plays first seattle +2
+3 -130 diff book
ml +105
alt plays all seattle
sea -2.5 ev
-3 +150
-4 +180
-5.5 +200
-6.5 +225
-7 +260
-8.5 +310
will buy more if den gets first score
You could also say that the Seahawks have not seen a "real quarterback"...just sayin'
Seahawks beat Brees twice this year and i recall Brees beat "real quarterback" Payton Manning in Superbowl XLIV
He gets the ball out faster then anyone in the league .I believe its like 2.8 seconds.
And the reason he gets it out so quickly is because he knows almost instantly where to go with the ball based on pre snap alignment of the defense.[and post snap]
Except the Seahawks dont do anything exotic in there coverage.
They use strictly pressman coverage.
If theres any one team that can matchup with the Broncos personnel its the Seahawks..
The Broncos might be the best in the league at timing pick routes to create separation against man coverage,but even those plays can be defended with the right personnel.
Manning is purely a pocket passer that can be pressured by the right defense.
Denver has faced 2 teams in the top 10 of total defense, the Texans (7) and the Gmen (8).Denver faced 2 teams in the top 10 of passing defense, the Texans (3) and the Gmen (10).
Denver faced 1 team in the top 10 of rushing defense, the Eagles (10).
Seattle faced Drew Brees twice. I would say the Saints O is comparable to Denver's passing attack as they ranked 4th in total O and 2nd is passing O. The Saints faced some damn tough defenses this year, the Panthers, 49ers, Cardinals and the Hawks.
Also, Denver is pretty banged up with Miller and Harris being out. I would like to know more about Knowshon's rib injury.....but he is probably fine, because he does Crossfit.
I think Denver is in for a rude awakening when they face the physicality of the Hawks on both sides of the ball.
I remember 2 specific bowls when everyone said a certain QB cannot be stopped and guess what he was stopped....
think we should also look at Denver's Defense, are they really any good? Especially without Harris, Miller, Moore, and Wolf? We all know that Denver has the best offense and Seattle has the best defense, so the question should be how does Seattle's O and Denver's D matchup?? Do you think Seattle can produce points? Do you think Denver's D can stop Seattle's O?
Denver is 19th in Total D, 27th in Passing D, 7th in Rushing D and Even in T/O's.
Seattle is 17th in Total O, 26th in Passing O, and 4th in Rushing O.
1) The Seahawks are the best D in the league but they have not faced any O close to this. To say Drew Brees and the Saints in Seattle are the same as the Broncos on a neutral field is beyond ludicrous. Seattle at home is not the same team as they are on the road, period.
2) The Chargers did show you how to beat the Broncos but look at what a terrible spot that game was for the Broncos.
a)The Broncos had just come off a stretch of games of SD, KC, NE,KC and then Tennesee. Although KC finished the season poorly, when we beat them the first time they were undefeated at that point. They were playing very well before we demolished them twice and took their will.
b) The Broncos did not need to win that game to secure home field advantage. They knew that there was a good chance that NE would lose to Miami (the line was even for that game) and it was a Thursday night game after a brutal stretch
c) The Chargers who have always been tough under Rivers late in the year, were playing for their lives. This was a do or die game for them. This was the best spot for a let down from this team and they did not play their best game.
why does everyone think Denver has a more balanced team? Seattle has the number one overall defense and, offensively, they ranked 4th in rushing (131 yds/gm) and 5th in points scored (26) while playing in the toughest division in football, defensively. San Francisco ranks 5th in overall defense, Arizona 6th and St Louis 14th. Passing yards and total points are the only edge that I give Denver. Denver had the 4th most fumbles this season while Seattle was first in forced turnovers.
Seattle
17th Total Offense
26th Passing O
4th Rushing O
1st Total Defense
1st Passing D
7th Rushing D
+20 turnover ratio
Denver
1st Total O
1st Passing O
15th Rushing O
19th Total D
27th Passing D
7th Rushing D
Even turnover ratio
Both teams were 4-3 against above 500 teams.
Both teams were 6-2 on the road.
the next set of notes has interesting stats the last few posts carries the most weight in seattle winning
Denver will most likely play its 4-3 defense and probably have a little safety help to stop Lynch. Now, Denvers 2 safeties and 2 CBs (Cromartie/Bailey) had a combined 4 ints this year. No big deal you say? Well, with as much as teams had to throw this year being down, I'd say it is. They are under sized and neither corner likes to tackle or get physical.
