This is a tough spot for the Raiders who have to travel back to the East Coast for another week which is a very hard challenge after playing at Tennessee last week. A West Coast team playing on the East Coast is always a tough task due to the early start time on the East Coast. This game actually mark’s the Raider’s 3rd East coast road game in the first 4 weeks and I think it’s too much to overcomes against a Ravens squad that is a ‘mission’ team this year and are playing today’s game looking for revenge from last year’s 37-33 loss at Oakland. Despite losing, the Ravens outgained the Raiders by 45 yards. The last time the Ravens played the Raiders at home was in 2012 (-9.5 point favorite) and the Ravens won 55-20. Oakland has been outgained in all 3 games this season, which is another red flag and reason to back the Ravens in this spot. Baltimore hasn’t given up more than 20 points in their first 3 games. They dominated the Bills in Week 1 at home and get the addition of Elvis Dumervil back at linebacker I see this improved defense leading the way again. Baltimore is ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed and they already have 5 interceptions. Look for them to control this game and cruise to a win with a final score in the 28-20 range. (1* Baltimore) -3 1/2
Article by Brandon Shively[ Handicapper ] 71% in 1st 3 weeks of NFL]
The advance line on this game was Arizona -10.5. But after the Cardinals played terrible in an 18-33 road loss to the Bills, and the Rams beat the Bucs 37-32 on the road, this line has now been bet down to -8 I's a classic overreaction from last week's results. The Cardinals are still one of the best teams in the NFL. They gave the game away last week against the Bills by committing five turnovers. They actually outgained the Bills 348 to 296 for the game.
I really liked what I saw from the Cardinals in Week 2 when they were bouncing back from a 21-23 loss to the Patriots. They came back and throttled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a final of 40-7 at home. I look for them to take out their frustrations on the Rams this week as well.
Yes, the Rams scored 37 points against the Bucs last week, but their offense isn't fixed. They only managed 3120 total yards against the Bucs, which usually wouldn't equate to 37 points. Remember, they had scored a combined nine points in their first two games without scoring a touchdown. The Rams still have the worst offense in the NFL. They are averaging 15.3 points and a league-low 262.7 yards pr game on the season. They simply do not have the firepower to keep up with the Cardinals, who are putting up 26.3 points and 369 yards per game.
This Rams defense isn't all that special either as it is allowing 366 yards per game. The Cardinals still have a great defense as they are giving up only 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play. The Rams are getting outgained by 103.3 yards per game on the season, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
Plays against road teams (LA RAMS) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season are 61-30 (67%) ATS since 1983. Los Angeles is clearly overvalued due to back-to-back wins over the Seahawks and Bucs. It's time to sell high on the Rams.
The Cardinals are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss. Arizona is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Los Angeles. Bet the Cardinals Sunday. -8
Article by Jack Jones [ Handicapper ] 68% in 1st 3 weeks of NFL]
Teddy enters the weekend riding a smoking’ hot 32-15 (68%) all sports run. He is hitting 73% in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season, picking up right where he left off during last year's epic 56-27 (67%) campaign; making big $$ for himself and his clients RIGHT NOW! The Patriots have survived the Tom Brady suspension pretty darn well, going 3-0 SU and ATS without their four time Super Bowl winning QB. But with Brady on the way back next week, facing a divisional rival with a real chip on their shoulder, I’m expecting the Patriots to be tested on Sunday in a clear flat spot for the home favorite.
New England doesn’t have a healthy quarterback right now. Jimmy Garappolo has been upgraded to probable, but he’s dealing with consistent pain from his shoulder injury. Jacoby Brissett has a bad thumb, and if the rookie third stringer gets playing time here, it’s probably good news for Buffalo backers.
And the Pats are an overvalued commodity this week. Think about their season. They started with an upset win over Arizona, devalued now because Arizona hasn’t looked anything like the elite squad they were last year in early season play. The Pats nearly blew a big lead against Miami, which looks worse now because the Dolphins have looked pretty awful since. And their blowout against the Texans was certainly aided by the tough travel spot for the road team with a young QB on a short week.
Yet the markets are viewing New England like those three wins were as dominant as could be, against elite competition. They weren’t. And when a very public team like the Patriots go 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS to open the season, the markets force bettors to lay a premium to back New England.
New England’s national TV games were both double digit pointspread covers (Arizona and Houston), but the Bills national TV game was a bad home loss to the Jets, another key piece of the ‘added value on Buffalo’ piece of the equation. And the markets love Belichick and hate Rex Ryan; yet another factor inflating this pointspread by a notch or two.
Five of the last seven meetings between these two teams have been one score games. The Bills gave the Pats fits in both meetings last year. The Bills offense has gotten untracked, hanging 64 points on two solid defensive foes over the past two weeks, including their ’save our season’ win against Arizona last Sunday. And the Bills powerful defensive line is poised to put pressure on Garappolo, forcing a young QB into mistakes, the same way they forced an elite QB into numerous mistakes last week. I’m taking the points, but I’ve got a percentage of my personal wager on the moneylline — Buffalo is live to pull off the upset. Take the Bills +7
Article by Teddy Davis Handicapper-Vegas
