Monday 7/20/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
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[superbeets]

Russian Premier TODAY 15:00

Amkar Perm

v

FK Krasnodar

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		3	12/5	10/11	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT AMKAR PERM	RECENT FORM
HWHDADHWHWAD​ Most recent​	1 - 2 2 - 2 2 - 2 2 - 2	HWAWHDHDHWAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Both teams scored in seven of Krasnodar's last nine league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Both teams have been active on the friendly-front so should be primed to pick up the good form they finished the last Russian Premier League in. Amkar won five of their last eight home games and Krasnodar went unbeaten for 13 games. Krasnodar won 2-1 at Stadion Zvezda last September and May's return finished 1-1. They can both net again.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
1

 

[superbeets]

Russian Premier TODAY 18:00

Kuban K

v

Ural Sver. Oblast

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		7/10	5/2	17/4	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT KUBAN K	RECENT FORM
ALHLALALADHW​ Most recent​	0 - 2 3 - 2	ALALHDHWALAW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Kuban Krasnodar won only two of their final 12 league games last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Ural can complete a successful raid on Kuban Krasnodar. Friendly results do not suggest that much has changed since the end of last season when Kuban's form fell away and Ural's picked up enough for them to beat the drop via a playoff. They won the away leg of that and also prevailed 2-0 at Stadion Kuban in April.

RECOMMENDATION: Ural
1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIM FEIST

(967) Pittsburgh Pirates

Your Bonus Play for Monday, July 20, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the Pirates and Royals in Kansas City. Pittsburgh is strong all around on a 36-16 run. A.J Burnett (7-3) is having a dominant season with the team 10-3 his last 13 starts. Burnett allowed three runs on six hits and three walks while striking out six over 6.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals his last start. Burnett walked three batters for the second straight start, but the 38-year-old is still walking a career-low 2.49 batters per nine innings. In fact, the first-time All-Star is enjoying his most productive season ever in his 17th major league campaign, and he even contributed on offense in this one with his first home run since 2005. Saturday's start was just the fourth time all season Burnett has allowed three or more runs, and the veteran will look to replicate his outstanding first half after participating in the All-Star festivities. The Pirates are 11-3 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter and face Yordano Ventura (4-6, 4.76 ERA) who has struggled much of the year with nagging injuries. Play the Pirates.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Mets @ Nationals
Harvey is 2-2, 1.99 in his last five starts; four of those five stayed under.

Gonzalez is 2-0, 0.90 in his last three starts; three of his last four home starts stayed under the total.

Mets are 4-6 in last ten games with Washington; six of last eight series games stayed under total. Nats won nine of last 13 home games; 11 of their last 13 home games stayed under. NY is 6-4 in its last 10 road games; 13 of their last 17 road games stayed under.

Cubs @ Reds
Richard allowed two runs in 6.1 IP (91 PT) in his first '15 start.

Lorenzen is 0-2, 3.45 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under he total- Reds scored two runs in the three games.

Chicago lost four of last six games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 on road. Reds lost six of their last eight home games. Cubs won six of their last seven games with Cincinnati.

Dodgers @ Braves
Former Brave Beachy allowed three runs in four IP (78 PT) in his first '15 start, his first MLB start since 2013.

Wisler is 2-0, 2.65 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five.

Braves won eight of last 12 home games; 11 of their last 14 games at home stayed under. LA is 14-6 in its last 20 games, 8-2 in last ten on road,. Under is 13-3 in their last 16 road games. Dodgers won eight of last ten games with the Braves; three of last four went over.

Giants @ Padres
Hudson was 2-2, 5.48 in his last four starts before going on DL; three of the four games went over.

Kennedy is 0-4, 7.17 in his last four starts; his last six starts stayed under.

Giants won four of last six games with San Diego; four of last six went under total. SF won last its six games, outscoring foes 43-19; over is 22-8 in their last 30 road games. San Diego lost six of last ten home games; over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 at home.

American League
Mariners @ Tigers
Happ is 1-4, 6.23 in his last six starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. .

Simon is 1-3, 11.41 in his last five starts; his last seven starts went over.

