I'm a Big 12 guy and it doesn't seem like there aren't a ton of you here, so I thought you might enjoy my thoughts.
You might also note that I am a K-State fan, so you are aware of my loyalties. I usually shy away from K-State games unless I feel really good about them. This is one of those weeks.
Kansas St -20
I love the Cats this week. Here are a few points to note:
This will be the best offense and defense the Jayhawks have faced this year. Even as poorly as the KSU defense has performed, it is still better than anything the Jayhawks have seen to this point. Kansas does not have a Big 12 quality running back and has nowhere near the quality of receivers that Kansas State has seen this year. KSU has faced Watts, Williams, and Woods in successive weeks. KU has nothing close to this quality of receiver.
KU's defense has no answer for the speed of Robersen, Sproles and Terry. K-State will score at will.
KU does have a good QB in Whittemore who has made a living this year getting his team in the right plays and making good reads. They also have a pretty good middle linebacker in Toomey, but KSU will win this game on the outside. KU does not have near enough speed to play with the Cats on the road.
Note that over the last 14 years. Yes, I said 14 years, KSU has won by an average of 21.36 points. Over their 10 win streak. KSU has outscored the Jayhawks 42-9. The last 5 they have outscored them 52-6. I know that this is just history, but what this history shows is the fact that Bill Snyder shows absolutely no mercy in this series. He may not say so in public, but this game has added significance to his program for recruiting and economic reasons and his teams always play up for this game regardless of the quality of KU's team. He also has little love for Mangino, who fled the program with the Stoops to OU during our run for the National Title in 1998 stealing recruits in the process.
I honestly believe that KSU will cover the current 20 point spread by 10, but will wait for Friday or Saturday as I think this spread could go down further.
Again, I don't normally bet KSU games, but I truly believe this is a slam dunk.
Nebraska -23
In Lincoln Iowa State will get pounded. I've won in successive weeks betting against the Cyclones. This week will be no different as only the spread has increased by about 7 points. Iowa State will still fail to cover.
Oklahoma -25
OU is money on the road as well as at home. I saw Colorado fold the tent in Manhattan last week. They are done for the year. This game get's way out of hand. Their pass defense is absolutely pathetic. KSU could have scored 70 if they would have thrown the ball in the first half instead of trying to establish the run.
Baylor +33
Baylor is improved and plays much better at home. This is too many points for an unmotivated Texas team.
Texas Tech -3
Missouri's pass defense rival's Colorado for the worst in the league. Texas Tech will throw up another half a hundred this week. I know that they beat Nebraska at home earlier, but Nebraska doesn't live by the pass. I don't think Missouri can keep up.
Oklahoma St -6.5
I don't have a great feel for this game, as A&M has been all over the map this year. If I were betting this game (which I'm not), I'd go with the Cowboys, but Kyle field is a tough place to play.
Here's how I'm betting this week.
Kansas St -20 (or lower if the spread continues to drop) 4 units
Oklahoma -25 3 units
Nebraska -23 2 units
Texas Tech -3 2 units
Baylor +33 1 unit
Lean on OSU, but not betting.
Good luck this week.
You might also note that I am a K-State fan, so you are aware of my loyalties. I usually shy away from K-State games unless I feel really good about them. This is one of those weeks.
Kansas St -20
I love the Cats this week. Here are a few points to note:
This will be the best offense and defense the Jayhawks have faced this year. Even as poorly as the KSU defense has performed, it is still better than anything the Jayhawks have seen to this point. Kansas does not have a Big 12 quality running back and has nowhere near the quality of receivers that Kansas State has seen this year. KSU has faced Watts, Williams, and Woods in successive weeks. KU has nothing close to this quality of receiver.
KU's defense has no answer for the speed of Robersen, Sproles and Terry. K-State will score at will.
KU does have a good QB in Whittemore who has made a living this year getting his team in the right plays and making good reads. They also have a pretty good middle linebacker in Toomey, but KSU will win this game on the outside. KU does not have near enough speed to play with the Cats on the road.
Note that over the last 14 years. Yes, I said 14 years, KSU has won by an average of 21.36 points. Over their 10 win streak. KSU has outscored the Jayhawks 42-9. The last 5 they have outscored them 52-6. I know that this is just history, but what this history shows is the fact that Bill Snyder shows absolutely no mercy in this series. He may not say so in public, but this game has added significance to his program for recruiting and economic reasons and his teams always play up for this game regardless of the quality of KU's team. He also has little love for Mangino, who fled the program with the Stoops to OU during our run for the National Title in 1998 stealing recruits in the process.
I honestly believe that KSU will cover the current 20 point spread by 10, but will wait for Friday or Saturday as I think this spread could go down further.
Again, I don't normally bet KSU games, but I truly believe this is a slam dunk.
Nebraska -23
In Lincoln Iowa State will get pounded. I've won in successive weeks betting against the Cyclones. This week will be no different as only the spread has increased by about 7 points. Iowa State will still fail to cover.
Oklahoma -25
OU is money on the road as well as at home. I saw Colorado fold the tent in Manhattan last week. They are done for the year. This game get's way out of hand. Their pass defense is absolutely pathetic. KSU could have scored 70 if they would have thrown the ball in the first half instead of trying to establish the run.
Baylor +33
Baylor is improved and plays much better at home. This is too many points for an unmotivated Texas team.
Texas Tech -3
Missouri's pass defense rival's Colorado for the worst in the league. Texas Tech will throw up another half a hundred this week. I know that they beat Nebraska at home earlier, but Nebraska doesn't live by the pass. I don't think Missouri can keep up.
Oklahoma St -6.5
I don't have a great feel for this game, as A&M has been all over the map this year. If I were betting this game (which I'm not), I'd go with the Cowboys, but Kyle field is a tough place to play.
Here's how I'm betting this week.
Kansas St -20 (or lower if the spread continues to drop) 4 units
Oklahoma -25 3 units
Nebraska -23 2 units
Texas Tech -3 2 units
Baylor +33 1 unit
Lean on OSU, but not betting.
Good luck this week.
