MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 40-29-3 ATS (+293.00 Units)
Not much else can be said about my regular season. I kicked ass, I finished with my most units total ever for one regular season and I pretty much hit all my big plays which played a big part in the big time cash flow. I cannot believe how much different my capping success was in the pros this season compared to college football. There is no explanation for it, nor will there ever be. I used to be equal with both but have done much better in the NFL the last two or three seasons (going 10-1 ATS in the 2006 playoffs). I won some money in 10 of the 12 weeks I bet on this season which is quite incredible if you ended up tailing me unit for unit. Now the question is can I sustain this success and do well throughout the upcoming playoff season. I am already a fan of some of these lines but I am on the border with some of the other games and will do what I can to help out.
The goal for the playoffs is to hit 70% of my plays or hit the 50 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
Week 13: 6-3 ATS (+28.00 Units)
Week 14: 3-2 ATS (+13.50 Units)
Week 15: 3-2-1 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Week 16: 5-4 ATS (+24.50 Units)
Week 17: ---No Plays---
Wildcard: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Not much else can be said about my regular season. I kicked ass, I finished with my most units total ever for one regular season and I pretty much hit all my big plays which played a big part in the big time cash flow. I cannot believe how much different my capping success was in the pros this season compared to college football. There is no explanation for it, nor will there ever be. I used to be equal with both but have done much better in the NFL the last two or three seasons (going 10-1 ATS in the 2006 playoffs). I won some money in 10 of the 12 weeks I bet on this season which is quite incredible if you ended up tailing me unit for unit. Now the question is can I sustain this success and do well throughout the upcoming playoff season. I am already a fan of some of these lines but I am on the border with some of the other games and will do what I can to help out.
The goal for the playoffs is to hit 70% of my plays or hit the 50 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
Week 13: 6-3 ATS (+28.00 Units)
Week 14: 3-2 ATS (+13.50 Units)
Week 15: 3-2-1 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Week 16: 5-4 ATS (+24.50 Units)
Week 17: ---No Plays---
Wildcard: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Saturday, January 3
NFC WILDCARD #1
View attachment 6177
View attachment 6176 Atlanta Falcons -1 (25 Units) View attachment 6175
***PLAY OF THE DAY***
NFC WILDCARD #1
View attachment 6177
View attachment 6176 Atlanta Falcons -1 (25 Units) View attachment 6175
***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The Atlanta Falcons pretty much came out of nowhere this season and after all they have been through the last couple of seasons with a) the Michael Vick disaster and b) the Bobby Petrino disaster, I really doubt anyone picked this team to make the playoffs this season. If you did, then good for you but with a rookie QB, a very shaky defense and a brand new head coach, this was almost impossible to predict. Nonetheless the Falcons are here and they are here to win. Atlanta was not all that impressive away from home this season going 4-4 SU (they also went 4-4 ATS) in those away games with most of them being played outdoors but this is a bit different as they get to play indoors in the confines of this gorgeous stadium and this should feel a little bit more like home for these guys. The Falcons opened their road season with a 23 point loss in Tampa Bay but you have to forgive them for that with a rookie QB versus a Kiffin led defense in his road debut. Then came another 23 point loss this time in Carolina. Atlanta did however turn things around Week 5 with a nice win at Lambeau Field over Green Bay but they were right back at it a week later with a loss in Philadelphia. Atlanta did win 3 of their last 4 road games this season beating Oakland, San Diego and Minnesota (two of three made the playoffs). So you go from a team with absolutely nothing to a team with a QB star of the future in Matt Ryan, a runner up in the MVP race Michael Turner and a head coach already making headlines everywhere around the league. Nice turnaround I would say. Atlanta comes into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 337.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.8 yards per play which is not bad. The Arizona defense has been horrendous for the most part of this season and I just don't see how that is going to change here. They have allowed a whopping 34.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have also allowed 413.3 total yards of offense per game and have allowed opponents to average 5.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Michael Turner is coming off an MVP nomination worthy performance and in the last three games he has led the team to 178.7 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.0 yards per carry which is going to be the difference in this game. I say that because Arizona has been horrendous at stopping the run, they have not improved overnight and they have allowed 169.