MY INSIGHT ON THE DENVER NUGGETS 2ND HALF UNDER

[EYEZGOTLOX]

it's time to take a rest, the trend is OVER!!!all though carmelo is a great offensive presence and an up and coming star,the real enemy of the under is earl boykins.With him at the point this team fly's up and down the court and thrives on the transition game.in years past the denver nuggets were a horrible shooting half court team,this isn't the case anymore..what ever happened to donnel harvey and nene hillario these guys knew how to win for us.I AM DONE................for a lil while at least.

gl in ya plays

 

[jerseymike111]

Why don't you play the overs in their 2nd halfs?

 

[SkyMasterson+]

hmmm. Isn't the point of the Denver 2nd half unders that the opposing teams are not used to playing at altitude and therefore tire late in the game affecting their ability to score? If so the players participating are irrelelvant......it is the fact that the scoring is skewed that matters

 

[EYEZGOTLOX]

the altitude was the main point for the under,however if denver continues to score an avg 101.3 ppg at home, how the hell can the under come in? they are a run and gun team that is starting to gel and i expect them to put up good offensive numbers this year,and as a result of a smaller quicker lineup there defense will be hurt.the denver under is on hold for me.but i hope i'm wrong and things turn around as this was a sure winner for alot of us.

gl

 

[BZ]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Sky Masterson:
hmmm. Isn't the point of the Denver 2nd half unders that the opposing teams are not used to playing at altitude and therefore tire late in the game affecting their ability to score? If so the players participating are irrelelvant......it is the fact that the scoring is skewed that matters<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


You are absolutely correct sky masterson.

The last two losses have been close but the trend has been just breaking even since the all star break last year.

The books numbers are alot sharper and you still have to get good value in realtionship to the original game line IMO. That's what I will be looking for from now on. Otherwise a no play for me.

 

[EYEZGOTLOX]

that is a very valid point to bz.the line has been adjusted and there is no value in the 2nd half total line

 

[SkyMasterson+]

Got to be honest and admit that I never played the second half under angle so I can't really comment on whether the line has been adjusted although I am sure it has been.....

One thing I never understood was that given that the 2nd half is broadly correlated to the game line and what happened in the first half where as the game line is broadly based on what happened in previous games....then why wasn't going over in the first half also a good bet. The point was that the scoring was skewed and not following normal expectations so wouldn't more points be scored in the first half?

or am I missing something?

 

[EYEZGOTLOX]

QUOTE:Got to be honest and admit that I never played the second half under ...???HEY SKYDIK i've invested thousands of dollars in this play and you never invested a cent?who cares about your opinion, ya 5 dollar bettin college f**kin idiot.u my man can eatadik.

 

[BZ]

The previous 3 years the trend was 90-31-3. I never really tracked the 1st half. The games that usually won however would have a higher scoring 1st (tempo being a key factor as fatigue sets in for the 2nd)and a lower scoring 2nd. Then taking into to account the score at the half, I would determine what the 2nd half number should be in relationship to the original game total. A good value is anything 5 or higher meaning that if the original total was 186 and they scored 100 points at the half the 2nd half total should be 86. If the number that is posted is 91 or higher you have good value. If it is lower than greater chance of not hitting. A line differencial of more than 10 then a no play.

That's how I've been playing it.

 

[EYEZGOTLOX]

bz makes sense.but i think your getting way to technical.the trend was to bet the 2nd half under no matter what,of course u would hope those animals ran up and down the court the first half and got winded but that wasn't always the case.i was confident on every 2nd half under wager i made despite the first half.but now i'm scared shit cause all they do is run up and down the court.EARL BOYKINS is the ruination.....

gl

 

[BZ]

eyez,
I've been tracking this thing for 3+ years now and the reason why I am technical about it is that it determines the size of the play I will make. Sometimes it is small because I feel there is no value.

GLTY.

 

[EYEZGOTLOX]

agreed.i thought u meant there were times u didn't bet it.

gl

 

[EYEZGOTLOX]

another one bites the dust...unbelieveable

 

[EYEZGOTLOX]

and another one..titz ova

 

[Slammy2002]

Earl Boykins makes this a totally different team. The little dude can flat out shoot the rock, loves to run and is really fast. I played the over with him at GS last year a lot when he started to play in crunch-time.

 

[EYEZGOTLOX]

and another one bites the dust...how can something so good, go so bad........