If you dig deeper you will find Denver was dead even in turnover ratio...Seattle was +20. No big deal? Well, kinda. Denver scored a lot this year, in case you didnt know. That means teams got the ball back on offense a lot. Now heres where the issue is....lets look at the AFC this year: Just horrific.
Texans
Jags
Oakland x2
SD x3
KC x2
Titans
Then they got the NFC East this year. Philly/Wash/Dallas/Giants. Brutal doesnt even describe it.
Yuck. 13 of Denvers 18 games this year have been against defenses ranked 20th or worse. Of course games vs the broncos have something to do with that. Yet, they still were dead even in turnovers and ranked 19th in total defense. Part understandable with a lot of bend but dont break, big lead defense. Problem arises when you need to make a play and reach down and find nothing.
Now, Denvers route to the SB. SD, a team they had seen twice already and who was basically playing its 5th playoff game and on b2b roadies, and shouldnt have even been in the playoffs. Then, you get a New England team that has become a "running" squad and the main offensive weapon is Julian Edelman. PUUUHLEEEZE
Manning simply cant move. That will obviously be a problem vs this defense. Of course, manning is the king of the quick release, but the AFC defenses were weak this year. Super freakin weak. Dont be surprised if you see Manning go to his second read and then fall to the ground like a cheap hooker who got punched in the stomach. He wants no part of being hit. This also means he will try to squeeze the ball in some tight windows. Not a good idea. Add to that, Peytons long ball is non existent (maybe worse if the weather is bad). His arm strenght and touch have dropped off considerably, and understandably. With the safeties being able to play a little looser, it will make manning think twice able ever throw over 10 yards.
iI'm not gonna bore you with stats you can google. However, Manning had a qb rating of 115 while Wilsons was 101.....but, Denver allowed a qb rating of 84 while Seattle allowed 63....RW will be playing weaker defense than hes used to.....Manning will be playing the best hes seen all season.
Ok. I'm done for now
Seattle +3.5 (-130)
Seattle ML +115
Manning to throw INT before a TD +190
RW O199.5 passing yds -110
RW O1.5 passing tds +130
RW scores a rushing td +300
Lynch O21.5 rushing attempts -105
Lynch O1.5 receptions -125
Golden Tate O45.5 rec yds -110
Doug Baldwin O37.5 rec yds -110
Zach Miller O24.5 rec yds -110
I think Brees averages 16 points a game on the road.
So to hold him 10 under that is even more impressive.
Which reminds me, I forgot to mention Percy Harvin. Impossible to plan for simply because hes an unknown factor. He will play, and looked up to game speed vs NO, but took 2 brutal hits and sent the human pretzel packin. I think Seattle wants to use him, but just being on the field as the slot receiver is gonna get attention and force the LBs to pay attention to him when he goes in motion. That should be enough to allow Tate/Baldwin and Kearse a little more freedom, not to mention clearing out the box for RW to scramble. I actually think hes gonna have a big game. Hes the best receiver the hawks got if he can stay healthy.
No chance he walks in, he was standing just inside the 20 yard line, 2 Seattle players were on the 10 yard line with one player looking right at him, and another Seattle player on the 7 yard line, 3 Seattle players between him and a TD.
And you under-rating how fast Seattle's defense is, before the ball could of gotten to him the defense would of closed and been to the 15 yard line, he might have gained 5 to 7 yards on the play, unless he breaks some tackles which is possible but not likely with 2 players there and a 3rd just behind them.
How many dumb idiots say Seattle is a different team on the road and they don't have the 12th man . Seattle was 6-2 on the road same as Denver . Denver defense is not thr same on the road as they allow Dallas 48, colts 39, giants 23, patriots 34, chiefs 28. Amen! Also, Denvers schedule was easy to say the least.
Sea’s D is #1 in scoring, yards per game, yards per play, pass yards per attempt in AWAY games.
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stat/scoring-defense-category
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stat/total-defense-category
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-yards-per-pass-attempt
Their D might be "different" on the road, and not quite as good, but they still are the best D in the league on the road..
