MistaFlava's 2009 NFL Record: 23-18 ATS (-181.00 Units)
As you can see from the information below, last season was my best ever in NFL betting as I finished with a 61% capping record on the year and finished with an 82% clip in the playoffs. I lost my first two wagers and then won my last 9 wagers of last year's playoffs including a huge play on the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl.
LAST YEAR
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 49-31-3 ATS (+528.00 Units) 61%
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Playoffs: 9-2 ATS (+185.00 Units) 82%
http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=658091
2009 Season
Week 1: 7-2 ATS (+88.00 Units)
Week 2: 4-4 ATS (-108.50 Units)
Week 3: 5-3 ATS (+36.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-5 ATS (-48.50 Units)
Week 5: 4-4 ATS (-148.00 Units)
Week 6: Pending
I won't say much more than I post around here for fun and to possibly help others win money. I bring controversy, drama, excitement or whatever you want to call it and I don't mind. All the stuff I write is my own. Sometimes tout sites steal my writeups and post them as their own. Oh well. I often do some of those writeups while drunk, half asleep or completely toasted but I make my selections way before my writeups.
Alright so the goal this season is once again to hit the 100 unit mark. All my wagers are 1 Unit = $100 unless I post otherwise. Let's make some cash this season and let's kick this off on a positive note with some big wins early one.
LETS MAKE SOME CASH!!!
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Sunday, October 18
Cincinnati Bengals -5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Houston Texans taught me a valuable lesson last week and that was tat they are going to continue to suck on the road no matter how times I decide to back them. The Texans fought all the way back from a 21-0 deficit in the second half against Arizona on the road, they tied game only to blow it right back and some very poor play calling and then failing to get into the end zone for the tie with 4 tries from inside the Arizona 10, once again a bunch of bad play calls. So this week the Texans have to find a way to recover mentally from that very tough loss and that very hard to do when you know you should have won your last game. At some point your team starts to lose faith in you too when the play calls are bad. Best example would at the end of the first half, Houston could have taken it to the half down 14-0 but then ran 2-3 plays that stopped the clock with under 2 minutes to go, they punted and let Arizona make is 21-0. In the end that was the winning score and the spread was blown. The Texans are a healthy team and not many teams can say that around the NFL these days but apart from their win at Tennessee earlier in the year, which looks just blah now with the way the Titans are playing, I was not impressed at all with their performance last week. Do not forget that in 2008, Houston went to Pittsburgh and lost by 21, they went to Tennessee and lost by 19, they went to Minnesota and lost by 7, they went to Indianapolis and lost by 6 and they went to Oakland and lost by 9. Houston comes into this game averaging 24.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 380.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. Well the Cincinnati offense won't be that easy to beat in this game as they have allowed only 18.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 341.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground is usually where Cincinnati allows teams to move the ball as they have allowed 110.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed 4.2 yards per carry in those games. Only problem there for Houston is that they average only 92.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 3.2 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Matt Schaub has actually been one of the most impressive QB's in the NFL this season but I don't think he'll do well in the cold weather. He has completed 67.3% of his passes the last three games for 288.7 passing yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt in those games with a QB Rating of 98.9 in those games games. The Bengals secondary is much improved in 2009 and they have allowed their last three opponents to complete 63.6% of their passes for 231.7 passing yards per game, only 6.3 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 75.4 averaged by their last three opponent QB's. Schaub has been under pressure pretty much all season and has been sacked 6 times in his last three games so you better believe Cincinnati is going to continue that pressure as they have 5 sacks in their last three games. Schaub better be careful because there are some big time playmakers in this secondary who have brought down 4 interceptions in their last three games while Schaub has thrown 3 of his own in the last three games. The reason I really have to go against Houston here is because they suck on 3rd downs and eventually that catches up to a team. The Texans have converted only 28.2% of their third down chances the last three games and Cincinnati won't make that any easier on them (players or the crowd) as they have allowed their last three opponents to convert 35.7% of their third down chances. The key to this game is also going to be Red Zone defense because if you hold the Texans to field goals instead of touchdowns, you pretty much win the game big. Houston has scored touchdowns in only 46.7% of their trips to the Red Zone the last three games while Cincinnati has one of the best Red Zone defenses in the NFL having allowed their opponents to score a touchdown only 33.3% of the time while in the Red Zone the last three games. The Bengals defense is a big part of why this team is 4-1 SU so far on the season because of some big plays they have made in both their own end and all over the place. I think they are going to somewhat shut down a tired Houston team while they let their offense take care of the rest.
