Monday 4/27/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

English Championship TODAY 19:45

Bournemouth

v

Bolton

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		3/10	5	10	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BOURNEMOUTH	RECENT FORM
HWADHWAWAWHD​ Most recent​	0 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 0	ADHDAWHLHDAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Bournemouth have averaged over two goals a game at Dean Court

EXPERT VERDICT: High-flying Bournemouth should beat Bolton. The Cherries are unbeaten in 11 Championship games, winning seven and drawing four, and are chasing an automatic promotion spot. The Trotters have won only one of their last six and have conceded 37 goals in 18 away matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Bournemouth
4


REFEREE: Simon Hooper STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Mets @ Marlins
Gee is 0-1, 5.60 in his three starts; four of his last five went over total.

Cosart is 1-1, 3.63 in his three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Mets won 12 of last 14 games overall (over is 6-1-1 in last eight), seven of last nine with Miami; over is 8-1-1 in last ten series games. Miami won its last five games, outscoring opponents 29-6; over is 8-2-1 in their last eleven.

Nationals @ Braves
Fister is 1-0, 3.32 in his three starts; six of his last nine stayed under.

Stults is 0-1, 4.50 in his three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six home starts.

Braves lost five of their last six games. Nationals lost their last five games, outscored 28-10; they won four of last six games with Atlanta- six of last eight series games stayed under.

Brewers @ Reds
Nelson is 1-1, 1.80 in his three starts; six of his last nine stayed under.

Marquis is 1-1, 7.80 in his three starts; seven of his last ten went over.

Milwaukee lost ten of last 12 games, outscored 61-32; they lost four of last five games with Cincinnati- under is 7-3 in his last ten. Reds lost three games in row, scoring total of seven runs.

Pirates @ Cubs
Worley is 2-0, 2.31 in his last two starts; seven of his last nine went under.

Hammel is 1-1, 5.71 in his three starts; three of his last four went over.

Pirates won its last five games, allowing nine runs; under is 3-1-1 in those five games- they're 7-3 in last ten games with Chicago; over is 6-1-1 in last eight. Cubs won four of last six games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five.

Phillies @ Cardinals
Hamels is 0-2, 4.13 in his four starts this season.

Lackey is 1-0, 4.34 in his three starts; three of his last four went over.

Phillies lost five of last seven games in St Louis; under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Philly is 1-6 on road, with three of last four going over. Cards won four of last five games; under is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Matzek is 1-1, 2.40 in his three starts; seven of his last nine stayed under.

CAnderson is 0-0, 3.00 in his three starts; they all stayed under total.

Rockies lost six of their last eight games, outscored 54-29. Arizona lost five of last six at home; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games overall. Rockies won six of last eight games with Arizona; four of last five went over.

Giants @ Dodgers
Lincecum is 1-1, 2.50 in his three starts (under 2-1).

BAnderson is 1-1, 5.40 in his three starts this season (under 2-1).

Dodgers lost four of their last six games; four of last five stayed under total. LA lost its last three games with Giants, scoring six runs. Giants won four of their last five games overall; under is 7-3-1 in their last eleven games.

American League
Royals @ Indians
Vargas is 1-1, 7.36 in his three starts; three of his last four went over.

Kluber is 0-2, 3.25 in his four starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Indians lost five of last seven games, with eight of last ten staying under the total- they're 5-2 in last seven games with Kansas City (four of last six under). Royals lost three of last four games (under 5-2-1 in last eight).

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Sanchez is 1-2, 5.14 in his three starts (under 2-0-1).

Kelly is 1-0, 4.08 in his three starts; three of his last four went over.

Toronto lost four of last six games with Boston; six of last eight stayed under total. Blue Jays lost four of last five road games. Red Sox lost four of last five games- four of those five went over the total.

White Sox @ Orioles
Noesi is 0-5, 5.28 in his last five starts; last four stayed under.

Jimenez is 1-1, 2.30 in his three starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four.

Chicago lost eight of last ten games with Baltimore (under 7-2-1); they've won three of last four games- under is 5-0-1 in last six. Orioles won four of last five home games; seven of their nine home games went over.

Rays @ Bronx
Karns is 1-1, 5.70 in four starts, all of which went over.

Warren is 1-1, 6.00 in three starts, all of which went over.

Tampa Bay lost six of last eight games with Bronx; six of eight went over the total. Rays won their last five games, allowing seven runs in last four, three of which stayed under. Bronx won eight of last ten (over 3-1-1 in last five).

Mariners @ Rangers
Walker is 0-2, 10.66 in his three starts this season.

Gallardo is 2-2, 4.79 in his four starts this season.

Mariners won five of last seven games with Texas; four of last five stayed under total. Seattle lost four of its last six; three of last four stayed under the total. Rangers lost five of their last seven games.

Tigers @ Twins
Price threw 51 pitches in first inning in last start, giving up eight runs in 2.1 IP; he is 0-1, 6.35 in his last two road starts. Under is 5-2 in his last seven.

Milone is 2-0, 4.34 in his three starts; six of his last seven went over.

Minnesota lost five of last seven games with Detroit; three of last four went under total. Twins won three of last four games (under 3-1). Detroit won five of its six road games.

Interleague
Astros @ Padres
McHugh is 8-0, 2.17 in his last eight starts, 3-0, 2.41 this season; seven of his last nine stayed under.

Shields is 2-0, 3.60 in his four starts; eight of his last ten went over.

