MNF my ratings vs vegas line

[w365]

first of all, this is going to be a small play, using less than 1 unit...

this line and this total are strange for several reasons. first of all, my ratings have pittsburgh ranked 9 places better and home teams ranked 5-14 places better are 2-8 ats since week 2 when favored 3-6.5 points. most of the teams in that group are favored by 1-3.5 or 6.5-7 points. these teams are rarely favored by 4-6 and there was only one favored by 5 and it was denver vs no and they did not cover.

second, this total is not carracteristic for pittsburgh this season. even after going 2-1 to the under, it is stil uncaracteristic for a team that had 3 totals in the low to mid 40's to start the season to have a total in low 30's in week 4. theis total is much more caracteristic for the ravens and it tells us that the linemakers are taking this baltimore d for real.

third, in week 1, pittsb was favored by 6.5 against houston, the same houston team that was favred by 4.5 against baltimore in week 2 (and was expected by many to destro them) and now, pittsburgh is favored by only 5 against that same baltimore team that was expected to be worst than houston. also, pittsburgh was a 6 pts fave on the road against cleveland and that same cleveland was at pk on the road against baltimore, and now pittsburgh is laying only 5 at home vs that same baltimore team that was expected to be worst than cleveland. the public doesn't see anything wrong with that as they are pounding pittsburgh with 58% of bets right now.

finally, pittsburgh at home is usually either a small fave/dog vs elite teams or a 6.5+ pts favorite against lesser teams, and they are not favored by less than 6 all that often. anyways in their last 11 when they were dogs or 6-favs at home they are 2-9 ats and with that line regardless the venue they are 4-13 ats in last 17. baltimore is doing very bad on the road lately but they were not assiciated with such a line on the road in a long time. last season they were small favorites on the road early in the season and once the linemakers realized how bad they were, they tagged them with big underdog lines whenever on the road. this +5 line is really strange for a team that was bad last year and expected to be even worst this season.

pittsburgh has a fragile qb, underachieving offensive line, struggling running game and they face a defense that leads the league in points, yards, passing yards, third down %, defensive qb rating. i don't care who they played in first two games as these defensive numbers are impressive against anyone at this level. its not like they faced high school offenses in first two weeks. cleveland scored 17 pts in one qtr today so that shows you that these are professionals and no one in this league can be taken lightly.

baltimore has the confidence and the excitement around them right now and they will not be scared tomorrow night. pittsburgh has a lot of ? all around and two bad games behind them that are probably hurting their confidence right now.

baltimore also has 3 exciting guys at the rb position and they were impressive in first two games running for 380 yards. flacco is not spectacular and is mistake prone but don't expect baltimore to ask too much from him in his first road start.

small play: baltimore +5

 

[CRVTEC]

very good points. This game does seem fishy.

 

[w365]

it's monday night football, and totals are usually inflated a few points in these games. you'd think this one would be inflated at least a couple of points with several straight night games (snf and mnf) being high scoring affaires, but it is just not happening here. the game could go over the total, it is not out of question, but both the line and the total suggest that it will not.

but lets focus on the ats winner.

system: in last 19 mnf games with the total anywhere in between 34 and 37.5 (extremely low totals) and the home team favored from -3 to -6.5 points, the dog is 18-0-1 ats if the average vegas total for the home fave is at least 37.5. these dogs have been winning outright as well, going 16-4 su.

historically, home faves of -5 are among the worst home faves against the spread, with -4.5 and -6.5 faves being just as bad if not worst.

these same home faves of 5 pts are particularly ineffective when ranked slightly better than the road team, but also when having not more than 1 more win than the opponnet.

many people say how ben and the steelers will use the passing game effectively tonight against the ravens, but that doesn't look very realistic to me. ben's qb rating went from 147 in week 1 to, 113 in week 2 and to 50 in week 3. Baltimore defense allowed a 22.9 qb rating to cleveland's anderson and a 35.3 rating to cincy's palmer.

