Mountain West Play-On Games for 2008

[SoonerBS]

Utah

Utah was 9-4 last season, but if were not for Johnson getting injured and missing some early games, they could have very easily went 12-1 on the season. I think they would have still lost the game to BYU simply because of the importance of the game and the fact that it was played in Provo. Offensively, Utah returns 8 and shouldn't miss a beat offensively. All the skill positions are back with an exception of a TE and WR, but they usually always have guys to fill those positions. They also return most of the offensive line which is a big factor in my handicapping. Defensively they only return 6, but with the exception of the LB corps, they look to be solid. The leading LB is back, but the other two will be replaced. I didn't know this until reading Steele's magazine, but Utah didn't even try to recruit a LB this year, so they must seem to think they have the personnel to compete with this year. Last season the defense held opponents to only 16 ppg! If they come close to that success this season, and if Johnson can stay healthy, Utah will be the MWC Champions.

-- Utah vs. UNLV September 6th -- Last season, with Johnson out at QB, Utah went to UNLV and got beat 27-0. Even though this game follows the Michigan opener, I don't look for Utah to forget the UNLV loss of last year. My prediction: Utah wins 37-6.

-- Utah at Air Force September 20th -- I don't like to play on many favorites that go on the road, but two factors have me playing on this game: the fact that Air Force beat Utah early last season whenever Johnson was out and the fact that AF will be way down this season. My prediction: Utah wins 32-17.

-- Utah vs. Oregon State October 2nd -- This is a Thursday night televised game (although it may be on the Versus channel). Oregon State is down this year and Utah should be focused coming off a non-con game with Weber St. My prediction: Utah wins 28-20.

-- Utah vs. TCU November 6th -- This is a Thursday night game with big ramifications -- if BYU should falter a game or two, this could be for the MWC Title. Even so, this is an important game and it's being played on Thursday night. My prediction: Utah wins 32-21.

 

[SoonerBS]

Brigham Young

Last season, UCLA and Tulsa took advantage of a new BYU QB, Max Hall, just getting his feet wet as he attempted to fill the shoes of John Beck. As a result, BYU dropped 2 out of their first three games. Then, they went on and never lost and never looked back. This year, BYU brings back 9 of last year's starters on offense and looks to be as good or better. Defensively, though, is another matter. They only bring back 3 on defense which concerns me. Mendenhall has proven to be a great defensive coach and will probably patch together a decent defense, but I have my doubts to them being as good as their 18.5 ppg average they allowed their opponents last season. Many publicists are making BYU undefeated and giving them a BCS bowl at the end of the season. I'm predicting they make no better than 2nd in the conference and possibly even third. They play both their contenders for the conference title on the road -- at TCU and Utah. They will lose at least one of those games and possibly two while the defense rebuilds and gains experience for a run next season.

-- BYU vs. UCLA September 13th -- BYU ought to be looking at UCLA this way - if they hadn't beaten them last year, there might have been a chance for a BCS bowl. They owe UCLA a spanking and I think they will look forward to giving them one here. UCLA will be rebuilding this year and BYU gets to catch them early. My prediction: BYU wins 32-7.

-- BYU vs. San Diego St November 8th -- SDSU is going to be a good team to fade again this season as I look for them to be no better than last year, and the year before that, and the year before that . . . . The BYU defense should be starting to figure some things out by now and this is a smooth series of games in a four game stretch between TCU and Utah. My prediction: BYU wins 48-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Texas Christian

One thing you can expect from TCU nearly every year is that they will be solid defensively. Last year they only allowed their opponents 18.7 ppg. This year will likely be the same as they bring back 7 starters and fill the gaps with some talented athletes. Offensively I look for them to be better than last season if the QBs can keep healthy. What is really interesting about the top three in the MWC this season is that Utah is being given my prediction as conference champs based mainly on schedule. They will play both BYU and TCU at home. TCU has a really good chance of finishing 2nd in the conference and may even surprise everyone by winning conference. The only thing that lies as an obstacle is 6 road games this season and one of them is at Utah. I really like this TCU team this season and will be watching the lines closely through the year.

-- TCU vs. BYU October 16th -- This is a Thursday Night Versus channel game (I think) and I like the home team. TCU has a more balanced team than BYU this season in every aspect. BYU has the better QB, but TCU may top them at all the other positions - especially defensively. While this will likely be a short line and a close game, I think TCU wins it and covers. My prediction: TCU wins 23-17.

-- TCU vs. Air Force November 22 -- Poor AF finishes the season with BYU at home and TCU on the road back to back. While this might be a good time for AF to play these two teams since they will be rebuilding this season, there is a world of difference between the these two teams compared to last year. Last year this game went into OT and AF won by 3. This year . . . . My prediction: TCU wins 42-17.

