My picks for Wildcard Weekend

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I've had excellent luck since joining this message board. The picks that I've posted for the college Bowl games went 5-1. I was actually 7-2, but never posted my Ohio State, Wisconson and Pitt picks. I won on Oregon State, Tennessee, Michigan, Virginia Tech and USC. My only loss was Cal. So anyway, I thought I'd share my NFL predictions, in case my string of luck continues.

Pick 1: St. Louis +4 over Seattle

Since this game is on turf, I have to go with the Rams. When was the last time Seattle won ATS on turf? It was 4 weeks ago at Minn. In their last 10 games, they're 2-8 ATS, and 0-6 ATS at home. Their defense has given up 26 points to a Vick-less Atlanta, 21 points at home to Arizona, 37 at the Jets (to a rag-arm quarterback) and 43 points at home to Dallas. St. Louis will pound Jackson, and then go over the top with play-action. The only caution here is Ram turnovers. I'm betting that they finally take care of the ball.

St. Louis 34, Seattle 24

Pick 2: San Diego -6.5 over NYJ

Did you know that San Diego is 14-1-1 ATS this year? Their only loss? You guessed it. Anyway, San Diego has a great run defense. And with Pennington's shoulder problems, they're going to need a consistent running game for their receivers to get separation so that Pennington can lob the ball in there. I can't see this happening. SD has given up some passing yards this year, but Pennington's injured arm is the weakest they've seen. Plus, Martin is getting old and may get worn out early. If SD can just hold the Jets to an average rushing game, the game is theirs. The caution here is that the Jets defense completely shuts down SD's entire offense. But with Abraham not being 100%, it shouldn't happen. Brees, please, don't choke 'till next week.

San Diego 32, Jets 13

Pick 3: Denver +10 over Indy

Shanahan's a smart guy. He won't allow a repeat performance of last year. He's going to pound Droughns all day long. He'll keep Indy's offense off the field. The faster Indy scores early, the longer their defense will be on the field. This is Indy's Achilles heel. They score too fast. Their defense gets tired and allows big numbers. Their defense allows 95 more yards per game than Denver's. Meanwhile, their offense only outgains Denver's by 10 yards. Those aren't exact numbers, but close. Denver, in my opinion, is the most underrated team in the playoffs. When they want to play, they can play with anybody in the league. One more thing: Name the teams that Indy has beaten by more than 10 points this year: Green Bay (3rd game of the year), Oakland, Houston, Chicago, Detroit and Tennessee twice. None of these defenses can hold a candle to Denver's. Caution: Plummer, 'nuff said?

Indianapolis 28, Denver 27

Pick 4: Green Bay -6 over Minnesota

This is the toughest one for me. Minnesota's been favored in their last 7 games. They've covered exactly once (to Jacksonville). They backed into the playoffs by losing 4 of 5 outright (and only managed to beat Detroit by a point). Green Bay's playing much better than Minnesota . Over the past month or so, Minnesota just might be the worst team in the league (well OK, there's San Fran but..). Culpepper to Moss is always dangerous, but not as effective on grass. The problem is that with these two divisional rivals, all of the stats and analysis go out the window. Anything can happen. And unfortunately for Green Bay, the weather will be relatively warm. But I think Favre hears the fat lady singing, and with his pride, he wants to go out in style. I just hope that he doesn't try to set himself up for last minute heroics. Wait 'till next week for those shenanigans Brett.

Green Bay 31, Minnesota 21
 

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Hey airbag...

Very nice analysis indeed!

Personally I think Saturday's contests between Stl/Sea and Jets/Sd are the toughest to gauge and thus in my opinion are toss-ups because of all the extra variables and intangibles that will come into play.

I do agree whole-heartedly with your Denver and Green Bay selections and wagered on these two games myself although they are both small 2 units plays for me.

The vikes backed their way into the playoffs and have no momentum at all entering this game having lost their last two outings and having lost 4 of their last 5 straight up with a terrible 0-5 ATS mark in those games, meanwhile, the Packers enter with lots of momentum having won 9 of their last 11 games including twin 34-31 wins over these vikes...the closer is that minny is 2-20 straight up in their last 22 outdoor grass games.

Denver is indeed a a hard team to figure and definately are a harder team to trust when playing on the road, however, the fact remains that they have a top 10 defense and a top 10 offense, Bronco HC Mike Shanahan took steps during the last off season to bring in Champ Bailey and John Lynch just for the express reason of facing these colts in the playoff round again.

I think the Broncos have an excellent chance at the possible upset in this one and placed a small amount on the Money Line as well as grabbing the huge 10 point spot.


take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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I agree with Deb here. Looking at the Sat games, I have to go with the Rams right now but may change. Don't think they'll win, but against the Hawks they should take it down to the wire. I'm looking for a 3 pt game either way but leaning to the Hawks. My mathematical score is an odd 21-18 Hawks.

In the Jet/Sd game I think the embarrassing play of the Jets defense on Sunday will motivate them on that side of the ball for Sat. Question mark is the offense. While I think they will have some success runing with CM the question mark is Pennington who looked horrible for many games of the season, especially last week, and the play calling of Hacker is atrocious and so predictable a high school coach can call a defenseive scheme against it. I like the Chargers to win but right now looking at another close one. My mathematical score on this game is 28-24 Chargers. Leaning to Jets but may change.

Denver I think will control the clock with the running game where they have a definitive advantage. They are rushing for 30 ypg more than Indy and have a 29 ypg better defense against the run. Anyone that thinks the blowout of last year will occur again I think not. Deb's reasoning of the new defensive players Bailey and Lynch key. My mathematical model here is 21-17 Denver.

Minny? As Tony S says, forgedabodit! GB eats their lunch. The team is poorly coached, individual agendas, lousy attitudes, playing in the cold. Stick a fork in them. My mathematical model is an odd 28-19 GB.
 

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Deb12 said:
take care and good luck!

Deb

Thanks Deb. How's everything in Yankeeland? Have you taken any AP's lately? I maxed out on USC on a 10-pointer.
 

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Math model messed up on the SD/Jet game but the sides and one total was on target. Hope tomorrow works out as well.
 

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