NBA Monday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
(6) Bucks at (3) Bulls – 8:05 PM EST – TNT
Game 2 - Chicago leads series, 1-0
Is this the season the Bulls can finally jump that major hurdle and win the Eastern Conference title? Chicago’s health is back with Derrick Rose in the lineup and putting up a 23-point performance in his first playoff game in three years as the Bulls cruised past the Bucks in Saturday’s Game 1 with a 103-91 victory.
Chicago covered as eight-point favorites to pick up its fifth straight win overall, while snapping a six-game home losing streak in the playoffs dating back to 2013. The Bulls churned out 60 first half points to grab a nine-point halftime advantage, while limiting Milwaukee to just 40 points in the second half. Jimmy Butler led the Bulls with 25 points, as three players from Chicago’s frontcourt pulled down at least 10 rebounds (Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson). The Bucks shot just 39% from the floor, as Michael Carter-Williams and Giannis Antetokuonmpo each shot 4-of-13 in their postseason debuts.
Milwaukee has had its issues with Chicago this season, losing four of five matchups with its division rival. In all five games, Jason Kidd’s club has scored 95 points or less, while failing to cover in all three losses as an underdog at the United Center. The two teams cashed the ‘over’ for the first time in five meetings on Saturday, as the Bulls became the first team to break the 100-point mark in these contests.
NBA analyst Chris David provides his spin on Game 2 of this series, “I’m surprised the Bucks aren’t getting more points in Game 2 because the Bulls have a serious advantage in the backcourt and there is nothing Milwaukee can do about it. Since the team acquired Carter-Williams, they’ve gone 11-19, which includes Saturday’s loss. More importantly, they’re 11-18-1 versus the number during this span.”
The pick-up of the former Syracuse standout Carter-Williams hasn’t help Milwaukee down the stretch, as David explains. “The Bucks have been a great team to back on the road this season but if you delve into the numbers deeper, you can see the MCW affect has hurt these numbers. Before MCW joined the Bucks were 15-12 SU and 21-6 ATS on the road. With him, the team is 3-11 SU and 5-8-1 ATS. I understand Milwaukee traded Brandon Knight for contract reasons, but that move is going to get the Bucks swept in the first round,” David says.
Since losing to Memphis on March 9, the Bulls have won eight consecutive games at the United Center, while covering six times in this span. In the three road wins since the All-Star break for Milwaukee, two of those victories came against a pair of horrible squads, beating Philadelphia and New York in the final week of the season.
From a totals perspective, David believes the time is ticking on another high-scoring affair, “A lot of so-called pundits were putting in buy orders on the ‘under’ in Game 1 and that ticket was all but ripped up at halftime. I believe you’re going to see some ugly games in this series but I’d wait until the teams arrive in Milwaukee. The Bulls shoot better at home and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 26-16 at the United Center this season. Plus, the Bucks have seen the ‘over’ cash in five of their last six road tilts. My suggestion is to pass on the total in Game 2, hope for another ‘over’ and then come back with ‘under’ tickets in every game the rest of the way.”
(8) Pelicans at (1) Warriors – 10:30 PM EST – TNT
Game 2 – Golden State leads series, 1-0
The Warriors won a franchise-best 67 games this season and didn’t disappoint in their playoff opening victory over the Pelicans. Golden State couldn’t pick up the cover as 12 ½-point favorites in a 106-99 win, as the Warriors let a 25-point lead evaporate late in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans actually cut the huge deficit to down to four in the final minute before the Warriors held on for their third straight home playoff win dating back to last postseason.
All five Warriors’ starters finished in double-figures in Game 1, led by Stephen Curry’s 34 points on 13-of-25 shooting from the floor. Curry’s backcourt mate Klay Thompson put up 21 points, but did so on just 6-of-17 shooting, while the Golden State bench contributed only 12 points. Anthony Davis started slowly in his playoff debut, but the New Orleans star dropped a game-high 35 points in spite of foul trouble. Tyreke Evans played just 11 minutes and scored one point before exiting with a left knee contusion as the Pelicans’ guard is questionable for Game 2.
David says if you watched the game, the final score isn’t indicative of how well the Warriors played, “Even though the Pelicans earned the backdoor cover on Saturday, the Warriors was the right side. Golden State led by double digits the entire game and if it wasn’t for eight missed free throws in the four quarter, the Warriors probably cash tickets. Including Saturday’s game, Golden State has been a double-digit home favorite 28 times this season and it’s gone 27-1. What’s more impressive, the Warriors have gone 15-12-1 ATS in these situations.”
New Orleans owns a 3-5 ATS record in its past eight games as a road underdog, but has cashed three of four times in the role of a double-digit ‘dog this season. The Pelicans have lost six straight visits to Oracle Arena, but four of those defeats have come by 10 points or more.
Will the ‘over’ cash on Monday night? David breaks down the total perspective, “Most books closed Game 1’s total at 205 and it ended as a push, which was helped with a 55-point fourth quarter. Nineteen of those points came from the charity stripe and if that happens again, the ‘over’ has a great chance of cashing. There are a couple factors that would make me gun-shy of the ‘over’ on Monday. First, the pace wasn’t that fast in the opener and I don’t expect it to speed up anytime soon. Second, Evans is banged up and the Pelicans don’t have anybody similar to him that can create their own shots, except Davis. Lastly, after watching a handful of easy ‘over’ tickets connect this weekend, I’d expect things to balance out this week.”