Houston lost four of last five games with San Diego. Astros won seven of last eight games; five of their last six went over. Padres lost four of last five games, outscored 21-13; four of their last five stayed under.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
NY-Mia-- Gee 2-1; Cosart 1-2
Wsh-Atl-- Fister 1-2; Stults 1-2
Mil-Cin-- Nelson 1-2; Marquis 2-1
Pitt-Chi-- Worley 2-1; Hammel 1-2
Phil-StL-- Hamels 1-3; Lackey 2-1
Colo-Az-- Matzek 2-1; CAnderson 1-2
SF-LA-- Lincecum 1-2; BAnderson 1-2

KC-Clev-- Vargas 2-1; Kluber 0-4
Tor-Bos-- Sanchez 1-2; Kelly 2-1
Chi- Balt-- Noesi 0-2; Jimenez 1-2
TB-NY-- Karns 2-2; Warren 2-1
Sea-Tex-- Walker 0-3; Gallardo 2-2
Det-Minn-- Price 3-1; Milone 2-1

Hst-SD-- McHugh 3-0; Shields 2-2

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
NY-Mia-- Gee 1-3; Cosart 0-3
Wsh-Atl-- Fister 1-3; Stults 0-3
Mil-Cin-- Nelson 1-3; Marquis 2-3
Pitt-Chi-- Worley 0-3; Hammel 0-3
Phil-StL-- Hamels 2-4; Lackey 1-3
Colo-Az-- Matzek 2-1; CAnderson 1-3
SF-LA-- Lincecum 1-2; BAnderson 0-3

KC-Clev-- Vargas 0-3; Kluber 2-4
Tor-Bos-- Sanchez 1-3; Kelly 1-3
Chi- Balt-- Noesi 1-2; Jimenez 0-3
TB-NY-- Karns 1-4; Warren 1-3
Sea-Tex-- Walker 2-3; Gallardo 2-4
Det-Minn-- Price 1-4; Milone 1-3

Hst-SD-- McHugh 1-3; Shields 1-4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mayweather-Pacquiao Props

Odds provided by Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook - Subject to Change

FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JR vs. MANNY PACQUIAO

Date: Saturday, May 2, 2015
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Bout: Unified Welterweight Championship
Rounds: 12
TV/Time: PPV, 12:00 p.m. ET

BETTING ODDS (Opening Odds)

MANNY PACQUIAO +185 (+235)
FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JR -215 (-275)

OVER 11 1/2 -330
UNDER 11 1/2 +270

EXACT RESULT PROP

MANNY PACQUIAO BY KO, TKO OR DISQUALIFICATION 5/1
MANNY PACQUIAO BY DECISION 9/2
FLOYD MAYWEATHER,JR BY KO, TKO OR DISQUALIFICATION 9/1
FLOYD MAYWEATHER,JR BY DECISION 5/8
DRAW 8/1

*KO = KO, TKO OR DISQUALIFICATIO

PICK THE ROUND PROP

F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 1 (60/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 2 (50/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 3 (50/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 4 (40/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 5 (40/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 6 (40/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 7 (40/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 8 (30/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 9 (30/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 10 (30/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 11 (30/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR IN ROUND 12 (30/1)

M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 1 (60/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 2 (50/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 3 (50/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 4 (50/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 5 (50/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 6 (40/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 7 (40/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 8 (40/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 9 (40/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 10 (40/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 11 (40/1)
M PACQUIAO IN ROUND 12 (40/1)

*IF THE FIGHT ENDS IN A 12 ROUND DECISION OR DRAW, BETTOR LOSES*

ALTERNATE ROUND PROPS

OVER 10 1/2 -350
UNDER 10 1/2 +290

OVER 9 1/2 -400
UNDER 9 1/2 +330

OVER 8 1/2 -500
UNDER 8 1/2 +400

OVER 7 1/2 -600
UNDER 7 1/2 +450

OVER 6 1/2 -800
UNDER 6 1/2 +550

OVER 5 1/2 -1000
UNDER 5 1/2 +650

OVER 4 1/2 -1400
UNDER 4 1/2 +800

OVER 3 1/2 -3000
UNDER 3 1/2 +1200

OVER 2 1/2 -6000
UNDER 2 1/2 +1600

KNOCKDOWN PROPOSITIONS

WILL MANNY PACQUIAO BE OFFICIALLY KNOCKED DOWN?
YES +300
NO -360

WILL FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JR BE OFFICIALLY KNOCKED DOWN?
YES +300
NO -360

WILL MANNY PACQUIAO OR FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JR BE OFFICIALLY KNOCKED DOWN?
YES +120
NO -140

WILL MANNY PACQUIAO AND FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JR BE OFFICIALLY KNOCKED DOWN?
YES +1000
NO -2000

WINNING ROUND GROUPS

F MAYWEATHER, JR WINS IN ROUNDS 1-3 (25/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR WINS IN ROUNDS 4-6 (20/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR WINS IN ROUNDS 7-9 (15/1)
F MAYWEATHER, JR WINS IN ROUNDS 10-12 (20/1)

M PACQUIAO WINS IN ROUNDS 1-3 (22/1)
M PACQUIAO WINS IN ROUNDS 4-6 (15/1)
M PACQUIAO WINS IN ROUNDS 7-9 (15/1)
M PACQUIAO WINS IN ROUNDS 10-12 (18/1)

*IF THE FIGHT ENDS IN A 12 ROUND DECISION OR DRAW, BETTOR LOSES*

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 8:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 89 - Purse:$10000 - GUARANTEED $10,000 PICK 4 STARTS HERE OPEN II NORTHFIELD HN 2 & HN 4 UNCOUPLED DUE TO BONAFIDE SEPARATE OWNERSHIP


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 ILIKETHEMTRASHY 3/1


# 1 HE ROCKS THE MOON 2/1


# 8 I'M THE PIED PIPER 9/2


The pick in this contest is ILIKETHEMTRASHY. Cannot put a finger on it, but strongly consider this gelding for a bet. Can't pass over based on TrackMaster SRs which have been outstanding (91 avg) lately. This entrant has shown us some prior ability, just look at the 91 avg class rating. Should play well in this one. HE ROCKS THE MOON - Has competitive speed ratings and more than likely has to be thought of for a wager in this event. The panel of smart guys noted a sharp outing out of this contender last time. Hoping for a repeat effort of that to end up in the winner's circle. I'M THE PIED PIPER - This nice horse will have to be a play, based on the great driver/handler win percent.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 7:48 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 67 - Purse:$4500 - FIVE YEAR-OLDS AND UNDER - NW 2


