All Games are unitized between 1-5 Units. I release Five Unit plays approximately 5-8% of my total plays all year. Or you could say one 5 Unit play for every 105th plays (last 5 Unit game was Saturday October 10th Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, W 24-22).
Monday Night NFL: (8-4 + 14.18 Units)
Sunday Night NFL: (4-1 + 5.29 Units)
NFL Overall: (46-29 + 42.60 Units)
Can 61% of the Public be wrong? According to SI’s numbers 61% of the people tomorrow are going to lose their money that are playing the total and here is why. This game is a game that favors the UNDER to the extreme. Neither the Jets nor the Falcons want nor possess that talent to throw the football. Mike Vick continues in by my estimation to be the most over hyped over valued QB in the NFL. I know he has a great winning % and I fully understand that his team loves him and they play hard for him, but the simple truth is that he is not a QB you have to worry about beating you consistently from the pocket so they have to rely on the ground game, luckily they have the best. Vick and Dunn will be doing the running with TJ Ducket OUT for tonight’s game, and that is bad news for the Falcons because Ducket is one of the finest short yardage backs in the league while his replacement will be their fullback Justin Griffith – hardly an equal trade off. Vick will be a bit leery of running too much with his Knee being banged up so I expect the Falcons test the Jets secondary some (especially with Ty Law likely OUT) and that should result in a turnover or two.
The Jets come into this game fresh off a 150+ yard day from Curtis Martin on the road in Buffalo….but that is vs the Bills the worst run defense in football, so take that with a grain of salt. Also the Jets are only averaging 80 yards per game on the ground hardly anything to boast about. The Falcons meanwhile average more rushing yards then passing yards, by 41 yards at that …that has to be some kind of record! When you are leading the NFL in yards per attempt why pass?? 5.5 is the yardage per run and when you throw in the fact that in the Georgia dome they are averaging 200 per contest…this game becomes no contest.
The Jets now have to deal with the loss of Kevin Mawae their perennial All Pro Center who had started 170 straight games, an incredible feat for in interior linemen. The Loss of Mawae will be crippling for the Jets without question. Its not like he was just an average center, this guy was considered by almost everyone the best in the business and that opinion has been held for at least the last 8 or so years. Think about some key losses at Center these last few years and their impact. When Oakland played Tampa in the Super Bowl the coach at the time Bill Callahan said that Barrett Robbins going awol was “absolutely crushing” and it showed as Gannon was crushed. This year the Vikings lose NFC Pro Bowler Matt Birk who they have said was “maybe more valuable or as valuable as Randy Moss” and look at what the Vikings have done in front of Culpepper. The Center is the “eyes” of the offensive line, he’s their leader, he is in charge of blocking audiles and is the confidant to the quarterback; a good center is hard to find so a great center lost is irreplaceable. First game after such a key loss is always a tough one, even with the Falcons hemorrhaging rushing yards this will no doubt be too hard on the Jets and their fragile offense.
As far as the Falcons getting killed on the ground, it’s absolutely alarming. On the year the Falcons are giving up the 3rd worst Run defense with 4.9 yards per rush, a staggering amount for a team in 1st place. Those two teams that are worse…Houston and Buffalo are a combined 3-10 so far this year. Before you go buy a Jets +7.5 ticket…listen to this. Out of the 6 games this year 3 on the road and 3 at home the Falcons are allowing only 85 on them at home compared to 166 on the road, which is DOUBLE! Now to make things even more obscene, The Jets have the SAME EXACT PROBLEM! The Jets are allowing 163 on the road and only 78 at home, these two trends are flat out ridiculous. Tonights game is of course back at home where last time the ATL was torched by the Patriots for 300+ yards, but with Vinny in town …42 year old Vinny that is with his sub 50 QB rating and his 0 TDs and 3 Interceptions, the Jets passing threat is severely less of a threat. This will give them all the more time this week to work on that run defense.
The bottom line is this – The ATL was not prepared to stop the Saints run game last week that went for over 200 because they lost McAllister just the week before, so that isn’t that telling IMO. The Jets come into this game so banged up and so one dimensional they warrant the 7.5 points they are getting, theoretically this game should be not close and much like Atlanta’s win at home vs the Vikings a few weeks back 30-10. The Jets are very poor on the road but their defense wont allow them to be embarrassed on National television, John Vilma is a great young MLB and without Ducket will be able to hamper the ATL run game somewhat, so expect a grinder tonight. Both teams will be hesitant to put the ball in the air because they are no good at it and also because they are such good ground teams, this is a great UNDER play. I have a little system for totals that helped me with this game…it says 36.5…lets see how it does!
438 Atlanta / Jets UNDER 41 -107 (4.5 Units)