The Cincinnati Bengals are rolling right now and Cincannati fans have been waiting for this team to get back to their winning ways for years. Well that time has come but for some reason the fans are not recognizing this and they failed to sellout the game this week so the game will not be played on television in the Cincinnati area (shit does that mean I don't get it either since I'm an hour and a half away?). Well have no fears. WR Chad Ochocinco came to the rescue Black Mexican styles as he combined with Motorola to buy all remaining tickets for this game and I have no idea what he did with them. That is the kind of feel good family feel there is on the Cincinnati team this year and that has been the biggest difference. The Bengals are 4-1 SU on the year and they could be 5-0 SU had it not been for that freak play by the Denver Broncos earlier in the year. This is a home game for Cincinnati and apart from that season opening loss to Denver here the Bengals beat Pittsburgh in their second home game and I would not mess with them at home against weaker opponents. DT Tank Johnson is back today for the Bengals after missing two weeks and that should greatly improve the defensive line here. I know some people are going to hesitate on this bet because Cincinnati is 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite failing to cover at home against Denver and then failing to cover as a -6 point favorite in Cleveland two weeks ago but we saw last week that the Browns can actually compete in games so it's not that bad. So with all the doubters still out there, the Bengals no doubt want to make a statement. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 21.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 350.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and 5.4 yards per play at the same time. Houston's defense has actually played quite well in recent weeks as they have allowed 21.7 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 301.0 total yards of offense per game while allowing 5.3 yards per play in those games. I do however think they have some big problems heading their way in this game. Cincinnati has developped quite the run game with RB Cedric Benson who has rushed for 487 yards this season on 4.4 yards per carry and 3 touchdowns while leading the team to 132.0 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. Houston cannot stop the run as their last three opponents haven't really tried to run but when they have they average 91.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. Enough said. That type of running game is going to open things up for QB Carson Palmer who has completed only 54.5% of his passes the last three games for 218.3 passing yards and 5.8 yards per pass attempt with a QB Rating of 76.3 in those games. So you are telling me this team is winning games while Palmer is playing this poorly and only showing up for final drives at the end of games? That has to change at some point and watchout when it does. The Houston pass defense has been solid allowing their last three opponents to complete 55.4% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 210.0 passing yards per game and a QB Rating of 80.9 in those games. So why in the world would I be taking the Bengals is probably the question you are asking right now since the numbers seem to indicate that the Houston defense can make some stops. What you have to clearly understand here is that despite winning games Cincinnati has been limited because of some of the defenses they have faced in their last three games like the #10 ranked Baltimore defense and the #4 ranked Pittsburgh defense. Well Houston has the #23 ranked defense in the NFL right now so I think this is a big step down in defense. In their only two home games in 2009, Cincinnati has played against that TOP 5 Pittsburgh defense and they lost to the #2 ranked Denver defense in their home opener. AGAIN, HUGE DROP IN CLASS HERE. That could explain why the Bengals have had trouble converting third downs and why they have struggled in the Red Zone and had to settle for a bunch of field goals instead of touchdown passes. I expect all of that to change in this game. Houston's Red Zone defense has been horrible as their last three opponents have scored touchdowns in 71.4% of their trips to the Red Zone and when you can't stop teams like Cincinnati deep in your own end, things tend to get pretty nasty. I also think the Bengals offensive line has had problems against blitzing teams like Pittsburgh and Baltimore in recent games but they did a great job allowing only 5 sacks in those last three games and they will find it much easier to give Palmer time in this game because Houston has only 3 sacks in their last three games and they just don't have enough pressure off the edges to beat this line. The Bengals have struggled to score in the first half of games but that will also change here as Houston has allowed a whopping 14.6 points per first half in their last three games and we already know the Bengals are going to come storming out of the gates in this game. I love this play and I think Cincinnati finally shows they are worthy of their record.
The comfort of playing indoors is officially gone for Houston. The only reason they kept it close last week in Arizona but failed to cover the spread in the end is because they had some sort of level of comfort in that stadium but now Cincinnati is pretty damn cold, this team is not used to the cold weather and they are in big time trouble in this game. If you thought the fans in Cincinnati loved this team before today, can you imagine what kind of support they will give them now that one of their own went out of his way to make sure everyone in the local area gets to watch the game today? Gotta love WR Chad Ochocino and you gotta expect the team to reward him by throwing him some meat in the end zone where Houston sucks defensively. Houston has been good as a small point underdog but they have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and they have always been a horrendous team to bet on at this time of the year going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in the month of October. They have not covered a Week 6 game in more than four years now and are a pathetic 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning record .500 or better. Cincinnati has been good enough this season to prove the boys in Vegas wrong and even here with a low line, they are not getting the doubt that I think they deserve. This is by far their easiest home opponent of the season and their first home opponent that doesn't have a TOP 10 ranked defense. The Bengals explode in this game and roll the Texans right back to Texas.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a .500 or better record at home.