 

[SoonerBS]

One thing to remember about the MWC this year, there is BYU, Utah and TCU and then there is all the rest. There is a big power difference between these three and the rest of the league. Saying this though, there will undoubtedly be some ATS plays with the rest of the teams. I'll finish this up tomorrow some time.

 

[SoonerBS]

Just be patient on the rest of the teams and even the other conferences, guys. I have run into a distraction lately called "work" and I haven't had time to finish this project. But, if I don't get back to it some time this week, next week I ship my family out for a week to stay with the inlaws and I will have plenty of time then.

 

[TomBrady#1]

Utah

Utah was 9-4 last season, but if were not for Johnson getting injured and missing some early games, they could have very easily went 12-1 on the season. I think they would have still lost the game to BYU simply because of the importance of the game and the fact that it was played in Provo. Offensively, Utah returns 8 and shouldn't miss a beat offensively. All the skill positions are back with an exception of a TE and WR, but they usually always have guys to fill those positions. They also return most of the offensive line which is a big factor in my handicapping. Defensively they only return 6, but with the exception of the LB corps, they look to be solid. The leading LB is back, but the other two will be replaced. I didn't know this until reading Steele's magazine, but Utah didn't even try to recruit a LB this year, so they must seem to think they have the personnel to compete with this year. Last season the defense held opponents to only 16 ppg! If they come close to that success this season, and if Johnson can stay healthy, Utah will be the MWC Champions.

-- Utah vs. UNLV September 6th -- Last season, with Johnson out at QB, Utah went to UNLV and got beat 27-0. Even though this game follows the Michigan opener, I don't look for Utah to forget the UNLV loss of last year. My prediction: Utah wins 37-6.

-- Utah at Air Force September 20th -- I don't like to play on many favorites that go on the road, but two factors have me playing on this game: the fact that Air Force beat Utah early last season whenever Johnson was out and the fact that AF will be way down this season. My prediction: Utah wins 32-17.

-- Utah vs. Oregon State October 2nd -- This is a Thursday night televised game (although it may be on the Versus channel). Oregon State is down this year and Utah should be focused coming off a non-con game with Weber St. My prediction: Utah wins 28-20.

-- Utah vs. TCU November 6th -- This is a Thursday night game with big ramifications -- if BYU should falter a game or two, this could be for the MWC Title. Even so, this is an important game and it's being played on Thursday night. My prediction: Utah wins 32-21.

Nice job as usual. Hey how about the big call on Mich/Utah early??? It should be VERY interesting. IF you posted it already, I apologize but I have not seen it. Thanks.

 

[SoonerBS]

Nice job as usual. Hey how about the big call on Mich/Utah early??? It should be VERY interesting. IF you posted it already, I apologize but I have not seen it. Thanks.

I'm really hesitant to post "road games" as plays this early in the season, Brady. I have posted a few that I felt very confident in playing, but I prefer to post home plays as "play-on" games to watch for. Obviously, whenever the lines come out for the season openers, I may change my mind, but for right now, Utah vs. Michigan is a "no play" for me. I've learned not to underestimate Rodriguez's abilities with any team. Michigan is not going to come out as unprepared for their opener as they did last season AND the Big House is a tough venue to play in. Like I said, I'll have to see a line . . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

I'm really hesitant to post "road games" as plays this early in the season, Brady. I have posted a few that I felt very confident in playing, but I prefer to post home plays as "play-on" games to watch for. Obviously, whenever the lines come out for the season openers, I may change my mind, but for right now, Utah vs. Michigan is a "no play" for me. I've learned not to underestimate Rodriguez's abilities with any team. Michigan is not going to come out as unprepared for their opener as they did last season AND the Big House is a tough venue to play in. Like I said, I'll have to see a line . . . . .

Although Utah is certainly capable of knocking off Michigan, I didn't list it in my possible first game upsets for this specefic reason..We can be sure that Rodriguez will have some surprises waiting for Utah in that game..And although Michigan will be a team in transistion, the idea that Utah won't know exactly what to expect out of a Rodriguez coached team in this first game without any game film to go on could work against them. Michigan should be very focused in trying to get their coach his first win, and to get off to a good start.

 

[SoonerBS]

Although Utah is certainly capable of knocking off Michigan, I didn't list it in my possible first game upsets for this specefic reason..We can be sure that Rodriguez will have some surprises waiting for Utah in that game..And although Michigan will be a team in transistion, the idea that Utah won't know exactly what to expect out of a Rodriguez coached team in this first game without any game film to go on could work against them. Michigan should be very focused in trying to get their coach his first win, and to get off to a good start.

I think so, too. I would much rather find some good "home team" plays to play as openers instead of trying to pick a road team to cover. Home openers are very motivational to teams. Right now, the only game I am considering playing as a road opener is USC at Virginia. But, even in that game, I need a line of USC -21 or better or it may quickly become a "no play."

