My Mosely vs DLH play

[almly]

You want answers, I got em. I've been a tad cold with my last 2 fights in Martin and Echols so Im looking to hit this square. Pinnacle - Mosely by decision +365. "Will the fight go the distance"? Yes is at -182. So I'm taking Mosely and hedging it somewhat. So to speak. Spinch is right about DLH fighting Moselys fight the first time. However, Mosely beat him at 11 years old when DLH wasnt coming off a loss to Trinidad also. Dont get me wrong - I dont LOVE Mosely to win but I like him and consider the odds a value play. And I dont see him knocking him out. This will be a good competitive fight that I see going the distance.

I need this one.

I've never used Pinnacle before. Are they stand up with payouts? They seem like idiots - they dont even list a phone number. How do you get ahold of these guys?

[This message was edited by almly on September 11, 2003 at 12:35 AM.]

 

[tgoodm1]

Of the lines they currently have available at Pinnacle, I like-Not Oscar by KO -305. Not Mosley by KO is unbelievably steep and the others can go either way. Therefore your best play for near guaranteed return is "Not Oscar by KO". His strategy will be different this fight. He will try to outbox Shane by keeping him on the outside. Oscar even admitted that he was going for the KO in the first fight. I will tell you this, if one wants to KO Shane Mosley, they had better be going for the KO. I say this because Shane also has a solid chin and he will not be broken down over the course of the fight if he is just being boxed. Oscar will have to commit to throwing and landing many power shots.

Good Luck!!!

 

[lakerfan]

almly, you won't have any trouble getting paid by Pinnacle.

 

[sphincter]

i saw mosely come dangerously close to getting k.o.`ed by forrest....more than once....and forrest isn`t a real big puncher....

i don`t like the look of mosely recently..in the ring and out......i really think he may have a confidence issue right now....he should have gotten a solid win or two under his belt before facing this level of opposition....

that said,it looks for all the world like another distance fight....



dlh is gonna have to establish the distance.....much like forrest did with mosely in their 2 fights....a stiff jab....mosely is very fast...but he fights very short armed....he almost appears midget-like in the ring to me...maybe that`s my perception...maybe his head looks to big for his body..reminds me physically of terron millett..sort of the antithesis of peanut head larry holmes(lol)......

i digress....i don`t know...i have a weird gut feeling that something odd is gonna happen in this one....

the dlh odds are rising steadily.....it appears that if he wins,the books get the shaft....

could somebody get stopped?......probably not....do i feel strongly enough to play it....not me....not yet,anyway...

btw....boxing freak...why take "not oscar by k.o." at -305 when you can get over 10.5 at -260?......

do you really think that mosely is going to k.o. dlh?.....are you worried about a cut?.....

i`m more concerned about mosely getting starched than dlh....don`t ever remember dlh even being hurt...he was knocked down by ike quartey but promptly got up and knocked quartey down.... ..although,it`s boxing...anything can happen in a bout like this...

as i said,these odds are heading upward steadily....if this continues,you would almost be obligated to hedge any bet with a flat play on mosely.....are we gonna see a +300?.....not probable.....but,not impossible...or as almly said.....mosely be decision at +365....


This message was edited by sphincter on September 11, 2003 at 01:13 PM.]

[This message was edited by sphincter on September 11, 2003 at 01:18 PM.]

[This message was edited by sphincter on September 11, 2003 at 01:19 PM.]

 

[tgoodm1]

Sphinc,

I feel that "Not Oscar by KO" is a better play than the over simply because I am only relying on one fighter's survival now. With the over, I must rely on both fighters making it midway into the 11th. I think that this is a safer bet considering that Oscar's strategy is now to box from the outside now and not be overly agressive in this bout.

Honestly, I do not think that this will be as great a fight as the first as both fighters have gotten in little work over the past year. I sense hesitancy and tentativeness over the first 3-4 rounds.

By the way, I got "Not Oscar by KO" at -290. Then it moved to -305.

 

[Gillian]

I have a feeling this is going to be a major slugfest. De La Hoya promised his fans a knockout. I don't know why... but I have a feeling De La Hoya is going to get cut. I thinking about the following at Intertops:

Shane Mosley v Oscar De la Hoya: Will either fighter get cut during the fight?

Bet Selections Win Odds Bet!
No -357
Yes +230

any thoughts?

Plus... anyone who wants to bet on De La Hoya but doesn't want the high odds... Intertops has Oscar for -182 to win Harold Lederman's score card for the first 3 rounds.

[This message was edited by Gil on September 11, 2003 at 04:19 PM.]

