MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 3-4-1 ATS (-2.50 Units) 43%
I hate the first two weeks of both NFL and CFB football and it showed. I am off to a sizzling start to my College Football week as I reverted back to an old capping style of mine that brought me some huge cash over the last few seasons. I was in Buffalo all weekend last week and did not have time post so there is no record even though I nailed my Sunday plays and went 1-1 in the two primetime games. Back to my old capping style, check this out.
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Sunday, September 28
Minnesota Vikings +3 (10 Units)
The Minnesota Vikings have screwed me over a couple of times now the last two seasons but they are lucky I forget fast because I am right back on their asses this week looking for money. After losing to both Green Bay and Indianapolis (two games they probably could have won with more effective play calling on offense), the Vikings came out last week and shocked just about everyone with their 20-10 win as a -3.5 point home favorite. Well I wouldn't call it shocking win because this team was due but the emphasis all week has been on momentum and how important it is to make it to 2-2 and not fall to 1-3 in a division that will probably only get tougher as the season moves along. I don't think it's a coincidence that the team won with a fresh QB change and old man Gus Frerotte running the show. He has a lot of experience and the offense was run with more efficiency in that game. Minnesota went down 10-0 in that game and the fans started panicking. Tarvaris Jackson was actually being talked about on some radio talk shows this week but only to say that there is little or no chance of him returning as the starter of this team in 2008. Frerotte has the job for now and the Vikings badly need to win this game if they want to keep a decent pace in a division that is proving to be one of the best in the NFL. Minnesota comes into this game averaging 18.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 319.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games which is not all that great. Tennessee has one of the most solid (and maybe untested) defenses in the NFL as they have allowed only 9.7 points per game this season and allowed only 240.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, we all know what RB Adrian Peterson is capable of and he has led this team to 162.0 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry this season. Tennessee has allowed only 89.0 rushing yards per game on the year but they have allowed 3.7 yards per carry and teams have run on them only 24.3 times per game which is not much at all. Expect a ton of AP in this game. In the air, QB Gus Frerotte lives to see another day as he saved the season last week and he has now completed 57.1% of his passes this season for 204 passing yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception with a 77.1 QB Rating on the season. Tennessee has allowed opposing teams to complete 56.6% of their passes on the season for 4.6 yards per pass attempt. The main concern for this team is going to be the protection Frerotte gets because in three games this season the Vikings have allowed 7 sacks while the Titans have a mean pass rush that has yielded 11 sacks in three games. If Peterson is used in different formations, this team can avoid the sacks and keep the chains moving. The Titans also have 7 interceptions in their three games this season which is why I don't think we see Frerotte taking too many risks downfield. What I do like about Minnesota is that despite running the ball so much they have fumbled only 1 time and lost that fumble this season. The Vikings have had all sorts of problems in the RedZone this season scoring touchdowns in only 14.3% of their visits to the land of glory and that just won't do in a game like this. I know the crowd is going to be super loud and I know the Titans have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns only 25.0% of the time in the Redzone this season but Peterson is my x-factor and I like the matchup problems he brings to the Tennessee table. Opponents have converted only 26.2% of their third down chances against this defense and it's important for Frerotte to keep the chains moving and eat up as much clock as possible. I think Peterson is going to have a huge game and I really like Frerotte to show poise and experience in a hostile environment as he should do all the small things right to win this game. WR Sidney Rice is back this week and the Vikings come in with the momentum they have so desperately needed all season.