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.5 yards per carry in those games and Turner is going to walk all over this defense. The passing game has struggle for Atlanta but with so much running room, expect that to change in this game. In the air, QB Matt Ryan has fallen off a bit the last three games as he has completed only 55.7% of his passes but those passes have gone for 7.0 yards per pass attempt and Ryan has shown time and time again this season that he is very capable of running an offense full of big plays and come from behind wins. His QB Rating has been only 63.1 in his last three games compared to 87.7 for the season so the only way to go is up and I think he can shine in his first career playoff game against an Arizona secondary that has allowed their last three opponents to complete 57.1% of their passes in the last three games for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The problem with Arizona is that their DB's don't have the speed to lockdown quick receivers and deep ball threats and the Falcons have two of the most underrated deep threats in the NFL in WR's Michael Jenkins and Roddy White. WR Harry Douglas is a bit more for the shorter passes but Ryan certainly has options and he will have deep options against this defense. Ryan has been sacked only 4 times in his last three games but he has thrown 4 interceptions and has shown some signs of wear. That's not a problem however because the Arizona defense has only 5 sacks in their last three games, they don't bring all that much pressure to begin with and they have come up with only 2 interceptions in their last three games. The last three QB's Arizona has faced have an average QB Rating of 102.6 in those games so no matter how much Ryan has struggled a bit over the last month or so, this defense should allow him to get back on track and give him a win in his first playoff game ever. Atlanta is a team that has struggled to avoid the fumble bug as they have put the ball on the ground 5 times in the last three games but have recovered 3 of those 5 fumbles and play against a defense that has recovered only 2 fumbles in their last three games. What you have to admire about Ryan is his composure as a starting QB in tough spots and despite the team converting only 36.1% of their third down conversions in their last three games, that should all change today as they go up against an Arizona defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 47.7% of their third down chances which is just not good enough for me. What I like the most about Atlanta is their RedZone offense because they rarely settle for field goals and have scored a touchdown 70.0% of the time once in the RedZone in their last three games settling for only 4 combined field goal attempts in those games. Arizona on the other hand cannot stop anybody in the RedZone as they have allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns 61.5% of the time once they have entered the RedZone. All you really need to know about this defense is that in their last three games they have allowed an average of 24.3 points per first half and to me that doesn't belong in the playoffs. Atlanta is going to make these guys pay on the ground and once the secondary is soft, Ryan is going to connect with Jenkings and White on deep routes that will completely put this game away for the offense. Arizona has no chance in this game. End of story really.
The Arizona Cardinals are the laughing stock of the NFL right now because they have looked horrendous on way too many occasions this season to be hosting a playoff game. I mean who the heck hosts an NFC Wildcard playoff game and is an underdog at home anyways? That's horrendous and what people don't realize is that the fact that this is more of a Dome than an outdoor surface is actually going to be more of an edge for the Falcons than Arizona who have played here all season and still not looked all that good. Arizona finished with a 9-7 SU record this season and let me tell you that these guys are lucky to be in the playoffs. They are a much better home team than road teams that's for sure as they went 6-2 at home and only 3-5 away from home this season. Okay so lets take a poll for a second here. Who here is impressed with Arizona at home this season? NOT ME THATS FOR SURE. Apart from their home opening win over the Miami Dolphins earlier this season, their five other home wins came against Buffalo, Dallas, San Francisco, St. Louis and Seattle. That means that only 1 of their 6 home wins were against teams that made the playoffs and that is just horrendous as Arizona ended up going 1-2 ATS this season at home against teams that are now playing in the playoffs. Take away their home opener and all the adrenaline in that game and I can almost guarantee this team doesn't have a single home win against a decent team this season. Arizona comes into this game averaging only 18.3 points per game in their last three games and let me tell you right now that without their offense, this team has absolutely nothing and I mean nothing because their defense won't stop anybody. In those games they have averaged only 319.7 total yards of offense per game and average 6.0 yards per play in those games but unless they can turn things around in a hurry, they are not going to do anything against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed only 18.0 points per game in their last three games and that have allowed only 361.0 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, not only is Arizona too stubborn to run the ball but they are also too stubborn to stick with something that works and that is going to cost them. Despite rushing for only 66.0 rushing yards per game in the last three games, they