Drew Gordon
Milwaukee +105 at CLEVELAND
Now on a 15-4 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Cubs over the Twins 3-2 Sunday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Milwaukee/Cleveland match-up.
I freely admit the Brewers have not been playing well of late, but let's not get too carried away, 4 of their last 6 losses have been by just 1 run, and their 3.89 team ERA over their L10 games is still better than Cleveland's over the same span (4.04). Not only that, but tonight's pitching match up is not nearly as lopsided as some are making it out to be. Read on...
True, Carl Pavano had a nice 4-start run going, where he was on-point from mid-May to early-June. But his last start is a quick reminder of why he simply cannot be trusted, getting rocked for 9 runs on 11 hits over just 4 2/3 innings against the Royals (at home no less)! Some of you are calling for a bounce back effort here, but I'm not convinced. Pavano is 2-2 with an ugly 6.53 ERA at Progressive Field, and the Brewers are absolutely desperate for a win... But that's only one piece of the puzzle.
On the flip side, Dave Bush has been up and down this season, but overall there's two things you've got like in this match up: A. He's been effective on the road, going 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA. And B. More importantly, he's been solid vs. the Indians in the past, going 0-1, but with a 3.00 ERA in 3 career starts.
Finally, there's all this talk about the Brewers sputtering offense lately, but fact is, the Indians have not been any better. Both teams are batting about .232 over their last 10 games, and let's not forget the Tribe is batting .243 against righties at home, averaging just 4.0 runs in the process. In the end, do not make the mistake of discounting the Brew Crew in this spot, as they are not only desperate for a win, but also have a more favorable pitching match up than most are giving them credit for.
Take Milwaukee behind Bush over Cleveland and Pavano in this MLB match up.
1♦ MILWAUKEE