Monday Plays

[Coast2Coast]

Sunday: 1-1

Chattanooga-3 vs. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Charleston, 1 unit</st1lace></st1:City>

The UTC Mocs might have been caught looking ahead to this one by Elon on Saturday, but I think they snap their three-game losing streak in the Roundhouse Monday night. The Mocs are only 2-3 ATS as home chalk in the conference, but they were double digit favorites in all five of those games. Here, the linesmaker says <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Charleston</st1:City></st1lace> would be a 1 pt. favorite on a neutral floor. I don’t agree. The Mocs inside game should have the decided edge and both Pugh and Katelynas should have a nice night against a <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Charleston</st1:City></st1lace> team that will both have a bit of a size and power advantage in the paint. The Mocs live by the inside game…and that’s a good thing because they’ve gotten bad shooting from their guards all season The Mocs shoot 50% overall at 29/59 at home, but just 24% from trey on 4/18. Doing the math, the Mocs are 25/41 or 61% from two-point range. That stat is one measure of the power of their inside game. Another indication is rebounding margin. The Mocs outrebound their conference opponents by 10 per game, while C of C outboards SoCon opponents by just 0.5 reb/game. Charleston doesn’t have the power game inside they have had in previous years so they’ve had to live more by the outside shot than in past years…and they’ve shot just 39% on the road and 31% from trey. They haven’t been sterling on the D end either, allowing opponents to shoot 44% and 39% from trey. The <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Charleston</st1lace></st1:City> game historically raises the temperature in the Roundhouse more than any other SoCon opponent. That home juice will help the Mocs end their skid.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Adding:

Connecticut-Syracuse under 143, 1 unit

These are both in the top ten in the nation for field goal % defense at 38.6% and 36.9%. When two of the top ten defensive teams hook up, it’s always worth a look at the under. There have been six such games this year (matching two of the top ten fg% defense teams) and five of the six have gone under. (The only exception was Kansas-Villanova in which Nova got out to a big lead, which changed the dynamics of the game and the length of the possessions). These teams’ defensive stats are not just the result of good performances against early season cupcakes -- they are 40/37% defenses against Big East opponents. Both teams like to play fast when they can, but when these teams hook up, the defenses usually control the tempo. All four games in this series in the last few years have gone under and all but one of them went under this number. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Syracuse</st1lace></st1:City>’s 50% shooting at home might be a small worry, but UConn has the quickness in the backcourt to keep a hand on McNamara and has Charlie V. and Boone inside try to slow down Warrick. UConn will need that kind of defensive effort, because if their 40% road shooting shows up, they’ll need to rely on their defense to keep them in this game.

 

[kidslick]

arrrrrrr


i have a very nice wager on the over 67.5 first half

any thoughts i can hedge it off 68.5 out there now

:monsters-

 

[Coast2Coast]

Kid...Your record is surely better than mine. If you capped it, then ride it. I wouldn't change your pick based on my meager analysis. Hopefully we can both win. good luck to you.

 

[kidslick]

we all gamble here and i do value your input

college basketball is my weakest link, but i am having a very nice season as of date

i played over 67.5 for 3 units. hedge it back off for 2.5 units at 68.5 under

small chance for a middle hit, plus i believe i took this play soley on the reasoning i had over first half cuse the last game they played..:hitting: what was the score 26-22 something like that..

be well kid

 

[beachbum]

Mocs and Cowboys

Hey Coaster,remember a couple weeks ago I told you that i was going to fad COC in their next road conf game,well here it is at Tenn Chat......COC can't win on the road su or ats(conf games).....Mocs-3

Wyoming+2,Sure Mr. Ranger Granger is back.....but these Cowboys were suppose to be an easy game for everyone in the the Mt West,they were picked by most to finish last,well with a win at home tonight they will be in 2nd place and they totally own the Lobos at Laramie.I'm waiting for Joe Public to boast this up a little more before I play this one,hopefully will catch+2.5 and then buy it up to +3points.......Cowboys+3(hopefully)
Beachbum

 

[kidslick]

first half line is now 69.5 and 70


arrrhh:drink:

 

[kidslick]

excellent capping............

brilliant.........

 

[Coast2Coast]

kid, sorry if my opinion caused you to hedge a bit on the cuse-conn total....but we both won like we planned it that way and that's a VERY good thing.

 

[kidslick]

as i said i value the input that you bring to the forum


i make my own decisions and i live with them the line shot up to 140 and you had to play the under


its all good today..