managed to do that on 4.8 yards per carry but have rushed only 13.7 times per game the last three games. Atlanta's weakness on defense has been the run as they have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 152.0 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Unfortuantely for Arizona again they are too stubborn to run the ball all game and as soon as they go down by a bit they completely abandon the running game. In the air, QB Kurt Warner has completed only 56.7% of his passes the last three games for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt in those games with a QB Rating of 82.0 which is not all that bad but not all that great either. Warner has tons of playoff playing experience but that doesn't mean much in these games if your defense can't stop opponents. Atlanta's secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete 63.8% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt in those games but more importantly they have not allowed any huge plays downfield and with guys like WR Anquan Bolding and WR Larry Fitzgerald roaming the field, this secondary is going to have success keeping them underneath and holding them short yardage gains all afternoon. Warner has not been protected all season and that has not changed the last few weeks as he has been sacked 8 times in his last three games and has to deal with an Atlanta pass rush (the most improved in the NFL this season) that has a whopping 10 sacks in their last three games and that are surely going to be all over him in this game. Warner has thrown 3 interceptions in those games but for some reason the Atlanta secondary has not come up with big plays as of late and they have only 1 interception in their last three games. If they can continue to attack QB's the way they have done so, believe me those INT's are going to come in this game and some DB's will be doing the dirty bird dance in the endzone by the time this is all said and done. Arizona is another one of those teams that just cannot hang onto the football and I say that because they have fumbled the ball a whopping 7 times in their last three games and have lost 5 of those fumbles. They will not survive doing that against an Atlanta team that has forced 7 fumbles in their last three games and a same Atlanta team that has recovered 4 of those fumbles for big plays. The Cardinals average almost a full 30+ penalty yards per game than Atlanta in their last three games and lack of discipline just does not work in the NFL Playoffs and this team is about to find that out. The Cardinals have converted only 34.2% of their third down chances the last three games and things are not about to get any better against a very good third down defense of Atlanta that have allowed their last three opponents to convert only 33.3% of their third down chances over that span of time. Not only is their third down defense good but their RedZone defense has been good as they have allowed touchdowns to be scored only 44.4% of the time the last three games when their opponent enters the RedZone forcing 5 FG attempts instead. That can't be good for a team like Arizona that struggles to score touchdowns in the RedZone in recent weeks. Special teams are going to be huge in this game and the edge is once again with Atlanta as they have fantastic punt and kickoff coverage units which should shut down any hopes the Cardinals have of winning this game off big special teams plays. Arizona has not scored a single point in the first quarter of a game the last three games and once they get down in this one I just don't see them digging themselves out of the large holes. Arizona is just not good enough on defense and not consistent enough on offense to win this game or even keep things close. BYE BYE ARIZONA, it's about damn time.
I don't like siding with the public in games like this but the percentages on Atlanta are not too high and I am not worried unless the numbers get anywhere close to 70% because doesn't want to crush the public too early, they have to keep them around for the more public favored teams like Indianapolis and Philadelphia. The line actually opened with the Falcons being favored by 3 points in this game but somebody quickly bet this down to 1 point and that will have some bettors concerned that the sharps are all on the Cardinals in this game. I actually don't care about the sharps here because Atlanta is the better team, Arizona does not belong in the playoffs and in the NFL it is very hard to luck out with a playoff win compared to college teams who come out of nowhere and win Bowl Games all the time even though they have no business playing in a Bowl Game to begin with. ARIZONA WON 6 GAMES AT HOME THIS SEASON, ONLY 1 AGAINST A TEAM THAT MADE THE PLAYOFFS. You would think a team like Atlanta would struggle in a road game like this, in the playoffs, with a rookie QB and a rookie head coach, playing on a grass surface and all but that won't be the case. Ryan is one of those QB's that played like a natural since his very first game, this is an indoor game so the Falcons should feel at home and the grass is not an issue as Atlanta is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games played on a grass surface. These two teams meet each other once in a while and although things have changed since their last meetings, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. THIS IS MICHAEL TURNER AND MATT RYAN'S BREAKING OUT PARTIES...watch!
Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games played on a grass surface.