 

[sphincter]

my analysis on this compelling bout.....actually,paralysis by analysis...lol

i`ve read that shane has a longer reach than dlh....i disagree....forget the numbers....the height dictates the reach advantage..if you go by the numbers,mosely had a longer reach than forrest....he didn`t......and in my experience watching mosely,he fights "short armed"...... i think that forrest exposed that.....mosely is an extremely fast combination puncher....if dlh wants to use his jab and clinch,much like forrest,he`ll give himself an excellent chance to reverse the first bout....i really believe that the most telling aspect of the first fight was the timing....by that i mean dlh`s coming off the embarrassing loss to trinidad when he had the fight won easily..i believe only one fight fell in between the 2.....he was lambasted in the mexican press and by the hardcore mexican fans as being a coward........

dlh was out to prove that he had machismo and stated as much....and as a tall guy that needs room to punch...basically at that time,a one handed fighter,falling into an inside punchout with a faster combination puncher was doomed to failure.....dlh failed to establish the correct distance in that fight...if he does the same thing,he`ll lose again...

i saw forrest confuse and discourage mosely with that jab setting up those straight right hands.....and i think mosely`s body was exposed,somewhat...mosely was hurt to the body by forrest....

add the fact that it`s been quite a long while since mosely`s been successful in the ring....i mean,he really didn`t even look very good vs raul marquez....

instead of stepping into mosely`s inside quickness,dlh has to stay outside....like most taller mexican fighters,he needs room to throw those hooks and combo`s...

it`s all about the distance....shane can`t stand outside and throw those multiple combos....dlh has to keep pumping that jab and make mosely reset time and again.....

if this reverts to another punchout,mosely should win....if dlh is smart,and fight`s smart,i think he`ll reverse the first decision....maybe even have a shot at a late round stoppage....i really wonder about mosely`s confidence....

but,dlh has trouble with slick,quick guys......pernell whitaker probably won his bout with dlh....i expect mosely to switch back and forth between southpaw and orthodox stances much like the first fight...lefties do give dlh some trouble....and the stuff about dlh`s injured left hand....it may be fine going into the bout....but if he injures it during the bout,he`s done....forget the "new improved" right hand...dlh is a predominantly left handed fighter....

with that said,as these odds go higher and higher,i may have to take a shot with mosely if it approaches 3-1....+250 would be fine....was considering oscar by stoppage as a small hedge,but i`m not sure...hard to picture this as anything but a distance fight....
this one`s a crapshoot.....that`s what makes it so compelling....

i wish i saw a clear cut angle here.....i don`t.....so many variables...i`m not gonna force it.....unless something earth shattering comes up...
[This message was edited by sphincter on September 12, 2003 at 01:18 AM.]

[This message was edited by sphincter on September 12, 2003 at 01:22 AM.]

[This message was edited by sphincter on September 12, 2003 at 01:26 AM.]

 

[DENIRO]

sphinc

agree w/ all you stated

also, any opionions on the heavier weight class

they first fought at 147, sat fight is at 154

as dhl is taller i believe this weight helps dlh and hurts shane

i believe shane lost all his bouts at 154 ( 2 losses vs forrest and a no decision)

dhl however looked great at 154 ko vargas.

i believe you are 100% correct about distance. shane throws fast inside combo punches and needs to be close. i think the key will be dlh jab. like forrest always jabbing not only for offense but more importantly defensively.w/ the jab he can dictate the fight and fustrate shane like forrest did.

i believe dlh is 1 of the smartest fighters. dont forget mayweather is his new trainer also.

 

[sphincter]

they held friday night fights at the venue for mosely /dlh......it`s a full 20 by 20 foot ring.....big and roomy.......looks very much like another decision......

i was a little concerned with how muscular mosely looked....i hope that doesn`t impair his quickness and stamina in the later rounds......usually not a good idea to get blocky as you move to a higher weight division....especially if speed is your game....

i can think of better possiblities to spend my money on,so i decided on putting a very small wager on moesly by decision at +365......i just may go over 10.5 rounds if i have a decent football day and my other boxing wager hits.....


g.l.,guys...

 

[TheGeneral+]

De La Hoya, Mosley to rumble: When Oscar De La Hoya fights a rematch with Shane Mosley tonight in Las Vegas, he'll enter the ring with a new-found nastiness.

It came out in a savage knockout of Fernando Vargas last year, possibly the biggest win of his career. Now De La Hoya vows tonight's fight will be quite different from his loss to Mosley at 147 pounds three years ago.

"If he thinks he's going to face the same fighter, he's got another thing coming," De La Hoya said.

De La Hoya, 30, will risk his WBC and WBA 154-pound titles. Mosley is 38-2 with 35 knockouts.

The scheduled 12-round bout, offered on pay-per-view, is expected to begin about 10:30 p.m. CDT. Both fighters weighed in Friday at the class limit of 154 pounds.

