thanks, here are some more numbers
Montreal 69% Value (19.4)
Boston 68% Value (8.8)
Pitt 64% Value (4.6)
Stl 64% Value (1.00)
Tor 64% Value (-2.6)
SJ 62% Value (3.1)
Nash 55% Value (-14.75)
Ott 55% Value (7.75)
NJ 54% Value (1.1)
Minn 54% Value (10.75)
Ana 50% Value (14.75)
Isles 50% Value (22.5)
So you can see from my chart that Mont offers the highest % chance to win with the 2nd highest Value on the board, which makes them my best play for today.. Higher volume Value players can read something else into the charts for today..
Montreal 69% Value (19.4)
Boston 68% Value (8.8)
Pitt 64% Value (4.6)
Stl 64% Value (1.00)
Tor 64% Value (-2.6)
SJ 62% Value (3.1)
Nash 55% Value (-14.75)
Ott 55% Value (7.75)
NJ 54% Value (1.1)
Minn 54% Value (10.75)
Ana 50% Value (14.75)
Isles 50% Value (22.5)
So you can see from my chart that Mont offers the highest % chance to win with the 2nd highest Value on the board, which makes them my best play for today.. Higher volume Value players can read something else into the charts for today..
Perhaps i should have broken the work down into 2 parts..
Project win %
Montreal 69%
Boston 68%
Pitt 64%
Stl 64%
Tor 64%
SJ 62%
Nash 55%
Ott 55%
Minn 54%
NJ 54%
Ana 50%
Isles 50%
Numerical Value chart from above selections..
Isles 22.5
Mont 19.4
Ana 14.75
Minn 10.75
Bos 8.8
Ott 7.75
Pitt 4.6
SJ 3.1
NJ 1.1
Stl 1.0
Tor -2.6
Nash -14.75
Now from those 2 charts, its easy to see that Montreal would be my best play tonight.. Obviously there can be Value in a (-160) favorite, if you have the line at (-223).. As you can see the first 2 selections both won today.. Boston won with a 68% expected rate but their Value was only (8.8)... A wager could have been made on them, if you were playing a higher volume of games today.. Look also at Minn.. Their expected win rate was 54%, they also won and they carried a Value of (10.75)... So a case could have been made for both selections.. And a true Value player would have probably been on Anaheim as well... Expected win rate of only 50% today but a numerical Value rating of (14.75)...
Good Luck with your wagers tonight, Go Habs..
MITM
Project win %
Montreal 69%
Boston 68%
Pitt 64%
Stl 64%
Tor 64%
SJ 62%
Nash 55%
Ott 55%
Minn 54%
NJ 54%
Ana 50%
Isles 50%
Numerical Value chart from above selections..
Isles 22.5
Mont 19.4
Ana 14.75
Minn 10.75
Bos 8.8
Ott 7.75
Pitt 4.6
SJ 3.1
NJ 1.1
Stl 1.0
Tor -2.6
Nash -14.75
Now from those 2 charts, its easy to see that Montreal would be my best play tonight.. Obviously there can be Value in a (-160) favorite, if you have the line at (-223).. As you can see the first 2 selections both won today.. Boston won with a 68% expected rate but their Value was only (8.8)... A wager could have been made on them, if you were playing a higher volume of games today.. Look also at Minn.. Their expected win rate was 54%, they also won and they carried a Value of (10.75)... So a case could have been made for both selections.. And a true Value player would have probably been on Anaheim as well... Expected win rate of only 50% today but a numerical Value rating of (14.75)...
Good Luck with your wagers tonight, Go Habs..
MITM
My internet is out so I'm typing on phone. So excuse me. Let me also say. Montreal should have been a 3 unit winner yesterday and I'll try and explain that as we move to Sundays games. Here are the charts and plays for Sunday.
Win %%% chart
anaheim 61%
minn 58%
mont 53%
dallas 52%
san Jose 52%
ariz 51%
now let's apply the lines for today and look at the value chart.
Ana (-13.1) neg value
minn (-13.4) neg vslue
mont (+27.2) great value
dallas (+50.8) great value
sj (-17.6) neg value
ariz (+9.65) slight value
so u can see from the 2 charts that we cannot play Ana or Minn as both offer neg value. Our plays today are.
Montreal +140
Dallas +190
both small 1 unit plays
Both were selected to win but at low %%%%. 53% and 52% but both offer great Value. Our plan is to play both good value plays small. 1 unit each and hope we win one of them and turn a profit today.
MITM
Win %%% chart
anaheim 61%
minn 58%
mont 53%
dallas 52%
san Jose 52%
ariz 51%
now let's apply the lines for today and look at the value chart.
