Previews were written some time ago, so there will be some wierd time references. Also, there are things that contradict each other (strong defense and later weak defense), look at details and splits (total can be good, road can be awfull etc). I will modify them as season goes on, this is just a basis and preseason preparation to work on as season goes on.
LA Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake
LA Galaxy Preview
Top team like that won't have a bunch of problems, so their “quiet” offseason is not surprising. Let's take a look at what stats tell about them:
Offence: Top3 offence rating wise, and there's not much separating them from other two teams. A very balanced in distribution too, they enjoyed their success and both open play and set piece goals (16 goals;top 5 in the league). They scored goals inside and outside the box (8 goals; top 4 in the league). They had the most shots inside the box, but didn't have the best accuracy on those. The 3 areas they were average in league are accuracy of shots + conversion of shot on goal passes and goals assisted. All three of those are connected by same thing. They can finish their chances better. There are no problems with creating chances, there is no lack of goals, but when it comes to converting passes from your teammates, Galaxy players weren't among best in the league. But they compensated it with stellar individual talent and great balance.
Possible weakness = Finishing (possibly solved by transfers)
As for chance creation:
Possession: This is where LA was the best team. Especially when you consider the way they play, and adjust their ratings. They were in top3 in total passes, successful passes, and accuracy. Top5 in possession time (but again, it's good for their style of play). Where they really shined was chance creation. They had the most passes leading to shot on goal, and if they were better/luckier with their finishing, they would have most assists. But you combine all those and you have one of the best offensive teams in the league, which created the most opportunities for themselves. Being able to play in variety of ways leaves no worries about Galaxy in these two categories.
Key Strength = Chance Creation
Defense: Here's the interesting part. When you look at their rating, it doesn't strike you as bad (they're 6th), but when you dig dipper all kinds of bad things pop up. But before that, it's time to remember, that they changed their defense during the season. In particular they changed GK from Cudicini to Penedo. This improved them, because Penedo made more as a “defender” in 11 games, than Cudicini did in 21. And Cudicini was only better in all things, that u can let your GK be bad, like throws and kicks. Penedo is worse at that, and not as dominant in the air, but he is much more efficient in diving saves, and he's much safer option and not letting random goals in. Cudicini got no errors to his name, but there were some dumb moves from him that lead to goals, and he allowed the discouraging ones. So by all means that was upgrade in my eyes. As for other positives, this team was much disciplined (fewest total yellow cards; by far fewest yellow cards for tackles) and they were top5 in defensive errors. Those lead to goal in 40+% cases, so the fewer you make, the better. Although, the yellow card total can be tricky, and have negative effect. The problem with LA defence was that it was too passive. They didn't get cards for their tackles, but they didn't win the ball either. Only couple of teams was worse than them. They also were at the very bottom with interceptions and blocked shots. The system can be to blame, but it's clear, that they're too passive and don't take chances. You take a look at SKC, who is the team to look at when we talk about defense. They also struggle with some defensive categories, and not much better in blocked shots. But they got 794 to 581 advantage in interceptions, they go after the ball and try to read passes and passing lanes. Besides Colorado nobody is that bad in both (but Rapids shine in duels won and other categories), and only very bad teams are as bad in interceptions. So this is their problem, but main one is this:
Key weakness = Road defence
Only Seattle has more of a drop, between home and road defense rating wise. But when you find yourself in company of DC, San Jose and Toronto, it’s too much to overcome, even for one of the best road attacking teams. This is ongoing story for them, and they regressed last year. They were insanely good at home, but when they hit the road the team completely changed. Perhaps their passive effort is to blame here, because you need those duels and interceptions when you play in away game. Home team is always more aggressive, more poised to go and get the goal. They allowed 28 of 32 goals inside the area and 10 of 11 headed in away games. Bottom 3 in duels won. Absolute worst in shots blocked. 6 of 7 errors happened in away games. 2 of 3 cards for arguing and 22/36 yellow cards. Just not enough commitment and desire from this team to play in hostile environment.
Transfers: http://www.lagalaxy.com/news/2014/02/experience-additions-key-la-galaxy-they-hope-recapture-mls-cup .
