MistaFlava's NFL Week 5 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2020 NFL Football Record: 18-16-1 (+21.50 Units)

MistaFlava's 2020 NFL ATS (Regular) Record: 12-11-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 NFL O/U Record: 3-4 (-14.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 NFL *Big Plays*: 3-1 ATS (+47.50 Units)

The hot streak came to an end last week as I made way too many mistakes in the way I read games but looking to get hot early and often this week.

The goal is to make a profit on the season. For those dying to know 1 unit for me is typically $1000.

Hope everyone here has been staying safe, excited to see some familiar faces and LETS MAKE SOME CASH!!!


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Sunday, October 11


Carolina-Atlanta 'UNDER' 54 (10 Units)

I've been burned so much with UNDER bets the last two or three weeks as the OVERS continue to dominate the NFL but I think the total for this one has been set way too high and I'm going with the UNDER. Sure the Carolina Panthers have a very good offense and they are averaging 391 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play in their last three games but as a team they average only 23 points per game and have been terrible in the Red Zone converting only 46.7% of their third down chances. QB Teddy Bridgewater has a QB Rating of only 95.4 his last three games and this will be a step down in class for a struggling Falcons defense who spend way too much time on the field every game. If anything the Falcons D will be asked to step up in this game.

I said this last week and obviously Dan Quinn doesn't read my posts or listen to anything I have to say. If the offense plays too fast and tries to hit home runs on every single play it will work sometimes but it will also cost them big time defensively because the D is not good enough to be on the field over and over and over again. The solution? Run the ball and run it a lot (the reason I'm dumping Matt Ryan in Fantasy football for this one). Carolina's D has been pretty good the last three games allowing only 22.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play but they struggle against the run allowing 5.4 yards per carry. Their secondary allows completions but not big ones and their last three opponents average only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. I think Atlanta runs a lot, keeps their defense off the field and finds a way into the win column doing it.

The team trends all point to the OVER. The league trends all point to the OVER and I can safely say 70%+ of the betting public is going to be on the OVER in this one. With such a high total it means 7 or more touchdowns would have to be scored in this game and I don't see it happening. The UNDER is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between these teams so that has to be a concern for the masses and the UNDER is also 9-3 in Atlanta's last 12 Home Games so they don't get into too many shootouts in this stadium. That's enough to convince me to go the other way and (against the public) and take the UNDER.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between these teams.


Atlanta 21, Carolina 17





more to come...

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava...........BOL with all your Sun. action buddy.......always solid write ups, thank you.........

look forward to your complete card........indy

 

[Sincityman6]

Bol Flava

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...




Cincinnati-Baltimore 'UNDER' 50.5 (10 Units)

The Books in Vegas seem to be adjusting to the madness we have seen in the first four weeks of the Regular Season but this is when we should start seeing UNDER plays. The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their first win of the season on a 33 point effort over the Jaguars and have now scored 23 or more points in every game since their season opening 13 point dud in Cleveland. The Ravens defense is arguably a TOP 3 defense in the league and should have pitched a shutout last week against Washington but they ended up giving up 17 points including a very late touchdown that screwed UNDER backers and allowed Washington backers to PUSH on the spread. That didn't sit well with this team. Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon won't be running wild this week against a run defense allowing only 3.6 yards per carry the last three weeks and they also have a tremendous pass rush (7 sacks last three weeks) which is a problem for QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals who have allowed 12 sacks in their last three games.

The Bengals defense is not very good but will the Baltimore Ravens take advantage or continue to look a little bit stagnant? This offense is averaging only 328.3 total yards of offense the last three weeks but have done it on 6.0 yards per play. Not bad. They run the ball very well (obviously) averaging 177.3 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry their last three games and they are pretty efficient in the passing game although QB LaMar Jackson has a QB Rating of only 87.3 his last three games and is averaging only 151 passing yards per game in those games. The Ravens have been TERRIBLE on 3rd downs their last three games scoring touchdowns only 37.5% of the time. Cincinnati's defense allows yards but they also make plays and have 6 sacks in their last three games to go with 4 interceptions.

Both these teams have struggled in the Red Zone the last three weeks with neither scoring touchdowns more than 50% of the time when in the Red Zone. The UNDER is 3-1 his season for Baltimore and would be 4-0 had it not been for that weird touchdown they allowed late against Washington. The UNDER is actually 9-2 in Cincinnati's last 11 games as a road underdog and 9-3-1 overall in their last 13 road games dating back to the last three seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Baltimore's last seven games as a home favorite and despite four of the last five meetings hitting the OVER I think both teams will come ready to play and this should be a great back and forth battle. The total is way too high.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 9-2 in Cincinnati's last 11 games as a road underdog.


Baltimore 29, Cincinnati 13





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

Mr. Flava...........BOL with all your Sun. action buddy.......always solid write ups, thank you.........

look forward to your complete card........indy

Bol Flava

Thanks indy and Sincity! Good luck to you as well on Sunday!