The Tennessee Titans are somewhat of a surprise team (amongst a few others) in the AFC this season as they are off to an impressive 3-0 SU start to the season. Not only have they won all the games they have played but they have been a betting sweetheart with their 3-0 ATS record as well. Their wins over Jacksonville, Cincinnati and Houston are good wins but is anyone all that impressed by the quality of teams they have faced so far this season? I'm not impressed at all for the simple fact that those teams are a combined 1-7 SU this season and the level of quality in their opponents has been missing. The Vikings are by far the toughest test this team is going to face before hitting the middle part of the season (most crucial time in the NFL season) and apart from Jacksonville's rushing attack in Week 1, I don't think the Titans know what they have coming on the ground in this game. The Titans have been home all week, probably getting a little too cozy in their environments for my liking, and they are coming off an impressive 31-12 home win over the Houston Texans as -4.5 point favorites in that game. The only team to have outyarded the Titans this season was Cincinnati and that was only in the passing department and that's it (well they did play from behind all game so what do you expect?). The fans booing Vince Young off the field looks to have been a blessing in disguise if you ask me. Tennessee comes into this game averaging a very decent 24.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 315.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games. So hold on a second here. Tennessee offense has not been as good or effective as Minnesota's offense? Wow. I guess the Titans defense has really forced a lot of turnovers. Minnesota's defense continues to be underrated in the eyes of the public bettor because the Vikings have allowed 280.7 total yards of offense per game this season and they have allowed only 5.3 yards per play and only 17.3 points per game in those games. On the ground is probably where this battle is going to be won or lost for both these teams. Tennessee comes into the game averaging 156.0 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry in those games and they actually have to face one of the NFL's best run defenses in Minnesota that has allowed only 70.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry against RB's like Joseph Addai and Ryan Grant. That is going to force Tennessee to throw a lot more than they have all season as QB Kerry Collins has completed 61.2% of his passes this season for 382 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 90.7 on the season. Having said that, I think the Titans are a bit too stubborn to pass the ball and why not pass against this Vikings defense that has allowed opposing teams to complete 65.6% of their passes this season for 6.8 yards per pass attempt? Well I don't think the Vikings mind if the Titans let Collins take some deep shots because he has been interception prone in the past and the Vikings believe they can get enough pressure on him to force huge mistakes. The Tennessee QBs have been sacked only 2 times this season but Minnesota's pass rush has some gems and they have already amassed 7 sacks in three games. The more pressure they bring in this game, the more they stall the Titans offense if you ask me. The Titans as a team have thrown 3 interceptions and they have fumbled the ball 4 times (losing 2 of those fumbles in the process). Even though they have recovered only two fumbles this season, this Vikings defense is aggressive and they will take some chances having forced 5 fumbles in three games. Its not like Tennessee is going to dominate the Vikings on all fronts and even though they have converted a very decent 30.8% of their third down chances this season, Minnesota has allowed opponents to convert only 36.1% of their third down passes on the season and I don't see this factoring into the outcome. RB Chris Johnson has been at the center of this offense all season but the rookie will hit a brick wall when he faces this run defense and that is when Kerry Collins will be called into action and asked to do a lot more than he can handle on a regular basis. The Vikings defense is going to force turnovers in this game and they are going to once again put their offense in a position to win the game. I don't like the Titans or their running game in this matchup.
I'm sorry but the Tennessee Titans are not about to go 4-0 to start the season, I don't really care what anyone says. Sure things have been all nice and simple for them to this point but I am ready to call for a straight up loss here. All I keep hearing about is the Tennessee defense this, the Tennessee defense that but what about the Minnesota defense that is getting better with time? What people don't realize is that if the offense was even a little bit effective, the Vikings defense would not allow more than 10 points per game. This is a great AFC versus NFC matchup that I have rated as the 2nd most entertaining and intriguing game of the weekend. Please consider this when placing your wagers for this game. Yes the Tennessee Titans are off to an unbeaten start but the teams they have wins against are a combined 1-7 SU on the season. Yuck. Minnesota has not been a good team to bet on this season or late last season going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. However, they are the kind of team that plays up or down to their opponent's level which is why they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Tennessee has been a horrendous Week 4 team over the years (this is usually their letdown game) going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Week 4 games. I like Adrian Peterson and Gus Frerotte to win on the road and pull to .500 in this game.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 4 of the season.