Seattle lost four of last six games; under is 10-2 in Seattle's last 12 road games. Tigers lost five of last six games; over is 23-3 in their last 26 games, 11-1 in their last dozen at home. Mariners are 5-3 in their last eight games vs Detroit.

Red Sox @ Angels
Rodriguez is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over. Wright is 1-2, 4.70 in his last four starts, last of which was June 4.

Santiago is 2-0, 1.00 in his last four starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12. Angels are 4-0 when Heaney starts (3-0, 1.32, over 2-2).

Boston lost seven of last nine games with the Angels; seven of last ten games stayed under total. Red Sox didn't score the last two games. Halos are 16-7 in last 23 home games, with last nine all staying under total.

Interleague
Rays @ Phillies
Moore is 1-0, 7.07 in his three starts (14 IP, over 2-0-1).

Buchanon is 0-5, 7.58 in his six starts (over 3-2-1).

Tampa Bay lost eight of last 11 road games; over is 11-6-1 in their last 18 games overall. Phillies lost four of last five games with Tampa; three of last four went over. Philly won last three games; four of their last six went over.

Pirates @ Royals
Burnett is 1-0, 2.67 in his lst four starts, three of which went over.

Ventura is 1-3, 5.04 in his last five starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.

Pirates won five of last six games with Kansas City (under 5-1); home side won eight of last nine series games. Pittsburgh lost last three games, allowing 18 runs; four of their last six went over. Royals won eight of last ten games; three of their last four stayed under.

Rangers @ Rockies
Martinez is 0-3, 6.66 in his last four starts; four of his last five went under.

Rusin is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts; Rockies are 0-6 in his starts if they score less than 10 runs- over is 2-1 in his home starts.

Texas lost 18 of last 23 games; under is 9-4-1 in last 14 road games. Colorado won last four home games, allowing 11 runs; five of their last seven games overall went under the total. Rockies won three of last four games vs Texas.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
NY-Wsh-- Harvey 10-7; Gonzalez 10-6
Chi-Cin-- Richard 1-0; Lorenzen 5-7
LA-Atl-- Beachy 0-1; Wisler 3-2
Mia-Az-- Phelps 5-9; de la Rosa 9-9
SF-SD-- Hudson 7-8; Kennedy 6-10

Sea-Det-- Happ 7-10; Simon 9-8
Bos-LAA-- Rodriguez 6-3 Wright 1-3; Santiago 10-7 Heaney 4-0

TB-Phil-- Moore 1-2; Buchanon 0-6
Pitt-KC-- Burnett 11-7; Ventura 5-8
Tex-Colo-- Martinez 9-7; Rusin 2-6

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
NY-Wsh-- Harvey 5-17; Gonzalez 2-16
Chi-Cin-- Richard 0-1; Lorenzen 5-12
LA-Atl-- Beachy 0-1; Wisler 3-5
Mia-Az-- Phelps 5-14; de la Rosa 5-18
SF-SD-- Hudson 5-15; Kennedy 6-16

Sea-Det-- Happ 6-17; Simon 3-17
Bos-LAA-- Rodriguez 6-3 Wright 1-4; Santiago 10-7 Heaney 0-4

TB-Phil-- Moore 1-3; Buchanon 2-6
Pitt-KC-- Burnett 4-18; Ventura 4-13
Tex-Colo-- Martinez 3-16; Rusin 3-8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

British Open Odds - Final Round

The 144th British Open will conclude on Monday and it’s fair to say that the tournament is wide open.

Three players share the lead at 12-under 204 through 54 holes and all of them are international golfers.

Louis Oosthuizen – South Africa
Paul Dunne - Ireland
Jason Day – Australia

The biggest surprise of this trio is Dunne, a 22-year-old amateur from Ireland. Dunne played collegiately at UAB and had to qualify for his first Open Championship.

After three straight rounds in the 60s, the youngster is trying to become the first amateur champion at the British Open since the great Bobby Jones in 1930.

Oddsmakers aren’t sold on the kid, listing Dunne as a 15/1 betting choice to win the event.

According to an offshore outfit, Jordan Spieth is the favorite (7/4) to win this year’s Open Championship which would give him his third consecutive major victory this year.