 

[CaptFlippy]

You bring good stuff to this forum, thanks! The Capt.

 

[w365]

I believe that is very safe to assume that the ravens will use their running game as much as possible tonight with their starting qb playing his hirst road game in the nfl. and if they rushed 44 and 46 times in first two games, we can expect more than 30 rushes from them tonight, if not a lot more. why more than 30 ? because that seems to be the magic number for pittsburgh in recent years. when the opponents rushed 31+ times against pittsburgh in last 11 games (3+ years), the steelers are 0-11 su and ats. and that happened 4 times against these same ravens during that period of time. actually, they are 0-8 against baltimore when the ravens rush at least 30 times against them. even when the opponent has less than 100 yards of passing, the steelers are unable to win or cover if that same opponent is rushing 30+ times on them. the scariest trend of them all here is that even when the opponent turns the ball over two times or more, the steelers are only 3-15 against that opponent if it rushes 30+ times.

the key for baltimore: keep on running.

 

[eriffic]

hey w365, dont you think under 33 is really low? what are your predictions?

 

[w365]

if i had to play a total it would be the under. 19-13 baltimore. but i dont see a whole ot of value with such a # prediction.

 

[walnut5225]

thanks w365 --- i look for your posts every time i log into this forum --- it's quality work.

 

[eaglezzz]

Very good points you bring up. The thing is I can't seem to bet Baltimore. Aweful QB to start with and with Pittsburgh playing at home and coming off a huge embarrassing offensive performance against the Eagles last week I think the rebound with a big win tonight. Ravens yes have a great defense but I still think the Steelers put up points tonight. The are going to have a better offensive game plan than last week that is for sure. Look for Big Ben to come out slinging. I have the Steelers running away with this one 24-10.

Flacco at QB wasn't he in the movie The Replacements........oh that was Keena Reeves.

 

[bmore]

first of all, this is going to be a small play, using less than 1 unit...

this line and this total are strange for several reasons. first of all, my ratings have pittsburgh ranked 9 places better and home teams ranked 5-14 places better are 2-8 ats since week 2 when favored 3-6.5 points. most of the teams in that group are favored by 1-3.5 or 6.5-7 points. these teams are rarely favored by 4-6 and there was only one favored by 5 and it was denver vs no and they did not cover.

second, this total is not carracteristic for pittsburgh this season. even after going 2-1 to the under, it is stil uncaracteristic for a team that had 3 totals in the low to mid 40's to start the season to have a total in low 30's in week 4. theis total is much more caracteristic for the ravens and it tells us that the linemakers are taking this baltimore d for real.

third, in week 1, pittsb was favored by 6.5 against houston, the same houston team that was favred by 4.5 against baltimore in week 2 (and was expected by many to destro them) and now, pittsburgh is favored by only 5 against that same baltimore team that was expected to be worst than houston. also, pittsburgh was a 6 pts fave on the road against cleveland and that same cleveland was at pk on the road against baltimore, and now pittsburgh is laying only 5 at home vs that same baltimore team that was expected to be worst than cleveland. the public doesn't see anything wrong with that as they are pounding pittsburgh with 58% of bets right now.

finally, pittsburgh at home is usually either a small fave/dog vs elite teams or a 6.5+ pts favorite against lesser teams, and they are not favored by less than 6 all that often. anyways in their last 11 when they were dogs or 6-favs at home they are 2-9 ats and with that line regardless the venue they are 4-13 ats in last 17. baltimore is doing very bad on the road lately but they were not assiciated with such a line on the road in a long time. last season they were small favorites on the road early in the season and once the linemakers realized how bad they were, they tagged them with big underdog lines whenever on the road. this +5 line is really strange for a team that was bad last year and expected to be even worst this season.