Hes been upright because of the defensive schemes. Manning is the least blitzed QB in the league for a reason. Hes a master of check downs to his 3rd and 4th reads. Seattle is so good in their secondary that Seattle will be able to come with some blitz packages which will suit Seattle against a statue in the pocket. We understand that Denver has weapons but you need to also understand that Seattles defensive packages arent going to be anything close to what the Patriots and Chargers used. This is elementary.
Let me count all the ways THE FACTS say Seattle has a huge edge.
First, Seattle has a huge edge in the single most important stat which has the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value going forward, Fact.
Seattle 38
Denver 29, in the regular season.
Playoffs, Seattle 14.75..............Denver 1.1...............Seattle's dominace just got bigger in the playoffs and they did it against opponents who were far batter than the 2 opponents Denver played. FACT
Yards per point, which has the 2cd highest prediction value going forward.
Favors Seattle in the regular season by a good amount
Playoffs......................................
Seattle needed 88.9 yards to score a TD.................Denver 121.8
Offense of Seattle far more efficient than Denver's.
Seattle's opp needed 156.8 yards to score a TD
Denver's opp needed only 122.5 yards to score a TD.
Defense of Seattle way more efficient.
Seattle 88.9-156.8 = a difference of 67.9
Denver 121.8-122.5 = .7
And Seattle did that against opp that were better than the opp Denver played, just the facts, not my opinion.
Huge edge to Seattle based on the 2cd highest predictive value going forward.
And because efficiency wins in sports, not volume stats like yards passing, ...............................The facts are, there's no evidence that Denver should even be considered in this game.
You can voice your OPINIONS or follow the FACTS, it leads straight to Seattle.
High flying sexy offenses look great but rarely win SB's.
Seattle is much better at outplaying their opponents in passing effecincy than Denver.
Denver out-played their 2 playoff opponents in QBPR by only an ave per game of +1.1
Seattle by +14.75
And Seattle's 2 opponents were far better in QBPR differential than Denver's 2 opp.
Seattle has played much better throughout the playoffs than Denver, but the close scores which can be the product of timing luck, have people fooled.
Experience does not win in SB's and rarely covers, let's add up the facts.......................
Brady in his 1st SB VS Warner and the SB champ Rams of just 2 years earlier, 1st time team and QB wins.
Jake Delhome and the 1st timer Panthers VS SB winning Pats just 2 years earlier, Panthers cover.
Mcnabb and the 1st time eagles VS Brady and the defending SB Champs and 2 time champs, 1st time team covers.
Eli and the 1st time Gaints VS the 3 time SB winners, 1st time team wins and covers.
Zona a 1st time team VS Pitt a SB winners just 3 years earlier, 1st time team covers.
Brees and the Saints 1st time SB team VS Manning and Colts SB champs just 3 years earlier, 1st time team wins and covers.
Rodgers and 1st time Packers VS 2 time SB winners Big Ben and Pitt , 1st time team wins and covers.
In the 2 playoff games, Wilson and his offense needed 88.9 yards to score a TD.
Manning and his high power, one of the greatest offenses in history needed 121.8 yards to score a TD.
Seahawks.........................................
High flying offensive Teams like Denver, the masses love'em but they don't win SB'S with weak defenses.
Denver's defense ranked 32cd in a 32 team league in ave gain per pass att.
And they got torched by Henne and the Jags
Denver's play on the field is no-where as good near the final scores of their games would indicate, they are the most over-valued team at this point then I've ever seen and not surprising they've failed to cover their past 2 games.....................................................
Denver's defense has the single worst performance of the season thus far giving-up 11.7 yds per pass to Romo. They have 3 of the worst 30 performances this season after 6 weeks, in other words half their games are the worst defensive performances in the league.
Jags ave 5.1 yards but gained 6.6 yards per play VS Denver's league worst defense, a full 1.5 yds better than their ave.
Jags have the single worst performance in the league and some of the worst performaces overall, but performed well VS Denver.
Big favorites like Denver don't win SB'S unless they are statsitically strong teams which Denver is far, far from
Seattle's defense has given-up less than 5 yards per pass att, something very few defenses have ever done in history.
Seattle's defense has given-up less than 5 yards per pass att, something very few defenses have ever done in history.
You want offensive efficiency ?
Based on the playoff games.