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Jacksonville-Houston 'UNDER' 54.5 (10 Units)

The Jacksonville Jaguars looked pretty bad last week in Cincinnati and after a very hot start to the season where they looked like a team competing for a playoff spot, they now look more like the team we all expected to be a favorite for a top draft pick in 2021 having dropped their last three games. The Jaguars are the type of team who are putting up some big yardage and even averaging 6.4 yards per play on 409 total yards of offense per game their last three games but in those games they average only 22.7 points per game. In those games they've allowed 9 sacks and turned the ball over 5 times. If there is one thing this Houston defense can do well is pass rush (9 sacks last three games) and they've actually been very good in the Red Zone allowing touchdowns only 53.8% of the time in those games. The only chance Houston has is with playing solid defense.

The Bill O'Brien era is completely done with in Houston and some will say it came a good 2 years too late but here we are. If you watched this team play their way to an 0-4 record this season you probably noticed that the offense turned into a Home Run or nothing type of offense hence averaging only 316.7 total yards of offense per game their last three games but also averaging 6.2 yards per play. The run game doesn't exists at 3.0 yards per carry in those games but that's mostly because they've had to play from behind. Today they face a Jaguars defense that allows 155.3 rushing yards per game their last three on 4.5 yards per carry so expect the running game to feature for the most part. The offensive line has been terrible and QB Deshaun Watson has now been sacked 12 times in his last three games. No wonder they average only 20 points per game during that span.

So these two teams have combined for 6 of their 8 games to go OVER so far in 2020 but I really believe this is the game it goes UNDER. The Texans will come in with a new approach to give their defense a break and the focus will no doubt be on playing with the lead instead of playing from behind. The Jaguars trends all point to the OVER but I found an interesting one where the UNDER is 8-2 in Jackonsville's last 10 games coming off a game where they allowed 30+ points. The UNDER has also hit in four straight meetings and 4 of the last 5 played in Houston. The UNDER is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 Home Games as a favorite and has hit 7 of the last 9 times they've played an AFC South team. I'll take that.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 Home Games as a Favorite.


Houston 23, Jacksonville 20




more to come...

 

[X-Files]

It's looking like an "under" day ;

BOL sir. May you sweep the board.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Arizona-New York Jets 'OVER' 47.5 (10 Units)

The Arizona Cardinals are due for one of those big breakout performance games and this could very well be it. They have yet to score more than 30 points in any game this season which is hard to believe with the weapons they have on offense. They are still averaging 24.7 points per game in their last three games and average 359 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play in those games. The Jets defense however is absolutely horrendous. They have allowed 34.7 points per game in their last three games now and have allowed 357 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play in those games. QB Kyler Murray should have his best game of the season against a defense allowing their last three opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.3% of their passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. They don't have much of a pass rush to speak of and Murray and this offense should have their way!

The New York Jets don't need to be spectacular in his game for the OVER to hit they just have to either move the chains consistently or put together a bunch of quick 3 and outs and let the Arizona offense do the rest. RB LeVeon Bell is back but we don't really know to what capacity yet so that's something to keep an eye on against a Cardinals run defense allowing 125 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry their last three. The QB for the Jets, in what should be Adam Gase's final game in charge but won't be because they want to keep him for the entire season, is Joe Flacco. Yes that's right and if he's good enough to be a backup in this league he should make some plays. Arizona's secondary has allowed the last three quarterbacks they have faced to average 7.0 yards per pass attempt and an average QB Rating of 98.9 so expect the Jets to put some points on the board in this one.

This is one of the worst game on the early slate and I think this total has been designed to get bettors on the UNDER thinking it's Joe Flacco, he can't possibly lead this team to any points and they won't come close but I don't see it that way. I think the Arizona offense explodes in this one. The OVER is 6-2 in Arizona's last eight games as a road favorite so this team has been known to show up and put points on the board when Vegas likes them away from home. A bit irrelevant and all but the OVER is now 8-3 in the Jets last 11 games played in October and we all saw the type of game they play in that Thursday Nighter against the Broncos last week. I'm going with the points here.

Trend of the Game: The OVER is 6-2 in Arizona's last eight games as a Road Favorite.


Arizona 35, NY Jets 24





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

I'm adding a small arsenal of plays for the early games (disregard my final scores from the writeups as they are just made up spur of the moment)

Each play for 10 Units




adding...



Las Vegas-Kansas City 'UNDER' 54.5
Arizona -7
Philadelphia-Pittsburgh 'OVER' 44.5
LA Rams -7
Cincinnati +11.5
Jacksonville +5.5




Will be posting some plays for the afternoon games when we get there! Good Luck to everyone in the early games, a lot of money on the line!



:toast:

 

[G-Man!]

New Name??? "MistaTotals".
BOL today Flava...