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 LOONEY 9/2


# 7 METAMORPHOSIS 3/1


# 6 CHOCOUTURE 12/1


The consensus in this contest is that LOONEY is the one to beat. Getting a good thought about this gelding. Could surprise in this contest. METAMORPHOSIS - Could be the finest in the pack here, showing good ratings of late. Average speed is a solid 68. With a 69 avg class number, this interesting entrant has one of the top class advantages in the group. CHOCOUTURE - Amazing in the money stat for Wine and this contender. A nice chance to get the win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6600 Class Rating: 75

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 27, 2014. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 KNOCK ROCK 1/1


# 2 TRITONK 9/5


# 1 SARGE'S 5/1


I give the nod to KNOCK ROCK here. Will make a good showing versus this lot. The average class figure alone makes this entrant a definite contender. With a formidable 88 average Equibase speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. TRITONK - Has been running admirably lately and will probably be close to the front end early on. Put up a solid speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. SARGE'S - Has put up sound Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. Ranked high in earnings per start at the

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 75

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 27, 2014. THREE YEAR OLDS, 115 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 SAHHA 2/1


# 4 SURF QUEEN 9/5


# 7 LADY ARAGORN 3/1


I've got to go with SAHHA. Facing a much less demanding field of horses than last time out. This mare must be given a shot just off the earnings per start in dirt route races alone. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in recently. SURF QUEEN - Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 67 - of her last race. The average class figure of 69 makes this entrant tough to beat. LADY ARAGORN - She has been racing soundly lately while recording very strong speed figures. Sound average Speed Figures in dirt route races make this horse a key contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 3:10pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 AIR ALASKA (ML=5/1)


AIR ALASKA - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speed freak facing sluggish sorts today. I like when a thoroughbred has dropped in class at least five class points like this one did in the last race and then runs against a similar field right back. Krebs must've found the right level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SILVER MONEY (ML=2/1), #4 DIRECTED VERDICT (ML=3/1), #5 INTERRUPT (ML=6/1),

SILVER MONEY - Will probably be taught to pay some respect to her elders today. DIRECTED VERDICT - This was a live animal, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to think this one is suspect. Don't feel this questionable contender will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was pedestrian when compared with today's Equibase class figure. INTERRUPT - Will be hard for this racer to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the possibly overvalued contestants list.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #6 AIR ALASKA on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
6 with [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
6 with [2,3] with [1,2,3,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
6 with [1,2,3,4] with [1,2,3,4] with [1,2,3,4] Total Cost: $24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:49pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,800 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 SAHHA (ML=2/1)


SAHHA - This mare notched a good speed fig of 70 in her last event. That speed rating should be high enough to score this time out. Faced tougher in the last race at Turf Paradise. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders. This pony broke from the outside at Turf Paradise last time out, racing 1 mile, but is getting a low post in this race, which should help her chances today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SURF QUEEN (ML=9/5), #7 LADY ARAGORN (ML=3/1), #6 PERFECT LIGHT (ML=9/2),

SURF QUEEN - This questionable contender has been a bummer for the bettors as the favorite time and time again. LADY ARAGORN - Just can't invest in this racer. Didn't show me anything last out or on Nov 30th. Improbable that the fig she garnered on Apr 15th will be good enough in this event. PERFECT LIGHT - Just cannot wager on this racer. Didn't show me anything last race out or on March 9th. This mare recorded a rating in her last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's race.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 SAHHA on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 4/27 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

2,3,6/7/2,4,8/2,7,10 = $27

LATE $1 PICK 4: 1/ALL/1,5/8 = $20

MEET STATS: 28 - 94 / $125.40 BEST BETS: 6 - 8 / $19.60

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 7 / $0.00

Best Bet: BIG MAGICK (1st)

Spot Play: HUNCH MAN (7th)


Race 1

(8) BIG MAGICK put up a good fight vs. a big chalk that was taking an edge last time. He lays over this group and should graduate from the maiden ranks tonight. (9) CANADIAN WRITER had trouble advancing in a rapid third 1/4 but looks like one of the best of the rest in this field. (1) PACE SEELSTER showed promise at the end of last year's campaign and could share in his 2015 debut.

Race 2

(8) COVERT OPERATIVE looks much the best in here and likely completes a very chalky early double. (4) GUSCREST closed nicely last week but couldn't reach a long-gone winner. He may be the only legit threat to the top one. (6) TOP DOLLAR raced only evenly last time perhaps disliking the off track.

Race 3

(4) TAROT was driven more aggressively last week as expected and was an easy winner. Expect more of the same here. (1) HEMI SEELSTER finished behind the choice but that was his 2015 debut so he may get closer here with that race under his belt. (6) AMITYVILLE LINDY displayed issues and ability in the same race last week. He could threaten if he behaves.

Race 4

(2) THE BATTLE BEGINS opened a huge gap and tried to bottom out the field; it almost worked. A similar strategy here could pay off. (3) TICKET TO ROLL was beat by two that would be chalks in here after missing more than 3 weeks. Maybe with that tightener he can notch his second lifetime win here. (6) SPORTS IMAGE closed okay now moves to the middle of the gate from where he is likely sent early; using.

Race 5

(7) I SCOOT SAM rallied from an impossible spot to finish second in a rapid mile. There should be enough speed in here to set up his late charge. (9) CHEYENNE REIDER got the jump on the choice and was able to keep him at bay. He is in top form and is the main danger. (4) MR DENNIS put in a huge qualifying mile following his last race where it looked like something went amiss; using.