Minnesota 23, Tennessee 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (10 Units)
The Green Bay Packers had it all. After two weeks of the early NFL season that had so many question marks just a few weeks ago the Packers were off to an impressive 2-0 SU start with new WB Aaron Rodgers at the helms. Well the party sorta came to a halt last weekend on Sunday Night Football when the Dallas Cowboys easily walked into Lambeau Field and beat the Packers 26-17. The only road game Green Bay has played this season was against the second worst team in the NFL the Detroit Lions and that was an easy 48-25 win (a game the Packers actually trailed mid-fourth quarter if you can believed that). This is going to be this team's very first game without outstanding CB Al Harris who is out for the season with a ruptures spleen. I know one player doesn't make a football team but Harris is the leader in the secondary and the Packers don't have much time to adjust. The last time Green Bay was in Raymond James Stadium was back in 2003 when they won 20-13. Having said that, they have played here a total of 6 times since the 1998 season and that win in 2005 was their one and only win during that period of time. So the Packers are 1-5 SU in Tampa Bay since 1998 going 2-4 ATS in those games. The Green Bay Packers come into this game averaging 29.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 366.0 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.2 yards per play in those games. They are going up against a Tampa Bay defense that has taken an unusual route this season and approached games with a 'risk-reward' strategy. As a result of this approach they have allowed 19.0 points per game no the season and in those games they have also allowed 359.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Ryan Grant continues to run well in his sophomore season and he has led the team to 115.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. The Bucs defense is going to be ready for anything Green Bay has to throw at them in this game as they have allowed only 121.3 rushing yards per game this season for 4.0 yards per carry which is not that bad. In the air, QB Aaron Rodgers has been fantastic completing 64.6% of his passes for 796 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a 102.9 QB Rating on the season. What more could you ask for really? On that note, Rodgers should have some success passing against a defense that has allowed opponents to complete 58.6% of their passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. But here is the deal. I talked about the high risk defense approach Tampa has taken this season and that approach, although it look bad on paper stats wise, has generated 8 sacks in three games and has generated 5 interceptions to go along with those sacks. I think Rodgers has yet to feel pressure the way he is going to feel pressure in this game and in turn for me that should result in a few interceptions that could potentially change this game. The Packers offensive line has allowed Rodgers to be sacked 6 times in three games so yeah I'm expecting the Bucs to come at him hard. The Packers are 2-1 on the season but you won't stay 2-1 very long if you keep turning over the ball. The Packers have fumbled a whopping 7 times this season recovering 5 of those fumbles. Green Bay has been very good on third downs this season (completing 42.6% of their third down conversions) and they have also been very good in the RedZone (scoring touchdowns 60.0% of the time they go in there this season) but all of that won't matter here because Tampa Bay will feed off the energy of the home crowd and the Bucs have allowed their opponents this season to complete only 34.0% of their third down chances and have allowed those same opponents to score touchdowns only 25.0% of the time when entering the RedZone. Green Bay has taken 9.3 penalties per game this season resulting in a whopping 82.7 penalty yards per game which is almost a full field and a touchdown for Tampa Bay. I think the Buccaneers defense is really going to clamp down in this game and I think they are going to come after Rodgers with everything they have expecting him to make mistakes and turn over the ball. The kid has been good but this defense is experienced. Green Bay will win game this season but not here, not now.
The Tampa Bay Buccanners should actually be 3-0 SU right now if you ask me because I watched most of their season opening game in New Orleans and they led most of the way before screwing things up in the late going and allowing Drew Brees to pretty much unload on them for four point win as +3 point underdogs. I don't know about you guys but I have been impressed with this team in all three of their games as they followed up that loss with a 24-9 home win over the Atlanta Falcons (nothing special but it's still a spread covering win) and then went to Chicago last week for a battle of the defenses, winning in overtime 27-24. So there is no doubt in anyone's that the team picked by many experts to win the Division are carrying some serious momentum coming into this game. The good news doesn't stop there as Tampa Bay escaped the first three games without any serious injuries to their starters (something that has hampered this team for the last few seasons) and everyone on both sides of the ball seems to be healthy. The Bucs last played against Green Bay in 2005 at Lambeau Field where they managed to beat Favre and his crew 17-16 in one heck of a football game. So it has been three seasons and many new faces later and I think we see the Buccaneers continue the trend of playing well at home. Tampa Bay comes into this game averaging 23.7 points per game this season and even though that is not as much as Green Bay, they do average more yards per game than the Packers as they have amassed 372.3 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.5 yards per play in those games. The Packers defense has not been all that impressive this season and they do lose CB Al Harris for the season as they have allowed 23.7 points per game this season and have also allowed 373.