Among those who left club, most players are midfielders. None of them played key role in their offence in both goal scoring and playmaking. So main pieces are still with team, while these players absence won't be a big hit to a team, plus it might have been a problem, with so many players in rotation. So new players is the key here, and let's see what they bring to the club:
-Baggio Husidic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y0UsU5NN9Q
All around guy for midfield, with so many midfielders gone he can add some depth and be a useful veteran and link between defense and attacking players (something LA can use, since they got too much clearances of the ball, instead of being able to play it out)
-Samuel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKE-1u0fJBM
That's the key one, with question marks in finishing, they can use a player like that. It also gives them another dimension, since he's strong and tall forward. They were in the middle of the pack in headers, so this can move them to the top of the league. This looks like a very nice move, and exactly what they needed to cover their possible weakness and become even better on offense.
-Rob Friend
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdfDHSATkM0 .
Pure target striker, another step to improve their offence and add some air presence. I may be wrong on this one, but he will be situational starter, since he doesn't fit others that well. But it's a smart move from a team, like some others trying to "steal" scheme of success and add players who can score from set pieces and headers. This was a recipe for success for teams like RSL and SKC, and now the gap between Galaxy and them in this category is gone.
-Stefan Ishizaki
Winger and chance maker, will create crosses for previous two.
-Two homegrown players.
So, no real improvements on defense, but their moves were great and on point for their already strong offense. They can only hope that full season of Penedo and improvement from guys they already have can help them, but its systemic flaw, and probably won't be solved on it's own.
Preseason: 5-1-1 record so far.
Conclusion: Overs on the road, and fading them in away games should be the long term strategy. It's possible their offence can be insanely good, but their defense wasn't addressed and should have the same problems as they did before.
RSL Preview
Runner-ups and another “no action” offseason.
Offence: 2nd best offence rating wise, 2nd best in set piece goals and tied for 1st in inside the box goals. They were very good with their quality, and they had 2nd best accuracy on their shots. Quality, quantity and balance. If you have to pick one, this will be your choice. No real weak spots, converted what they had.
Defense: Mediocre at this side, team was juts 11th. Protecting their own box was the big problem for them. 38 goals inside the box, and they weren't particularly good in duels. Headers were their main problem, where they were tied for bottom 3 (only Chivas was worse). As a direct result, they had 11 headers scored against them.
Key weakness = Defense on 2nd floor
And this can be even bigger problem this season. With so many teams reconstructing their rosters to have aerial presence, and some teams already counting on their set piece production, this weakness can be exposed in almost every game. Seattle and LA just added to already crowded group of teams with everything ready for set piece threat roster wise. All other playoff teams in their conference going to be extremely dangerous, and that's not a good sign for RSL defense.
Possession: Bread and butter, 2nd in rating and first in time of possession. Best accuracy in the league and a shortest average distance of pass. That resulted in by far the most passes both successful and total. They were sixth in shots on goal created, but it may be the result of better shot selection, and it paid off in terms of quality.
Their system allowed them to have some major advantages, and be competitive on the road, without enormous drops in quality:
Key strength = No decrease on defense in away games
Key strength = Road offense
Interesting case, cause possession suffered on the road. But not settling for number 2 paid off. And their road game was right at top, with one of the best differences. Points are not correlated well with it, so SKC earned more, and Portland much less, but really those 3 teams were the kind of guest you don't want at your field. Away offence was fueled by quality (or luck). They relied on outside shots, but where SKC quality failed them, RSL was able to convert those opportunities. 50% accuracy is insane in those conditions, but they passed their way into good shots. Beckerman, Morales, Plata were main contributors, but they were very efficient as a team, and it clearly shows that they had a much more efficient style of offence than SKC in away games. As for defense, they just weren't shy on the road, winning even more duels than at home. Same story with interceptions and pretty much everything else. They were fired up on the road, and it resulted in good performance. They had to deal with more, and allowed more goals obviously, but they had focus and desire to play as hard as at home, and it paid off for them.
Conclusion: That’s the team you want to bet on the road against weaker teams. All their losses came versus team with good in the air (Dallas, Colorado), or versus dominant in possession home teams (LA, NYRB, Montreal, Seattle). There will be more of those teams this season, and their schedule and conference won’t be easy. But when they are versus good matchup, and their weaknesses won’t be exposed, this is the team you want to bet.
Game Preview
With headers being weakness for RSL, and LA improvement on this front, you can expect some extra goals. Plus both teams are capable of scoring in many different ways. Both create a lot of chances and have quality finishers. LA can be very good at home and dominate weaker clubs, but RSL is the rare team you can expect fighting back and not trying to end a game with 0-0 draw. Just like last year they will play open football, and score a lot of goals in most cases.
Over 2.5 @ 2.07 Sbobet
game at 5pm est