 

[GoSooners]

I think so, too. I would much rather find some good "home team" plays to play as openers instead of trying to pick a road team to cover. Home openers are very motivational to teams. Right now, the only game I am considering playing as a road opener is USC at Virginia. But, even in that game, I need a line of USC -21 or better or it may quickly become a "no play."

A couple TD's is usually my max to give for favored road teams. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if USC was as much as a 4 td favorite in that game.

 

[TomBrady#1]

Ok guys thanks. Yeah it is a tough call early and Mich is still mich and not really sure what to expect from them. The line will be interesting as some have speculated from 4-7 or so. Good thread.

 

[FairWarning]

Michigan basically has 3-4 of their OL back and nothing else on offense. The defense is basically intact. If Utah can put up 21-24 points, I like my chances.

 

[SoonerBS]

UNLV


This is a team that only produced 18.2 ppg average last season as they finished the season 2-10. However, whenever you look at the possible reasons, the offense has to be blamed. In a conference where high-scoring is a must, the last thing you want to see are these stats: last in the MWC in scoring, and red-zone success (70.3%), and finished eighth in first downs and total offense per game. In their defense though, UNLV hasn't had a consistent QB for 3 years due to a plethora of injuries. They bring back two experienced starters at this position this season with Clayton and Dixon. If one of these guys can emerge to take on the starting role and remain healthy, I think UNLV will see a big turnaround from their last 4 years in a row of winning only 2 games. Everything else on the offensive side of the ball is solid. Defensively, they return only 5, but they fill in the gaps with some experienced players and should be good enough to help the offense out. I don't know if they will get to a bowl this season, but they will definitely win more than 2 games.

-- UNLV vs. Utah St August 30th -- Utah St, though defensively tough this season, has an offense that will be on par with UNLV's worse years. This whole UNLV team needs to win this game off the bat if they want to get their season started on the right foot and have a chance to finish with a decent record. UNLV is actually 2-9 SU in this series, but UNLV is heading up while Utah St is spinning its wheels. My prediction: UNLV wins 28-14. Also play UNDER on this game.

-- UNLV vs. Air Force October 18th -- Air Force is in a serious rebuilding year this season and while I am impressed with Troy Calhoun's abilities to get the most out of his team, I think by this point in the season UNLV should be in a good rythym (sp) offensively and will give Air Force fits. My prediction: UNLV wins 37-17.

 

[SoonerBS]

New Mexico


New Mexico is just one of those teams I put in the "tough to beat" category of teams. They may not always have the best athletes, but they are going to play you tough and eek out some wins sometimes where they shouldn't. Part of the reason of them being this way is because of their head coach, Rocky Long. Long has been the HC at New Mexico for 11 years -- that's quite a tenure in today's "what have you done for me lately" NCAA Football ranks. Long is great at preparing his players for games and assuring that whoever he puts on the field defensively, they will be tough. Offensively this season, he brings back his two top skill players in QB, Porterie and RB, Ferguson. The offensive line will have tons of playing experience if not returning starters. The only weakness on offense is the lack of experience at WR as the two best WRs of last year went on. Defensively they return only 5 starters, but with Long's style of defensive, all the starters this season will have seen extensive game experience. The defense will be tough again.

-- New Mexico vs. TCU August 30th -- The Lobos have had this game penciled in since last season's embarrassing loss at Ft. Worth 37-0. It was the first game in 65 games that NM did not score and the first time in conference game since 1992. I'm hesitant to use the "R" word in conference play, but revenge will be on the minds of New Mexico here and it's going to be a tough road game for TCU starting out of the gates. My prediction: TCU wins 28-27. (New Mexico should be a short home dog in this game.)

-- New Mexico vs. Texas A&M September 6th -- It's not likely to have a letdown so soon in the season so I'm not afraid to play on New Mexico in this spot following a big game against TCU the week before. Texas A&M is a "fadeable" team this season and this will be their first road game. In the last 5 years, New Mexico is 4-2 ATS in non-conf home games! They are absolutely tough at home in non-conf games and they catch a very beatable A&M team in a down year here. My prediction: New Mexico wins 31-16.

-- New Mexico vs. Utah Nov. 1st -- Let me explain my thoughts here on this game -- teams that take an off weak and have a big game two weeks down the road will sometimes use one week to prepare for the big game (in their off week) and the other week to prepare for their upcoming opponent. Utah has an off week prior to New Mexico, but they have a crucial Thursday night game against TCU the next week. I think their focus may be looking toward TCU in this game and New Mexico catches them off guard. My prediction: Utah wins 38-36.

 

[ToujoursPret]

Sooner, the weirdest stat on my "Oddities List" is that Sanford @ UNLV is 1-7 ATS (.125) vs WAC teams in the first month of the season the L3Y (his tenure there). Almost as weird as the "ei" instead of "ie" in weird.

