My play of the MONTH

[fighter654]

I know I'm not a major capper here but have been posting here and there.

I follow a couple of random teams very closely and I've seen a lot of Rhode Island and George Washington games.

-4.5 is a GIFT from Vegas. I'd lock it in right now. It's moved to -5.5 at some places already. I set this line at 13, meaning, I would have played it up until then.

Rhode Island has beaten Penn State played Nova, Northwestern, Oklahoma St., Providence, Duke, St. Joe's and Xavier TIGHT.

They have lost to Northwestern, Xavier, and Providence by a COMBINED three points total. They lost by 6 to Ok State in a game that was tied with 3:30 to go. I saw the game, it very well could have went the other way. They played Duke to 3. They were winning 79-77 until a foul with :19 seconds to go in the game put the game into Duke's hands. Lost to a strong St. Joe's team in OT. This team's record at 12-7 is not indicitive on how good of a team they are. More importantly, they are 1-3 in the conference coming off a bad bad loss to Richmond. THE TEAM NEEDS THIS VICTORY.

GWU on the other hand is team that is young and I can see them having a major letdown after blowing a huge lead to dayton in the closing minutes. I don't believe the team has the ability to put up the points that URI can. The o/u in this game is 145.5 so URI is expected to put up 75 or so points. GWU has only gone above 70 four times this season. However, more importantly, this is a team that can come up and just put up bricks. They've had 2 47 points games and a 48 point game. I remember watching as they put up only 18 points at halftime against Hawaii.

Simply, URI is going to come out fired up. They are going to put a lot of points on GWU and I just can't see GWU matching. I'm expecting a 78-56 type game.

 

[hannowsky77]

nice info will keep this in mind...uri hasnt been good to me this year...maybe it will change tomorrow

 

[fighter654]

URI has messed up a few Unders for me this year. Georgetown has been very very good to me until Vegas caught on to their suckiness.

 

[Swift456]

Looks like a good one.......Gonna check it out.....

I've been reeling like a horkiff lately

 

[MikRetSam]

on it, tks

 

[fighter654]

haha I feel a lot of pressure right now because this is the first pick I've really stuck my neck out on but the more i research it, the more I come to the same conclusion... GWU is not going to be able to put up the points that URI will

Edit: I want to put the two teams schedules side by side...

URI
November 14 Brown W 76-74 1-0
November 16 at No. 5 Duke L 82-79 1-1
November 20 at Monmouth W 85-62 2-1
November 22 Virginia Commonwealth W 92-86 3-1
November 25 Hartford W 94-72 4-1
November 28 vs. Penn State W 77-72 5-1
November 29 vs. No. 22 Villanova* L 78-65 5-2
December 3 at Northeastern W 85-72 6-2
December 6 at Providence L 66-65 6-3
December 9 New Hampshire W 88-56 7-3
December 13 Central Connecticut State W 77-69 8-3
December 20 vs. Oklahoma State L 86-82 8-4
December 30 at Fairleigh Dickinson W 95-80 9-4
January 3 Akron W 79-50 10-4
January 6 at Toledo W 86-77 11-4
January 10 at Saint Joseph's L 92-86 11-5 (0-1)
January 15 No. 16 Xavier L 67-65 11-6 (0-2)
January 18 Fordham W 98-67 12-6 (1-2)
January 21 at Richmond L 78-75 12-7 (1-3)

GWU
November 14 at Boston University W 63-58 1-0
November 19 Binghamton W 71-57 2-0
November 22 at Auburn L 83-71 2-1
November 26 UMBC W 70-64 3-1
December 7 vs. Maryland* L 76-53 3-2
December 13 Harvard W 78-63 4-2
December 17 American University W 63-50 5-2
December 23 at Sacramento State W 59-47 6-2
December 27 vs. Vermont* L 83-72 6-3
December 30 at Hawaii L 73-47 6-4
December 30 vs. Coppin State L 59-53 6-5
January 3 at Longwood L 80-78 6-6
January 10 Richmond L 60-48 6-7 (0-1)
January 14 at Duquesne L 88-83 6-8 (0-2)
January 17 at Saint Louis L 63-59 6-9 (0-3)
January 22 Dayton L 63-61 6-10 (0-4)

 

[fighter654]

Also, their only common opponent Richmond, New Hampshire lost a nail biter at the wire. Richmond smashed GWU when they played. It was 34-14 at half. I'd argue that New Hampshire has a better offense than Richmond as well. It was 37-14 w/15 to go and I think Richmond just packed it in.

