Monday 08/31/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Monday 08/31/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be used for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Randy Wolf (9-6, 3.25 ERA), Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers starting rotation was supposed to be the one thing that could prevent the club from making the playoffs for a consecutive year.

But thanks to consistent performers like this lefty, Los Angeles’ postseason chances are looking good.

The Wolfman, who’s been priced north of -200 just once this year, is 4-0 with a nifty 2.72 ERA this month and the Dodgers are 5-0 in his last five appearances.

The 33-year-old veteran has been the definition of consistent in 2009. He’s delivered quality starts in 11 of his last 12 trips to the bump.


Slumping

Brett Cecil (5-3, 4.96), Toronto Blue Jays

Cecil is one of many Jays whose hot play flew south too early for Toronto backers. The young left hasn’t last longer than 4 1-3 innings in any of his past three starts.

The Rays were the latest team to prematurely end Cecil’s day. Tampa Bay scored six runs (five earned) before Jays manager Cito Gaston relieved Cecil in the fourth inning.

“Up in the strike zone, he stayed most of the time,” Gaston said, while doing his best Yoda impersonation. “When he’s down he pitches pretty good, his fastball sinks and runs a little bit and his changeup is good down. It looks like he’s getting his body out in front of his arm and he’s dragging his arm through.”

Whatever’s wrong with the kid, it doesn’t appear to be a quick fix. Cecil is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA in August.

Nick Blackburn (8-9, 4.34), Minnesota Twins

If you faded the Twins each time this 27-year-old right took the ball over the last five weeks, your baseball bankroll should be in good shape.

Minnesota has come out on the losing end in seven of Blackburn’s last eight starts. He’s been taken out of the park six times in his last 15 innings and he has just one quality start in his last nine outings.


Returning

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves

Hudson is set to make his 2009 Major League debut on Monday. The veteran hurler missed the last 13 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June of 2008.

He’ll take Kenshin Kawakami’s spot in the rotation.

“It’s time for me to go out there and earn my paycheck,” Hudson told MLB.com.

The former Oakland Athletic has a $12 million option for next season, and how he pitches in the final month of the season will likely determine whether the Braves bring him back in 2010.

The signs have been positive in Hudson’s last few rehab starts. He was scheduled to make his minor league game last Friday, but was called to join the big club early.

From the sounds of things, it seems the Braves are confident their former ace will be able get his pitch count up to 100 Monday night.

“I feel ready,” Hudson told the Atlanta Journal Constitution. “This is something I’ve been looking forward to for a long time, and put a lot of long hours of hard work in just anticipating this start. I’m excited about it.”

Hudson was 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six rehab appearances.
 
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Vernon Croy

MLB | Aug 31
Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics Oakland Athletics
-125 at 5DIMES > 23h.
1* Take the Oakland Athletics on the Moneyline, We are actually getting very good value here Monday night with the Athletics at home who are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the Royals. The Royals are just 0-6 in Luke Hochevar's (6-7, 5.52 ERA) last 6 starts and they are just 3-8 in his last 11 road starts. The Royals are just 6-25 in their last 31 games against a lefty starter and they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record. Hochevar has allowed more than 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts and I look for the Athletics to hit him hard Monday night. Take the Oakland Athletics as my MLB Bonus Play for Monday night.
 
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Rob Vinciletti

MLB | Aug 31
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees
-1½-109 at 5DIMES > 20h.
On Monday the Bonus Play is the NY.Yankees on the run line.Game 915 at 7:05 eastern.The Yanks qualify in a solid system that plays on road favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored win of 2 or more runs,that are taking on an opponent off a home win that scored 5+ runs.This system is 11-1 and wins by 3.6 rpg.The Yankees have a solid A.Pettite going tonight.Pettite has won his last 3 starts and the Yanks have won 9 of his 12 road starts this year.In his career Pettite is 21-9 with a 3.69 era vs the Orioles.Back in July he dominated the Orioles going 7+ innings allowing just 1 run.For Baltimore tonight its righty J.Guthrie taking the mound tonight.He has been a major dissapointment this year.In his home starts the Orioles are 4-9 and he has a 5.31 era.Guthrie has allowed 11 earned runs in 19 innings vs the Yanks this year and an alarming 5 home runs in that span.The Yankees are 10-4 as a road favorite in this range,while Baltimore is just 1-4 as a home dog in this range.Ny.is averaging nearly 7 runs per game this past week,and could blow this one open quickly with their potent offense.On Monday I have 2 big MLB plays a 10-1 system side that wins by a 6-3 score and a totals play that averages over 12 runs per game.In Nfl action,I will release the Monday night selection on the Monday night radio show between 7-7:30 eastern on 88.9 wsia.fm.For the Bonus Play take the Yanks on the run line bol RV-
 

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if people are still chipping in for drgurusports football package id like to get in on that please PM me
 
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MLB WRITE-UP

Monday, August 31

Hot Pitchers
-- Maholm is 1-0, 1.23 in his last couple starts.
-- Marlins are 13-4 in Johnson's last 17 starts.
-- Oswalt is 1-1, 2.07 in his last two starts. Harden is 3-1, 2.16 in his last eight starts, but he's also been claimed by Minnesota on waivers and might get traded Tuesday.
-- Wolf is 4-0, 1.80 in his last four starts.