Race 6

(4) CRACKER ZACK was live last week but got into some traffic troubles. He should sit a good trip here and is a top contender. (2) CATCH THE DREAM makes his 2015 debut off a solid qualifier and this group is well within his reach. (8) MMS LUCKY BOY raced huge from the 10-hole last time to double up. He is dangerous again.

Race 7

(2) HUNCH MAN has had two impossible trips so far at the meet and did well to finish close up. With the move to the inside he should be on the move earlier; top call and Spot Play. (10) DECISIVE DESTINY shoots for 4 straight and has to be respected in his current form - even from out there. (7) A BOY NAMED SUZZ has run into traffic woes in many recent races. This one will trip out and pay huge sometime soon; beware.

Race 8

(1) LEGION OF BOOM drops out of the Youthful Series and looks best at a short price. (2) ARAMBLIN HANOVER tuned up for his season's debut with a nice qualifying win but is more likely for second or third than the win based on past performances. (9) MITT JAGGER returned with an impressive win but now has missed more than a month's action. He may be more likely for a minor share here.

Race 9

(3) ARI ALLSTAR wasn't pushed from the 10-hole last time but finished with good energy. He now drops and should be driven more aggressively here. (8) CAMS TUX closed with good energy in both starts off the layoff but may get too far back early here; tough call. (2) GENESSEE was re-claimed by his former owner and now steps into the conditioned ranks. He can produce big speed when he is right.

Race 10

(5) CHARMED LIFE looks ready to resume her winning ways based on her good qualifier over a very sloppy track; on top. (1) DAYLON MAGICIAN is obviously the one to beat and has returned to the racing wars in top form. He is likely a very short price here, however. (4) NORTHERN VICTORY showed much better as expected last week. He should share here.

Race 11

(8) P L IDAHO was a much easier winner than it looks on paper last time. He should repeat here if he behaves. (5) KONA KID flew home in his qualifier and could threaten right away. (1) SPORTSMANSHIP closed rapidly in that same qualifier and may be much better than last year; using. (7) HARBOR PLACE continues to be a good one to use in vertical wagers. (4) READ THE PROPOSAL was motoring up late last time and just missed. He races much better as a closer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 4/27 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 125 - 381 / $649.60 BEST BETS: 16 - 30 / $60.80


Best Bet: THE LADIES MAN (5th)

Spot Play: BLADE SEELSTER (9th)


Race 1

(3) DULL ROAR returns from The Meadowlands and lands a decent post in a very competitive event; Ford's barn has been pretty good of late. (5) ACHILLES BLUE CHIP raced willingly in his two starts since joining the Allard barn. (8) CAUTION SIGNS gets a very interesting barn change to Brainard off the claim but this looks like a tough spot.

Race 2

(1) NOT BEFORE EIGHT gets another free ride and will likely win at 1/5 but there's some interesting competition in here. (4) CAPELA had a nice two-year-old season in Canada and she could be ready for action off one qualifier. (6) IDEAL TAN also makes her 2015 debut for Burke and she showed speed in morning trials.

Race 3

(3) MONTREAL PHIL finally gets some post relief and the Lachance trainee has too much class to ignore. (1) STEVENSVILLE is transitioning to the aged ranks for Schnittker and he's raced well in his two seasonal starts. (5) BAZILLION is up in class off the claim and he was a blowout winner in last.

Race 4

(4) MYDELIGHT BLUECHIP had some decent pace at both ends of her mile last out and Brennan will be firing early. (2) MY CAROLINE returns from Saratoga and should be looking for a pocket trip. (7) ROCK ME GENTLY clearly has ability and she qualified well in preparation for her 2015 debut.

Race 5

(1) THE LADIES MAN was second best to a dropdown favorite last week and it appears the Burke trainee is ready to score. (7) HICKORY ICON went too fast last out and failed as the favorite; price will be much better tonight. (4) BELIEVEINTHESPIRIT needs to be closer to the action to have his best chance.

Race 6

(3) BACK TO THE WEST returns locally with some post relief, picks up Brennan and may be worth a look if the price is right. (4) BLACKTREE had finishing pace after saving ground last week; he could be more aggressively handled tonight. (2) EXTREME MACHINE N drops, moves back inside and has a small upset chance.

Race 7

(5) HAY STACKED was outbattled to the wire last week in the dense fog; Garcia-Herrera trainee hasn't put in a bad effort in ages and she deserves another chance. (1) GIGI DEO ships in after facing some soft stakes competition in Delaware; proceed with caution. (4) SMART ZONE showed good speed as a freshman but may need a start or two to show her best.

Race 8

(5) BULLVILLE KYLE was rebuffed last out by a sharp front-end rival but it was a decent try; Bartlett seems to get along well with him and he appears capable with a live trip. (1) STATION THREEOHSIX is hard to figure sometimes but he does get needed post relief. (4) HILARIOUS HALO also gets post relief off two no-chance tries.

Race 9

(7) BLADE SEELSTER may be able to blast from the gate and take these the distance at a price. (1) MORTAL ZIN drops a notch, lands back inside and should be close up throughout. (6) SCARLET CHASER held well after a tough trip last week and he could be a closing threat.

Race 10

(2) DAVID'S DREAM takes a needed drop in class tonight and he wired this type five back. (7) POP COP was a very good winner firing from the pocket last out and I'm sure he'll be forwardly placed again. (4) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP, like the top choice, also drops in class and can be more involved for Lachance.

Race 11

(2) MR HASANI N gets needed class relief, needed post relief and was Sears' choice; logical contender. (1) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE was much better in his second local start but Sears bails for the top choice; Bartlett drives. (3) SAFE HARBOR should save ground behind the top two and he can round out the trifecta.