Spieth posted a 5-under 67 on Sunday and sits at 11-under overall, one shot off the lead.

After Spieth, oddsmakers have both Day and Oosthuizen listed at 3/1. Day has never won a major while Oosthuizen has one major victory on resume, which came in the 2010 British Open.

The leader after the first two rounds was Dustin Johnson but he had a difficult day on Sunday, finishing 3-over 75.

He’s still in the hunt at 9-under and bettors believeing he can redeem himself on Monday can grab 25/1 odds.

Tee times for Monday will begin at 2:45 a.m. ET with ESPN providing national coverage of the event.

The last group on Monday will be Louis Oosthuizen and Paul Dunne. The second-to-last group will be Jason Day and Jordan Spieth.

Those pairings are expected to start at 9:20 a.m. ET.

Bettors can wager LIVE throughout the event this entire weekend.

Latest odds to win 2015 Open Championship

Jordan Spieth 7/4
Jason Day 3/1
Louis Oosthuizen 3/1
Adam Scott 15/1
Paul Dunne 15/1
Dustin Johnson 25/1
Justin Rose 25/1
Padraig Harrington 25/1
Sergio Garcia 25/1
Zach Johnson 28/1
Danny Willett 40/1
Marc Leishman 65/1
Retief Goosen 65/1
Rickie Fowler 65/1
Robert Streb 65/1
Charl Schwartzel 70/1
Eddie Pepperell 125/1
Hideki Matsuyama 150/1
Steven Bowditch 150/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas thinks Spieth can keep rolling at The Open
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL

Mother Nature forced the 144th British Open to play out longer than normal, but heading into Monday's final round it's certainly been worth the wait.

To say it's crowded at the top would be an understatement. Surprising amateur Paul Dunne, Louis Oosthuizen and Jason Day are in a three-way tie for the lead at 12-under but 14 players are within striking distance at four strokes back.

One of those gentleman, back-to-back major winner Jordan Spieth, is sitting at -11 heading into the last day of action at The Old Course. Unsurprisingly, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has tabbed Spieth as a 2/1 favorite to claim yet another major championship in 2015.

Here's a look at the book's full list of odds:

JORDAN SPIETH 2/1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 3/1
JASON DAY 7/2
ADAM SCOTT 15/1
PAUL DUNNE 20/1
PADRAIG HARRINGTON 20/1
JUSTIN ROSE 20/1
SERGIO GARCIA 25/1
ZACH JOHNSON 30/1
DUSTIN JOHNSON 50/1
DANNY WILLETT 50/1
MARC LEISHMAN 60/1
RETIEF GOOSEN 60/1
ROBERT STREB 60/1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL 80/1
RICKIE FOWLER 80/1
EDDIE PEPPERELL 125/1
STEVEN BOWDITCH 125/1
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 150/1
JORDAN NIEBRUGGE 150/1
PATRICK REED 150/1
MARC WARREN 250/1
RYAN PALMER 250/1
BROOKS KOEPKA 300/1
JIM FURYK 500/1
STEWART CINK 500/1
ANTHONY WALL 500/1
FIELD (all others) 100/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Holy $hit Betting Stat of the Day: Day has been close but no cigar in majors
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL

If you're thinking about placing a wager on Jason Day in the final round of The British Open on Monday, you may want to take note of this stat first.

As pointed out by Justin Ray of The Golf Channel, Day has been in the top four after 54 holes in a major seven times since 2010 - the most of any player during that span. Despite consistently coming so close, the Aussie has yet to win a major.

After shooting a 66 on Sunday, Day is tied with Paul Dunne and Louis Oosthuizen for the lead at -12. The 27-year-old is 7/2 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to buck that trend and hoist the Claret Jug in Scotland.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Betting Recap - 7/13-7/19
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes (from Monday, July 13 through Sunday, July 19)

-- Favorites went 10-6 straight up
-- Underdogs went 8-7-1 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 12-4 SU record
-- Home teams posted a 10-5-1 ATS record
-- The 'under' went 10-6

Team Betting Notes

-- It was a good week to be at home, as home teams won 12 of their 16 games with the home side going 10-5-1 ATS. Bucking the trend was Atlanta (7-9), as they posted a 2-1 ATS mark on the road in three tries.

