Money Management

[elroy]

Elroy uses a money management system that many may question, but it works. If you practice picking games for a good amount of time, anyone can use it. Once your edge has been developed as a handicapper, place bets on every game on a full slate of games, or near it. For example, choose a side on every one of the 14 NFL games each week. You will average a winning week, and grow your account exponentially. On a slate of 20 games with a $100 account, for example, you place $5 on each game. When it grows, you bet the entire account again. You will never hit a losing week if you have developed a true edge, and your account will be through the roof after the end of the season. The more you invest, you more you come up with in the end.

The myth's behind "The Elroy Method":

Myth 1) One week of betting your entire account and losing can destroy your account.

Fact 1) One losing week will not destroy your account. A minor losing week will set you back a small percentage, and, the chances of losing a large amount is small since the method involves multiple events, and an overall edge is present.

Myth 2) A real edge can only be present in a few games, since not every game gives good enough value.

Fact 2) When pressed, a handicapper can pick a side in any game, and weaker/stronger selections are over emphasized. Strength in numbers is present, as the more games that are chosen increases the chances of a winning week.

 

[track1]

mcdonalds french fries are better than burger kings fries but burger king has a better dollar menu

 

[Texas-Winners]

what in the hell are you talking about. you need to explain more.

 

[elroy]

Tough Call

Now, that's a tough call. McDonalds fries have always been the best, but Wendy's dollar menu is pretty sweet. Burger King is good sometimes, but Wendy's has a special place in my heart. Besides the cholesterol, of course.

 

[elroy]

Hmm

You bet your entire account on a large set of games, such as 14 in an NFL week, or where you have several games in one day, like 11+ in the NBA. Larger sets will give you a better chance to make money by allowing your skill in capping games to show up, opposed to picking only a 5 games a week like most people do. Does that help? I hope so.

 

[Texas-Winners]

ya a little, so what do u do in week2. bet the same teams again or pick new games and increase your bets to 10 dollars a game. just trying to get a feel of what you are tyring to do. if you increase your money the next week, what happens when you get destroyed and lose your whole bank roll.

 

[elroy]

Eh, not quite...

Your picks can differ every week. This has nothing to do with picking the same teams at all.

Here's a good example...

If you win 20% on your account (which is realistic with this system) in week 1 when you had $100, you will now have $120. Say week 2 contains 14 games. You will risk $8.57 on each of the 14 games. You increase your account again by 20%, now you have $144. This continues for the whole season. Of course you can cash out whatever you want, whenever you want, but to keep watching the account grow you should keep everything in the account. You will not have a horrible week because you are picking 14 games. At least with me, ive picked nfl games for a good amount of time that i average 9/14 an NFL week. Even if i have a bad week like 8/14, im still making money, and sometimes i get those 10/14 weeks which are always fun. You dont have to hit 90% ats to win in sports betting, if you average 9/14 you'll be fine, and you won't be hit hard by losing weeks. Hope that helps. Thanks.

 

[elroy]

An addition...

I don't know if this will confuse the issue or what, but here's some theory on it. According to "Normal" distribution (probability theory), you will not even hit a losing week at all. This is using an average of 9/14, or 64%, there is no theorhetical distribution under 54% which is where you'd have to be to have a losing week. (Of course I believe this is only valid when you are playing the same amount of games each week). Even more proof that this works. I will keep the board updated on my progress throughout the season.

 

[NoLimits]

I always hated Elroy,FUCK ELROY!
George Jetson was my favorite

 

[elroy]

Never heard of anyone hating a little kid so much.

 

[mhk]

"Bet small, but bet 'em all"... As you account grows, you will want to scale away from 5% per game, imo..

 

[SubwaySam]

Elroy, let me start by saying I'm a huge proponent of putting the same amount down on each game, so I'm with you on that front.

Now, if you can hit at a rate of 64% playing every game in the long run, congrats. Understand that your system won't work for the majority of us, as our bell curves tend to find their way below the 54% you refer to, and the chances of having a few bad weeks in a row are all too realistic. The last thing you want to do is deplete your bankroll. When it's gone, it's gone, and you eliminate any chance you'd have at making a "comeback".