Denver needs to gain 17.4 yards to score 1 point. Denver scored 50 points but needed 870 yards to do it.
Seattle needs to gain 12.7 yards to score 1 point. Seattle scored 46 points but only needed 585 yards to do it.
Seattle's offense is much more efficient.
Denver's opponents needed to gain 17.5 yards to score 1 point.
Seattle's opponents needed to gain 22.4 yards to score 1 point.
Not only is Seattle offense more efficient so is Seattle's defense.
Denver 17.4 - 17.5 = .1
Seattle 12.7 - 22.4 = 9.7
Seattle needs to gain far fewer yards to score each point.
In the past 7 SB's the better defensive team in Defensive Passer Rating throughout the playoffs is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with at least a 6.5 pt diff.
The remaining 2 teams were both under a 2 pt diff and went 1-1.
Offense has not ruled in the past 2 years.
Last year the 9ers were the better defense in most of the regular season but not even remotely close in the playoffs and down the stretch run
Defensive Passer Rating in playoffs...........................
Ravens 70.13
9ers 103.15
Denver's defense did not shut-down either QB in the playoffs, they both played better against Denver's defense than their regular season averages.
It took Denver's opp 122.5 yards to score TD against Denver's defense.
It took Seattle's opp 156.8 yds to score a TD.
Seattle's opp needed just 98.7 yards to score a TD in the regular season but against Seattle's great defense they needed a whopping 58.1 yards more to score the same TD.
Denver's opp needed 104.13 yards to score a TD in the regular season, they needed just 18.37 yards more to score the same TD against Denver's mediocre defense.
58.1 TO 18.37 speaks volumes about those 2 teams.
It took 120.82 yards to score a TD against SD and Pats in regular season. It took Denver 121.8 yards to score they same TD, Denver could not score against those defenses any easier than all the other teams could. Denver needed 1 additional yard to score a TD.
It took 121.59 yards to score a TD against 9ers and Saints, it took Seattle just 88.9 yards to score a TD against those 2 teams. Seattle needed a whopping 32.69 yards fewer to score the same TD.
32.69 TO 1 speaks volumes about these 2 teams.
You can use guess work or you can look at the facts which have high predictive value going forward.
There's no easy games in the NFL but the right side is easy to call.
Seattle played Bree's and Kap who's QBPR averaged 98.15 between them.
Denver played Rivers and Brady, who's QBPR averaged 96.4.
Seattle played the better QB's by a small amount.
How'd the defenses do against these QB'S ?
Seattle's defensive Passer Rating --- 71.35
Denver --- 104.85
Seattle's defense held the opposing QB's to almost 27 pts below their regular season ave.
Rivers and Brady who were not as good as the QB's Seattle faced played better against Denver's defense then they did against the defense's they faced all season.
here's what Seattle backers are forgetting and no one is talking about: Denver's last 5 games points allowed: 20, 13, 14, 17, 16. three of these games were vs. SD and NE, whose offenses are more potent, higher scoring O's than Seattle. Caroll better come up with one hell of a game plan if he wants to keep up with Denver through 4 quarters 'cause their D has gelled at the right time.
Not sure off the top but I do know the team with the better defense has won 39 out of 47 SB's.
Who's Denver beat convincingly on the road ?
KC by 7 is it, lost to Pats and Colts
Seattle beat Zona and Panthers both who are better than KC.
Seattle 10-2 ATS past 12 road games.
Denver 8-4 ATS.
Manning is Manning but in the AFC championship game against the Steelers, the Steelers disguised their schemes, stunted and sent guys off the corner. The Steelers played a lot of man coverage as they controlled him throughout the game. This Seattle defense has the personnel to do thw same which many defenses cant afford to do against a Manning lead offense. Fellas talk about Seattles ability to only rush four but Im not buying that. We will see the LB's pressure. Seattles LB's are one of the few to play so close to the line and I think theyll present the matchup Seattle needs to get to Manning. Mannings passing routes are also precise.....hes like Raymond Babbitt on the field, if timing breaks down, he has a fukking fit. Seattles corners are big and physical, they can hit the receivers at the line to disrupt timing routes. Seattles secondary matches up very well with Denvers receivers and their physical nature wont be any different than it was this season
The Broncos were 4th in the league in fumbles this season
+3 -130 diff book
ml +105
alt plays all seattle
sea -2.5 ev
-3 +150
-4 +180
-5.5 +200
-6.5 +225
-7 +260
-8.5 +310
will buy more if den gets first score
You could also say that the Seahawks have not seen a "real quarterback"...just sayin'
Seahawks beat Brees twice this year and i recall Brees beat "real quarterback" Payton Manning in Superbowl XLIV
He gets the ball out faster then anyone in the league .I believe its like 2.8 seconds.
