x-posted from my daily thread as I think there's some relevant info, and am interested in forum thoughts.
2U CHI 1P ML -157
1U CHI 1P -0.5 +150
Chicago 1st periods at home this year: 13GF - 8GA, and have only trailed twice after the first in their 12 home games. 1-0 to Tampa Bay, and 1-0 to Winnipeg.
Montreal has scored the fewest 1P goals in the league this season, with 8. On the road they've scored 4, and conceded 12 in their 14 road games. Even more significant, is that they've only led at the 1st intermission only once on the road - 1-0 over Boston a couple of weeks ago. They've trailed 8 times.
2U MTL TT U2.5 -140
Chicago has only given up more than 2 goals at home once this season in 12 games, and that was 3 to Washington on Nov 7. They lead the league in home goals against, averaging just 1.5.
Montreal has scored more than 2 on the road just 4 times in 14 games (and all 4 times they scored 4). The teams they did it against?: Toronto (who gives up 3.13 Home goals per game), Philadelphia (2.75), Detroit (2.33) and Colorado (2.92). Other than Detroit, the other 3 aren't exactly defensive stalwarts, regardless of where they play. They have averaged 1.92 goals scored per road game this year.
Obviously the juicy line reflects that more often than not Montreal goes under the 2.5 TT. However, as a value player I have to decide if I think they go under the 2.5 more often than 58% of the time. If they do, I'll turn a profit. I have no idea if it will cash tonight, but I think there's a good bit of value in the line.
Same principle applies with the 1P line above. I need Chicago to outscore Montreal in the first period at least 61% of the time (if they are tied the bet is a push). Given the way both teams are playing, again I see some decent value there.
As always any and all opinions are welcome. This is a forum after all. And, it must be said, I have a really shitty record historically when I make these sort of detailed write-ups haha, so do your own analysis too!
GLTA
2U CHI 1P ML -157
1U CHI 1P -0.5 +150
Chicago 1st periods at home this year: 13GF - 8GA, and have only trailed twice after the first in their 12 home games. 1-0 to Tampa Bay, and 1-0 to Winnipeg.
Montreal has scored the fewest 1P goals in the league this season, with 8. On the road they've scored 4, and conceded 12 in their 14 road games. Even more significant, is that they've only led at the 1st intermission only once on the road - 1-0 over Boston a couple of weeks ago. They've trailed 8 times.
2U MTL TT U2.5 -140
Chicago has only given up more than 2 goals at home once this season in 12 games, and that was 3 to Washington on Nov 7. They lead the league in home goals against, averaging just 1.5.
Montreal has scored more than 2 on the road just 4 times in 14 games (and all 4 times they scored 4). The teams they did it against?: Toronto (who gives up 3.13 Home goals per game), Philadelphia (2.75), Detroit (2.33) and Colorado (2.92). Other than Detroit, the other 3 aren't exactly defensive stalwarts, regardless of where they play. They have averaged 1.92 goals scored per road game this year.
Obviously the juicy line reflects that more often than not Montreal goes under the 2.5 TT. However, as a value player I have to decide if I think they go under the 2.5 more often than 58% of the time. If they do, I'll turn a profit. I have no idea if it will cash tonight, but I think there's a good bit of value in the line.
Same principle applies with the 1P line above. I need Chicago to outscore Montreal in the first period at least 61% of the time (if they are tied the bet is a push). Given the way both teams are playing, again I see some decent value there.
As always any and all opinions are welcome. This is a forum after all. And, it must be said, I have a really shitty record historically when I make these sort of detailed write-ups haha, so do your own analysis too!
GLTA