 

[SoonerBS]

Wyoming


The good news is that Wyoming returns 14 starters and 45 lettermen from last season. The bad news is that Head Coach Joe Glenn just doesn't seem to be getting the job done in Wyoming. At best, Wyoming is a .500 team, but they have only been above .500 one year in Glenn's last 5 years. They come so close every year only to fall short. 2004 was by far their best season as they went 7-4 and beat UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl. Their offense sputtered along last season with inconsistencies at the QB position. They adapted a pass happy offense whenever Glenn started coaching here so they have relied on the pass a great deal. That's good if your QB is consistent, but Karsten Sween was anything but consistent last season. He ended up being the MWC's lowest rated passer at 108.9 and his interception rate was a dismal 17. Offensive line inexperienced played a factor in this, but Wyoming will have to find some better answers at QB this season. They do have 3 good prospects that should push for the job including Sween. Wyoming has also switched to a more "power running" game this season to utilize their good RB, Devin Moore and take less pressure off the QB. With a more experienced offensive line and more balanced offense, I think the offensive production will improve this season. Defensively, the only question mark will be primarily at the linebacker position where they have to replace two starters from last season. Still, the defense, as usual for Wyoming, looks to be pretty solid and has some talent on it.

-- Wyoming vs. Ohio August 30th -- Ohio is breaking in a new QB on an offense that will be much more inexperienced this season than the last two seasons. I expect to see Ohio's offense sputter poorly in this opener, but their defense should be decent again. Wyoming should not only get the win and cover here, but this may be a very good UNDER play as well! My prediction: Wyoming wins 26-10. (Wyoming had 3 TOs in this game last season that still resulted in a 34-33 road win for the Cowboys.)

-- Wyoming vs. Air Force September 6th -- This is the first road game for the new AF quarterback and for the entire AF team who returns only 8 starters this season. If Wyoming ever wanted to take AF to the woodshed, this year and this game would be the opportunity. My prediction: Wyoming wins 34-17.

 

[SoonerBS]

Sooner, the weirdest stat on my "Oddities List" is that Sanford @ UNLV is 1-7 ATS (.125) vs WAC teams in the first month of the season the L3Y (his tenure there). Almost as weird as the "ei" instead of "ie" in weird.

I'm not much of a trend player, but that is pretty overwhelming. Interesting . . . . .

 

[SoonerBS]

Air Force


Last year around this time, I was touting AF as a fade team because of their change in Head Coaches and what I thought would be a change in the option game scheme. Air Force going 9-4 SU & 9-3 ATS shows that I was very wrong!

I fell into the trap of "fade all the teams that take on new head coaches and drastic scheme changes" that gets touted on these boards every season. After doing some research on what went wrong with that prediction, I have decided that two things happened with Air Force:

1.) Air Force players are no dummies. They cannot get into these military academies unless they can make high grades. They are also very disciplined. Last season, they had several returning starters and many of them seniors -- including their veteran QB, Shaun Carney. This equated to them learning what few new schemes Calhoun introduced and they never skipped a beat offensively or defensively. Don't fade senior laden teams from a school where brains come before athletic ability. Lesson learned.

2.) Calhoun lied to us. In preseason it was all about the new passing schemes he was installing in the spread offense at AF and was replacing the triple-option style that DeBerry had run for ages. It was all bullshit. Calhoun was smarter than us all. He kept a lot of the option game in his system because he knew these players were better adapted to that style. He also took advantage of a senior team to implement enough "twist" to the offense to keep his opponents off balance. Genius.

That all worked with 26 seniors and 13 full time starters, but this year is different. This IS the year to fade AF as last season's feats will not be repeated. They bring back only 3 starters on offense and 5 on defense. They bring back only 23 lettermen from a year ago. And, even though there are 13 seniors on this team this season, they are not nearly as inexperienced or talented as the bunch was last year. I have no play-on games for this year's team.

 

[SoonerBS]

San Diego St


Every year we hear the same thing, "This is going to be the breakout year for San Diego St and coach Chuck '3rd and' Long." Every season it's the same results -- shit. This season is much of the same. On offense they return only 3 starters. O'Connell is gone at QB this season and he was about the only bright spot on the team. They break in someone new at nearly every position on offense this season. Defensively last season they were last in the league in points allowed (34.4), passing defense (256.7 ypg), rushing defense (241.5 ypg) and total defense (498.2). The fact that they are returning 8 starters off last year's defense is being touted as a "positive" for this season's outlook. Tell me how that is a positive?

It's another year with the same results in store for SDSU this season -- shit.

 

[ToujoursPret]

Sooner, I'm a trend player the first few game of the year until teams establish their stats 'cause let's face it, we can speculate but really don't know how teams will gel with the talent (or lack of it) they put on the field. Coaching trends are more predictable based on the past.