And the reason he gets it out so quickly is because he knows almost instantly where to go with the ball based on pre snap alignment of the defense.[and post snap]
Except the Seahawks dont do anything exotic in there coverage.
They use strictly pressman coverage.
If theres any one team that can matchup with the Broncos personnel its the Seahawks..
The Broncos might be the best in the league at timing pick routes to create separation against man coverage,but even those plays can be defended with the right personnel.
Manning is purely a pocket passer that can be pressured by the right defense.
Denver has faced 2 teams in the top 10 of total defense, the Texans (7) and the Gmen (8).Denver faced 2 teams in the top 10 of passing defense, the Texans (3) and the Gmen (10).
Denver faced 1 team in the top 10 of rushing defense, the Eagles (10).
Seattle faced Drew Brees twice. I would say the Saints O is comparable to Denver's passing attack as they ranked 4th in total O and 2nd is passing O. The Saints faced some damn tough defenses this year, the Panthers, 49ers, Cardinals and the Hawks.
Also, Denver is pretty banged up with Miller and Harris being out. I would like to know more about Knowshon's rib injury.....but he is probably fine, because he does Crossfit.
I think Denver is in for a rude awakening when they face the physicality of the Hawks on both sides of the ball.
I remember 2 specific bowls when everyone said a certain QB cannot be stopped and guess what he was stopped....
think we should also look at Denver's Defense, are they really any good? Especially without Harris, Miller, Moore, and Wolf? We all know that Denver has the best offense and Seattle has the best defense, so the question should be how does Seattle's O and Denver's D matchup?? Do you think Seattle can produce points? Do you think Denver's D can stop Seattle's O?
Denver is 19th in Total D, 27th in Passing D, 7th in Rushing D and Even in T/O's.
Seattle is 17th in Total O, 26th in Passing O, and 4th in Rushing O.
1) The Seahawks are the best D in the league but they have not faced any O close to this. To say Drew Brees and the Saints in Seattle are the same as the Broncos on a neutral field is beyond ludicrous. Seattle at home is not the same team as they are on the road, period.
2) The Chargers did show you how to beat the Broncos but look at what a terrible spot that game was for the Broncos.
a)The Broncos had just come off a stretch of games of SD, KC, NE,KC and then Tennesee. Although KC finished the season poorly, when we beat them the first time they were undefeated at that point. They were playing very well before we demolished them twice and took their will.
b) The Broncos did not need to win that game to secure home field advantage. They knew that there was a good chance that NE would lose to Miami (the line was even for that game) and it was a Thursday night game after a brutal stretch
c) The Chargers who have always been tough under Rivers late in the year, were playing for their lives. This was a do or die game for them. This was the best spot for a let down from this team and they did not play their best game.
why does everyone think Denver has a more balanced team? Seattle has the number one overall defense and, offensively, they ranked 4th in rushing (131 yds/gm) and 5th in points scored (26) while playing in the toughest division in football, defensively. San Francisco ranks 5th in overall defense, Arizona 6th and St Louis 14th. Passing yards and total points are the only edge that I give Denver. Denver had the 4th most fumbles this season while Seattle was first in forced turnovers.
Seattle
17th Total Offense
26th Passing O
4th Rushing O
1st Total Defense
1st Passing D
7th Rushing D
+20 turnover ratio
Denver
1st Total O
1st Passing O
15th Rushing O
19th Total D
27th Passing D
7th Rushing D
Even turnover ratio
Both teams were 4-3 against above 500 teams.
Both teams were 6-2 on the road.
the next set of notes has interesting stats the last few posts carries the most weight in seattle winning
Denver will most likely play its 4-3 defense and probably have a little safety help to stop Lynch. Now, Denvers 2 safeties and 2 CBs (Cromartie/Bailey) had a combined 4 ints this year. No big deal you say? Well, with as much as teams had to throw this year being down, I'd say it is. They are under sized and neither corner likes to tackle or get physical.