-- New York (10-5) picked up three straight wins this week, and they posted covers in each of the outings, too, including a win at Phoenix (9-6).

-- The Mercury were cooled off in their loss at home to the Liberty, and they have now failed to cover in three consecutive outings. Bettors also love the fact the 'under' has hit in three straight games for Phoenix.

-- Tulsa (10-7) had another rough week, going 0-3 SU/0-2-1 ATS in their three outings on the road. They have won just once in the past six games away from home, going 2-3-1 ATS during the span.

-- Chicago (10-6) got back on track Sunday against San Antonio (4-12). The Sky did fail to cover the 11 1/2-point number, however, making them just 3-5 ATS over their past eight games.

-- Indiana (8-7) was limited to just one game this week, as their game in Connecticut (7-6) was postponed due to airport/travel delays. Indiana was set to travel from D.C. to Hartford, Conn., but weather and mechanical problems forced their commercial flight back to the gate. No makeup date has been announced.

-- The Sun was probably thrilled with the postponement, as they haven't been able to get anything right lately. After a 7-1 SU/ATS start, the Sun have dropped five consecutive games while going 2-4 ATS in the past six overall.

-- Minnesota (12-3) won for the fourth straight game, and they're 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS over the past six away from home. At home the Lynx have posted a 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS mark, and they'll look to keep it up with three straight home dates from July 22-31.

-- Los Angeles (2-12) continues to struggle, as they enter the new week with five straight losses. They're also 0-4 ATS in their past four games, and the 'under' has hit in four in a row after a 7-0 'over' run from June 21-July 5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 7:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$70000 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - GOLD - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES. STARTING FEE $800.00


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 THATSOVERYVERYNICE 6/5


# 8 DANISH N COFFEE 15/1


# 4 TWENTY THREE RED 9/2

If you want a really strong play for this one, feast your eyes on THATSOVERYVERYNICE. Don't count out this solid standardbred, especially with Alagna as the trainer. In the money percent is strong. Her 80 avg has this filly among the strongest speed figures for this race. This standardbred has shown us some prior ability, just look at the 75 average class number. Should play well for this race. DANISH N COFFEE - Has the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 73 speed fig. It's sometimes tricky to consider based only on class, but this filly has among the most favorable class figures of the pack. TWENTY THREE RED - Has to be given a look based on the very good speed rating achieved in the most recent race. Filion and Budd have a formidable working relationship. Great results from their competitions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 9:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$49841 - THE $147,723 CLYDE HIRT PACE NEW YORK SIRE STAKES 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES **3RD DIVISION** #1 & #1A WILL RACE AS AN ENTRY


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 WISHY WASHY GIRL 3/2


# 3 NO CLOUDS BLUECHIP 3/1


# 1 MOTHER OF ART 7/1


WISHY WASHY GIRL is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the number crunching team. Take a look at this fine animal's average speed figure of 79 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a nice wager. Reason to like this filly as she has in the cart one of the best drivers in win percentage the last 30 days. NO CLOUDS BLUECHIP - She's running in good form, recording strong TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent pick. That 79 speed figure clocked in the last gathering puts this race horse in the mix in this race. MOTHER OF ART - A competitive class horse shouldn't be be forgotten. With an avg class number of 70 all signs say this is the one to beat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 20, 2015 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $8,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 STAR BLESSING 4/1


# 3 CON GEE 8/1


# 2 NOTICIA 8/1


I back STAR BLESSING here. Her chances to prove victorious are much better this time out facing this less demanding field. This animal has some longshot handicapping angles going for her. Has to be carefully examined versus this group of horses in this race displaying decent numbers recently and an average speed fig of 61 under similar conditions. CON GEE - This filly has to be given consideration just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone. This racer should be bet upon at the expected big odds. NOTICIA - Ran a strong last race. Should expect this equine to be close up at the finishing post versus these ponies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16900 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 20 ALLOWED 4 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 IMPOSING FIGURE 2/1