 

[Dexter03]

Bol

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



New York Giants +7.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

The New York Giants have been awful all around this season and their last few games but they've been competitive at times when it comes to the spread and the big story line today in this one is the return of JASON GARRETT to his old team. Don't you get the feeling he's been saving an arsenal of plays just for this one and will probably unleash the best he's got like this is his Super Bowl? I mean QB Daniel Jones has been God awful with a QB Rating of 61.7 in his last three games completing only 60.2% of his passes for 5.0 yards per pass attempt. Having said that the Giants are going up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season in the Cowboys who allowed their last three QB opponents to have an average QB Rating of 123.3 and who are allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt and have been shredded on the ground for 179 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry their last three games. This should be the Giants best offensive production in weeks.

The Dallas Cowboys are one insane comeback away against the winless Atlanta Falcons from being 0-4 on the season and under new Head Coach Mike McCarthy and can you imagine that after years of saying Jason Garrett was the problem around here. Well the insane pressure is on the old Packers coach to put something together here against a very bad team. Having said all of that we know what the Cowboys can do on offense as they averaged a crazy 552.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three games but...the Giants defense has actually been a nice surprise in 2020. They are playing behind an inefficient offense yet still allow only 23.3 points per game their last three games and allowed only 321.3 total yards per game and only 5.2 yards per play in those games. They are EXTREMELY stingy against the run and have allowed only 95.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.2 yards per carry. This will make the Dallas running game a non factor and make them one dimensional. The big issue for the Giants is 3rd down defense but they make up for it in the Red Zone where their last three opponents have scored touchdowns only 60% of the time.

You have to love the NFL and their storylines and this is a big one. This is yet again the game where everyone expects the Cowboys to bounce back and win by 20+ against a hapless Giants team but we all know Jason Garrett has some F U plays planned for this one. Some big ones. The Giants are a crazy 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games dating back to two seasons ago and they are 16-5 ATS as a road underdog in their last 21 games. Dallas on the other hand have looked awful all season on defense and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a Home Favorite. I know all the meeting trends point to the Cowboys because they are on a 6-0 ATS run against the Giants but this one is different. One of my biggest plays of the season is on the Giants plus the point. They are the best road underdog in the NFL the last three seasons.

Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games as an underdog.


NY Giants 24, Dallas 21





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

Will have another play tonight after a profitable day, stay tuned!

 

[Dexter03]

nice job MF!!!

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.......well done buddy........indy

 

[MistaFlava]

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Minnesota Vikings +6.5 (10 Units)

The Minnesota Vikings got a nice head of steam last week when they went to Houston and beat the Texans but they face a much more effective offense tonight. The Vikings offense is starting to hit on all cylinder as they come into this game averaging 6.3 yards per play in their last three games and have done that on 349.7 total yards of offense per game in those games. The running game behind RB Dalvin Cook has been tremendous averaging 156 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry in their last three games. Having said that the strong point of the Seattle defense is their run D and in their last three games they've allowed opponents to run for only 77 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. Time to unleash QB Kirk Cousins who has struggled this season but could have his best game of 2020 against a defense allowing 390 passing yards per game their last three games. They are allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt and Cousins has a slew of guys he can throw to including rookie WR Justin Jeffferson (LSU) and WR Adam Thielen. I expect the Vikings offense to feature tonight and put up some points.

The Seattle Seahawks have one of the top offenses in the NFL and it showed last week in Miami. A lot of people had the Dolphins in a huge letdown spot for the Seahawks but they went out East and won at 1:00pm ET time game and showed they are serious contenders in the NFC. The offense is averaging 427.3 total yards of offense per game their last three games on 7.0 yards per play and have been carving up opposing defenses. I'm not saying the Vikings can stop them because they are allowing 6.1 yards per play their last three games and almost 400 yards of offense per game but the Vikings, much like Seattle, have been very good against the run allowing only 3.8 yards per carry their last three games. Their secondary is allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt their last three games but that's not where this game will be won. The Vikings D has been excellent on 3rd downs (25% conversion rate for opponents) and in the Red Zone (opponents scoring touchdowns only 36.4% of the time) in their last three games. Those are huge numbers to have against this Seattle offense.

I don't typically bet on a team that is coming off a big road win the way Minnesota won last week in Houston but the Vikings have been a very good October team the last three seasons and are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in the month of Drake. A lot of people don't know this but Seattle has covered the spread in only 2 of their last 9 Home Games and only 1 of their last 6 games versus NFC opponents. Minnesota has not covered the spread in Seattle forever and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played in this stadium but there are no fans this time around. The tide is about to turn in this series and I'm calling the Vikings to pull the shock win and win straight up.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in October.


Minnesota 20, Seattle 17





more to come...

 

[Smoke#14]

Oh no, I already took Seattle and the over

 

[seer]

minny is super terrible on d. gl though

 

[MistaFlava]

minny is super terrible on d. gl though

They called a good game for the most part and the pressure was effective but man Dantzler was so lost on that 4th down completion.

 

[Mjeecay]

Well done MF. Always look forward to the plays and write ups.