Race 12

(1) INTHEPERFECTSTORM ships to Yonkers for sharp connections making his third U.S start after racing evenly at Pocono; one to beat in the finale. (2) TWIN B SPEEDO shipped north from Pompano and never got involved versus better last week; expect better. (4) HI HO STEVERINO is back at a level where he should be more competitive.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Mountaineer (5th) Princess Millie, 4-1
(8th) Flash Glory, 3-1

Parx Racing (1st) Tiara Gold, 3-1
(6th) Great Illusion, 8-1


Thistledown (4th) Lucky Place, 6-1
(8th) Southern Rogue, 4-1


Turf Paradise (2nd) Papa's Flashy Girl, 3-1
(5th) Roxie Hart, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kentucky Derby Odds

2015 Kentucky Derby Odds

Horse Odds

American Pharoah 3/1
Dortmund 4/1
Carpe Diem 6/1
Mubtaahij 8/1
Materiality 10/1
Upstart 14/1
International Star 16/1
Frosted 18/1
Firing Line 19/1
Danzig Moon 32/1
El Kabeir 32/1
Keen Ice 32/1
Itsaknockout 33/1
Far Right 34/1
Bolo 35/1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 40/1
War Story 40/1
Frammento 55/1
Mr Z 60/1
Stanford 60/1
Tencendur 90/1
Bold Conquest 100/1
Metaboss 100/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Derby Contenders - Part 1
By Anthony Stabile

This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses", culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned

INTERNATIONAL STAR (9-5-2-0)

TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 8)
JOCKEY: Miguel Mena (0 for 1)

RUNNING STYLE: He is a one-run closer.

AS A JUVENILE: Tried all three surfaces the sport has to offer, winning two of his six tries, including the G3 Grey over the synthetic surface at Woodbine. Also broke his maiden in his career debut on turf. Closed out the season with a fourth place finish in the G2 KJC at Churchill Downs.

THIS YEAR: A perfect three for three, International Star swept the three Fair Grounds preps in the same come-from-behind, gritty manner. He encountered some traffic trouble in both the G3 LeComte and G2 Risen Star when saving ground until the stretch and just kept on a comin’ at Stanford last out in the Louisiana Derby after a bit of a better trip.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 1st by neck 99 98
Risen Star, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 1st by 1 97 93
LeComte, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 1st by 2 ½ 94 90


CONNECTIONS: Mike Maker wins races in bunches across the eastern half of the country while his rider Miguel Mena, who has ridden him in his last three starts, had a fantastic meet down at the Fair Grounds this past winter.

WORTH NOTING: His owners, Mr and Mrs. Ken Ramsey, usually race home-breds but bought this New York-bred colt at auction for $85,000. His sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the Derby in 2000.

FAIR PRICE: Widely considered a second tier contender despite his unblemished record this season, I think 12-1 is about right but you’ll likely get higher.

DORTMUND (6-6-0-0)

TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia (0 for 3)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: Dortmund made three starts at three different racetracks in the final two months of 2014 and won them all from just off the pace, including an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs that was sandwiched between a maiden tally at Santa Anita and a gritty tally in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity.

THIS YEAR: He’s managed to run his record to a perfect six for six with three more graded stakes score this season. He alternated on the lead with Firing Line in the G3 Robert Lewis before re-rallying along the rail to win then took the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby in gate-to-wire fashion.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Sana Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 4 ¼ 106 106
San Felipe, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 1 ¼ 102 104
Robert Lewis, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by hd 101 104


CONNECTIONS: Baffert is a three time Kentucky Derby winner, including back-to-back wins in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet as well as War Emblem in 2002. Garcia hasn’t won the Derby but has won countless races for Baffert, including the 2010 Preakness aboard Lookin’ at Lucky.

WORTH NOTING: He’s one of two undefeated colts in the race. He’s named after a European soccer club like his stablemate, defending Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Derby.

FAIR PRICE: I think he should be the post time favorite, but that honor will more likely be bestowed upon his barn mate American Pharoah. If I were playing him to win I would accept 4-1.

CARPE DIEM (5-4-1-0)

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: John Velazquez (1 for 16)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: Carpe Diem won the first two starts of his career impressively, including the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland by daylight before running second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after an awkward journey.

THIS YEAR: He’s a perfect two for two, taking the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in his first start off of a four month layoff before an easy tally G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 1st by 3 102 95
Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, TB 1st by 5 96 98
B.C. Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 2nd by 6 ½ 93 93


CONNECTIONS: Arguably the most dominant duo in racing over the past 15 years or so, Pletcher won his lone Derby in 2010 with Super Saver while Velazquez won it the following year aboard Animal Kingdom when a late rider change was made the day before the race.

WORTH NOTING: His $1.6 million price tag is the highest of any runner that was sold at auction in this field. He has gone to post as the favorite in each of his five starts.

FAIR PRICE: In almost any other year, he’d keep that post time favorite streak intact but I think American Pharoah will steal that honor away. 6-1 is about right though he’ll likely be a point or two higher.


AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-4-0-0)

TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Victor Espinoza (2 for 6)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: After losing his debut on the synthetic surface at Del Mar, the blinkers came off at he won two consecutive G1 races, the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner at Santa Anita. He was scratched the week of the Breeders’ Cup with a foot injury.

THIS YEAR: A pair of runaway scores at Oaklawn in the G2 rebel and G1 Arkansas Derby, a race in which he showed some ability to rate for the first time in his career.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 1st by 8 102 1 05
Rebel, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 1st by 6 ¼ 99 100
FrontRunner, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 3 ¼ 99 101


CONNECTIONS: Baffert is a three time Kentucky Derby winner, including back-to-back wins in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet as well as War Emblem in 2002 with Espinoza aboard. Espinoza, of course, won last years’ renewal with California Chrome.

WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby entrants. It’s been reported that he has been running and training with a protective plate covering part of his hoof.

FAIR PRICE: He will be the favorite, that’s for sure. And he is getting a TON of good press, which will likely make him a bigger favorite than he should be considering the fact that this is widely considered a deep group of sophomores. I feel 5-1 should be his price but he’ll be lower than that.