# 5 GOOD MARK 3/1


# 1 ULATIONS 12/1


IMPOSING FIGURE has a very good shot to take this race. He has been running strongly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most respectable in this group of animals. Lately Englehart has provided players with a very good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Should be considered - I like the numbers from the last competition. GOOD MARK - With a strong jock who has won at a very good 16 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top choices. Looks very good against this group of horses in this race and should be one of the front-runners. ULATIONS - A nice return on investment of +16 with this jockey and trainer duo. Flores should be able to get this gelding to break out early in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Valuline at Presque Isle Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Presque Isle Downs, Race 3 (Monday July 20, 2015)

SHE'S MY AFLEET

PID-3 1m1/16 ALLW Five Horses
"A" StALW 5,000 F/M 3YUP $17,000
P# ex p3 p4 t ML WP TVL

2 SHE'S MY AFLEET 6/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
5 KINGS TUESDAY 5/2 29% 5/2
1 SALLY OH SALLY 6/1 20% 4/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:49pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 41

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 PANDANCER (ML=4/1)
#5 BETAMERICA BABE (ML=2/1)


PANDANCER - It looks like Perez had to be in the know about this filly on July 7th when riding her for the first time. Back on again today. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier group than last time around the track at Parx Racing. This equine picks up a lot of money per start. Number one in this affair. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. BETAMERICA BABE - I really like that this animal shows a gate workout since the last race and is getting blinkers on today. Always a good angle to play. Wyner drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to figure that this horse will be tough to beat at this level. Look for this filly to run a lot better in this field. Last contest at Belmont finishing fifth on a muddy track is no sign of her true talent.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 OVIDIENNE (ML=3/1), #8 ALLIED KID (ML=6/1), #7 MI NIETA ALE (ML=8/1),

OVIDIENNE - 3/1 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when examining the most recent showings. Not easy to wager on this vulnerable equine this time out. Make her show you something in a sprint race before you bet on her in a race of 6 1/2 furlongs. ALLIED KID - No accomplishments for this steed in a sprint race over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a difficult situation MI NIETA ALE - Not probable that this equine will finish better than she did last time when finishing fourth.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PANDANCER - This filly is stepping up with each race. She has shown a notable points increase in her speed ratings over her last two races.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #1 PANDANCER to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,600 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 CAN'T GET ENOUGH (ML=6/1)
#6 HAPPYISOUTBACK (ML=9/2)
#8 THIRD KNIGHT (ML=4/1)


CAN'T GET ENOUGH - Colon should be able to place this gelding right behind the pace. Ideally, Colon will rate behind the leaders, then pounce on the turn. Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +113. This jock/trainer duo has done well together over the last twelve months. Always beware of the longer priced animal when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. HAPPYISOUTBACK - I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a campaigner coming back off a sharp contest within the last month. Just check out his most recent speed figure, 88. That one fits well in this group. Three consecutive improved speed figs (67-77-88) make this horse a strong contender. THIRD KNIGHT - The jock/conditioner twosome of Pilares and Inirio has a strong return on investment together. Last out, this one was in a race at Thistledown in a race with a class rating of 96. Dropping considerably in class figure this time out puts him in a solid position right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 FEAR THE BEARD (ML=7/2), #1 AMERICAN BUFFALO (ML=6/1), #3 K D'S KING KONG (ML=8/1),

FEAR THE BEARD - Hasn't raced or had any morning drills since June 24th. Not much value on this favorite. This steed gave a lackluster effort last time finishing fourth. Don't see any chance of any betterment in today's event. AMERICAN BUFFALO - Speed ratings of 92/77/74 are pointed downward. This gelding earned a speed rating in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's event. K D'S KING KONG - You figure that this horse is going to win today just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #2 CAN'T GET ENOUGH to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [6,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 7/20 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

4,6,8/1,2,3,8/6/3,5,6,10 = $48


LATE PICK 4: 2,3,5/2,4,5/6,8/4 = $18

MEET STATS: 170 - 570 / $986.80 BEST BETS: 21 - 51 / $74.20

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 51 / $53.20

Best Bet: SHOE SHINE (11th)

Spot Play: ABSOLUTELY OFFICIAL (7th)


Race 1

(4) KAYS SHADOW waited too long to make her move last time and as a result was forced to go first up into the fastest 1/4 of the race which cost her. Expect a more aggressive drive tonight. (3) KEYSTONE PAULA left hard for the front, yielded, then sat a beautiful trip never leaving the inside to get the decision over the choice. She is a big threat off that strong debut mile. (1) L A DELIGHT was an easy winner 2nd time out now faces better; minor share predicted.