 

[Gillian]

Check out these ROUND BY ROUND props that are at WSEX. I love the fact that you get 3 rounds for each option. I put money on Mosley for the last six rounds, and De La Hoya for the last six rounds. Great value!!!


OSCAR TO WIN IN ROUNDS 7-9 6-1 Wager
OSCAR TO WIN IN ROUNDS 10-12 6-1 Wager
OSCAR TO WIN IN ROUNDS 4-6 8-1 Wager
SHANE TO WIN IN ROUNDS 7-9 17-2 Wager
SHANE TO WIN IN ROUNDS 10-12 17-2 Wager
OSCAR TO WIN IN ROUNDS 1-3 10-1 Wager
SHANE TO WIN IN ROUNDS 4-6 10-1 Wager
SHANE TO WIN IN ROUNDS 1-3 12-1 Wager

 

[Gillian]

 

[almly]

OK General, thanx for the briefing there. Anyway, Mosely by dec was up to +395 at 5 dimes. I couldnt get the money in my account fast enough so I got it at +370. So, a nickel went on Mosely by dec at +370 and a dime went on the fight goes the distance at -200. Spinch, loosen up that rubber band baby, it's time to go to work.

 

[darwin'stheory]

the over to me sounds better than anything else. I will watch this one go the distance.

 

[Oren1]

Gil, I'm really starting to think you're a shill for Intertops as well, lol, I mean, come on, you call everything a "value" bet but so far almost none of them have cashed. Did it occur to you that the fight would last 12 rounds?

 

[almly]

I was soooo happy that I got a chance to make my Shane play - lose - and cash out even. I mean, I wasnt thrilled, I thought I had it, but I thought it was a nice "hedge". I got to take my shot, lose, and cover my ass. I didnt think that this was not going to go 12.

THAT WAS A SHITEE DECISION. And I am never influenced by the HBO commentary, I thought Oscar won by at least 2 or 3 points. I lost but got a gift. But you know what, I've practicaly won alot of sh!t before and then some out of the cosmos BS happended, no joke. I deserved this BS gift. I had to check to make sure 5 dimes was putting that 4 grand in my account, but they did.

About what George said, Arum is a piece of sh!t. The fighte before DLH vs Mosely was fuking horrible for PPV. We pay good money and Arum dosent respect that. The first fight should have been the lead up. Cotto is a joke. One joke fighting another joke before the main PPV event.

Anyway, I got a BS gift that I thought I was due. I would have never lost though. If Oscar got the decision I would have broken even.

 

[tgoodm1]

Almy,

You have absolutely nothing to feel undeserving about. The great thing about betting on boxing is that you can sometimes eliminate certain factors before a bout takes place. In this fight you eliminated the possibility of Oscar knocking out Shane. You gave yourself an opportunity to win without losing money. That is what it is all about when I risk money on boxing 75% of the time. I must know what has a very good chance of happening and what does not have a very good chance of taking place.

Before the prop odds came out for the fight, I was waiting on "Not Mosley by KO". They were too high at Pinnacle. So I began to think of Oscar's chances of knocking out Shane. I did some research and studied videos and interviews and decided to go with "Not Oscar by KO" and I came out on top.

Bottom Line: You gave yourself an opportunity to win and so did Shane because he was the aggressor throughout the bout coming forward at all times and he landed more telling power shots in my opinion. Most importantly, he kept the fight close by coming on strong in the championship rounds. So give yourself a pat on the back.

 

[sphincter]

bf....you can spin it any way you want....it`s scored round by round....dlh won more rounds easily......a bad decision....did all the money that came in late on shane have anyting to do with what happened?....maybe....i,for one,feel uncomfortable collecting after this....shane just didn`t throw enough punches....and he didn`t win the last 5 rounds(as i think 2 judges had him doing)....ashamed....reminiscent of the 1st holi-lewis fight back in ny in "99"....a ridiculous amount of money came in on holi just before fight time and he got a ridiculous draw in a fight he clearly lost......

these odds dropped from almost 3-1 to 2-1 right before the fight....shaky,imo....

i agree with what you say about the high profile and low profile bouts....excellent points...

and i won money on shane by decision and the over(lost on stevie johnston who i thought was worth almost 2-1,but looked old).....

g.l.

 

[TruthEmminates]

The compubox numbers were really in Oscar's favor.

 

[darwinmobley]

deserving, not deserving, I got the over! The boxing match if anything should have been a draw or to DLH , however it did not nor was not. Therefore the question why? Who knows what the judges were thinking or not thinking, maybe it was the ring girls that caught their eye. Who knows, can anyone say rematch?!