Cincinnati 34, Houston 7
more to come...
As you can see from the information below, last season was my best ever in NFL betting as I finished with a 61% capping record on the year and finished with an 82% clip in the playoffs. I lost my first two wagers and then won my last 9 wagers of last year's playoffs including a huge play on the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl.
LAST YEAR
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 49-31-3 ATS (+528.00 Units) 61%
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Playoffs: 9-2 ATS (+185.00 Units) 82%
http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=658091
2009 Season
Week 1: 7-2 ATS (+88.00 Units)
Week 2: 4-4 ATS (-108.50 Units)
Week 3: 5-3 ATS (+36.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-5 ATS (-48.50 Units)
Week 5: 4-4 ATS (-148.00 Units)
Week 6: Pending
I won't say much more than I post around here for fun and to possibly help others win money. I bring controversy, drama, excitement or whatever you want to call it and I don't mind. All the stuff I write is my own. Sometimes tout sites steal my writeups and post them as their own. Oh well. I often do some of those writeups while drunk, half asleep or completely toasted but I make my selections way before my writeups.
Alright so the goal this season is once again to hit the 100 unit mark. All my wagers are 1 Unit = $100 unless I post otherwise. Let's make some cash this season and let's kick this off on a positive note with some big wins early one.
LETS MAKE SOME CASH!!!
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 18
Cincinnati Bengals -5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Houston Texans taught me a valuable lesson last week and that was tat they are going to continue to suck on the road no matter how times I decide to back them. The Texans fought all the way back from a 21-0 deficit in the second half against Arizona on the road, they tied game only to blow it right back and some very poor play calling and then failing to get into the end zone for the tie with 4 tries from inside the Arizona 10, once again a bunch of bad play calls. So this week the Texans have to find a way to recover mentally from that very tough loss and that very hard to do when you know you should have won your last game. At some point your team starts to lose faith in you too when the play calls are bad. Best example would at the end of the first half, Houston could have taken it to the half down 14-0 but then ran 2-3 plays that stopped the clock with under 2 minutes to go, they punted and let Arizona make is 21-0. In the end that was the winning score and the spread was blown. The Texans are a healthy team and not many teams can say that around the NFL these days but apart from their win at Tennessee earlier in the year, which looks just blah now with the way the Titans are playing, I was not impressed at all with their performance last week. Do not forget that in 2008, Houston went to Pittsburgh and lost by 21, they went to Tennessee and lost by 19, they went to Minnesota and lost by 7, they went to Indianapolis and lost by 6 and they went to Oakland and lost by 9. Houston comes into this game averaging 24.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 380.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. Well the Cincinnati offense won't be that easy to beat in this game as they have allowed only 18.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 341.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground is usually where Cincinnati allows teams to move the ball as they have allowed 110.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed 4.2 yards per carry in those games. Only problem there for Houston is that they average only 92.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 3.2 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Matt Schaub has actually been one of the most impressive QB's in the NFL this season but I don't think he'll do well in the cold weather. He has completed 67.3% of his passes the last three games for 288.7 passing yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt in those games with a QB Rating of 98.9 in those games games. The Bengals secondary is much improved in 2009 and they have allowed their last three opponents to complete 63.6% of their passes for 231.7 passing yards per game, only 6.3 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 75.4 averaged by their last three opponent QB's. Schaub has been under pressure pretty much all season and has been sacked 6 times in his last three games so you better believe Cincinnati is going to continue that pressure as they have 5 sacks in their last three games. Schaub better be careful because there are some big time playmakers in this secondary who have brought down 4 interceptions in their last three games while Schaub has thrown 3 of his own in the last three games. The reason I really have to go against Houston here is because they suck on 3rd downs and eventually that catches up to a team. The Texans have converted only 28.2% of their third down chances the last three games and Cincinnati won't make that any easier on them (players or the crowd) as they have allowed their last three opponents to convert 35.7% of their third down chances. The key to this game is also going to be Red Zone defense because if you hold the Texans to field goals instead of touchdowns, you pretty much win the game big. Houston has scored touchdowns in only 46.7% of their trips to the Red Zone the last three games while Cincinnati has one of the best Red Zone defenses in the NFL having allowed their opponents to score a touchdown only 33.3% of the time while in the Red Zone the last three games. The Bengals defense is a big part of why this team is 4-1 SU so far on the season because of some big plays they have made in both their own end and all over the place. I think they are going to somewhat shut down a tired Houston team while they let their offense take care of the rest.