Race 2

(1) THATSOVERYNICE broke the track record for 2YO pacing fillies in her sensational debut. She's hard to go against here but will be a very small price on the board. (6) THREE DREAMS was hung first over a long way but when she straightened out in the lane she really closed well; exacta factor. (2) STONEBRIDGE PEARL was conservatively driven last week but did have good late pace to offer. She likely has more under the hood than she showed that night.

Race 3

(1) MINDTRIP has two full-brothers that took marks of 1:51 and 1:49 2/5 respectively. Trainer Alagna has been sending them up here ready and this one gets top call here. (5) LINDY SECRET is a 1/2 brother to two winners from two that have raced from the dam and both of those won early (second starts). This one brings an impressive July 2 qualifier to the table and looks like the main threat to the choice. (2) MAX IS BACK came his back 1/2 in 54 3/5 in his debut and is another in with a chance here.

Race 4

(8) MR DENNIS takes a class plunge here to face a pretty weak conditioned group. Drury will likely try to take him right down the road. (4) ARI ALLSTAR had a dramatic form reversal last week with McNair at the controls. A repeat of that mile puts him right there with these. (6) PRINCE CLYDE faces easier and could strike here from close range.

Race 5

(3) BODY BALANCE was a sharp winner last week and took a new life's mark in the process. These are a bit tougher but he rates highly. (1) WHISKEY TAX was a blowout winner vs. lesser - also in lifetime-best time - and is a strong contender here, too. (2) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS took a mid-race shuffle last week then closed again late. He could threaten here with the right trip.

Race 6

(6) MAGIC MADNESS was a sharp first-over winner last week while taking a new life's mark. She faces many of the same rivals and will be tough to beat. (1) DOMEDOMEDOME vaulted up off the choice's cover but couldn't catch her late. The choice may be just a bit too sharp for her at the moment. (4) GAME ON HANOVER moved earlier than normal last week and was a driving-away winner; some of these look tougher.

Race 7

(3) ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL was involved in interference at the 1/2 last time and raced only evenly. He gets Henry back here and should rebound with a much better effort; top call. (10) RUSTYS OVERLOAD drops out of a stakes series where he raced okay. If he can get position in the top 5 or 6 early he should be heard from late. (5) DEETZY brought a clear lead into the stretch last time but then tired. He will likely race from the back here which seems is a more effective style for him.

Race 8

(3) WHITE BECOMES HER drops back into a class where she won easily on June 29 and she will take some beating here. (2) KINETIC KING seems to have finally put his breaking issues behind him and has been racing well; contender. (5) O U SEXY GUY was a strong first-over winner last week but may have trouble with the choice here if he tries the same tactics.

Race 9

(5) TWIN B THONG motored to the front in the second 1/4 last week, took a breather to the 3/4, then easily paced away. She looks like a strong contender here. (2) THISORTHAT HANOVER set a strong pace in a track record mile but couldn't keep pace late. The pace is likely to be easier here so keep her on late pick 4 tickets. (4) GOLDEN IDOL was a following 2nd in the same mile as the one above and should be heard from here.

Race 10

(6) FLANAGAN MEMORY was out a long way last week yet still led until very late. A slightly better trip gets the job done here. (8) DAYLON MAGICIAN returns from Cleveland fresh off a big win in Northfield's Trotting Classic. He has been solid all season and is the one to beat. (2) WINDSUN REVENGE has raced well several weeks in a row and should take a share here.