FROSTED (7-2-4-0)

TRAINER: Kiaran McLaughlin (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario (1 for 5)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: After finishing second in his first two starts, Frosted galloped home when stretching out to a mile before chasing from an outside post and settling for second in the G2 Remsen on a day where inside speed reigned supreme at Aqueduct.

THIS YEAR: He was second off a nearly two month layoff in the G2 Holy Bull before spitting the bit in the stretch of the G2 Fountain of Youth after opening up to an easy lead on the far turn when racing with blinkers for the first time. Last out, after a minor throat surgery, a rider change and adjustment to the blinkers, Frosted won the G1 Wood Memorial under a hand ride.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 1st by 2 107 103
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 4th by 4 ¾ 89 85
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 2nd by 5 ½ 98 95


CONNECTIONS: McLaughlin has won countless G1 races, including the 2006 Belmont with Jazil and was second in the Derby with his first entrant, Closing Argument, back in 2005. Rosario piloted Orb through the slop to victory two years ago.

WORTH NOTING: The 107 Brisnet figure earned last out is the highest in the field.

FAIR PRICE: It’s hard to imagine getting over 10-1 on a horse that won the Wood Memorial at odds of 2-1 but that is exactly what is going to happen here. I would set his price at 8-1 but am expecting more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Derby Contenders - Part 2
By Anthony Stabile

This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses", culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned

MUBTAAHIJ (7-4-1-0)

TRAINER: Mike de Kock (Debut)
JOCKEY: Christophe Soumillon (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of off-the-board turf tries in England, Mubtaahij shipped to the U.A.E. and switched to dirt. He broke his maiden on New Year’s Eve against three and four-year-olds in his dirt debut.

THIS YEAR: He’s won three of four this year, including the Al Bastikaya and G2 U.A.E Derby going 1 3/16 miles. In the U.A.E. Derby, he took plenty of kickback behind a wall of speed horses early on before powering away to a daylight score while geared down through the final stages.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
U.A.E. Derby, 1 3/16 miles, dirt, Meydan 1st by 8 NA NA
Al Bastikaya, 1 3/16 miles, dirt, Meydan 1st by 2 ½ NA NA
U.A.E. 2000 Guineas, 1 mile, dirt, Meydan 2nd by hd NA NA


CONNECTIONS: While he’s making his Derby debut and isn’t a popular name when it comes to stateside racing, Mike de Kock is regarded as one of the best trainers in the world and has won over 200 G1 races worldwide. Soumillon has become one of his go to guys and is a Breeders’ Cup winner.

WORTH NOTING: Mike de Kock has started six horses in the U.S and all have finished in the trifecta. Like most of his previous runners, Mubtaahij will race without Lasix in the Derby. He is the only horse besides 1971 Derby and Preakness winner Canonero II to compete in the Derby having run twice past 1 1/8 miles.

FAIR PRICE: In a year that appears to have plenty of homegrown talent, this colt has gotten plenty of attention. With that said, there are still plenty of skeptics out there so you’ll probably get the 10-1 or 12-1 you should get.

MATERIALITY (3-3-0-0)

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 8)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: He didn’t race. Therefore, he will try to become the first horse to win the Derby without a start as a juvenile since Apollo in 1882.

THIS YEAR: After breaking his maiden in the slop in his debut, Materiality rolled home to an easy score in the Islamorada then dug in to hold off the more seasoned Upstart in an exciting renewal of the G1 Florida Derby.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 1 ½ 105 110
Islamorada, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ¾ 100 102
Mdn spcl wt, 6 furlongs, dirt, GP 1st by 4 ¼ 96 87


CONNECTIONS: Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, teams up with his “other” go-to guy, Javier Castellano, who hasn’t had much success in this race. Throughout the year, however, they are one of the most formidable duos in the land.

WORTH NOTING: The 110 Beyer figure earned last out is the highest in the field. He’s the only colt taking on the dreaded Apollo curse this season.

FAIR PRICE: On a Thursday afternoon at Gulfstream or Belmont or Saratoga, this recipe of an undefeated horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Castellano usually results in 3-5 on the toteboard. Amazingly, in this heat, you’re going to get about 10-1 on him.

EL KABEIR (9-4-2-2)

TRAINER: John Terranova, III (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 12)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden impressively on closing weekend at Saratoga in his second start, finished fourth in the G1 Champagne, second in the G2 Nashua then closed out his season with a gate-to-wire score in the G2 KJC at Churchill in his only start under Borel.

THIS YEAR: Easily won the G3 Jerome and G3 Gotham but suffered a pair of defeats in the G3 Withers as the 1-2 favorite and last out in the G1 Wood Memorial. He’s evolved a bit from a front running type to a bit of a closer. C.C. Lopez subbed for Lopez in the Jerome and kept the mount until this.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 3rd by 5 ¾ 101 94
Gotham, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 1st by 2 ¾ 95 88
Withers, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 2nd by 1 ¾ 94 93


CONNECTIONS: Terranova isn’t a usual player on the national scene but has gotten off to a solid start this year as he heads into Derby week winning at a bit over 20%. Borel, of course, was the darling of the Derby several years back, winning three in four years with Street Sense in 2007 and back to back scores with longshot Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010.

WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby Entrants. Two of his three stakes wins have come over wet tracks.

FAIR PRICE: Lost some of his value when they named Borel as his rider. He’ll probably be about 20-1 but should be a bit higher than that.

UPSTART (7-3-3-1)

TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (0 for 1)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of wins just nine days apart against New York breds at Saratoga, Upstart finished a solid second in the G1 Champagne before a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a race where he confronted a hot early pace a bit too soon.

THIS YEAR: Upstart made his presence felt immediately with a powerful score in the G3 Holy Bull. A workmanlike effort followed when he won the G2 Fountain of Youth where he was controversially disqualified from the win and placed second. Last out, he couldn’t get by the undefeated Materiality through the stretch of the G1 Florida Derby but did appear to be interfered with in the stretch. The stewards took no action.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt GP 2nd by 1 ½ 103 108
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP *1st by 2 ¾ 95 93
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ½ 105 105


CONNECTIONS: It’s fair to say Violette is better known for being a local NY guy who can get a juvenile ready than a major player on the big stage. Ortiz has quickly become one of the leading riders in NY and is one of the best on the front end in the nation.