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Earnest Graham continues to impress as he has led this team 119.0 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry with RB Warrick Dunn as his backup and option on second or third downs. I think Graham and Dunn are going to have a huge game where they control movement at the line scrimmage and I say that because the Packers dread playing a good running team having already allowed 151.0 rushing yards per game this season on a whopping 5.7 yards per carry. Should the Bucs need to pass the ball, QB Brian Griese is ready and he has completed 57.1% of his passes this season for 567 passing yards, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and a QB Rating of 71.3 on the season. Not bad but not great so don't be surprised to see QB Jeff Garcia back out there at some point. Regardless, the loss of Al Harris is huge for this secondary because they had allowed opponents to complete only 50.5% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt and now they have a huge hole to fill. The key against Green Bay is to have good pass protection because they come at you hard and they already have 9 sacks in three games. The Bucs offensive line has been fantastic clearing the way for Graham and they have allowed only 4 sacks in three games which should give Griese time to work. That kind of pressure has led Green Bay to 5 interceptions on the season so the more Tampa Bay keeps things on the ground, the more they have a chance. The Bucs have lost only 2 fumbles this season but it won't matter much here because the Packers are not aggressive tacklers and they have recovered only 1 fumble in three games this season. The Buccaneers are converting 33.3% of their third down chances this season but I see them having a bit more success here as the Packers defense has allowed a lot of big third down plays and their opponents this season have converted 38.1% of their third down chances. The key for the Tampa Bay offense in this game is to score touchdowns in the RedZone and not settle for field goals. That will include taking risks on 4th down but it doesn't matter, you're at home, with you fans and your defense so you have nothing to lose. If Tampa Bay can stay away from taking penalties and getting involved with some Green Bay boneheads, you can expect them to run the ball with a lot of success here (Graham should hit at least 140 yards in this one), which controls the clock and puts them in a position to win at home. I like them a lot here.
The line opened with a -2.5 for Tampa Bay and I was willing to pound away. The line has since dropped to -1 and I am all over this bad boy. Are you kidding me? I guess the Green Bay Packers are going to be a cappers sweetheart most of this season and I say that because I remember the experts being all over them in all three of their games so far. Dallas taught this team a nice little season last week and again if you look back at the Minnesota and Detroit games, the Packers could have easily lost either one of those games allowing both teams to make furious comebacks in the late going of the game. The big knock for me on this Green Bay team is that they cannot and have not stopped the run this season which is a big problem when you play on the road against teams who can run the ball. Green Bay has been one of the best bounce back teams over the last few seasons when coming off a loss as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight following an ATS loss. Having said that, those were with Brett Favre (captain heart) playing and now he's gone. Green Bay is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games which is impressive but they are only 4-9-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay is a very good home team that has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 home games and as long as they can run the ball effectively, their defense will dominate and they will win this game a lot easier than people think.
Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Tampa Bay 19, Green Bay 12
Washington Redskins +11 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Washington Redskins have been on thin ice with their fans for the last few seasons but all that was supposed to have been taken care of when head coach Joe Gibbs was replaced in the off-season and now this team had no more excuses for underachieving. Well the Redskins came out of gates stumbling yet again this season as they lost the season opening game on National TV to the NY Giants by a score of 16-7 but I guess that game really ignited them and this team has not looked back since. The Redskins have since played two home games where they smashed the the New Orleans Saints 29-24 as a -1 point home favorite in their home opener and they followed that up with an impressive 24-17 win last week at home over the Arizona Cardinals as -3 point home favorites. Now comes a huge divisional matchup against the best team in the NFL the Dallas Cowboys and the experts have already predicted the Redskins get blown out of the water here. How can you possibly predict that when Washington came very close to beating Dallas twice last season (winning at home and losing only 28-23 here in Dallas). Apart from their September 2006 loss in this place, the Redskins have really played the Cowboys tight in all their games as they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and have straight up won some games here in the past. I know LB Jason Taylor is out for the Skins but their defense is good enough to replace him and I think they have a shot here. The Redskins come into this game averaging 20.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 329.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per carry and they will need everything they can to win this game. Dallas has allowed opponents to score 21.0 points per game this season and in those games they have managed to allow 292.0 total yards of offense per game but it could have been worse seeing how they allow 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Clinton Portis has not hit any home runs yet this season but he has led this team to 123.0 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry this season. He is going up against a Dallas defense that is actually beatable on the ground as they have allowed 84.3 rushing yards per game (teams only run on them 20.7 times per game for some reason) and 4.1 yards per carry which gives the Skins some room to have second and third downs on short yardage situations. In the air, QB Jason Campbell has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 passing yards, 7.