Monday 06/29/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Monday 06/29/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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Monday's News and Notes

June 28, 2009
By Josh Jacobs
VegasInsider

Major League Baseball returns to business as usual on Monday. While interleague play was hot and heavy in the first go-around at the end of May, it almost feels like an exercise in futility rather then a short burst of enjoyment. But this is wholly an individual opinion on my part.

Whatever your personal feeling is on the yearly AL-NL mix-up the schedule will now return to status quo. That leads us to the first day of a new week and the card it carries over inside the pockets of fellow gamblers.

Sour Slinging

It hasn’t been fun pitching in Washington’s (21-51, -2561) rotation. Just take it from Scott Olsen (1-4, 7.24 ERA). Slated to return to the mound after a one-month layoff on the DL (shoulder tendinitis), Olsen would love to press the reset button on the season. In three straight starts before his stint on the DL began, the lefty was credited for allowing 15 earned runs (five per start) in a total of 14.1 innings. Whether facing fellow southpaw batters or going up against the orthodox right-handed swinger, Olsen has been battered for a combined .335 BAA. His lone victory came in Philadelphia (for which he’s expressed hatred against them club when part of the Marlins pitching staff) for which six hits and an earned run was the end result. But that Apr. 29 victory feels like many moons ago.

Gearing to face Florida (38-38, +202) at 7:10 p.m. EDT, Olsen will at least look to take advantage of a Marlins’ club batting .256 versus lefties and bringing in a middle of the road, 349 runs. However, in the last week, Florida has seen a spike in offensive production. The ‘Fish swung for a .304 BA, manufacturing 32 RBIs (against both lefty and righty pitchers). Ending this matchup on a betting note, Olsen has been a ‘dog in every one of his eight starts in ’09. Prices have ranged from a low, plus-113 (bet $100 to make $113) against the Phillies at home to a high, plus-263 (bet $100 to make $263) against the Mets in Citi Field. The financial statement has Olsen tallying up a minus-234 money line deficit for those few backers out there.

Hot to Trot


We’ll wait to see what Tampa Bay (41-35, +98) does on Sunday but all indications show that this team is beginning to turn up the heat. The Rays will faceoff against division rival, Toronto (41-35, +372) at 7:07 p.m. EDT. But as hot as Tampa has been by taking six of its last eight, the Blue Jays will counter when it places shutdown starter, Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.53) on the hill. Three of the Rays last six victories have come against pitchers with a winning record. But as well as the offense has been playing (batting .292 in the last 10), credit goes to Tampa Bay’s bullpen for producing a 1.57 ERA in the last 10. The two busiest bullpen slingers, Lance Cormier and J.P. Howell, have combined for a 2.08 ERA 1.10 WHIP in a total of 40.5 innings. So if Rays’ starting pitcher, Jeff Niemann (6-4, 4.23) wants to help his club then he must eat up some innings before making way for the pen. It’s just that Tampa must combat Toronto’s 9-3 record in Halladay’s last 12 home starts versus the Rays.

Traveling Touch

It’s no secret why the Angels possess one of the best road records in the Majors. At 20-17 when making road reservations, Los Angeles (40-32, +897) finds itself ranking second best in the hitting department. Between Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu bringing in a combined, 71 RBIs, the Angels as a team are making contact for a .280 BA. That’s resulted in five straight road wins (seven runs per game) and an ‘over record at 9-5 in the last 14. Scoring 4.9 runs per game on offense and having the pitching staff log in a steep, 4.59 ERA (on the road) has books surprisingly installing totals at an average, 8.7 runs per game.

We’re hard pressed to find much stock for total wagering in this 8:05 p.m. EDT contest against the Rangers (. However with L.A. fielding Sean O’Sullivan on the slab (1-0, 3.00) and Texas preparing to etch its veteran slinger, Vincent Padilla (6-3, 4.48) in the starting rotation books have decided to open the contest at a hefty, 10 ½-runs.

Even though the stats indicate that L.A.’s pitching staff is logging in a 5.12 ERA on the year, the defense has actually been able to hold down the opposition to four runs per game in the same 10.

The ‘under’ is 22-6-1 in Texas’ last 29 home games, the ‘under’ is 42-17-1 in the Rangers last 60, but the ‘over’ has gone 7-3-1 in Padilla’s last 11 starts versus the Angels. In-fact Texas was murdering books just a week and a half ago, hitting the ‘under’ in 12 straight games (from Jun. 5 to Jun. 18). Since then the ‘under’ is a split, 4-4 in the last eight Rangers’ games.

Sportsbetting has placed Texas as a $1.35 home favorite.
 

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#1 Sports

Monday's Free Selection:

Tampa Ray Rays + 170
 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: MLB

LA Dodgers w/Wolf -120 Over Colorado
 

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Totals4U

Monday's Free Selection:

San Francisco/St. Louis over 7
 

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Monday:

Texas Rangers - 130
 

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Craig Trapp

Craig's Bonus Play is a late American League game!

Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics:

Detroit Tigers -130


Betting Trends


-Tigers are 4-0 in Porcellos last 4 starts.


-Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.


-Athletics are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.


-Athletics are 1-4 in Andersons last 5 home starts.


The Tigers are coming off an exciting late game heroic win which makes them 8-2. Oakland loses another game yesterday and now have 5 straight losses. DET has struggled on the road this year thus the lower money line than usual. Today they go to there stud young rookie Porcello. He has been great this year and Porcello is 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five outings this month. He has a big advantage of starter Anderson who is 3-7 with a plus 5.00 ERA. The losing streak of OAK has been brought on by a huge slump from an already poor offense. OAK has not scored over 3 runs in there losing streak. DET will win easy as Porcello will shut them down for at least 7 innings. At the plate DET will get there average at least 5 runs!!

SCORE DET 6 - OAK 2
 

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Robbie Gainous

Bonus Play

Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics

Detroit Tigers -130

It appeared the Al Central leading Tigers would get swept in their first series of their current nine-game road trip but a clutch homer by Brandon Inge put Detroit in the win column versus Houston on Sunday. Detroit will look to ride that momentum into a three-game set in Oakland with the first game set for Monday night. The Athletics have lost five straight and are a league-worst 5-13 W/L since June 9. The Tigers outscored the Athletics 34 to 9 during a three-game sweep in Detroit back in May but the Tigers have struggled here when facing the Athletics losing seven of their last eight trips to the bay area. Oakland will send Brett Anderson to the bump with his record of 3-7 W/L and an ERA of 5.74. He has only faced the Tigers once and that was back in May giving up nine runs and six hits in 3 1/3 innings of work in a 14 to 1 loss. The Tigers will send Rick Porcello to the hill with his record of 8-4 W/L and an ERA of 3.55. Porcello is 2-1 W/L with a 3.67 ERA in five starts this month and in his only appearance against the Athletics in May he threw for six innings allowing one run and three hits in a 9 to 1 win. We expect more of the same as the Tigers ride the momentum of Sundays win over Houston and Porcellos arm to a victory. The Athletics are 9-26 W/L (-17.2) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Detroit is 22-6 W/L (+14.2) after 6 consecutive games versus interleague opponents the last 3 seasons and 14-4 W/L (+9.4) against AL West opponents this season. Lay the chalk with the Tigers as they get the win on Monday night over the Athletics.

Graded Selection: 2* Detroit Tigers 6 Oakland Athletics 5
 

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Marc Lawrence

Today’s Free Pick

GAME: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 30, 2009 10:10PM

SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks

PICK: Colorado Rockies

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Colorado w/Jiminez vs Wolf

Note: The Rockies and Dodgers return to play in the senior circuit when Ubaldo Jiminez matches serves with Randy Wolf in Los Angeles tonight. Jiminez enters tonight game in solid current form with 3 wins and 1 loss in his last four starts with a 3.23 ERA. On the flip side, Wolf is in rocky form with a 6.66 ERA in his last five starts and favored (-130) to boot. With that, look for Wolf to drop to 6-15 on Mondays here tonight.

We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado with Jiminez versus Wolf.
 

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The Sports Investing Professional

Comp.

For today we actually are going to have 2 plays. First
we'll look to the Marlins. They have OWNED the Nats
this year and in some ways that concerns me because
it's tough to beat a team 7,8,9 in a row but Nolasco has
been so tough lately and the Marlins just seem to
light up the Nat's pitchers...I just cant resist. The second
play is the Chicago White Sox. It's really a a tale of two
teams. Cleveland has been getting beat by NL teams which
is criminal and combine that with the fact that Gavin Floyd
might be the A.L's hottest pitcher in his last 4-5 starts while
Pavano, after some early season success is fading back a bit.

Let's go 2-0 today!

MLB - FLORIDA MARLINS -170[LISTED]: OLSEN / NOLASCO] 850 / 500

MLB - CHICAGO WHITE SOX -EVEN[LISTED]: FLOYD / PAVANO] 500 / 500
 

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Dominic Fazzini


Today's Bonus Play


Gavin Floyd (5-5, 4.45 ERA) has been on a roll for the White Sox.

The right-hander has tossed seven consecutive quality starts, and is 3-1 with a 1.60 ERA over that span. One of those starts was June 6 against the Indians, who Floyd faces today, and he allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-2 victory.

Floyd also faced Cleveland on May 11, and allowed eight runs on 11 hits in five innings, but that was before he turned his season around.

As strong as Floyd has been lately, Cleveland starter Carl Pavano (6-6, 5.80) has been the complete opposite. The veteran right-hander had his best start of the season against Chicago on June 5, pitching a three-hitter in a 6-0 victory, but he has been awful since then.