-- Detroit won Washburn's last four starts (1-0, 4.85).
-- Guthrie is 2-0, 1.13 in his last couple starts. Bronx won last five starts by Pettitte, scoring 43 runs.
-- Holland is 3-1, 3.00 in his last four starts.
-- Floyd is 2-2, 2.98 in his last seven starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Cueto is 0-6, 10.64 in his last eight starts. KWells allowed three runs in five IP in his first start this season. McCutchen was 13-6, 3.47 in 24 starts at AAA Indianapolis.
-- Hudson returns to big leagues after arm surgery; he is 146-77, 3.48 in his 303 career starts.
-- Stauffer is 1-4, 5.40 in his last five starts. LHernandez is 0-3, 8.85 in his last four starts.
-- Davis is 0-1, 5.79 in his last five starts.

-- Shields is 2-4, 5.72 in his last eight starts.
-- Cecil is 0-2, 10.50 in his last three starts.
-- Blackburn is 0-5, 8.92 in his last eight starts.
-- Hochevar is 0-4, 7.13 in his last six starts.
-- GGonzalez is 0-3, 7.47 in his last three starts.
-- Saunders has a 9.35 RA in his last nine starts. French has 5.59 RA in his five starts for Seattle, but Mariners won four of the five games.

Hot Teams
-- Reds won five of their last seven games.
-- Braves won six of their last nine road games.
-- Arizona won its last four games, scoring 38 runs. Dodgers won four of their last five games.

-- Detroit is 14-6 in its last 20 home games.
-- Bronx won 13 of its last 18 games.
-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.
-- Twins won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Mariners won six of their last eight home games. Angels won six of their last nine road games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost three of their last four games.
-- Marlins lost three of their last four games.
-- Cubs are 8-15 in their last 23 games. Astros lost six of last seven.
-- Nationals lost ten of their last thirteen games. Padres lost four of their last five home games.

-- Tampa Bay lost three of its last four games.
-- Orioles are 1-9 in game after their last ten wins.
-- Blue Jays lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- White Sox lost 18 of their last 25 road games.
-- Royals lost ten of their last fifteen games. Oakland lost eight of its last twelve games.

Totals
-- Under is 14-6-3 in last 23 Cincinnati home games.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in last twelve Florida home games.
-- Six of last eight Harden starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Stauffer starts went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Davis starts stayed under the total.

-- Seven of last nine Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Four of Guthrie's last five home starts went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Holland starts.
-- Nine of last twelve White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in Royals' last nine games.
-- Over is 13-1 in Saunders' last fourteen starts.
 
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Trend Report

1:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games

1:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games at home

7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore
NY Yankees are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. FLORIDA
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 5 games at home

7:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 2-7-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

8:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. CHI CUBS
Houston is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 8-15 SU in their last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games

8:05 PM
TORONTO vs. TEXAS
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games
Texas is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
Chi White Sox are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chi White Sox's last 12 games
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

10:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

10:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. SAN DIEGO
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

10:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. LA DODGERS
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

10:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. SEATTLE
LA Angels are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Seattle is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs (-140, NL)

Rich Harden may be headed to the Minnesota Twins. Milton Bradley may be talking his way out of town. But both are still helping the Cubs.

The Twins reportedly were awarded a waiver claim on Harden, who has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last eight starts. The Cubs have until noon Monday to let him go, pull him back or swing a trade, and Minnesota appears serious about acquiring the righthander and signing him to a long-term deal.

Bradley said last week he is "never comfortable" at Wrigley Field, accusing the fans of being verbally abusive and racist, then blaming the media for "twisted" his words. He has been booed for poor play for much of the season but is batting .545 (12-for-22) with nine runs, five walks and five RBI in his last five games.

The Cubs are 4-2 at home vs. the Astros this season, including a win over Wandy Rodriguez on July 27.

Pick: Chicago


New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+165, 10)

It's no shame to lose to the powerhouse Yankees, but the Orioles seem to do it with alarming regularity.

Since July 30, 2008, Baltimore has lost 16 of its last 19 meetings with New York. In those games, the Yankees are averaging 6.4 runs and have scored at least nine runs five times. The Orioles are averaging 3.9 runs and have scored two runs or less six times.