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a QB Rating of 100.1 on the season. Hold on, is this the same Jason Campbell that passed for 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season? Wow what a change. He is going up against a Cowboys defense that has yet to impress me as they have allowed their opponents to complete 58.0% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. What Dallas does well is pressure quarterbacks because they do have a whopping 10 sacks in three games this season but that's not a problem because Washington's offensive line is solid and they have allowed only 5 sacks in three games. For a defense that is supposed to be one of the best in the NFL, the Cowboys have not really made any big plays this season as they come into this game with 0 interceptions in three games and only 2 recovered fumbles on the season. Opposing QB's have earned a QB Rating of 83.0 which is quite high for an elite team in this league. The Redskins offense is not flashy and they have converted only 31.4% of their third down chances this season but they do have a great RedZone presence and they rarely settle for field goals when they have the chance to take six and an extra. Washington has scored touchdowns in 60.0% of their RedZone chances while Dallas has allowed touchdowns in 50.0% of their opponents trips to the RedZone. As long as Clinton Portis can move those chains and setup some second and third down short yardage situations, Campbell is going to shine and I predict he finds WR Santana Moss on a deep route once or twice to change this game. Love the Skins here.
The Dallas Cowboys are the best team in the NFL. Period. Okay but that doesn't mean they are going to win every game they play by 20+ points and I have actually not been all that impressed by the way these guys have played. I talked about this before the Philadelphia game and I talked about it again before the Green Bay game last week. For whatever reason the last few seasons the Dallas Cowboys have been a much better team away from home and they have faltered and lost games like this one in front of their hometown fans. I actually thought Cleveland had a chance to give them a run for their money in the opening week of the season but I was wrong and Dallas won easily 28-10 on the road. The Cowboys then returned home and allowed 37 points against Philadelphia in a 41-37 loss which again goes to show their lack of efficiency in home games. I was however on Dallas last week when they went to Green Bay and had no problems taking care of business in a 27-16 win at Lambeau. On the injury front the Cowboys have managed to stay quite healthy but I am still a bit worried about the fact that S Roy Williams is out for most of the season. Williams was a guy with leadership you really want playing in rivalry games like this one and his absence, although not felt last week, could play a huge factor into the game this week. Dallas comes into this game averaging a whopping and NFL leading 32.0 points per game this season and in those games they have managed to get 440.0 total yards of offense and averaged a crazy 7.2 yards per play in those games. Washington's defense is playing under the watchful and heavenly eyes of Sean Taylor and they have allowed only 19.0 points per game this season (after playing against the Giants and Saints which is not bad at all). They have also allowed only 305.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and allowed 5.3 yards per play which is pretty damn good considering who they have faced. We all know Dallas can run the ball and they have proved it early as they come into this game averaging 150.7 rushing yards per game this season on 5.0 yards per carry in those games. I don't know about Washington's run defense because they have allowed some big plays this season and are allowing 108.3 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. This will be their first true test of the season against Barber and Felix Jones. In the air, QB Tony Romo has completed 67.4% of his passes this season for 892 passing yards, 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and a QB Rating of 103.2 on the season. Not bad at all if you ask me. Having said that, the Washington defense is actually quite solid and they have allowed opponents to complete only 58.6% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt on the season. The offensive line has done a great job allowing only three sacks all season but things could be a little stickier in this game as Washington's defense has 6 sacks in three games and they will bring pressure from all sides. This same defense also has 4 interceptions in those games to go along with 2 recovered fumbles and 3 forced fumbles which is not too bad and which goes to show how aggressive they can be at times. Opposing QB's have averaged a QB Rating of only 69.1 on the season and I expect Romo to have all sorts of problems stalling nice drives at midfield. Dallas has been lucky not to turn the ball over more as they have fumbled 6 times in three games but have lost only 2 of those six fumbles. They are one of the best third down teams in the NFL having completed 60% of their third down chances this season and Washington has allowed opponents to complete 42.6% of their third down chances on the season. That should allow Dallas to move the chains and score some points but the question is will they be touchdowns or field goals. Dallas is scoring touchdowns only 53.6% of the time once in the RedZone this season and they'll have to be a lot better than that if they expect to win games by large margins. Special teams are going to be huge in this game because we all know how Felix Jones can return kickoffs and the rookie won't back down. The good thing is Washington has allowed only 19.5 yards per kickoff return this season and their coverage teams are good. Dallas is going to score points in this game but I like the Redskins defense to make some huge plays of their own at some point to help the offense with field position. Not today Dallas.