WORTH NOTING: Missed a few days of training with a brief illness in mid to late April. Looking to become the first NY bred since Funny Cide in 2003 to win the roses.

FAIR PRICE: He’s had an interesting winter at Gulfstream, to say the least. Those stewards had a major impact on his year thus far and that will likely impact this toteboard. If he would have won all three in Florida, and he very well could have, he’d have been 8-1. Now, you’ll likely get 15-1 or higher.

FAR RIGHT (9-3-3-2)

TRAINER: Ron Moquett (Debut)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.

AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden in his third start/first for Moquett at Churchill then finished third in the Street Sense and in the G3 Delta Jackpot, a race in which he might have been best.

THIS YEAR: A rider change to Mike Smith resulted in a pair of exciting come from behind scores in the Smarty Jones and G3 Southwest, two races in which Smith made his move along the inside. Smith kept something in the tank when he guided him to a second place finish in the G1 Arkansas Derby when there was no catching American Pharoah.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 2nd by 8 93 92
Southwest, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 1st by ¾ 93 91
Smarty Jones, 1 mile, dirt, OP 1st by 1 ¾ 92 89


CONNECTIONS: Midwestern mainstay Moquett will be making his Derby debut while Mike Smith upset the Derby applecart with Giacomo in 2005 at over 50-1

WORTH NOTING: Owner Harry Rosenblum sold part of this colt this winter and all of fellow Derby entrant War Story after his maiden win.

FAIR PRICE: Slow speed figures combined with getting beat a pole in the Arkansas Derby is likely going to inflate his price. I would make him 20-1 but you are certain to get a whole lot more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Lightning (50-24) at Red Wings (43-25)

Date: April 27, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Following the franchise's best regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning's inability to solve Petr Mrazek and the Detroit Red Wings' defense could spell doom in the playoffs.

Coming off his second shutout of the series, Mrazek again looks to quiet the NHL's highest-scoring team Monday night and help the Red Wings close it out at Joe Louis Arena.

Tampa Bay averaged a league-high 3.16 goals en route to a team-record 108 points this season. Coincidentally, the only time the squad didn't score was in a 4-0 road loss to Mrazek and Detroit on March 28.

The 23-year-old netminder has continued that success against the Lightning in this series after finishing with 28 saves in a 4-0 win Saturday that gave Detroit a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven first-round matchup.

"Calm, solid all the way through," defenseman Niklas Kronwall said of Mrazek. "Doesn't get too high, doesn't get too low."

Mrazek is 4-2-0 with a 1.58 goals-against average with three shutouts in his last six starts versus Tampa Bay. Aside from allowing four goals on 18 shots in a 5-1 loss in Game 2, he owns a .960 save percentage in this series.

"He's an elite competitor ... and he's got good savvy about him. He thinks he's going to win," said coach Mike Babcock, who tabbed the young Czech as his postseason starter over veteran Jimmy Howard even though he had no previous playoff experience. "He's a real confident guy, and he's got great athleticism."

The Lightning weren't able to build on their dramatic rally in Game 4, when they trailed by two goals with less than six minutes remaining before Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat scored late in the third period. Johnson then added his fourth goal of the series in overtime for a 3-2 victory. No other Tampa Bay player has more than one in the series.

Steven Stamkos, who finished second in the league with 43 goals during the regular season, has yet to score after getting off only two of the team's 28 shots in Game 5. Nikita Kucherov is also scoreless in the series after he finished third for the potent Lightning with 29 goals during the season.

Tampa Bay went more than 20 minutes without getting a shot off during one stretch Saturday, while the club's suddenly slumping attack has gone just 2 for 24 on the power play in the five games.

"It's been frustrating not to score, especially for a team that's used to scoring," coach Jon Cooper said. "If you take the overtime out, we haven't scored in eight of the last nine periods. When the object is to score, it's tough to win without scoring."

The Lightning, who have advanced out of the first round only once since hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2004, will have to win for the sixth time in 23 all-time trips to Joe Louis Arena to keep their season alive.

With the offense struggling to score, they'll likely need a strong performance from Ben Bishop between the pipes. He has a 2.22 GAA in the series, but also owns a less-than-impressive .901 save percentage.

Tampa Bay will have to keep a close watch on Pavel Datsyuk, who has scored in each of Detroit's three wins after enjoying a rebirth with 26 goals and 65 points during the regular season. Defenseman Jonathan Ericsson also has been a key playmaker for the Red Wings with four assists in the series.

"No team's been able to win two games in a row in this series, and so now we've got to get our mind right, get it ready for the next game," Babcock said. "That, to me, is the biggest thing in the series. You've got to keep getting better, and you've got to find a way to do it when you get your opportunities."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Tampa Bay hasn't scored goal in periods 1-2 of last three games; they're 2-24 on power play in series, Red Wings 4-25-- Wings had two power play goals in Game 5, can wrap series at home- they are 1-4 in game following their last five wins. Lightning won nine of their last 14 games vs Detroit- under is 8-4-2 in last 14 series games. Under is 5-2-3 in Lightning's last ten games. Tampa Bay lost three of last five road games, scoring total of two goals in the three losses- they outshot Wings 41-23 in Game 5 but never lit the lamp.


