Monday 07/06/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Monday 07/06/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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MLB WRITE-UP

Monday, July 6

Hot Pitchers
-- Cueto is 4-1, 4.25 in his last six starts.
-- Wells is 3-0, 2.18 in his last three starts.
-- Hampton is 2-1, 2.16 in his last four starts. Vasquez is 1-1, 3.75 in two starts for the Pirates.
-- Marquis is 3-1, 3.63 in his last five starts.
-- Cain is 6-1, 2.25 in his last nine starts.

-- Bronx won eight of last ten Pettitte starts. Romero is 3-1, 1.53 in his last five starts.
-- Bergesen is 4-1, 2.05 in his last eight starts.
-- Millwood is 4-1, 2.41 in his last six starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Hamels is 0-3, 7.02 in his last three starts.
-- Jurrjens is 1-4, 4.21 in his last six starts.
-- Stammen is 1-3, 6,04 in eight starts this season.
-- Arizona lost Garland's last eight starts (0-6, 5.51) but he has a 3.26 RA in his last three outings. Silva is 0-2, 10.55 in five starts this year.
-- West has a 6.30 RA in his last four starts.

-- Anderson is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts. Smoltz is 0-1, 6.00 in two starts for the Red Sox.
-- Galarraga is 2-7, 7.01 in his last 12 starts. Meche is 0-3, 10.05 in his last three outings.
-- Weaver is 1-1, 8.64 in his last three starts.
-- Washburn is 1-2, 4.85 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Reds won three of their last four road games. Phillies won last three games, allowing three runs, after losing eight of their previous nine home contests.
-- Braves won five of their last seven games. Cubs won five of their last seven games.
-- Astros are 14-8 in their last 22 home games.
-- Rockies won eleven of their last fifteen home games.
-- Marlins won five of their last six games, but lost five of six on road. Giants are 14-5 in their last 19 home games.

-- Bronx Bombers won ten of their last eleven games.
-- Rangers won their last five games, scoring 38 runs. Angels won ten of their last fourteen home games.
-- Mariners are 12-6 in their last eighteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 15 of their last 22 road games.
-- Nationals lost 18 of their last 22 road games.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last eight home games. Padres lost four of their last five games overall.

-- Blue Jays lost five of their last six road games.
-- Tigers lost six of their last nine games. Royals lost 12 of their last 18 games.
-- Red Sox are just 5-5 in their last ten games. A's are 7-14 in their last 21 games.
-- Orioles lost six of their last eight games.

Totals
-- Over is 5-1-2 in Cincinnati's last eight road games; five of Phillies' last six home games stayed under the total. .
-- Six of last eight Atlanta road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine games at Minute Maid Park.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in Colorado's last eleven home games.
-- Over is 10-3 in Arizona's last thirteen home games.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Cain's last seven starts.

-- Four of last five Toronto road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven games at Detroit went over the total.
-- Under is 12-5-1 in last eighteen games at Fenway Park.
-- Six of last nine Texas road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Baltimore games.
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros (-155, 9)

Things might finally be coming together for Houston. The Astros have won six of 10 and if they can find a way to jump start their anemic offense, they have a chance in the NL Central, as they are just four games out.

Houston’s biggest issue is its offense, which has scored the second-fewest runs in the NL (324). Playing at Minute Maid Park this season, the Astros also have a 14-24-2 O/U record.

But its not like the Pirates are going to score runs. Pittsburgh averages just 4.34 rpg (21st) and has hit only 55 home runs (28th).

"Keep your team in the game and give yourself a chance,” Houston manager Cecil Cooper told the Associated Press. “If we can put some runs up, we've had a chance to win.”

Pick: Under 9


Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (-116)

The Cubs are making life unbearable for opponents at Wrigley Field this summer. Chicago has the second-fewest home losses in the NL (24-14) and is averaging five runs per game in its past 10 home contests (7-3).

This recent trend is big for the Cubs, who are among the bottom of the barrel in runs scored at home (172) and home batting average (.258 BA).

Meantime, the Braves have lost seven of their past 10 road games and scored three or fewer runs six times during that span. This is especially troubling, as Atlanta's .264 road batting average is in the Top 10 in the league.

The Braves, who scored just six runs in two straight losses to the Nationals, need to do much better if they are to trip the red-hot Cubbies.

Pick: Cubs -116
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves)

Braves leftfielder Matt Diaz knows exactly how good a pitcher his teammate is.

"He’s unbelievable," Diaz told the Associated Press of Jurrjens. "He should be an All-Star as is and if we could score him any runs he'd be a leading Cy Young candidate at the halfway point."

Jurrjens (6-6, 2.73) has been hampered by poor defense behind him and a lack of run support, but none of that stopped him from putting together three straight quality starts. In his most recent outing, an 11-1 win over the Phillies, Jurrjens gave up only one hit and no earned runs over seven innings.

If Jurrjens, 23, can lower his 1.24 WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched), he could emerge as one of the top young right-handers in the game.