Vegas makes me laugh sometimes. This game has nothing to do with what either team has done all season and this game has nothing to do with what anyone else has done all season. However, the oddsmakers try to make us think this is one of those joe blow games where the best team in the NFL just walks in here and demolishes a team that has no business winning this game. WELL NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! What about the rivalry, what about the hatred, what about the divisional game atmosphere? I mean does that make any sense to anyone else that oddsmakers are completely ignoring all these intangibles? I have talked about this way too many times in the past but penalties and discipline will decide close divisional games like this one. Washington is averaging only 3.7 penalties per game this season which has cost them only 20.3 penalty yards while the Dallas Cowboys have lacked discipline big time and taken a whopping 9.3 penalties per game this season on 81.3 penalty yards per game. WOW! We saw this be a factor in the Georgia-Alabama game yesterday. Washington lives to play against teams like Dallas as they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games versus teams with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last eight versus NFC opponents. I know Dallas is on fire right now but did you know that they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus the NFC East and 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus just NFC opponents? The Underdog is a whopping 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings and that is enough for me to grab these damn points and bring them home. Washington with the upset is what I'm looking at.
Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these teams.
Washington 28, Dallas 24
Chicago Bears +3 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***The Philadelphia Eagles have earned the public respect of cappers because of the way they have started their season but how quickly a lot of people forget how the NFL actually works. You can look great one week against a certain team because the matchup is good and the situation is right but you can look just as bad the next week against a weaker opponent that has a better matchup in terms of setup. The Eagles are coming off an impressive 15-6 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. As impressive as that win was, Willie Parker and Big Ben were playing hurt or not at all in that game and you have to remember that this is the same team that allowed 41 points the week before against the Dallas Cowboys. Having said that, the Eagles also got to play the St. Louis Rams in Week 1 of the season so they have yet to really be tested by a true in-conference defense although the Steelers are as good as it gets in the NFL. The road team has dominated this series for as long as I can remember and the Eagles have not lost in the Windy City since the 1995 season. However, mister X-Factor himself RB Brian Westbrook is probably out for tonight's game and without Westbrook the dynamics of this offense change a lot and the Bears defense can now afford to take risks and come after McNabb with everything they have here. There will be no holding back in tonight's game I can promise you that. Philadelphia comes into this game averaging 30.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 373.0 total yards of offense and a whopping 5.8 yards per play in those games. Chicago's defense is finally healthy this season and they have allowed 20.0 points per game on the year but have also allowed only 321.0 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 4.8 yards per play in those games. I somehow don't think the Eagles will drop any big plays in this game. On the ground, the Eagles struggled with or without Westbrook as they average only 83.7 rushing yards per game on the season on 3.2 yards per carry. The Bears defense has allowed only 71.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.4 yards per carry but the point here is that without Westbrook, all eyes are on McNabb for this defense and #54 knows what grill he is knocking out tonight. In the air, McNabb has completed 66.7% of his passes this season for 838 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 102.8 (the best numbers he has shown in years). This Chicago defense probably doesn't give a rats ass as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.4% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season. Yes that sounds like a lot of yardage and it is but this defense is a risk equals reward kind of defense and they do make some huge plays. The offensive line has been a problem for the Eagles as they have allowed 7 sacks in three games so what the hell are they going to do tonight when they face a Bears defense that has the potential to disrupt any QB's playing abilities in a game? Sure the Bears have only 5 sacks this season but they do have 4 interceptions to go along with those sacks and they have recovered 2 fumbles which shows signs of an aggressive defense. The reason the Eagles have been so successful this season is because they have converted 47.5% of their third down chances but that is not going to take them anywhere in this game as the Bears defense has held their opponents to a 32.5% conversion rate on third downs this season. Philadelphia is not that good in the RedZone, scoring touchdowns only 53.8% of the time they have been there and the Bears are equally the same on defense as opponents are scoring touchdowns only 50.0% of the time from inside the RedZone. The Eagles offense has been one of the best in the NFL this season but the Bears have a lot of potential and they will probably pull out all stops in this game knowing they can afford to with the Eagles missing one of their big weapons. The Chicago defense has held opposing QB's to an average QB Rating of 68.7 this season and if McNabb can only play at that level against this defense, he won't have a chance to win this game. I am a huge fan of this defense and I think they get the job done.