Race 11

(4) SHOE SHINE has lowered his life's mark two weeks in a row with easy wins and will be tough to beat here as a big favorite. (7) WINDSONG LORD was a distant 2nd to the choice last week and looks like the best of the rest here. (5) MAJOR IN LIFE was 3rd in the same mile and it's quite conceivable the triactor could repeat itself in order here. (2) SURGE SEELSTER has been racing well out of town and is most likely to crash the party and sneak into the tri of those remaining. (1) BALLYBUNION closed a big gap last time but now has missed a month's action; for a minor share only.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 7/20 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 204 - 637 / $1141.10 BEST BETS: 28 - 51 / $97.30

Best Bet: TIME ON MY HANDS (7th)

Spot Play: LYRA (5th)


Race 1

(6) DAUT FULL qualified effectively after misbehaving in a couple of starts; these days, having Scott Zeron in the bike is a good angle. (7) HEAVENLY BRIDE makes her initial start in the Cassar barn and she has NYSS experience; one to beat. (5) ABIDA HANOVER ships from Michigan and joins the Buter barn; that angle was victorious the other night.

Race 2

(3) AMAZON IDEAL broke early last out at 1/9 and never recovered; prior effort was sharp and the youngster only needs to mind her manners. (1) ROLLING GOING GONE was an upset winner with a close-up trip and now she gets Sears in the bike. (2) PRINCESS DELFINA was a very good second in her second career start; Bartlett drives.

Race 3

(2) RAGE N RYAN was hard-used last out and still lived to tell about it late; sharp gelding should repeat. (5) WHOGOESFIRST is just not the same horse as he used to be but he should definitely be competitive here. (8) BLADE SEESLTER may be hinting at a form reversal and I wouldn't totally dismiss him here with his early speed.

Race 4

(4) NAUTICA BLUE CHIP was Bartlett's choice here off a tough loss last out up at Saratoga, which was an improved effort; maybe. (1) MARLA MCGIVERS gets Sears in the bike after racing evenly against better and she draws best here. (5) FLOWER BOMB broke in her career debut and trainer Smedshammer takes the lines tonight; morning efforts were halfway decent.

Race 5

(2) LYRA gets a notable driver change to Kakaley and that could be enough to get her over the top in this tough-to-figure event. (6) PAT'S PARADISE ships in from Chicago and appears to have some ability. (3) THE PLAYER HANOVER hails from the sharp Chris Ryder barn.

Race 6

(3) STARNIGHT DANCER ships from Philly, picks up Kakaley and appears fast enough to topple these. (1) HEAVEN ON EARTH gets needed post relief, has a good history here and gets Tetrick in the bike; overbet? (2) AMERITIME has shown some improvement recently out of town.

Race 7

(1) TIME ON MY HANDS looked very impressive winning on the front end at Saratoga in 1:54 2/5; from this spot the Ryder trainee will be heavily favored to repeat. (4) VINO AND FORMAGGIO was a good second in both her career efforts and she looks second best here. (3) LILMISSTALKSALOT was scratched sick in her career debut which is never a good sign but her qualifer at Philly previously was good.

Race 8

(4) HYPNOTIST is trip-dependent but the seasoned veteran is very tough to pass up at this reduced level. (1) LET'S FOAL AROUND exits series action at Tioga where the Chiodo trainee performed admirably; he draws best and picks up Sears. (2) SAM'S ESCAPE is clearly better than what he's been showing recently.

Race 9

(5) WISHY WASHY GIRL has flashed good speed at both ends of her miles in all her career efforts; Schnittker's filly should be firing out and sitting a winning trip. (3) NO CLOUDS BLUECHIP was used in the early stages last out and held decently for a board spot; Sears picks up the drive tonight. (2) PENPAL gets post relief in her second career effort for Lachance; we may need to see another start or two from her.

Race 10

(3) MCRUSTY gets post relief in a questionable field and I'll give him a chance despite Buter opting off; Zeron drives. (1) DONAU hasn't done much recently but he has speed, the rail and Tetrick driving. (4) BACKUP A gets class and post relief for the Bamond barn but he hasn't really impressed me since arriving from Australia.

Race 11

(4) GLASS PRINCE can sometimes look sluggish but sometimes look like a champion; he does fit well here and the price should be right. (2) DUKE DID IT exits claimers off a series of good efforts. (6) SNAP TO IT A is another Bamond import who seems fast enough to compete.