The Yankees have won the last seven meetings, averaging 6.6 runs while holding the Orioles to an average of three runs.

Baltimore also has lost its last eight games on Monday.

Pick: New York
 
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Black Widow

MLB | Aug 31
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers Tampa Bay Rays
-105 at SPBOOK > 4h.
Widow’s MLB Free Pick for Monday:

1* on Tampa Bay Rays -105
(List Shields)

This has been a back-and-forth series between the Rays and Tigers. Detroit took Game 1 and Game 3 while the Rays won Game 2. We foresee the Rays taking Game 4 to cap off a series split Monday behind Ace James Shield who has posted a solid 3.81 ERA on the year. Jarrod Washburn was victimized in his last home start. Washburn gave up 6 earned runs, including 4 home runs, against the Seattle Mariners on August 20th. Shields has never lost against the Tigers, going 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against Detroit, all Tampa Bay victories. Take the Rays on the Money Line.
 
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Info Plays

MLB | Aug 31
Arizona D-Backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
-180 at SPBOOK > 13h.
InfoPlays Monday, August 31st Bonus Play:

3* on L.A. Dodgers -180
(Listing Wolf)

Reasons why the Dodgers win:

1.) It’s been a wise move to back Randy Wolf all season, especially in the second half. The Dodgers are 5-0 in Wolf’s last 5 starts overall, 8-1 in his last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 14-3 in Wolf’s last 17 starts as a home favorite. He has been the Ace of this team all season long. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks are 0-8 in Doug Davis’ last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

2.) Wolf is 10-0 against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 3 seasons. What more trends do you need about this guy? He doesn’t have letdowns against the worst teams in the game, instead he ups his performance. The Diamondbacks fall into that "worst team" category tonight. Bet the Dodgers at home.
 
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John Martin

MLB | Aug 31
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Houston Astros
+144 at 5DIMES > 11h.
Martin’s Monday MLB Bonus Play:

1 Unit on Houston Astros +144
(Listing Oswalt Only)

The Chicago Cubs are in shambles right now. The Astros haven’t been playing much better, but with Ace Roy Oswalt going to the bump I will take advantage of this excellent value price on Houston Monday. Oswalt hasn’t missed a beat this year, going 7-5 with a 3.86 ERA on the season. Rich Harden has been a disappointment in front of Cubs fans at home. Harden is just 3-5 with a 6.13 ERA at home this season. He has given up 8 earned runs in his last 2 home starts vs. the Astros in just 11.7 innings. Oswalt is 24-5 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season since 1997. Better yet, Oswalt is 42-7 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997 Cash in with Houston as the underodg.
 
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Robbie Gainous

MLB | Aug 31
LAA Angels vs. Seattle Mariners LAA Angels
-134 at 5DIMES > 13h.
The LA Angels travel north for the start of a seven-game road trip that begins on Monday night in Seattle they will play three against the Mariners and then on to Kansas City for a four-game set against the Royals before returning home. With a 9 to 1 victory on Sunday over the A’s they were able to manage a split in that four-game series and hope that the momentum from that win carries over here. LA is 39-26 (+17.0) on the road this season and 34-19 (+9.0) during the second half of the season this season. The Angels have been solid against left-handed starters posting a record of 27-14 (+12.1) against them. They have also done a good job in this series going 33-18 (+11.8) the last three seasons and 17-9 (+7.9) when playing in Seattle. Finally they will send Joe Saunders to the bump with his 6-1 record against the Mariners and an ERA of 3.60. We will back the visiting Angels here as they get the Game One victory over the host Mariners on Monday night in Seattle.

Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Angels 4 Seattle Mariners 1
 
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Craig Trapp

NFL | Aug 31
Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans Total
39 un-110 at SPBOOK > 11h.

Under 39 Min/Hou: This game has under written all over it. Brett Farve looks to play most of the first half and by all accounts is still trying to learn the offense. Even better the MIN defense looks to be in midseason form holding there opponents to only 16 pts thus far in preseason. The Vikings in fact have not allowed a team to score above 16 pts in a preseason game since 2008. In the last two years the under is 5-1 in the Vikes Preseason game. Houston offense has struggled being held in check by a poor NO team in there last start. But the HOU defense has looked good in spurts and with the Vikes struggling on offense should be able to hold them in check. The backups for both of these teams have really struggled and should help us hold the under late. SCORE MIN 17 - HOU 13
 
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Marc Lawrence MLB Bonus Play! - Monday 8/31
Play On: L.A. Dodgers w/Wolf vs Davis

Note: The Dodgers open a critical four-ame series with the Diamondbacks tonight when Randy Wolf opposes Doug Davis in a battle of left-handers at Chavez Ravine. Moyer enters tonight game knowing he is an eye-popping 17-3 in his last 20 team starts in August. He's also 15-4 his last 19 team starts at home and 11-4 in his career team starts against Arizona. With Davis just 2-6 in his last 8 road team starts and 0-3 with an 11.04 ERA in his last three starts in this park, we'll stay at home the Wolf and the Dodgers here tonight.
 