The Cincinnati Bengals are rolling right now and Cincannati fans have been waiting for this team to get back to their winning ways for years. Well that time has come but for some reason the fans are not recognizing this and they failed to sellout the game this week so the game will not be played on television in the Cincinnati area (shit does that mean I don't get it either since I'm an hour and a half away?). Well have no fears. WR Chad Ochocinco came to the rescue Black Mexican styles as he combined with Motorola to buy all remaining tickets for this game and I have no idea what he did with them. That is the kind of feel good family feel there is on the Cincinnati team this year and that has been the biggest difference. The Bengals are 4-1 SU on the year and they could be 5-0 SU had it not been for that freak play by the Denver Broncos earlier in the year. This is a home game for Cincinnati and apart from that season opening loss to Denver here the Bengals beat Pittsburgh in their second home game and I would not mess with them at home against weaker opponents. DT Tank Johnson is back today for the Bengals after missing two weeks and that should greatly improve the defensive line here. I know some people are going to hesitate on this bet because Cincinnati is 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite failing to cover at home against Denver and then failing to cover as a -6 point favorite in Cleveland two weeks ago but we saw last week that the Browns can actually compete in games so it's not that bad. So with all the doubters still out there, the Bengals no doubt want to make a statement. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 21.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 350.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and 5.4 yards per play at the same time. Houston's defense has actually played quite well in recent weeks as they have allowed 21.7 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 301.0 total yards of offense per game while allowing 5.3 yards per play in those games. I do however think they have some big problems heading their way in this game. Cincinnati has developped quite the run game with RB Cedric Benson who has rushed for 487 yards this season on 4.4 yards per carry and 3 touchdowns while leading the team to 132.0 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. Houston cannot stop the run as their last three opponents haven't really tried to run but when they have they average 91.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. Enough said. That type of running game is going to open things up for QB Carson Palmer who has completed only 54.5% of his passes the last three games for 218.3 passing yards and 5.8 yards per pass attempt with a QB Rating of 76.3 in those games. So you are telling me this team is winning games while Palmer is playing this poorly and only showing up for final drives at the end of games? That has to change at some point and watchout when it does. The Houston pass defense has been solid allowing their last three opponents to complete 55.4% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 210.0 passing yards per game and a QB Rating of 80.9 in those games. So why in the world would I be taking the Bengals is probably the question you are asking right now since the numbers seem to indicate that the Houston defense can make some stops. What you have to clearly understand here is that despite winning games Cincinnati has been limited because of some of the defenses they have faced in their last three games like the #10 ranked Baltimore defense and the #4 ranked Pittsburgh defense. Well Houston has the #23 ranked defense in the NFL right now so I think this is a big step down in defense. In their only two home games in 2009, Cincinnati has played against that TOP 5 Pittsburgh defense and they lost to the #2 ranked Denver defense in their home opener. AGAIN, HUGE DROP IN CLASS HERE. That could explain why the Bengals have had trouble converting third downs and why they have struggled in the Red Zone and had to settle for a bunch of field goals instead of touchdown passes. I expect all of that to change in this game. Houston's Red Zone defense has been horrible as their last three opponents have scored touchdowns in 71.4% of their trips to the Red Zone and when you can't stop teams like Cincinnati deep in your own end, things tend to get pretty nasty. I also think the Bengals offensive line has had problems against blitzing teams like Pittsburgh and Baltimore in recent games but they did a great job allowing only 5 sacks in those last three games and they will find it much easier to give Palmer time in this game because Houston has only 3 sacks in their last three games and they just don't have enough pressure off the edges to beat this line. The Bengals have struggled to score in the first half of games but that will also change here as Houston has allowed a whopping 14.6 points per first half in their last three games and we already know the Bengals are going to come storming out of the gates in this game. I love this play and I think Cincinnati finally shows they are worthy of their record.
The comfort of playing indoors is officially gone for Houston. The only reason they kept it close last week in Arizona but failed to cover the spread in the end is because they had some sort of level of comfort in that stadium but now Cincinnati is pretty damn cold, this team is not used to the cold weather and they are in big time trouble in this game. If you thought the fans in Cincinnati loved this team before today, can you imagine what kind of support they will give them now that one of their own went out of his way to make sure everyone in the local area gets to watch the game today? Gotta love WR Chad Ochocino and you gotta expect the team to reward him by throwing him some meat in the end zone where Houston sucks defensively. Houston has been good as a small point underdog but they have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and they have always been a horrendous team to bet on at this time of the year going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in the month of October. They have not covered a Week 6 game in more than four years now and are a pathetic 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning record .500 or better. Cincinnati has been good enough this season to prove the boys in Vegas wrong and even here with a low line, they are not getting the doubt that I think they deserve. This is by far their easiest home opponent of the season and their first home opponent that doesn't have a TOP 10 ranked defense. The Bengals explode in this game and roll the Texans right back to Texas.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a .500 or better record at home.
Cincinnati 34, Houston 7
more to come...