Home side won eight of last ten Islander-Washington games. Islanders are 6-9 in last fifteen games overall, with under 4-2-1 in last seven vs Caps. Isles are 0-13 on power play in series-- total of only 31 penalties were called in last five games before fracas at end of Game 6 (Washington is 2-15 on power play in series). Caps won eight of their last 13 games; they won last two home games, scoring nine goals. Islanders outhit Washington 46-32 last game. Home teams are 26-18 in this round; over is 17-20-7. Over is 5-14-3 in Eastern Conference games, 12-6-4 out west.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Grizzlies (55-27) at Trail Blazers (51-31)

Date: April 27, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

With the league's best team waiting in the next round, the Memphis Grizzlies will be missing one of their key players as they try to close out the Portland Trail Blazers.

After taking a shot to the eye in Game 3, Mike Conley will only be able to watch Monday night when the Grizzlies try to complete the franchise's first playoff sweep.

Conley, who has also been dealing with a foot injury, went down in the third quarter of Saturday's 115-109 victory at Moda Center when Portland's CJ McCollum inadvertently elbowed him in the face.

The point guard stayed on his hands and knees for several moments before heading to the locker room. According to reports, Conley's left eye was swollen after he was taken to a local hospital for exams. The team said Sunday that Conley would return to Memphis for additional evaluation.

"Proud of my guys for stepping up!" Conley said on Twitter. "Huge win tonight. Thanks for all the thoughts and prayers. I will be fine!"

Conley has played a major role in Memphis taking a commanding lead in the series, averaging 17.0 points on 54.5 percent shooting in Games 1 and 2. He had 14 points and four assists before leaving Saturday's contest.

'He does so much for us, with the ball, with the defense, setting us up. He shoulders a huge amount of responsibility for us,' Memphis coach Dave Joerger said. 'So everybody else has to just pick it up, keep getting better, and be a little bit more focused in every single area. Every single possession is going to matter.'

A second-team all_defensive pick in 2012-13, Conley has also helped limit Damian Lillard to 16.0 points per game - 5.0 below his season average - on 10-of-37 (27.0 percent) shooting in the first two wins.

With Conley sidelined, the Grizzlies hope Beno Udrih can return after missing Game 3. The backup point guard finished with 20 points in the opener before spraining his right ankle in the first half of Game 2. Nick Calathes could also be in line for more minutes after providing a spark with 13 points off the bench Saturday.

"Without Mike, without Beno, I know how competitive we are," center Marc Gasol said. "I'm sure guys will be ready."

The banged-up Grizzlies could use the rest a sweep would bring ahead of a matchup with top-seeded Golden State in the Western Conference semifinals. They're seeking an eighth straight win and 13th in 14 meetings with the Blazers.

Gasol stepped up with 25 points while hitting 13 of 14 free throws Saturday. Courtney Lee has totaled 38 points in the last two games after scoring 20, while Zach Randolph added 16 against his former team.

Memphis has had its inside-outside game working in the series, outscoring Portland 144-102 in the paint while hitting 15 of 34 (44.1 percent) from 3-point range. Lee has made 5 of 7 from beyond the arc.

The Blazers face a daunting task as they try to become the first NBA team to rally from a 3-0 deficit. The only time they've come back from a 2-0 hole was when they claimed the franchise's only championship in the 1977 finals.

"It's certainly disappointing to be 0-3 in the series," coach Terry Stotts told the team's official website. "Obviously our backs are against the wall and our focus is going to be on getting a win on Monday."

The Blazers, who have dropped seven in a row, can start by keeping Memphis off the charity stripe after it hit a team playoff-record 39 free throws in 43 attempts in Game 3.

Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge haven't found their rhythm in this series. Aldridge totaled 56 points and 28 rebounds in the first two games, but went 1 for 10 in the first half Saturday before shooting 5 of 8 the rest of the way and finishing with 21 points.

Nicolas Batum looks to build on his playoff career-high 27 points in Game 3, while McCollum scored 26 after he had a combined eight on 4-of-21 shooting in the first two games. Arron Afflalo had five points in 26 minutes in his first action following a five-game absence due to a right shoulder strain.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Game of the Day: Monday's NBA playoff action

Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets (+4, 195.5)
Hawks lead series 2-1

The Brooklyn Nets came out with a purpose in Game 3 and ensured that their first-round Eastern Conference series would make it to at least five games. The eighth-seeded Nets will try to even things up at two games apiece when they host the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 on Monday.

Brooklyn leaned on Jarrett Jack and Brook Lopez to pull out Game 3 while turning up the pressure on the defensive end. “Just us playing at home,” Nets guard Joe Johnson told reporters. “It gives us extra motivation, that energy boost that we need. Guys really talking, communicating, moving on defense and switching - switching a lot.” The defensive effort keyed on stopping Atlanta sharpshooter Kyle Korver, who went 1-of-8 from the field. Korver missed all five of his 3-point attempts as the Hawks fell to Brooklyn for the first time in seven games this season.

TRENDS:

*Hawks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Nets last 4 overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 overall.
*Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.


Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls (-8.5, 187.5)
Bulls lead series 3-1

The Chicago Bulls weren’t able to close the series on the first try and will attempt to do so on the second opportunity when they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday. Sixth-seeded Milwaukee salvaged Saturday’s Game 4 on Jerryd Bayless’ last-second basket to halt a nine-game playoff losing streak and keep the Eastern Conference first-round series going.

Bayless eluded the defense of Derrick Rose to haul in Jared Dudley’s stellar inbounds pass and score the winning hoop in a 92-90 victory over the third-seeded Bulls that ranked highly important to Milwaukee. “As a whole, we have a long ways to go,” Bucks coach Jason Kidd told reporters. “But I thought with this being a character game, the group in that locker room showed a lot of character by finding a way to get a win.” Rose has had a strong series but turned the ball over late and then apparently lost his focus with the game on the line. “When you give up a layup for the game-winner, it’s hard,” Rose told reporters. “But I’m happy that I have the teammates I have, the coaching staff I have. I really believe I’m built for this.”

TRENDS:

*Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
*Bucks are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
*Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 road games.


Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers (-2, 193)
Grizzlies lead series 3-0


TRENDS:

*Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
*Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
*Over is 7-2 in Grizzlies last 9 road games.