 

[HVP45]

RI 1-11 ATS the last 12 meetings. That's a pretty crazy trend there

 

[Rude]

I hate to say it, but Games Of The Month and L*cks are a huge fade alert around these parts!

:smoking:

 

[fighter654]

Rude- Fade it or Play it, it's all the same to me. I love posting here because either way people offer constructive criticism.

HVP45-
Good point but these two teams, probably more than any other two teams in the A-10, have seen the most turnover of players from the previous year. These are whole new squads so I'm not too sure how much the trends will help you.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

I generate my own power numbers so that is always step 1 for me. If a line is off I go in and take a closer look, see if there are injuries and so on. While I don't have them as being 13 points better like you do on the road, I did have them as about 8 point chalks so there is some potential value IMO. The problem for me is GW has covered the spread 9 consecutive times! You have to go back to the 2002 season to find a game where RI was able to cash a ticket against this club. On top of that GW seems to have turned it around of late and been very competitive. Yeah they lost to Dayton but that was a hell of a game they played against arguably the 2nd best team in the conference. While GW is playing better, 3 straight covers, RI has only covered 1 in their last 5 games. That's not counting the 9 straight against GW I mentioned prior.

I don't know, I still might play the game, I just don't get a good feeling here for some reason. Good luck to you and anyone else that does play it, right now it's a toss up for me. If I do play it I will probably bite the bullet and play them on the money line. Might be another one of those games where RI finds a way to win but once again can't cover the spread.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Alright it's official, I'm on the game with you though I laid the 220 at Greek and played them on the money line instead. I can't pass up a Game of the Month, hope you're right sir.

 

[fighter654]

:think: Agreed, lol playing it to 13 would have been a stretch and the numbers definitely don't point to that. However, I just can't see this game being close.

 

[Rude]

The NCAA BB boys checked it out .. and they agree with your play. We are coming along for the ride!

Rhode Island -5.5 -110

 

[fighter654]

I think the trends pointing against URI is what leaves the line so attractive. GWU has three straight covers to URI 1-5. However, I see the Dayton game differently. GWU is really susceptible to laying major duds as they did in Hawaii and Coppin St. in the tournament. URI is a middle-of-the-pack A-10 team that is better than their record would indicate.
It's going to be hard for GWU to get up for this game. Just think, it was the 17-2 Dayton team that was probably circled on GWU's calender, not a deceptive 12-7 Rhode Island. I can see them really let down after blowing that huge lead against Dayton even though I'm sure they have coaches in their ears screaming that URI is better than their record.

Also, we gambling degenerates forget - It's hard to say that GWU is on a "hot streak". Yes, they've covered their last 5 games but they are SU 0-8 in its last 8 games. But how does this team feel after giving up an 8 point lead in the second half to lose the game? I doubt they feel "on fire". If gamblers can't make money off a team that beat PSU and almost beat Duke, OK St., Providence, Xavier, and St. Joe's (the two toughest Conference teams) and is only laying -4.5 to a team that is 0-8 SU, how can we even make money at all?

 

[papicker]

i agree seems like a good spot for uri who is better then there 1-3 conference record

 

[What'sthegoodword]

This is an intriguing game to me as well. I also had this around 9 on my #'s....checking out a little more on any injury info, but I believe this is a sure play for me....just have to weight the play.

BOL!

GW

 

[What'sthegoodword]

checking out a little more on any injury info.... and now I am hearing that G Cothran(14ppg) and James (9ppg) are both questionable for RI. Neither played in their last game against Richmond.
Anyone know anything else about this?

 

[absolute59]

from this morning's Providence Journal

The half-dozen close losses are not URI’s only problem. After being healthy all season, the Rams are now being hit by the injury bug. Keith Cothran and Delroy James missed the Richmond game Wednesday, but felt they would be back today. That might not happen. Coach Jim Baron reported that Cothran, who has a knee problem, is unlikely to play.

“He hasn’t been able to practice at all,” Baron said.

James is questionable.

“He’s done some light practicing. We’ll have to see with him,” Baron said.

What’s more, backup point guard Stevie Mejia injured a knee in practice Friday and also is questionable. If Cothran does not play, it is likely Lamonte Ulmer will start in his place, as he did at Richmond

In light of this I am going to stay away from this game but GL

 

[homedawg]

it's never good laying points on the road, but you would thin r. isle would be the play. they rely a little too much on shooting, and being on the road, could make it difficult to play. GWU is pretty bad though. Going to be a close one, hopefully you can pull out the winner