More MAC Fun on Wednesday

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Life is Good
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Two more that I will write up. Record in tracking forum as always.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS +7 Over Toledo

This game sets up a little bit like yesterday's WM/Kent game. A high powered, more gifted athletic team with a suspect defense going on the road to face a MAC opponent with a losing record. Vegas clearly notices the difference between Northern and Kent here, as NIU only getting 1 TD. When looking at recent statistics - both teams have a balanced offense (Toledo 52%, NIU 59% rushing). Toledo averaging 531 YDS last 4, Northern averaging 453 last 4. Toledo giving up 449, Northern 426. The difference is who the 4 opponents have been. Northern has played WM in the last 4 games, where Toledo has not, giving NIU an advantage in SOS both offensively and defensively. So, when adjusting for that, I actually have NIU defense much stronger, and offenses fairly similar ranking wise. So, you get points, at home, against a team with bad defense and some lookahead possibility. Also, not that I factor this that much, but NIU 6-0 over last 7 years as home dogs. Don't be surprised to see the upset here.

BOWLING GREEN/AKRON UNDER 71.5

Sometimes playing the under is painful. But I really don't understand why this is so high. Both teams are passing teams (BG 44% run last 4, Akron 45%), so there will be some throws in this one. However, over last 4, I have Akron in Top 20 in the nation in schedule adjusted pass D (YPA). Couple that with the fact that these two offenses are ranked very low in schedule adjusted YPG (Akron 118th, BG 76th), and looking at scores - BG games have only reached 70 once in last 5 games, and Akron games haven't hit 70 since the end of September (6 games), the under looks like the play here.


I would go 3 units under, and 2 units NIU.

Good luck to all,

HW
 

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Good luck heat wave, sounds like you have a read on mac games!
 

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Well if it works, keep doing it! I have always seemed to be lost on college games
 

Life is Good
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Not really a MAC guy, but look at all games in the same way - college football to me is about team matchups and overall team stats. Bad defenses will not stop decent offenses and good defenses can shut down even the best offenses. Not rocket science I know, but it seems to work.
 

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2 more Mac attack games.

Good luck!
 

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