The Chicago Bears are off to a 1-2 start on the season but believe me when I say they are better than that and believe me when I say that we have not seen the best this team has to offer. On that note, I am placing a huge wager on these guys tonight knowing that the home crowd is going to be as loud as it has been in years and knowing that live home underdogs have been huge cash money this season on National TV in both college football and pro football. It seems like everyone already forgot about Chicago's impressive 29-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 of this season (on the road for that matter) but that's probably because all they can see is the Bears Week 2 loss to Carolina (in stunning fashion at the end) and in Week 3 once again another stunning loss late in the game this time to Tampa Bay. Make no mistake about it, Tampa Bay is a very good team and there is no shame in losing to them. The Bears could very well be 3-0 SU to start the season but now it's time to recover. They are 1-0-1 ATS as underdogs this season and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs if you go back to last season with their only loss coming against the Giants earlier in the year. Like I said before, this Bears team is very healthy right now with no huge injuries to speak of, although Devin Hester did miss last week's game and there is a chance he could be out once again this week. Chicago comes into this game averaging a very decent 23.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 326.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games. Philadelphia's defense has actually been quite solid this season allowing only 16.7 points per game on the year and in those games they have allowed only 242.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground is where the Bears are going to win this game. Led by rookie RB Matt Forte, this team finally has something going for them in terms of ground game as they average a whopping 152.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry in those games. The Eagles have not faced a true running game this season as Willie Parker got hurt last week, the Rams suck and Dallas was too busy throwing the ball trying to catchup. Because of that, their defense is a bit overrated and they have allowed only 45.7 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 2.7 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Kyle Orton has completed 62.1% of his passes this season for 567 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 79.0 on the season which needs to improve right here and right now. I say that because Orton should have room to operate against an Eagles defense that has allowed a ton of big plays this season. The Eagles are allowing opponents to complete 59.1% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt but they do bring a ton of pressure and the Bears have to be ready for it. The matchups have to be right tonight because the offensive line has allowed 6 sacks in only three games and the Eagles lead the NFL right now with a whopping 13 sacks in only three games this season. Orton is not a mobile QB and he will not escape the pass rush which is why he needs a two step drop and pop or some sort plan to make the screen pass work in this game. Despite all that pressure, the Eagles have not been all that opportunistic on defense with only 2 interceptions in three games and only 2 recovered fumbles in those same games. Chicago really needs to find a way to stay disciplined in this game because they already average a whopping 9.0 penalties per game this season and that is not going to work against an Eagles team that has been a lot more composed and that is averaging only 5.3 penalties per game this season. You have to be impressed with Orton and the way he has played on third downs this season as the Bears have managed to convert 43.5% of their third down conversion chances this season but things may not come as easily tonight against an Eagles defense that has allowed opponents to convert only 23.5% of the time on third downs this season. The key for me here is going to be Chicago's play in the RedZone where they have scored touchdowns 50.0% of the time this season and the Eagles have been horrendous in the RedZone defensively allowing their opponents to score touchdowns 60.0% of the time in those same games. If Hester is ready to go for this game I think he will get his first return TD of the season on special teams because the Eagles coverage on kick returns has been a disaster and they have allowed opponents to return kicks for an average of almost 30 yards each time which is way too much against Hester and his capabilities. I like the combination of Matt Forte and Kyle Orton to get some help from the defense in this game as they control the clock, make some huge plays on defense and win this game at home for the fans who really deserve a big win.