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Bobby Maxwell

FREE winner on Sunday as the Phillies edge the Braves 3-2 in Philadelphia. Tonight I've got a comp winner coming on the Vikings as they are in Houston for the final Week 3 preseason contest.

I'm loving the Vikings in this one because they are tired of all the off-field stuff brought on by the signing of Brett Favre and they just want to get on the field and unleash some frustration. Especially loving them because all 11 defensive starters will be on the field for the first half, and this is a beast of a defense.

Jared Allen and Pat Williams will be back on the line so don't look for the Texans to be able to run the ball and look for a lot of pressure on Matt Schaub when he drops back to pass.

As for the offense, Favre has had a lot of work this week to get up to speed on the offense and he'll get all the snaps in the first half. That will give him time to put up a couple scores. Then look for the fun to begin in the second half as Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson battle for the backup QB spot and essentially a spot on this roster. Those two guys are both quality QBs and to give them action against backup defenders will lead to some Minnesota points.

Houston got drilled by the Saints 38-14 last week at home and after Schaub leaves in the third quarter, it will be Dan Orlovsky for the rest of the game. Rex Grossman is on the roster but won't suit up for this one with a nagging hamstring injury.

The Vikings went on the road to beat the Colts 13-3 in the opening game of the exhibition campaign and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five preseason games. They are also 5-2 ATS in exhibition road games and 5-2 ATS as a 'dog. Meanwhile Houston is just 1-5 SU in Week 3 action since 2003 and 1-5-2 ATS as a favorite since 2004.

This one will be all Minnesota as the Vikings defense dominates the contest. Play Minnesota.
4♦ MINNESOTA
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline

The White Sox-Yankees OVER on Sunday makes it a 27-11-2 comp play run.

For Monday, play the UNDER in the Arizona-Los Angeles meeting at Dodger Stadium.

Both teams held UNDER on Sunday, as the Diamondbacks have now played LOW in 2 straight, and 5 of their last 8.

Sunday's UNDER for the Dodgers puts them on a 9-1-1 UNDER clip their last 11 games.

As for series meetings, the Snakes and Bums have been to a tune of 6-2-1 the last 9 meetings, including 3 of the 4 meetings in Los Angeles.

Doug Davis is coming off 8 innings of 3 run ball, while Randy Wolf has allowed just 5 earned runs over his last 22 innings of work.

Our feeling is runs will be at a premium this Monday night.

Play on the UNDER.
4♦ UNDER
 
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Dominic Fazzini

I scored a winner with my complimentary play Sunday as the Marlins topped San Diego 6-4. That boosted my record over my last 30 Bonus Plays to 18-12. Let's keep things rolling into the work week now!

Angels starter Joe Saunders (10-7, 5.27 ERA) pitched pretty well Wednesday in his first outing since spending 2 1/2 weeks on the disabled list with tightness in his throwing shoulder. The left-hander allowed two runs and four hits with six strikeouts in five innings of a 4-2 victory over Detroit.

Saunders pitched well the first two months of the season, but struggled after that before finally admittiing his shoulder wasn't right and going on the DL. The 2008 AL All-Star is 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA in six starts against Seattle over the past two seasons, including going 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two outings earlier this year.

Luke French (4-3, 3.92) is 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five starts with the Mariners since being acquired from Detroit on July 31. The rookie left-hander gave up three runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings Wednesday in a 5-3 win over Oakland.

I expect Los Angeles, which is 28-14 against southpaws, to have a big night against French, who has never faced the Angels. If Saunders pitches like he was in April and May, when he was 6-3 with a 3.26 ERA, Los Angeles should have an easy time tonight. Take the Angels in this one.
4? L.A. ANGELS
 
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Karl Garrett

For Monday, underdog winner goes out on Toronto over Texas.

Brett Cecil is 0-3 over his last 4 starts, but his counterpart Derek Holland is coming off an alarming 6 run, 6 inning shell-job at the Yankees, and I have a feeling Mr. Holland may be giving up a few more tonight.

The Blue Jays have been sticky for the Rangers this season, as Toronto has won 4 of the 6 games played. Toronto has also enjoyed swinging the bats at Arlington, as they have won 2 of the 3 played there this season, and are 6-3 since last season at Texas.

Toronto has no pressure on them at all, while Texas is trying desperately to hang in there in both the AL West, and the Wild Card chase.

G-Man feels this price is a tad inflated.

Take the underdog Jays to continue to be a thorn in the Rangers side.
1♦ TORONTO
 

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