My theory: If the game has a positive expectation, play it. If it doesn't, don't.

McDonald's fries, hands down. I've come a long way since I worked there, but I still have some scars from that hot oil.

 

[thecruncher]

64%!!! Are you Matthew McConnaughesseyhay in that new movie coming out? lol. 64% would be a fantastic percentage with such high volume. I did hit 58% last year playing about 12 plays a week from weeks 4-16 and the playoffs, which added up to many, many plus Units, but I still only bet 1-2% of my bankroll on any one play, for the reasons Subway Sam just mentioned. The only exception to this would be when you're starting with a small bankroll and feel it's worth the risk to jumpstart your bankroll, but even then, 10% per play tops.

 

[Texas-Winners]

ya i have been waiting to hear what some of you thought about this. i cant hit 50%, how in the hell am i going to hit 60something%. what if you have a kick ass week the first week and you are betting 5 a play. the next week your amount per play goes up and you get your ass kicked. whoops down again. if you think you are that good and can hit 64% every year, PLEASE GIVE ME YOU NUMBER, I WILL PAY LOTS OF MONEY FOR THAT INFO.


gl
tw

 

[Mistermj]

Analysis and mathematics of "Grinding"

I've been preaching this approach to wagering for a quite a while....most people just don't get it.

I think the main problem is "most" bettors aren't really dedicated to researching and implementing what it actually takes to "beat the spread" over time. And its less exciting for most people to have all their bankroll spread out...rather than a few large bets hoping to "hit the big one" this week.

In my opinion....this is the "ONLY" way any bettor can ever hope to come out ahead. You have to find a small advantage...and wager as many wagers as you can with it....with sound money management in the neighborhood of 1-2% of your bankroll ....MAX!

Over time...your small advantage will make money with much less risk. But it takes patience and a willingness to play it for the long haul. Of course you also need at least a 55% advantage to make it all worth it.

I think its easier to find a 55% advantage on a large number of wagers...than it is to find a larger advantage on a small number of wagers. If you wager too much....sooner or later a bad streak will wipe you out.

Admit it...its happened to every single person reading this thread. There has to be a better way!

Here is some more information for people who are interested. It explains it in much more in depth.

I don't want to violate the TOS here...but I will say you can also find out more information and a live example of this theory if you look around my profile a little bit.

<B><BIG><BIG><BIG>WINNING PERCENTAGES</BIG></BIG></BIG></B>​

<B><BIG><BIG><BIG></BIG></BIG></BIG></B>​

<B><BIG><BIG><BIG>http://www.professionalgambler.com/Winperct.html</BIG></BIG></BIG></B>​

<B><BIG><BIG><BIG></BIG></BIG></BIG></B>​

<B><BIG><BIG><BIG>A BIT ABOUT BETTING SYSTEMS</BIG></BIG></BIG></B>​

<B><BIG><BIG><BIG></BIG></BIG></BIG></B>​

<B><BIG><BIG><BIG>http://www.professionalgambler.com/binomial.html</BIG></BIG></BIG></B>​

 

[LucaBrasi]

J.R. Miller...............is that you?

If it is, can I have the money back you cost me because you couldn't find you ass with a funnel...............

 

[thecruncher]

I won't admit it, MJ, I've never gone broke! I do agree with you in making a fair number of plays every week for 1-2%

 

[elroy]

Hey cruncher,

I just wanted to say that i also believe you shouldnt bet more than 10 percent on each play, and if you were to use my system for an NFL week, you are risking just over 7% each play. And, I guarantee you that if you are a good capper that would average 9/14 in an NFL week, you will come out on top majorly with this over the long haul.

P.S. If you were to start out with $100 and grow your account at 20% (a little less than 9/14 games on average) each NFL week, youd end up with $2,218 at the end of the season. Now, if you wanna start out with $1k, you'll have $22,186 and the end, as you'd be a rich man ($221,861) if you invested $10k.

 

[mhk]

I also thought that was JR Miller was posting, lol... I do agree with the philosophy though..

 

[Mistermj]

LOL....sorry for the confusion.

I am not JR Miller.

But the way I posted his articles does leave the impression that they were mine.