If you dig deeper you will find Denver was dead even in turnover ratio...Seattle was +20. No big deal? Well, kinda. Denver scored a lot this year, in case you didnt know. That means teams got the ball back on offense a lot. Now heres where the issue is....lets look at the AFC this year: Just horrific.
Texans
Jags
Oakland x2
SD x3
KC x2
Titans
Then they got the NFC East this year. Philly/Wash/Dallas/Giants. Brutal doesnt even describe it.
Yuck. 13 of Denvers 18 games this year have been against defenses ranked 20th or worse. Of course games vs the broncos have something to do with that. Yet, they still were dead even in turnovers and ranked 19th in total defense. Part understandable with a lot of bend but dont break, big lead defense. Problem arises when you need to make a play and reach down and find nothing.
Now, Denvers route to the SB. SD, a team they had seen twice already and who was basically playing its 5th playoff game and on b2b roadies, and shouldnt have even been in the playoffs. Then, you get a New England team that has become a "running" squad and the main offensive weapon is Julian Edelman. PUUUHLEEEZE
Manning simply cant move. That will obviously be a problem vs this defense. Of course, manning is the king of the quick release, but the AFC defenses were weak this year. Super freakin weak. Dont be surprised if you see Manning go to his second read and then fall to the ground like a cheap hooker who got punched in the stomach. He wants no part of being hit. This also means he will try to squeeze the ball in some tight windows. Not a good idea. Add to that, Peytons long ball is non existent (maybe worse if the weather is bad). His arm strenght and touch have dropped off considerably, and understandably. With the safeties being able to play a little looser, it will make manning think twice able ever throw over 10 yards.
iI'm not gonna bore you with stats you can google. However, Manning had a qb rating of 115 while Wilsons was 101.....but, Denver allowed a qb rating of 84 while Seattle allowed 63....RW will be playing weaker defense than hes used to.....Manning will be playing the best hes seen all season.
Ok. I'm done for now
Seattle +3.5 (-130)
Seattle ML +115
Manning to throw INT before a TD +190
RW O199.5 passing yds -110
RW O1.5 passing tds +130
RW scores a rushing td +300
Lynch O21.5 rushing attempts -105
Lynch O1.5 receptions -125
Golden Tate O45.5 rec yds -110
Doug Baldwin O37.5 rec yds -110
Zach Miller O24.5 rec yds -110
I think Brees averages 16 points a game on the road.
So to hold him 10 under that is even more impressive.
Which reminds me, I forgot to mention Percy Harvin. Impossible to plan for simply because hes an unknown factor. He will play, and looked up to game speed vs NO, but took 2 brutal hits and sent the human pretzel packin. I think Seattle wants to use him, but just being on the field as the slot receiver is gonna get attention and force the LBs to pay attention to him when he goes in motion. That should be enough to allow Tate/Baldwin and Kearse a little more freedom, not to mention clearing out the box for RW to scramble. I actually think hes gonna have a big game. Hes the best receiver the hawks got if he can stay healthy.
No chance he walks in, he was standing just inside the 20 yard line, 2 Seattle players were on the 10 yard line with one player looking right at him, and another Seattle player on the 7 yard line, 3 Seattle players between him and a TD.
And you under-rating how fast Seattle's defense is, before the ball could of gotten to him the defense would of closed and been to the 15 yard line, he might have gained 5 to 7 yards on the play, unless he breaks some tackles which is possible but not likely with 2 players there and a 3rd just behind them.
How many dumb idiots say Seattle is a different team on the road and they don't have the 12th man . Seattle was 6-2 on the road same as Denver . Denver defense is not thr same on the road as they allow Dallas 48, colts 39, giants 23, patriots 34, chiefs 28. Amen! Also, Denvers schedule was easy to say the least.
Sea’s D is #1 in scoring, yards per game, yards per play, pass yards per attempt in AWAY games.
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stat/scoring-defense-category
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stat/total-defense-category
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-yards-per-pass-attempt
Their D might be "different" on the road, and not quite as good, but they still are the best D in the league on the road..