Jarrod Washburn (Seattle Mariners)

Washburn won’t throw a complete game and he likely won’t fan 10 batters in seven innings. But the 34 year old knows how to throw strikes and keep hitters off balance.

Washburn (4-6, 3.36 ERA) has allowed no more than four runs in each of his past seven starts, lasting at least six innings each time out. In his most recent outing, a 4-2 loss to the Yankees, he allowed all the runs, but went seven strong, striking out six along the way.

The key to Washburn’s success is his ability to locate the ball low in the strike zone. The fly-ball pitcher struggles when he lets the ball get away from him. In the loss to the Yankees, he gave up three long balls at the team's new stadium. But that hasn't kept opposing managers from being enamored with his play this year.

"Washburn reinvented himself. I saw a different pitcher," Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon, who was the bench coach with the Angels when Washburn was there, told the Associated Press. "He is throwing entirely different than in the past... He is a different cat right now.



Slumping

Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies)

The ace of the defending World Series champions appeared to be regaining the form that made him nearly unhittable last October. That was, however, until his past two starts.

Hamels (4-5, 4.98 ERA) admitted to reporters earlier this season that he failed to properly prepare in the months leading up to spring training. On July 1 in Atlanta, he again looked anything but prepared as he was hammered for seven earned runs on nine hits in just four innings.

His start before that, the left-hander lasted a meager 4 2-3 innings as he was tagged for four earned runs on eight hits against the Blue Jays.

"I feel healthy,” Hamels told the Associated Press. “My body feels good. I'm just not hitting my location. I can't seem to stop the bleeding."

Walter Silva (San Diego Padres)

The 32-year-old right-hander was thrilled when the Padres promoted him from Triple-A last month. But no one has been pleased with Silva’s performance since he arrived.

Silva (0-2, 8.86 ERA) received no help from his defense in his most recent start as he yielded six runs (three unearned) in only four innings of work against the Astros. His previous outing, also a disaster, lasted just 2 1-3 innings as he gave up nine runs on seven hits to go with for walks in a 12-2 loss at Texas

And after Silva was shelled against the Rangers, manager Bud Black even gave him a vote of little confidence.

"We'll keep going out there with the five best [starters] in the organization at any given time," Black told the Associated Press. "Since April, there's been a little changeover."

The Padres have six right-handed pitchers on the DL.
 
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Total watch: Baseball's best over/under plays

Under

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have an over/under record of 38-41-3 this season, but have continually been below the number the past two weeks.

In fact, Tampa Bay has gone under in seven of its past 10 games. The biggest reason? It’s pitching. The Rays have been bolstered by the healthy return of Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza has been rock solid for the team. Once hurler David Price rounds into form, combined with a very athletic defense, this team could be a routine under play.

Before giving up 12 runs to Texas Saturday, the Rays pitchers had yielded an average of just 2.1 runs per game in their previous nine outings.

Kansas City Royals

This team’s popgun offense has been one of its biggest weaknesses. The Royals, which have gone under the total eight times in the past 10 games (1-8-1), are hitting a horrendous .250 BA as a team and have hit just 68 home runs this year.

In those 10 games, the Royals averaged just 2.7 runs per game.

Combine that number with above-average pitching (4.28 ERA) and you have the team’s 34-44-3 O/U record. The team’s pitching shouldn’t change dramatically any time soon, so continue to keep an eye on this trend.

Over

Milwaukee Brewers

Welcome to the opposite of the Royals. Milwaukee has scored 385 runs this season, 12th most in the league, but can’t catch a break from a depleted pitching staff.

In the past 10 games, the Brewers topped the number six times, allowing opponents to score at least six runs five times. The team’s ERA is 24th in the league at 4.48.

But helping to boost the run total even more is the team’s offense. The Brewers have mashed 95 home runs this season and have scored at least six runs five times during that same 10-game stretch. For the season, Milwaukee’s over/under record is 42-39-1.

Unless the Brewers make a trade, this trend will continue.

Los Angeles Angels

Nothing helps boost the over numbers like a four-game visit from the Orioles and their atrocious pitching staff. In its past 10 games, the Angels have a sterling, 6-3-1 over/under record.

Los Angeles leads the Majors with a .280 batting average and is among the leaders with a 5.21 runs per game average.

But that’s not all.

The team’s pitching staff has also been suspect at best this season. The Angels' 4.68 ERA is the fifth-worst in the league as the Halos have yielded at least six runs five times in the past 10 games.

The Orioles won’t be in town every weekend, but with Texas and New York on tap next week, this trend should easily continue.
 
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Info Plays

MLB | Jul 06
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers
-135 at BODOG > 12h.
Info Plays Monday, July 6th Bonus Play:

3* on Detroit Tigers -135
(Listing Galarraga and Meche)

Reasons why Detroit wins:

1.) Gil Meche’s struggles will have the Tigers winning with room to spare. Meche is 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and 2.094 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That means he’s giving up more than 2 base runners per inning, and he has also allowed 5 home runs during this span. Armando Galarraga has dominated the Royals over the past 2 seasons, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 3 starts against Kansas City. The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games as well.

