woohoo. Derby Day.
Here we go.
.50 cent tri key 1st, 2nd, and 3rd
$45.00 each ticket for total $135.00 bet
#3 Materiality
Drawback is that he only has three races and he will need to break alertly to get position into the turn. Positives are that he has three vastly improving Beyers with the last at 110 being the highest in this race. Undefeated in three starts. Buttressed by being the only horse in the race with two 1 1/8 mile wins, one coming in the Florida Derby, a favored prep for previous Derby winners. Should get a nice price. 12/1 in the Telly.
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#2 Carpe Diem
Two Grade 1 wins in 5 lifetime starts, his only loss being a 2nd place finish in the BC Juvenile (GR 1).
#4 Tencendur
Long longshot here. Got off the Aqu inner track in last when his Beyer jumped to 100 from a previous best in the eighties.
#6 Mubtaahji
Ships in from Dubai. Last two were wins at 1 3/16 in 2 million and 250 thou stakes races. This horse is a monster. Only drawback is that my experience with overseas shippers for these Triple Crown races is that they run bad. Maybe it's all the different connections they have to make before they actually arrive at Churchill. Very, very dangerous if the horse gives a top form performance.
#8 Dortmund
Will be one of the two favorites. Undefeated in 6 lifetime starts. I watched his last, a win at 1 1/8. He set fast early fractions on the lead. I didn't think he could last. He not only lasted, he drew away in the stretch. Tough.
#10 Firing Line
In five lifetime starts he's never been worse than 2nd by a half length, including two second place finishes by a head to Dortmund.
#12 International Star
Three consecutive wins in his three year old campaign, all closing ground. Should be coming when all the early speed is tiring.
#15 Frosted
Another closer coming off his lifetime best with an easy win in the Wood Memorial. Another similar race could get him there.
#18 American Pharoh
Likely the favorite. After throwing a clunker in his maiden start he's won four consecutive by impressive margins, drawing away in each. Three Grade 1s and a Grade 2. Hard to argue with his favorite status. But favorites do get beat in the Derby, no matter how good they look going in.
#19 Upstart
Lost by 1 1/2 lengths in last to Materiality, the horse I am picking. Has two Beyers as good as or better than Dortmund and American Pharoh's best. Dangerous.
#20 Far Right
A real long longshot. Improving, has a closing running style, and ran 2nd to American Pharoh in the Arkansas Derby. Could garbage up for the tri.
A word about the bet. This is the day to go for the Big Score. Trifectas and superfectas traditionally pay very big on this day because of 1) the huge 20 horse field, and 2) the fact that a lot of rank amateur's bet into the pool. Neither of these things happen on most of the other racing days in the year. These are young horses going a distance that they've never run before. Unexpected performances often happen. If American Pharoh and or Dortmund run out of the tri or super, you can bring the wheelbarrow if you have the winning ticket. Hopefully one of us does.
Good luck guys and gals.
Here we go.
.50 cent tri key 1st, 2nd, and 3rd
$45.00 each ticket for total $135.00 bet
#3 Materiality
Drawback is that he only has three races and he will need to break alertly to get position into the turn. Positives are that he has three vastly improving Beyers with the last at 110 being the highest in this race. Undefeated in three starts. Buttressed by being the only horse in the race with two 1 1/8 mile wins, one coming in the Florida Derby, a favored prep for previous Derby winners. Should get a nice price. 12/1 in the Telly.
///
with
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#2 Carpe Diem
Two Grade 1 wins in 5 lifetime starts, his only loss being a 2nd place finish in the BC Juvenile (GR 1).
#4 Tencendur
Long longshot here. Got off the Aqu inner track in last when his Beyer jumped to 100 from a previous best in the eighties.
#6 Mubtaahji
Ships in from Dubai. Last two were wins at 1 3/16 in 2 million and 250 thou stakes races. This horse is a monster. Only drawback is that my experience with overseas shippers for these Triple Crown races is that they run bad. Maybe it's all the different connections they have to make before they actually arrive at Churchill. Very, very dangerous if the horse gives a top form performance.
#8 Dortmund
Will be one of the two favorites. Undefeated in 6 lifetime starts. I watched his last, a win at 1 1/8. He set fast early fractions on the lead. I didn't think he could last. He not only lasted, he drew away in the stretch. Tough.
#10 Firing Line
In five lifetime starts he's never been worse than 2nd by a half length, including two second place finishes by a head to Dortmund.
#12 International Star
Three consecutive wins in his three year old campaign, all closing ground. Should be coming when all the early speed is tiring.
#15 Frosted
Another closer coming off his lifetime best with an easy win in the Wood Memorial. Another similar race could get him there.
#18 American Pharoh
Likely the favorite. After throwing a clunker in his maiden start he's won four consecutive by impressive margins, drawing away in each. Three Grade 1s and a Grade 2. Hard to argue with his favorite status. But favorites do get beat in the Derby, no matter how good they look going in.
#19 Upstart
Lost by 1 1/2 lengths in last to Materiality, the horse I am picking. Has two Beyers as good as or better than Dortmund and American Pharoh's best. Dangerous.
#20 Far Right
A real long longshot. Improving, has a closing running style, and ran 2nd to American Pharoh in the Arkansas Derby. Could garbage up for the tri.
A word about the bet. This is the day to go for the Big Score. Trifectas and superfectas traditionally pay very big on this day because of 1) the huge 20 horse field, and 2) the fact that a lot of rank amateur's bet into the pool. Neither of these things happen on most of the other racing days in the year. These are young horses going a distance that they've never run before. Unexpected performances often happen. If American Pharoh and or Dortmund run out of the tri or super, you can bring the wheelbarrow if you have the winning ticket. Hopefully one of us does.
Good luck guys and gals.