In his last three starts, Pavano is 0-2 with a 12.15 ERA after winning six of his previous seven outings. He was battered by Pittsburgh for eight runs (three earned) and 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings Wednesday in his last start.

And Cleveland’s lineup is a little weaker now with the departure of Mark DeRosa, who was traded to St. Louis over the weekend. DeRosa was second on the Indians with 13 homers, 50 RBIs and 47 runs scored.

The Indians have lost 10 of its last 12 games, and now have to face a Chicago team that has hit better on the road than it has at home. That’s not a good combination for Cleveland with Pavano on the mound. Go with the White Sox.

(Based on a 1? to 5? scale)

5? CHICAGO WHITE SOX
 

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Strider's Tennis

Comp. Tennis is for MONDAY.

MEN:
Fernando Verdasco +125 *Top Play*
Tommy Haas -350
Andy Roddick -200
Radek Stepanek +300
Gilles Simon +120

WOMEN:
Amelie Mauresmo +165 *Top Play*
Virginie Razzano -170
Sabine Lisicki +180
Melanie Oudin +250


UPSET ALERT (0.25 Unit Plays):
Robin Soderling +1000
Elena Vesnina +330
 
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Monday, June 29

Hot Pitchers
-- Duke is 5-0, 2.50 in his last five home starts.
-- Marlins won last three Nolasco starts (2-0, 2.50).
-- Nieve is 3-0, 1.45 in his three starts for the Mets.
-- Lincecum is 3-1, 1.89 in his last four starts.
-- Oswalt is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Jimenez has 2.95 RA in his last five starts, but Colorado lost seven of his last eight road starts. Dodgers are 6-2 in Wolf's home starts.

-- Floyd is 3-1, 2.13 in his last seven starts, but White Sox lost his last five road outings.
-- Red Sox won last three Lester road starts (2-0, 2.37).
-- Halladay was 7-0, 2.31 in his last ten starts before going on the DL. Tampa Bay won eight of last nine Niemann starts, scoring 8+ runs in all eight wins; they're 0-4 in his starts if they score less than 7 runs.
-- O'Sullivan is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts for the Angels.
-- Blackburn is 4-1, 2.25 in his last eight starts.
-- Tigers won nine of last ten Porcello starts, winning last four.

Cold Pitchers
-- Harden is 0-3, 6.85 in his last four starts.
-- Olsen was 0-1, 10.05 in his last three starts before going on the DL.
-- Looper is 0-1, 7.18 in his last five starts.
-- Thompson is 2-2, 4.94 in five starts, all on the road.
-- Geer is 0-1, 6.72 in his last five starts.

-- Pavano is 0-2, 15.53 in his last three starts.
-- Berken is 0-1, 7.15 in his last five starts.
-- Padilla is 0-2, 4.70 in his last four starts.
-- Hochevar is 1-1, 6.06 in his three home starts.
-- Anderson is 0-2, 8.59 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates won six of their last eight home games.
-- Marlins won their last five home games.
-- Giants won six of their last nine games.
-- Astros won three of their last four road games.
-- Rockies won 20 of their last 23 games.

-- White Sox won six of their last eight games.
-- Tampa Bay won 13 of its last 17 games.
-- Orioles won four of their last five home games. Red Sox are 10-3 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Twins are 8-4 in their last twelve road games.
-- Angels won 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Tigers won seven of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Nationals lost five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers lost eight of their last twelve home games. Mets are 6-12 in their last 18 games- they scored three runs in last three games.
-- Cardinals are 6-9 in their last fifteen home games.
-- Padres lost ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last five games.

-- Indians lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Toronto is 6-10 in its last sixteen home games.
-- Royals lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Rangers are 5-8 in their last thirteen home games.
-- Oakland lost six of its last seven games.

Totals
-- Under is 8-4-1 in Cubs' last thirteen road games.
-- Five of last seven Washington games went over the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Houston road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-4 in Dodgers' last dozen home games.

-- Over is 3-1-1 in White sox' last five games.
-- Last three Boston games stayed under the total (4-1/1-0/1-2).
-- Seven of last nine Toronto home games went over the total.
-- 12 of last 13 Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Kansas City home games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven games at Oakland.
 
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Trend Report

7:05 PM
BOSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Boston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:05 PM
CHI CUBS vs. PITTSBURGH
Chi Cubs are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games
Chi Cubs are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

7:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
Chi White Sox are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

7:08 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TORONTO
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Toronto's last 20 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

7:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. FLORIDA
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Florida
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington

8:05 PM
LA ANGELS vs. TEXAS
LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Texas is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Angels
Texas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

8:05 PM
NY METS vs. MILWAUKEE
NY Mets are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 13 of NY Mets's last 16 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 13 games

8:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS CITY
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games

8:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Francisco is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco

10:05 PM
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 15 games on the road
Oakland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
Oakland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit

10:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 12 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of San Diego's last 22 games when playing Houston

10:10 PM
COLORADO vs. LA DODGERS
Colorado is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
Colorado is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
LA Dodgers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing Colorado
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-105, 8)

If there’s one thing the Cubs never want to see, it’s a southpaw on the mound.

