I've been back and forth on this game and have been looking at as many angles as I can to find an edge. So far this is what I've found:
Colts:
5-0 ATS on MNF Payton = Favre Monday Night Magic.
This is a must-win for the Colts to stay in the playoff hunt
Colts/Tenn always play a tight game with only one game in the last three decided by more than a FG
Titans defense is overrated as they have played no one this year, only one team with a winning record, and none with a passing game as prolific as the Colts.
Bob Sanders is out. Addai is out. Both critical elements on their respective side of the ball.
Colts put up 31 points on Baltimore.
Titans:
6-0 ATS this season and a ton of other trends that point to them covering (i'm not a big believer in trends, but it is what it is)
Titans can RUN. They have an elite front seven that will punish a soft Indy defense. Titans are a run first/throw second team.
Titans have something prove tonight in order to (re)establish themselves as an elite playoff contending team.
Titans will be at home, it will be a loud, hostile environment.
****
My interpretation, is both teams have something to play for. Whether it be a chance at the playoffs (indy) or to establish dominance in the AFC south (tenn). I think there's a slight edge to Tenn here because teams can WANT to win all they want, but execution is where its at and Tenn I feel matches up better against Indy, thus having a better chance at executing against Indy tonight. Also, Tenn saw what happened when Houston let Indy hang around a few weeks ago-- I feel Tenn will try to put Indy away early and pile it on with an aggressive running attack.
As for Peyton being 5-0 ATS on MNF and Titans 6-0 ATS this year. I throw both these trends out and stick with the meat & potatoes of this game. There is so much more to cap this game on than trends.
It has been my opinion (and shown repeatedly) that to beat the Colts, you RUN the ball, keep Manning of the field, and keep your defense fresh. I know most of you will bring up that Indy scored 31 on Baltimore. Is anyone really convinced of that offense? Indy had the benefit of getting an early lead, and making Baltimore play from behind with a rookie QB on the road. Of course Indy scored 31, Flacco had 3 INTs that game and the Baltimore offense put the ball on the ground 4 times (2 lost). Kerry Collins has had 3 interceptions all year and I will compare this to Manning's 7.
Last week we got to see this Indy team play on the road, in the elements, at Lambeau field. Granted it wasn't classing greenbay packer weather, but it was the first game for the Colts that was played on the road, in the elements.
Tonight will be no different as it will be COLD tonight... high of 53 low of 36. Not terribly cold, but cold enough to make the team with a dominant running game more effective. I hate to compare former games/teams, but I think this plays out much like the Indy/Packer game did last week, except the Titans don't score as much due to a lesser passing game and a heavier emphasis on the run.
I'm taking Tennessee (-4) for 2 units. Still gotta wait a couple hours to see what my local offers, but I think the Titans win this by at least a TD.
Prediction>> Colts 17 Titans 27
Colts:
5-0 ATS on MNF Payton = Favre Monday Night Magic.
This is a must-win for the Colts to stay in the playoff hunt
Colts/Tenn always play a tight game with only one game in the last three decided by more than a FG
Titans defense is overrated as they have played no one this year, only one team with a winning record, and none with a passing game as prolific as the Colts.
Bob Sanders is out. Addai is out. Both critical elements on their respective side of the ball.
Colts put up 31 points on Baltimore.
Titans:
6-0 ATS this season and a ton of other trends that point to them covering (i'm not a big believer in trends, but it is what it is)
Titans can RUN. They have an elite front seven that will punish a soft Indy defense. Titans are a run first/throw second team.
Titans have something prove tonight in order to (re)establish themselves as an elite playoff contending team.
Titans will be at home, it will be a loud, hostile environment.
****
My interpretation, is both teams have something to play for. Whether it be a chance at the playoffs (indy) or to establish dominance in the AFC south (tenn). I think there's a slight edge to Tenn here because teams can WANT to win all they want, but execution is where its at and Tenn I feel matches up better against Indy, thus having a better chance at executing against Indy tonight. Also, Tenn saw what happened when Houston let Indy hang around a few weeks ago-- I feel Tenn will try to put Indy away early and pile it on with an aggressive running attack.
As for Peyton being 5-0 ATS on MNF and Titans 6-0 ATS this year. I throw both these trends out and stick with the meat & potatoes of this game. There is so much more to cap this game on than trends.
It has been my opinion (and shown repeatedly) that to beat the Colts, you RUN the ball, keep Manning of the field, and keep your defense fresh. I know most of you will bring up that Indy scored 31 on Baltimore. Is anyone really convinced of that offense? Indy had the benefit of getting an early lead, and making Baltimore play from behind with a rookie QB on the road. Of course Indy scored 31, Flacco had 3 INTs that game and the Baltimore offense put the ball on the ground 4 times (2 lost). Kerry Collins has had 3 interceptions all year and I will compare this to Manning's 7.
Last week we got to see this Indy team play on the road, in the elements, at Lambeau field. Granted it wasn't classing greenbay packer weather, but it was the first game for the Colts that was played on the road, in the elements.
Tonight will be no different as it will be COLD tonight... high of 53 low of 36. Not terribly cold, but cold enough to make the team with a dominant running game more effective. I hate to compare former games/teams, but I think this plays out much like the Indy/Packer game did last week, except the Titans don't score as much due to a lesser passing game and a heavier emphasis on the run.
I'm taking Tennessee (-4) for 2 units. Still gotta wait a couple hours to see what my local offers, but I think the Titans win this by at least a TD.
Prediction>> Colts 17 Titans 27
arty:
