Monday Night

[Coast2Coast]

ETSU pick vs. UTC

I have a losing record on Rx, but haven't been wrong yet on a game involving the Chattanooga Mocs. Hope that string continues here. The Chattanooga Mocs play their third road game in five days Monday Night. The Mocs started their road trip on Thursday night in the hills of Carolina, then had a very long travel to Creighton for a "Bracket Buster" game on Saturday...where they were busted by 20 Creighton treys. Then they left Omaha for ETSU. Have you ever made that trip? It's gotta be at least two flight legs just to get to Roanoke or Knoxville...then a trip by bus or yak to the remote hills of Johnson City. Waiting for them is an ETSU Bucs team that has turned their season around with a nice home win on Saturday over Austin Peay (another BB game)...which was their third straight win after a mid-season losing streak that had pretty much left this team for dead a few weeks ago. During that losing streak, ETSU lost by 34 in the Roundhouse as 10 point dogs.

The Creighton game was the second game this year in which a a team hit 20 or more three-pointers against UTC..and was the 11th time this season an opponent hit double-digit 3’s. OVerall, the Mocs defend the trey at a poor 42%.

That makes this game a poor matchup for the Mocs against an ETSU team that shoots an amazing 47% from trey at home. THAT'S RIGHT...47% FROM TREY...on an average of 8/17. The Bucs shoot 48% from the field at home overall. The Bucs' veteran guards...especially Timmy Smith...should have a big advantage on the Mocs. And this Mocs team is not a great shooting team at all...hitting just 30% of its road treys (29% overall). The Mocs have a strong inside game...as they shoot 58% from two point territory and lead the nation in rebounding margin. However, ETSU has shored up its rebounding recently by outboarding 4 of its last 6 conf. opponents...and is + rebounding margin in the conference. UTC clearly has the edge in the paint...but don't think it's enough to overcome the other advantages ETSU has...

ETSU is playing its final regular season home game in the Southern Conference. Next year, ETSU moves to the Atlantic Sun Conference. The crowd will probably be a little extra juiced for this senior night season finale against their long-time rivals, the Mocs.

Bottom line: I'll back a Bucs team with superior guards that shoot great at home...especially from trey...with a little extra home juice and riding the momentum of a three game win streak...against a Mocs team that is very poor defensively on the perimeter...and who might be a bit tired from a plane,train, bus, car and yak mule road trip.

 

[Roxygurl]

great write up coast2coast. this is a game im wondering about but i think you just sold me on etsu. i make chatt a legit 5 point fav yet this line is a pick em on pinnacle. thats a huge difference. if the boys who sets the lines dont make chatt the fav then they must be thinking what your thinking. good job .

 

[Coast2Coast]

thank you roxy. nothing like kind words from a woman to end a day. i'll be travelling during the game so will have to catch the score after it's over. you or others who choose to play it will be in charge of getting it in the barn.
best.

 

[t3a]

I was looking at that game too after seeing Creighton hitting all those 3s. But I think you sold me on the negative impact of a bus trip to Johnson City.

UTC 2-7 ATS playing with 1 day rest
ETenn is 5-1 ATS vs UTC last 3Y

but (!) ETenn 1-11 SU vs teams >.500

Look at both of these teams last 5 games, they are so similar 20+ loss to App St, 9 point win vs WCar, big wins vs UNCGreen AND a loss to powerhouse Elon.
UTC lost at HOME to Elon though, at least ET lost at Elon. That and the UTC travel and 3 factor have me sold.

 

[oceanboy]

c2c

is this the same c2c from the ibettor days? if yes how in the hell are U? hope all is going well. and will be looking forward to talking to you later on...if not nevermind but nice write up and gltu as always...OB

 

[G-DOGGG]

Coast,

Love the write-up, but I'm a bit concerend about the last meeting between these 2. Chat won 93-59. Do you know if there were key injuries during this meeting?

GL,
G-Doggg

 

[Coast2Coast]

Oceanboy...yes one and the same.


Gdogg....No injuries in that first game. In that first game, the Mocs used their size advantage in the paint and pounded the ball inside early and often...and shot 59 percent from the field in that game. ETSU lives and dies by the trey and was just 3/16 in the first half from trey in that game...which added to the rout. The first game was essentially the same as recent meetings between these two...and up and down game....though the major factor in that game was that the Mocs shot 59% and ETSU shot 35%. As i said in my writeup....the Mocs front court has the definite advantage...with Katelynas, Brown and Pugh. Since that game, Reed, a 6-8 frosh forward has moved into the starting lineup for ETSu and is now getting more minutes than he got then. Sneed, a 6-8 junior transfer, is also much more integrated into the offense than he was then...and is coming off a nice double double against Peay. I'm not saying he can handle Katelenas though. No doubt...the Mocs will again have the advantage in the paint....though I expect Reed and Sneed to do a better job defensively than was done in the first game against UTC. However....the key to this play is the ETSU backcourt. ETSU has shot the ball lights out at home and they will live or die with their guards' shooting tonight. Smith is also playing at a very high level and he's starting to show why he was the preseason conference player of the year.


By the way...the total for this game has been posted at 155. I am also leaning to playing the over for one unit. The history of this series is a fast-paced up and down game and both teams got a lot of points in transition in the first game. Assuming ETSU shoots much better than it did in the first game, this one should go over. It certainly should have the pace/shot totals to go over.

​

 

[G-DOGGG]

Coast,

I appreciate the info, I'm all over it. Thanks.

GL
G-Doggg

 

[ppeter]

The only team that appears to be shooting well is the Mocs. 40-25 halftime. The busride must have refreshed them.

 

[ppeter]

Mocs are now up by 20 with 12 minutes to go. Thanks for the write up, though. A lot of thought went into it, I don't understand why the sports world is so illogical and random.

 

[Coast2Coast]

wrong again. story of my year on Rx. not sure how you handicap one of the best players in the conference shooting 5/22, how a 47% shooting team shoots 33% or how the Mocs guards (who had been under 30% from trey for the season) go 10/20 from trey. sorry to anyone who bought my wrong take.

 

[t3a]

You made some good points, plus that line would seem to be begging you to take UTC since ETSU had only 1 win all year against a winning team.

I guess we saw tonite why they are 9-16