NFL spreads are influenced by recent performance, and the Titans are likely being undervalued by the public following their 38-10 loss to the Colts last week.
Since 2003, teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points have actually 415-348-17 (54%) against the spread, per Bet Labs data.
If their next game is on the road, these teams have gone 187-147-6 (56%) ATS because home-field advantage is often overvalued.
Since 2003, teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points have actually 415-348-17 (54%) against the spread, per Bet Labs data.
If their next game is on the road, these teams have gone 187-147-6 (56%) ATS because home-field advantage is often overvalued.
An added bonus for Titans backers: Craig Wrolstad is the lead ref. Since 2003, home teams have gone 29-40 (42%) against the spread (ATS) with Wrolstad as the head official.
The Titans are also in a profitable historical spot. They’re divisional dogs on the road with a low total. Since 2003, divisional road dogs getting 35% or less of bets in games with a total of 44 or below have gone 99-67 ATS (59.6%).
Tennessee also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Road Streaks with Line Moves (91-50 ATS, 64.5%) since 2003.
The Titans are also in a profitable historical spot. They’re divisional dogs on the road with a low total. Since 2003, divisional road dogs getting 35% or less of bets in games with a total of 44 or below have gone 99-67 ATS (59.6%).
Tennessee also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Road Streaks with Line Moves (91-50 ATS, 64.5%) since 2003.
Insights from Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks, and John Sheeran, risk manager for FanDuel Sportsbook at the Meadowlands in New Jersey.
MGM books, including Stoneback’s home base at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, don’t really have a way around losing tonight, based on how the action is spread out.
“We are a four-way loser on this game,” Stoneback said. “Not a big loser at all. It’s mostly because of live parlays on the favorite. If you took the parlays out, we’d need the Texans.
“The sharps are on the ‘dog, and the line has gone from six down to four. We have five times more pointspread money on the Titans, but three times more pointspread tickets on the Texans. But again, all the parlays from the pubic are on the favorite.”
Stoneback said the best-case scenario – the smallest loss – would be for the Under to hit, regardless of who wins or covers. MGM books opened the total at 41 and jumped to 43 by Monday afternoon.I
FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Texans a tick higher at -6.5 and was also down to -4 Monday afternoon.
“Some initial sharp action on the Titans moved the line down, but now at -4, the vast majority of the interest is for Houston,” Sheeran said. “The Texans are now 80% of the book. And the total is at 42.5, up from 41. Per usual, we will want the Under.”
MGM books, including Stoneback’s home base at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, don’t really have a way around losing tonight, based on how the action is spread out.
“We are a four-way loser on this game,” Stoneback said. “Not a big loser at all. It’s mostly because of live parlays on the favorite. If you took the parlays out, we’d need the Texans.
“The sharps are on the ‘dog, and the line has gone from six down to four. We have five times more pointspread money on the Titans, but three times more pointspread tickets on the Texans. But again, all the parlays from the pubic are on the favorite.”
Stoneback said the best-case scenario – the smallest loss – would be for the Under to hit, regardless of who wins or covers. MGM books opened the total at 41 and jumped to 43 by Monday afternoon.I
FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Texans a tick higher at -6.5 and was also down to -4 Monday afternoon.
“Some initial sharp action on the Titans moved the line down, but now at -4, the vast majority of the interest is for Houston,” Sheeran said. “The Texans are now 80% of the book. And the total is at 42.5, up from 41. Per usual, we will want the Under.”
LV SuperBook ...
“There’s no money on this game. It’s kind of funny what a difference it is from last Monday night"
“We need the Titans right now, just because there’s a lot of parlay liability to the Texans from all those favorites that covered on (Thanksgiving) and a bunch a of big favorites that covered (Sunday).”
“There’s no money on this game. It’s kind of funny what a difference it is from last Monday night"
“We need the Titans right now, just because there’s a lot of parlay liability to the Texans from all those favorites that covered on (Thanksgiving) and a bunch a of big favorites that covered (Sunday).”