Chicago is the one of the worst offensive teams against left-handers in the majors. The Cubbies are ranked 26th in batting average against lefties (.246 BA) and are last in the league in home runs (12) and runs scored (61) against them.

And guess who the Cubs face Monday? Pittsburgh left-hander Zach Duke.

The Duke of the Steel City has a career record of just 4-5 in 14 starts against Chicago, but has a fantastic 3.03 ERA. In his only appearance against them this season, Duke went seven innings and allowed only two runs. This game figures to have a premium on runs and should be close throughout.

Pick: Under 8


Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-127, 8)

The Dodgers don’t just play well against the Rockies – they own them.

Los Angeles has won eight of nine games against Colorado this season, outscoring them by a combined score of 74-43. The Dodgers also have excelled at winning the close matchups, claiming all four meetings decided by four runs or less.

The Dodgers still are without star slugger Manny Ramirez, but have maintained their winning ways by getting a balanced offensive effort from their entire lineup. The biggest standouts include Andre Ethier (.263 BA, 14 HR, 49 RBI), Casey Blake (.296, 11, 48) and James Loney (.280, 5, 49).

The Rockies also have struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard, yielding 26 runs the past four games. Look for the Dodgers to maintain their dominance over the Rockies.

Pick: Dodgers -127
 
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Bob Harvey


Los Angeles Angels (110)
Mon Jun 29 '09 8:05p

It seems to me the wrong team is favored in tonight’s AL West battle between the Angels and Rangers.

Anaheim is clicking on all cylinders right now. They swept the hapless Arizona Diamondbacks which in itself isn’t any great shakes. But the way the Halo’s did it, speaks volumes about how much this club has improved just over the last month. The Angels hit with runners in scoring position and hit for power. They were aggressive on the base paths and they played solid defense.

They got great starting pitching in two of the three games and closer Brian Fuentes was light’s out in his two appearances. Even the Anaheim defense which entered Sunday’s game with the worst bullpen ERA in baseball (5.51) stepped up big in the series finale. The Angels have now won five straight and seem to be playing their baseball of the season just in time for this week’s series against the second-place Rangers.

Texas swept Anaheim in May taking three games and beating Weaver, Lackey and Saunders in that order. However this isn’t the same Texas team. Without the injured Josh Hamilton the offense has struggled. Case in point the once mighty Rangers managed just one hit Sunday against Chad Gaudin of the Padres.

Texas is 3-7 in its last ten games and scored a total of 15 runs in those seven losses. The Angels are 7-3 over that same period in which they scored 12 runs on two different occasions and eleven runs in another

Tonight’s pitching matchup has Angel rookie Sean O’ Sullivan facing Vicente Padilla. O’ Sullivan is 1-0 with an ERA of 3.00 while the veteran Padilla is 6-3 including a 3-0 mark with a 2.16 ERA in his last three outings.

Consider as well that with interleague play in the rear view mirror, Vlad Guerrero returns to the Angel weapon giving them yet another weapon.
 
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Jim Feist

(919) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
(920) TEXAS RANGERS
Take "(919) LOS ANGELES ANGELS"

Angels and Rangers are separated by just 1/2 a game in the AL West after Sunday's action. Then Angels have won five straight games and seven of their last 10. The Rangers have lost two straight and lost seven of their last 10. Rookie Sean O'Sullivan starts for the Halos. The young righthander is just 1-0 in two starts this year with a 3.00 era. He's up against veteran Vincnet Padilla for the Rangers who is 6-3 on the year with a 4.48 era. Padilla has pitched well of late, going 2-0 with a 2.00 era in his last three starts, but has walked eight batters in 18 innings with just nine strikeouts. We can get the Angels as a little dog here on Monday and even though O'Sullivan is still unproven, the Halos are hot and riding a winning streak. Take the Angels as a nice little dog.
 
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Dave Cokin

(907) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
(908) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Take "(907) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS"

The Giants continue to be a major surprise in the NL West. The pitching has been solid, and that's clearly their primary strength. Of late, they're getting some timely hitting as well. Tonight it's their ace, Tim Lincecum, on the mound as they open a set with the Cardinals. Brad Thompson has done serviceable work for the Redbirds, but he'll be hard pressed to match Lincecum, who's on a roll. Not much value in the number as Lincecum is a big public pitcher, but I still lean the Giants way tonight.
 

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