pittsburgh has a fragile qb, underachieving offensive line, struggling running game and they face a defense that leads the league in points, yards, passing yards, third down %, defensive qb rating. i don't care who they played in first two games as these defensive numbers are impressive against anyone at this level. its not like they faced high school offenses in first two weeks. cleveland scored 17 pts in one qtr today so that shows you that these are professionals and no one in this league can be taken lightly.

baltimore has the confidence and the excitement around them right now and they will not be scared tomorrow night. pittsburgh has a lot of ? all around and two bad games behind them that are probably hurting their confidence right now.

baltimore also has 3 exciting guys at the rb position and they were impressive in first two games running for 380 yards. flacco is not spectacular and is mistake prone but don't expect baltimore to ask too much from him in his first road start.

small play: baltimore +5

respect your opinion and like your contributions but your looking at this waaaayy wrong IMO.

First off this raven team is NOTHING like it was last year. the ravens had injuries all over the place last year so they were a shell of themselves so comaparing this team to last years team is stupid.

also your whole argument of pitt was favored by 6.5 over hou and hou was favored by 4.5 over balt so why is pitt only a 5 pt fav makes absolutely no sense at all. you do understand lines are made with the idea to get even bets on both sides so public perception ways HEAVILY in what the line is...plus they opened it at 7 and everyone bet that shit down to 5 quick. pitt just looked like dog crap against philly and philly losing last night will probably only drive this line down more IMO. meanwhile balt has smashed cinn and clev and everyone has seen how great this defense has looked so far this year

pitt is giving up 2.8 yards per rush and at home they never allow teams to run especially a team like Balt where that is the only thing they can do. samrai rolle and landry are out and fabian washington might not play so Balt is really thin in the secondary. pitt will max protect and focus on the offensive line problems. typically in the NFL when a certain part of a team gets embarrased (i.e. pitt's o-line giving up 9 sacks last week) they will right the ship and correct those errors and really focus on that. pitt knows if they can protect Ben even somewhat decent tonight they will win. my only concern is the rookie mendenhall in pass pro but he might not play as much as you might think as you will see alot of mewelde moore tonight and you might see alot of 3 or 4 WR's as well.

if you watched any of the cinn/clev game yesterday you would see that they might be the 2 worst teams in football. that was the worst game i have seen in the NFl this year...it was truly pathetic. i'll take pitt at home off a loss laying a short number against a rookie QB making his first road start playing for a slighly overvalued/overrated team due to 2 home wins against 2 horrible football teams

 

[RDTrains]

w365

Anything in your database re short home faves the following week after giving up 9 (or +5 or more) sacks?

Thanks for all the work you do, I have a Balt lean tonight myself.

 

[w365]

Baltimore +5 is a winner.

So, first week of my ratings vs line approach 10-5 (6-3 cfb, 4-2 nfl)

All small faves less than 3 and small dogs 8 or less are 15-5-1 ATS

 

[beerformyhorses]

great stuff. love all the info and insught u bring. keep up the good work.:aktion033

 

[Jetplane]

Baltimore +5 is a winner.

So, first week of my ratings vs line approach 10-5 (6-3 cfb, 4-2 nfl)

All small faves less than 3 and small dogs 8 or less are 15-5-1 ATS

Wait a sec... dogs 8 or less... wouldn't that mean they were also dogs of 3 or less than too??? i just need clarification if its 3-8 or 0-8 dogs. Good hit by the way!

 

[w365]

Wait a sec... dogs 8 or less... wouldn't that mean they were also dogs of 3 or less than too??? i just need clarification if its 3-8 or 0-8 dogs. Good hit by the way!

any play or lean in the -2.5/+8 range

last 4 seasons my best record is on the plays in the -2.5/+7 range but so far after 1 week of this system it is 15-5-1 ats in the -2.5/+8 range

 

[w365]

great stuff. love all the info and insught u bring. keep up the good work.:aktion033

glad i could help :toast:

 

[walnut5225]

very good --- thank you!