Monday

[Coast2Coast]

Sunday was limbo day with a couple undahs. Today is over day. May have a few sides later.

Buffalo-Northern Illinois over 137
Played these two teams over this same number a month or so ago when they played in Buffalo and it went over by 30. So what's changed? Buffalo a great over team because they play reasonably fast, have good balance to score inside and out, and are very physical...they draw and commit a lot of fouls. They are a great over team when they play certain teams that will play fast with them. NIU is a decent three point shooting team who seemingly plays its best when they can play fast. Their shooting struggles the last few weeks on the road have come mostly when they had to play tempo teams. Shouldn't have that problem tonight.

Rider-Niagara over 161
Both games between these teams went way over this number. Niagara plays no defense (48%) and tries to get its shots off inside 15 seconds. Rider plays a little more D, but not much (45%). Both teams are 44% shooting teams, 37% from trey and very good (75%) foul shooters. Offenses are good, not great, but both defenses blow. Form says these teams will have more than 20 combined treys and about 30 made Fts. So with those numbers, we will need 56 made baskets. With an expected shot total of 130, that translates to 43% shooting required to take this over. With two teams that have a history of shooting over 50% against each other, I'll take this over...even though Rider is playing their third game in three nights...creating a possible slight "tired legs" situation that usually causes me to look under.

 

[cincy_]

I was going to play the over too - but then started to wonder why it wasn't higher. Then it hit me that maybe its because (1) an arena that is neither teams' home gym, so they need to adjust (Niagara's game yesterday was nowhere near the total) (2) the final game in conference finals and National TV = jitters and (3) final game = tired legs

 

[Coast2Coast]

Nice to see you Hugg. Been a while. May I make a request that perhaps you find time in your busy schedule to teach Jason Maxiell free throw shooting? He bricked two at the end of the game on Saturday...when just one make would have secured a cover. I got the push, but........

All very good points as to why the Rider-Niagara number isn't higher. And I suspect that conventional wisdom is at least partly responsible for why under players bought this down two points from its 163 opening #.

 

[Coast2Coast]

At 6 ET, the majority of bets made so far at Pinnacle, WWTS, Oasis, Bowmans and Sportbet are with all the favorites, with one exception. Creighton opened at pick and moved up to -2 , then SMU was bought all the way to -1.5. That is a 3.5 point move on SMS after the early move on Creighton. At this time, 64% of the bets on that game have been made on Creighton.

Three favorites have more than 75% of the bets -- <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on">Niagara</st1lace>, ODU and Gonzaga. Yesterday, five teams (Rider, <st1:City w:st="on">Gonzaga</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">Illinois</st1:State>, <st1lace w:st="on">Southern Illinois</st1lace> and Wake) had backing of more than 75% at tipoff. Those teams went 2-3 ATS against the closing number.

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
56% <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Bowling Green</st1lace></st1:City>
62% <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Kent</st1:country-region></st1lace>
54% <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Akron</st1lace></st1:City>
56% ULL
72% <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Ohio</st1lace></st1:State>
57% <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City>
80% <st1lace w:st="on">Niagara</st1lace>
64% Creighton
80% ODU
58% <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Denver</st1lace></st1:City>
81% Gonzaga

 

[Coast2Coast]

Will fade the three 80%ers tonight. 1/2 unit plays on Rider, VCU and St. Mary's and buy points where appropriate to get the numbers to whole numbers under 120. (All buys at Pinny).....

VCU +4, -112
St. Mary's +6, -119
Rider +5, -119

 

[GameBreaker]

Will fade the three 80%ers tonight. 1/2 unit plays on Rider, VCU and St. Mary's.

atta boy...sounds like a winning system.

Thanks for the info as well...good stuff

 

[cincy_]

Coast2Coast

I think that UC missing FTs has more to do Coach Huggins system/philosophy late in games than Jason "Baby Shaq" Maxiell.

If the Bearcats are up and expect the other team to foul, Coach doesn't believe in passing the ball to the best free throw shooter (James White is 80%+), because you risk a turnover. He thinks that even if Shaq goes to the line, 1/2 shots will be made and the other team gets the ball 90 ft away and you can set up your defense. A turnover trying to pass it can cause major damage.

Something to use when you are thinking of taking the other team as a 9-12 point dog

 

[outhousetim]

I got very lucky vs VCU. I think you deserved it. With you on the Rider,but I'll pass the Zag game, although I understand the reasoniong. My key to big day is Creighton. They LOVE MARCH! Tourney tough, and capped out a 6 point win. We'll see.

Good luck!

 

[Coast2Coast]

nice job on creighton, tim. I liked em too. Said so on another thread earlier today and was then scolded by someone who said I didn't understand how SHARP the money was on SMS. Great call by you, as usual.

 

[Tulsa]

LOL Coast2Coast!! I saw that too....Now...It is not only very sharp money...but super, RAZOR sharp money!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL GREAT JOB...keep it up. tulsa

 

[outhousetim]

Thank you Coast

People just don't understand how successful creighton is this time of year. Is that now 5-0 in tourney champ games!

It's nice with the 5********* wins.

Keep up the good work!