Ana (-13.1) neg value
minn (-13.4) neg vslue
mont (+27.2) great value
dallas (+50.8) great value
sj (-17.6) neg value
ariz (+9.65) slight value
so u can see from the 2 charts that we cannot play Ana or Minn as both offer neg value. Our plays today are.
Montreal +140
Dallas +190
both small 1 unit plays
Both were selected to win but at low %%%%. 53% and 52% but both offer great Value. Our plan is to play both good value plays small. 1 unit each and hope we win one of them and turn a profit today.
MITM
Looks like we got the win with TB last night, guess the record is 3-1 (+5.90 units).. lets look at tuesdays board with 11 games to consider.
here are my plays
Nash (+105) 1.5 units
NJ (+105) 1.5 units
Ana (-120) 1.5 units
lets look at the charts
Win % tonight
sj 69%
la 67%
ana 59%
nash 56%
nj 56%
det 54%
dal 52%
stl/bos 50% each
wash/az 50% each
pitt/mont 50% each
tb/isles 50% each
the four 50% games are eliminated, my program must make a choice to consider the line value.. now lets look at the value when the lines are applied.
value tonight
sj (-8.80) neg value
la (-5.95) neg value
ana (10.15)
nash (14.80)
nj (12.90)
dal (-27.20) neg value
det (no line yet but with only a 54% win expectancy, ill eliminate that as well)...
so the neg values are eliminate but i do expect sj and la to win tonight but i cant play them.. this leaves us with 3 plays tonight for 1.5 units each..
MITM
here are my plays
Nash (+105) 1.5 units
NJ (+105) 1.5 units
Ana (-120) 1.5 units
lets look at the charts
Win % tonight
sj 69%
la 67%
ana 59%
nash 56%
nj 56%
det 54%
dal 52%
stl/bos 50% each
wash/az 50% each
pitt/mont 50% each
tb/isles 50% each
the four 50% games are eliminated, my program must make a choice to consider the line value.. now lets look at the value when the lines are applied.
value tonight
sj (-8.80) neg value
la (-5.95) neg value
ana (10.15)
nash (14.80)
nj (12.90)
dal (-27.20) neg value
det (no line yet but with only a 54% win expectancy, ill eliminate that as well)...
so the neg values are eliminate but i do expect sj and la to win tonight but i cant play them.. this leaves us with 3 plays tonight for 1.5 units each..
MITM
NHL SRS Program
5-3 (+7.18 units)
Plays for Nov 20
TB (-135) 1.5 units
Nash (-115) 1.5 units
Wash (+100) 1.5 units
AZ (+140) 1.5 units
Win %%% chart
LA 68%
TB 62%
Nash 60%
Wash 60%
AZ 59%
SJ 55%
Mont 54%
Cal 53%
Winn 53%
Minn 52%
Ana/Van no line, ill eliminate this game from consideration
Value chart
LA -4.00
TB +10.70
Nash +12.00
Wash +23.00
AZ +31.60
SJ -18.45
Mont +4.80
Cal +14.55
Winn +3.65
Minn -5.60
All negative values plays will be eliminate, plays range from (1-3) units.. Good luck on thursday guys..
MITM (FS)
5-3 (+7.18 units)
Plays for Nov 20
TB (-135) 1.5 units
Nash (-115) 1.5 units
Wash (+100) 1.5 units
AZ (+140) 1.5 units
Win %%% chart
LA 68%
TB 62%
Nash 60%
Wash 60%
AZ 59%
SJ 55%
Mont 54%
Cal 53%
Winn 53%
Minn 52%
Ana/Van no line, ill eliminate this game from consideration
Value chart
LA -4.00
TB +10.70
Nash +12.00
Wash +23.00
AZ +31.60
SJ -18.45
Mont +4.80
Cal +14.55
Winn +3.65
Minn -5.60
All negative values plays will be eliminate, plays range from (1-3) units.. Good luck on thursday guys..
MITM (FS)
NHL SRS Program
10-7 (+9.92 units)
Play for Nov 24
Islanders (-175) 1 unit
Disappointed i didnt play this last night at (-145) or (-150), i lost almost all my Value.. Here are todays numbers from my program.
Win %%
Isles 65%
Pitt 56%
Det 55%
Minn 52%
Value Chart
Isles (+3.45)
Pitt (+5.40)
Det (-12.90)
Minn (-10.45)
Best of luck with your plays tonight..
MITM (FS)
10-7 (+9.92 units)
Play for Nov 24
Islanders (-175) 1 unit
Disappointed i didnt play this last night at (-145) or (-150), i lost almost all my Value.. Here are todays numbers from my program.
Win %%
Isles 65%
Pitt 56%
Det 55%
Minn 52%
Value Chart
Isles (+3.45)
Pitt (+5.40)
Det (-12.90)
Minn (-10.45)
Best of luck with your plays tonight..
MITM (FS)
