GREAT call, I doubt if you got greedy, but that 2H under at 100 was sweet too

congrats on a big score

 

[spreadbeater]

Congrats AP! great call and great system arty:

 

[SunDodger]

What is the System??

 

[Kruser6]

I dont think Alan will be posting until tomorrow. I am pretty sure he is out getting drunk!!

 

[Alan Palmer]

wow thanks for the congrats guys!! I was a little worried when I seen the 2ndhalf total open at 101.5 but it quickly fell to 99 at most spots and I felt better but it was a sweat pretty much the entire way!

the system is simply when milwaukee plays btb nights since 1998 if the bucks scored over 107 and their opponent also played the night before and scored under 97 the under the previous night is now 36-6 so this is a very RARE system play as only 42 times now in the last 7 years has this came up!

congrats to all the winners!

 

[Dubpoet]

Way to cash the Pod total of the year hommie, I always play your pod, ever consider just taking your top plays. We all need action but you are on fire!!



arty:

 

[Tulsa]

arty: arty: arty:

 

[Baker]

the system is simply when milwaukee plays btb nights since 1998 if the bucks scored over 107 and their opponent also played the night before and scored under 97 the under the previous night is now 36-6 so this is a very RARE system play as only 42 times now in the last 7 years has this came up!

Thanks for the explaination (and the winner). It was so obvious I can't believe we all didn't see it. lol...

Are all of your picks based on situational probability?

 

[Alan Palmer]

+$4380 as the rest of the nba pretty much sucked for me but all is good! I appreciate all the comments! with this win combined with the nearly $2600 in ncaa hoops tonight makes it around a 7 dime payday and puts me back on the plus side this hoops season!

 

[Piranha]

Like I said before every time you post a big one you have an excellent win %. Congrats and bring a big one out again soon!

 

[dolphin]

AP - Congratulations.

Now, for some thoughts...naturally I don't know how sophisticated your statistical background is...

You are probably familiar with the term "backfitting"...it pretty much has to do with searching for correlations until you find some that have big deviations from the norm - in this case, deviations from 50-50. Inevitably, some will show, because POSSIBLE correlations will pop up with the same probability of events on a bell curve. It's like flipping 1,000 coins 100 times each. Some coins will be heads 72-28 for example. It says nothing about the next flip of that coin, assuming it is a "fair" coin.

In sports, when you find something that is, say, 35-6...the next move is to ask whether there is a strong case to be made that there is internal logic to the trend of the result. The more arbitrary the cutoff points for making the result as dramatic as possible, the more you should question what you are trying to do.

I could say more, but I hope you receive the thrust of this with the intentions behind it...

Dolphin