Hes been upright because of the defensive schemes. Manning is the least blitzed QB in the league for a reason. Hes a master of check downs to his 3rd and 4th reads. Seattle is so good in their secondary that Seattle will be able to come with some blitz packages which will suit Seattle against a statue in the pocket. We understand that Denver has weapons but you need to also understand that Seattles defensive packages arent going to be anything close to what the Patriots and Chargers used. This is elementary.
Let me count all the ways THE FACTS say Seattle has a huge edge.
First, Seattle has a huge edge in the single most important stat which has the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value going forward, Fact.
Seattle 38
Denver 29, in the regular season.
Playoffs, Seattle 14.75..............Denver 1.1...............Seattle's dominace just got bigger in the playoffs and they did it against opponents who were far batter than the 2 opponents Denver played. FACT
Yards per point, which has the 2cd highest prediction value going forward.
Favors Seattle in the regular season by a good amount
Playoffs......................................
Seattle needed 88.9 yards to score a TD.................Denver 121.8
Offense of Seattle far more efficient than Denver's.
Seattle's opp needed 156.8 yards to score a TD
Denver's opp needed only 122.5 yards to score a TD.
Defense of Seattle way more efficient.
Seattle 88.9-156.8 = a difference of 67.9
Denver 121.8-122.5 = .7
And Seattle did that against opp that were better than the opp Denver played, just the facts, not my opinion.
Huge edge to Seattle based on the 2cd highest predictive value going forward.
And because efficiency wins in sports, not volume stats like yards passing, ...............................The facts are, there's no evidence that Denver should even be considered in this game.
You can voice your OPINIONS or follow the FACTS, it leads straight to Seattle.
High flying sexy offenses look great but rarely win SB's.
Seattle is much better at outplaying their opponents in passing effecincy than Denver.
Denver out-played their 2 playoff opponents in QBPR by only an ave per game of +1.1
Seattle by +14.75
And Seattle's 2 opponents were far better in QBPR differential than Denver's 2 opp.
Seattle has played much better throughout the playoffs than Denver, but the close scores which can be the product of timing luck, have people fooled.
Experience does not win in SB's and rarely covers, let's add up the facts.......................
Brady in his 1st SB VS Warner and the SB champ Rams of just 2 years earlier, 1st time team and QB wins.
Jake Delhome and the 1st timer Panthers VS SB winning Pats just 2 years earlier, Panthers cover.
Mcnabb and the 1st time eagles VS Brady and the defending SB Champs and 2 time champs, 1st time team covers.
Eli and the 1st time Gaints VS the 3 time SB winners, 1st time team wins and covers.
Zona a 1st time team VS Pitt a SB winners just 3 years earlier, 1st time team covers.
Brees and the Saints 1st time SB team VS Manning and Colts SB champs just 3 years earlier, 1st time team wins and covers.
Rodgers and 1st time Packers VS 2 time SB winners Big Ben and Pitt , 1st time team wins and covers.
In the 2 playoff games, Wilson and his offense needed 88.9 yards to score a TD.
Manning and his high power, one of the greatest offenses in history needed 121.8 yards to score a TD.
Seahawks.........................................
High flying offensive Teams like Denver, the masses love'em but they don't win SB'S with weak defenses.
Denver's defense ranked 32cd in a 32 team league in ave gain per pass att.
And they got torched by Henne and the Jags
Denver's play on the field is no-where as good near the final scores of their games would indicate, they are the most over-valued team at this point then I've ever seen and not surprising they've failed to cover their past 2 games.....................................................
Denver's defense has the single worst performance of the season thus far giving-up 11.7 yds per pass to Romo. They have 3 of the worst 30 performances this season after 6 weeks, in other words half their games are the worst defensive performances in the league.
Jags ave 5.1 yards but gained 6.6 yards per play VS Denver's league worst defense, a full 1.5 yds better than their ave.
Jags have the single worst performance in the league and some of the worst performaces overall, but performed well VS Denver.
Big favorites like Denver don't win SB'S unless they are statsitically strong teams which Denver is far, far from
Seattle's defense has given-up less than 5 yards per pass att, something very few defenses have ever done in history.
Seattle's defense has given-up less than 5 yards per pass att, something very few defenses have ever done in history.
You want offensive efficiency ?
Based on the playoff games.