2.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (KANSAS CITY) - with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts. This is a 47-14 ML System hitting 77% over the last 5 seasons. We’ll back the better starter and the better team playing at home where they are riding an 8-game winning streak Monday. Bet Detroit at home.
 
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Craig Trapp

MLB | Jul 06
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Total
9 un-125 at BOOKM > 12h.

Betting Trends


-Under is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 overall.


-Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.


-Under is 6-1-2 in Phillies last 9 overall.


-Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 home games.



These two teams are very similar at this point of season. Both teams have been very poor at the plate recently. In fact in the last 10 games these two teams are only averaging PHI 3.4 and CIN 3.9 runs per game. Both of those are among the worst in the league! If that is not enough to convince you we have the best two pitchers of these staffs. Cueto for the Reds has struggled to get some wins recently but he still has a 3.00 ERA and he has downright nasty stuff. For PHI Hammells goes for them trying to get a much needed win. Hammells has been very good verse the Reds historically shutting them down going 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in 5 starts. No way this game goes over today. UNDER 9 CIN/PHI
 
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Big Al McMordie

MLB | Jul 06
Florida Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Florida Marlins
+150 at BODOG > 15h.
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Florida Marlins over San Francisco. Although this looks like a big mismatch on the mound, in favor of the SF Giants, I think the price is an overlay, given the Giants' weak offense, and can't pass up the Marlins at this price, even with Sean West on the hill. San Francisco is scoring just 4.2 runs per game, compared to Florida's offense which produces 4.6 runs per game. And Sean West has a respectable 4.06 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, including 3.55 on the road (with a 1.02 WHIP). Matt Cain does have better numbers than West, but the Giants have lost his last two starts. Finally, West shut out San Francisco back on June 8, when he hurled eight shutout innings and gave up just two hits, en route to a 4-0 Florida victory. Take the Marlins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
 
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John Martin

MLB | Jul 06
Florida Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Florida Marlins
+150 at SPBOOK > 15h.
Martin’s Monday MLB Bonus Play:

1 Unit on Florida Marlins +150
(Listing West Only)

This is too good of value to pass up Monday, so I’ll pull the trigger on the Marlins as my free pick. Florida has won 5 of their last 6 games, and they have been consistent on the road all season, posting nearly a .500 record away from home. Sean West has been a pleasant surprise as a starter for the Marlins this year, going 3-2 with a solid 4.06 ERA in 8 starts. The Giants have not hit lefty pitching well at all this season, scoring 4.2 runs/game with a .258 batting average against lefty starters. Matt Cain is having a great season, but that still doesn’t hide the fact that Cain is 13-29 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 games with a Total Set of 7.0-8.5 runs. Though San Francisco has a slight edge on the mound, Florida’s offense can make up for that in a hurry. Plus, Sean West dominated the Giants earlier this season, not allowing a single earned run on 2 hits and 1 walk in 8 innings of a 4-0 shut out victory back on June 8th less than a month ago. Cash in with the Marlins as the underdog.
 
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Dave Cokin

(969) TEXAS RANGERS
(970) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take "(970) LOS ANGELES ANGELS"

Big series for both teams with things being so close right now in the AL West. The scheduling dynamics here favor the Halos, and they're also out to avenge the recent series loss at Texas. The Angels are also absolutely clobbering the ball right now and Vlad Guerrero is suddenly getting hot. With Weaver throwing the opener, I will side with the Angels.
 
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Jim Feist

(969) TEXAS RANGERS
(970) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take "(969) TEXAS RANGERS"

Rangers and Angels are in a dead heat for first place in the NL West. The Rangers have won five straight games and seven of the last 10 while the Angels have won two games and seven of the last 10. Both teams are plus in run differential this season. Kevin Millwood starts tonight for the Rangers. Millwood is having another fine year with a 8-5 record and 2.80 era. The righthanded veteran has 150 career wins. Jered Weaver will start for the Angels. Weaver is 8-3 on the season with an equally fine 3.10 era. He's had a rough time this season against the Rangers, starting twice, going 0-1 with 13 1/3 innings and a 6.75 era. Always good value in a decent dog that matches up equally against their competition. Both teams are just about equal on all levels, though the Rangers have been the hotter team of late. We'll take the dog here in a good valued spot.
 

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#1 Sports

Monday's free selection:

Oakland Athletics + 210
 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: MLB

Houston w/Hampton -155 Over Pittsburgh
 

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Platinum Plays

Free Selection MLB:

COLORADO ROCKIES - 200 OVER the Washington Nationals
 

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Totals4U

Monday's free selection:

Oakland/Boston over 10 runs
 

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection

NY YANKEES w/Pettitte -150
 

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Free Selection

Toronto +140 over Yankees
 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Selection

Philadelphia Hammels -150
 

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