:toast:
I hope some of you got my message here that Orlando was missing 3/5ths of their scoring and then 4/5ths when Howard went out. The mathematical implications on the Total was huge. Totals are based more on mathematical averages than Sides which have the x factor of emotion to deal with.
As most of you know or should know. Totals are much easier to beat than Sides, thus the lower Bet totals allowed.
Regarding today's Total Bet. It was argumentably one of the easiest Totals of the season to beat and here is why.
The Man put out the Line too early without mathematically taking into account the loss of the top 3 scorers and later 4. The average Totals line put out for these two this year was 196.6. You'd think with 3 leading scores out it would be adjusted downward say 6 or 8 points. But it wasn't , it wasn't because if the man moves the line down 8 points he increases the risk of being sided with OVER money, he can't move, he is stuck. If he moves it down, lots of money and I mean lots of money will come in on the OVER and if the OVER hits he is curtains.
As it was,the game played to form Totally. Orlandos offense scores 100 points a game on the RD on average. Missing 4 top scores they managed to only score 80. The Total line was 198 closing at places. The UNDER bet won by 20 points exactly!
See the basic mathematical connection of the missing players to the final winning Total? If you don't see it don't worry.
Keep reading here.
OccamsRazor the Peoples Capper. All free all the time.
15-3 last 18 totals here. All with writeups and explanations.
9-3 last 12 Sides here.
Thats 24 winners out of 30 bets. 24-6 (80%) (<)<
Most likely done for the season, but back for the playoffs. with the "Where the Money Is At" posts in which keep track of all the ATS situations and see what is winning cash. A preview: It usually with the Home Team Favorites where the money is at.
I'll post the method and details on how I went on a 80% run.
Luck? I'll post the logic and mathematics behind the run and let you be the judge.
All free, all the time. The peoples Capper. The Robin Hood Gambler