Denver needs to gain 17.4 yards to score 1 point. Denver scored 50 points but needed 870 yards to do it.
Seattle needs to gain 12.7 yards to score 1 point. Seattle scored 46 points but only needed 585 yards to do it.
Seattle's offense is much more efficient.
Denver's opponents needed to gain 17.5 yards to score 1 point.
Seattle's opponents needed to gain 22.4 yards to score 1 point.
Not only is Seattle offense more efficient so is Seattle's defense.
Denver 17.4 - 17.5 = .1
Seattle 12.7 - 22.4 = 9.7
Seattle needs to gain far fewer yards to score each point.
In the past 7 SB's the better defensive team in Defensive Passer Rating throughout the playoffs is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with at least a 6.5 pt diff.
The remaining 2 teams were both under a 2 pt diff and went 1-1.
Offense has not ruled in the past 2 years.
Last year the 9ers were the better defense in most of the regular season but not even remotely close in the playoffs and down the stretch run
Defensive Passer Rating in playoffs...........................
Ravens 70.13
9ers 103.15
Denver's defense did not shut-down either QB in the playoffs, they both played better against Denver's defense than their regular season averages.
It took Denver's opp 122.5 yards to score TD against Denver's defense.
It took Seattle's opp 156.8 yds to score a TD.
Seattle's opp needed just 98.7 yards to score a TD in the regular season but against Seattle's great defense they needed a whopping 58.1 yards more to score the same TD.
Denver's opp needed 104.13 yards to score a TD in the regular season, they needed just 18.37 yards more to score the same TD against Denver's mediocre defense.
58.1 TO 18.37 speaks volumes about those 2 teams.
It took 120.82 yards to score a TD against SD and Pats in regular season. It took Denver 121.8 yards to score they same TD, Denver could not score against those defenses any easier than all the other teams could. Denver needed 1 additional yard to score a TD.
It took 121.59 yards to score a TD against 9ers and Saints, it took Seattle just 88.9 yards to score a TD against those 2 teams. Seattle needed a whopping 32.69 yards fewer to score the same TD.
32.69 TO 1 speaks volumes about these 2 teams.
You can use guess work or you can look at the facts which have high predictive value going forward.
There's no easy games in the NFL but the right side is easy to call.
Seattle played Bree's and Kap who's QBPR averaged 98.15 between them.
Denver played Rivers and Brady, who's QBPR averaged 96.4.
Seattle played the better QB's by a small amount.
How'd the defenses do against these QB'S ?
Seattle's defensive Passer Rating --- 71.35
Denver --- 104.85
Seattle's defense held the opposing QB's to almost 27 pts below their regular season ave.
Rivers and Brady who were not as good as the QB's Seattle faced played better against Denver's defense then they did against the defense's they faced all season.
here's what Seattle backers are forgetting and no one is talking about: Denver's last 5 games points allowed: 20, 13, 14, 17, 16. three of these games were vs. SD and NE, whose offenses are more potent, higher scoring O's than Seattle. Caroll better come up with one hell of a game plan if he wants to keep up with Denver through 4 quarters 'cause their D has gelled at the right time.
Not sure off the top but I do know the team with the better defense has won 39 out of 47 SB's.
Who's Denver beat convincingly on the road ?
KC by 7 is it, lost to Pats and Colts
Seattle beat Zona and Panthers both who are better than KC.
Seattle 10-2 ATS past 12 road games.
Denver 8-4 ATS.
Manning is Manning but in the AFC championship game against the Steelers, the Steelers disguised their schemes, stunted and sent guys off the corner. The Steelers played a lot of man coverage as they controlled him throughout the game. This Seattle defense has the personnel to do thw same which many defenses cant afford to do against a Manning lead offense. Fellas talk about Seattles ability to only rush four but Im not buying that. We will see the LB's pressure. Seattles LB's are one of the few to play so close to the line and I think theyll present the matchup Seattle needs to get to Manning. Mannings passing routes are also precise.....hes like Raymond Babbitt on the field, if timing breaks down, he has a fukking fit. Seattles corners are big and physical, they can hit the receivers at the line to disrupt timing routes. Seattles secondary matches up very well with Denvers receivers and their physical nature wont be any different than it was this season
The Broncos were 4th in the league in fumbles this season