Atlanta 31, Arizona 17
:toast:
The Arizona Cardinals are the laughing stock of the NFL right now because they have looked horrendous on way too many occasions this season to be hosting a playoff game. I mean who the heck hosts an NFC Wildcard playoff game and is an underdog at home anyways? That's horrendous and what people don't realize is that the fact that this is more of a Dome than an outdoor surface is actually going to be more of an edge for the Falcons than Arizona who have played here all season and still not looked all that good. Arizona finished with a 9-7 SU record this season and let me tell you that these guys are lucky to be in the playoffs. They are a much better home team than road teams that's for sure as they went 6-2 at home and only 3-5 away from home this season. Okay so lets take a poll for a second here. Who here is impressed with Arizona at home this season? NOT ME THATS FOR SURE. Apart from their home opening win over the Miami Dolphins earlier this season, their five other home wins came against Buffalo, Dallas, San Francisco, St. Louis and Seattle. That means that only 1 of their 6 home wins were against teams that made the playoffs and that is just horrendous as Arizona ended up going 1-2 ATS this season at home against teams that are now playing in the playoffs. Take away their home opener and all the adrenaline in that game and I can almost guarantee this team doesn't have a single home win against a decent team this season. Arizona comes into this game averaging only 18.3 points per game in their last three games and let me tell you right now that without their offense, this team has absolutely nothing and I mean nothing because their defense won't stop anybody. In those games they have averaged only 319.7 total yards of offense per game and average 6.0 yards per play in those games but unless they can turn things around in a hurry, they are not going to do anything against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed only 18.0 points per game in their last three games and that have allowed only 361.0 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, not only is Arizona too stubborn to run the ball but they are also too stubborn to stick with something that works and that is going to cost them. Despite rushing for only 66.0 rushing yards per game in the last three games, they managed to do that on 4.8 yards per carry but have rushed only 13.7 times per game the last three games. Atlanta's weakness on defense has been the run as they have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 152.0 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Unfortuantely for Arizona again they are too stubborn to run the ball all game and as soon as they go down by a bit they completely abandon the running game. In the air, QB Kurt Warner has completed only 56.7% of his passes the last three games for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt in those games with a QB Rating of 82.0 which is not all that bad but not all that great either. Warner has tons of playoff playing experience but that doesn't mean much in these games if your defense can't stop opponents. Atlanta's secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete 63.8% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt in those games but more importantly they have not allowed any huge plays downfield and with guys like WR Anquan Bolding and WR Larry Fitzgerald roaming the field, this secondary is going to have success keeping them underneath and holding them short yardage gains all afternoon. Warner has not been protected all season and that has not changed the last few weeks as he has been sacked 8 times in his last three games and has to deal with an Atlanta pass rush (the most improved in the NFL this season) that has a whopping 10 sacks in their last three games and that are surely going to be all over him in this game. Warner has thrown 3 interceptions in those games but for some reason the Atlanta secondary has not come up with big plays as of late and they have only 1 interception in their last three games. If they can continue to attack QB's the way they have done so, believe me those INT's are going to come in this game and some DB's will be doing the dirty bird dance in the endzone by the time this is all said and done. Arizona is another one of those teams that just cannot hang onto the football and I say that because they have fumbled the ball a whopping 7 times in their last three games and have lost 5 of those fumbles. They will not survive doing that against an Atlanta team that has forced 7 fumbles in their last three games and a same Atlanta team that has recovered 4 of those fumbles for big plays. The Cardinals average almost a full 30+ penalty yards per game than Atlanta in their last three games and lack of discipline just does not work in the NFL Playoffs and this team is about to find that out. The Cardinals have converted only 34.2% of their third down chances the last three games and things are not about to get any better against a very good third down defense of Atlanta that have allowed their last three opponents to convert only 33.3% of their third down chances over that span of time. Not only is their third down defense good but their RedZone defense has been good as they have allowed touchdowns to be scored only 44.4% of the time the last three games when their opponent enters the RedZone forcing 5 FG attempts instead. That can't be good for a team like Arizona that struggles to score touchdowns in the RedZone in recent weeks. Special teams are going to be huge in this game and the edge is once again with Atlanta as they have fantastic punt and kickoff coverage units which should shut down any hopes the Cardinals have of winning this game off big special teams plays. Arizona has not scored a single point in the first quarter of a game the last three games and once they get down in this one I just don't see them digging themselves out of the large holes. Arizona is just not good enough on defense and not consistent enough on offense to win this game or even keep things close. BYE BYE ARIZONA, it's about damn time.
I don't like siding with the public in games like this but the percentages on Atlanta are not too high and I am not worried unless the numbers get anywhere close to 70% because doesn't want to crush the public too early, they have to keep them around for the more public favored teams like Indianapolis and Philadelphia. The line actually opened with the Falcons being favored by 3 points in this game but somebody quickly bet this down to 1 point and that will have some bettors concerned that the sharps are all on the Cardinals in this game. I actually don't care about the sharps here because Atlanta is the better team, Arizona does not belong in the playoffs and in the NFL it is very hard to luck out with a playoff win compared to college teams who come out of nowhere and win Bowl Games all the time even though they have no business playing in a Bowl Game to begin with. ARIZONA WON 6 GAMES AT HOME THIS SEASON, ONLY 1 AGAINST A TEAM THAT MADE THE PLAYOFFS. You would think a team like Atlanta would struggle in a road game like this, in the playoffs, with a rookie QB and a rookie head coach, playing on a grass surface and all but that won't be the case. Ryan is one of those QB's that played like a natural since his very first game, this is an indoor game so the Falcons should feel at home and the grass is not an issue as Atlanta is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games played on a grass surface. These two teams meet each other once in a while and although things have changed since their last meetings, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. THIS IS MICHAEL TURNER AND MATT RYAN'S BREAKING OUT PARTIES...watch!
Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games played on a grass surface.
Atlanta 31, Arizona 17
:toast:
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