Race 12

(7) BIG TURN ON may be a bit of a reach here but he was a game winner down at Philly in his debut for the Burke barn and the four-year-old may have more to offer. (3) OFF LIKA PROMDRESS returns to Yonkers off a couple of confidence-building wins at Saratoga. (5) MARINER SEELSTER was a pretty good second last out and could hit the ticket with the right trip.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Delaware Park (1st) Balto More, 6-1
(5th) Sweet Butterfly, 3-1


Finger Lakes (4th) Unbridled Toga, 7-2
(5th) Silver Armor, 5-1


Mountaineer (4th) Sierra Sun, 8-1
(5th) Mountain Wildcat, 3-1


Parx Racing (3rd) Pandancer, 4-1
(4th) Royal Shamus, 5-1

Presque Isle Downs (4th) Rock Scene, 3-1
(5th) Bewitching Anna, 3-1


Thistledown (5th) Cozy Sunday, 6-1
(8th) Wired Warrior, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Mets (48-44) at Nationals (49-41)

Game: 1
Venue: Nationals Park
Date: July 20, 2015 7:05 PM EDT

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals have played some low-scoring games recently, and given the pitchers who will open their next series, another seems likely.

Matt Harvey and Gio Gonzalez bring impressive scoreless streaks against their respective NL East foes into Monday night's meeting at Nationals Park, and neither team showed much in the way of offense over the weekend.

Harvey (8-6, 3.07 ERA) hasn't been scored on in his last 16 innings against Washington (49-41), but his more immediate concerns have to do with control.

In a 4-2 home win over Arizona on July 11, the right-hander held the Diamondbacks to two runs and five hits while striking out nine in seven innings. It was good enough to earn the victory, but Harvey walked four and has issued nine over his last two starts. That comes after he'd walked 17 in his first 15 starts, but his manager at least thought he was trending in the right direction as the game progressed.

"As you saw the game went, his command got better, stuff got better," Terry Collins said. "He got into three, four, five and he got into a rhythm."

Harvey is 3-1 with a 0.68 ERA in six career starts against the Nationals, which includes 14 innings in Washington without allowing an earned run. Bryce Harper is 0 for 12 with six strikeouts against the Mets ace.

For the Nationals, Harvey is the latest in a brutal stretch against top-level starters that will continue with All-Star Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Washington failed to score against Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke over the weekend and totaled two runs and 10 hits in the two losses after Sunday's 5-0 loss to Los Angeles. Over a 1-4 home span, the Nationals have scored nine runs while hitting .154.

"Do you want us to duck tail and run?" said Clint Robinson, who's in a 2-for-19 slump at home. "I've said before, this is the big leagues, that's part of it. These guys are the best in the world for a reason, and you've just got to go out there and rise up to the challenge."

Ian Desmond went hitless again Sunday and is in a 3-for-44 slump, but Yunel Escobar was 2 for 4 and is batting .345 in his last 21 games.

Gonzalez (6-4, 3.99) hasn't yielded a run to the Mets (48-44) over the last 15 2-3 innings with consecutive victories to improve to 8-4 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 career starts. Wilmer Flores (0 for 10), Curtis Granderson (3 for 24) and Lucas Duda (3 for 17) have struggled in this matchup, but Juan Lagares is 8 for 19 with a home run.

The left-hander has also probably put together his best three-start span this season with a 2-0 record and 0.90 ERA after limiting Baltimore to one run and six hits in six innings of a 3-2 road win on July 10. He's credited catcher Jose Lobaton, whom he's worked with for each of the three starts, with some of the success.

"He is helping me out with pitches low in the zone," Gonzalez told MLB's official website. "Lobby and I are in sync right now. He is calling a great game, and I'm just throwing it where he wants it."

Most of Gonzalez's success has come at home, where he's 4-1 with a 2.44 ERA in seven starts, and the Mets have shown no evidence lately of being able to beef that up.

In Sunday's 3-1 18-inning win , they stranded a franchise record-matching 25 runners and went 1 for 26 with runners in scoring position, which drops them to 3 for 62 in seven games.

There were six runs scored in the most recent three-game series between the teams, with the Nationals winning each of the last two 1-0.