THE PUBLIC SHEEP HAVE GATHERED AND THEIR WAGER IS ON PHILADELPHIA! I didn't mean to shout or anything but just thought I would let you guys know that the majority here is on the Eagles and that majority is completely ignoring the fact that RB Brian Westbrook is probably out for the game tonight (I capped this with him out of the lineup) and they are also completely disrespecting the Bears at home with this kind of defense, a healthy one at that. I mean we are almost at 70% with how much the public like the Eagles tonight but as I mentioned before, all they really did was play against a banged up Pittsburgh team, beat the crap out of the worst teams in the NFL the St. Louis Rams and get lit up defensively by the Dallas Cowboys on National TV. So as impressive as you think they have been, you better think again because this Bears defense is not about to let these guys do anything against them at home. Philadelphia has been one of the most profitable teams to bet in recent years on the road as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games and they have cashed huge for people who tail them. Having said that, the Eagles have always been a team that plays down to their opponents expected level and I think they struggle on both sides of the ball tonight. Chicago has covered the spread only 4 times in their last 14 home games but I do like them coming off an ATS loss as they are 5-1 ATS in that situation in their last six games. The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and nothing should change this time around. I like the Bears on National TV.
Trend of the Game: Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games that follow a straight up loss.
Chicago 23, Philadelphia 13
Monday, September 29
Pittsburgh Steelers -5 (5 Units)
The Baltimore Ravens have the NFL world wondering wtf is really going on when a no-name QB walks into a situation, is named the starter and leads a team to a perfect 2-0 start. I know it's easy to get excited for teams like this because the NFL is the best pro sports league in the world and only in the NFL can you have teams looking so good one season and then looking so horrible the next. Now I know this team is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in those games on the season but what the hell are they really made of is the question here? Yes their defense is top notch and yes their defense can win them games but their two wins have come against two of the most pedestrian and boring teams in the NFL, the Cleveland Bengals in Week 1 and the Cleveland Browns last week. So until they face an actual opponent I wouldn't invest too much time betting on this team. Does anyone else remember what happened to them the last time they were in Pittsburgh for the kind of game? I do. It was last season in November and the Ravens were blown right out of the water to the tune of 38-7. Typically games between these two teams would be close and could be close but the Ravens are due big time for some sort of letdown and I just don't trust their offense to sustain long enough drives in this game to give the defense a long term shot of scoring points or making enough stops to win this game. Baltimore comes into this game averaging 22.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 315.5 total yards of offense per game and averaging 4.6 yards per play in those games. Pittsburgh's defense is as tough as it gets and they have allowed only 12.7 points per game this season and in those games have allowed opponents to average only 234.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Ravens have mostly concentrated on runs up the middle as they run the ball 45.0 times per game and have averaged 190.0 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry which is not bad. However, if you plan on running the ball against the Steelers you better have a clue what to do as they have allowed only 64.3 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry in those games. Here is the problem for Baltimore. That now puts QB Joe Flacco in charge of leading this team to a win and he has completed only 58.3% of his passes this season for 258 passing yards, 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 0 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 55.7. Hahaha that's pathetic I'm sorry and I just don't know how this team can score points. The Steelers have allowed opponents this season to complete 67.0% of their passes for 4.9 yards per pass attempt which will probably bait the Ravens into letting Flacco throw the ball. BIG MISTAKE. The Ravens, as good as their offensive line is, cannot protect him and the Steelers have a whopping 10 sacks in three games this season so you can expect to come at him with blitz packages all night long. Flacco is prone to interceptions when allowed to throw and the bad news for him continues here as the Steelers have 6 interceptions on the season and they have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the NFL. Somehow the Ravens have managed to convert 42.9% of their third down chances this season and the Steelers know they have to be a lot tougher on third downs as they have allowed opponents to convert 41.0% of the time on third down this season. Like I said before, I think blitzing should do the trick and frustrate Flacco in this game. I think Baltimore is going to have to settle for field goals only the few times they manage to enter the RedZone in this game because Pittsburgh has held opponents to scoring touchdowns only 28.6% of the time in the RedZone this season and that should allow the Steelers to run away with this game. Opposing QB's have been harassed left and right this season byu the Steelers defense and they have an average QB Rating of only 60.7 in three games which leads me to once again believe that without a better passing threat, the Ravens are not going to be in a position to win this game. This is all about useless offense versus decent defense and I like the decent defense a lot better here.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are not where they want to be and I say that because nobody is talking about them, nobody is making a fuss about them and much like every other season, they are just another good team that has been consistent over the years but that has problems getting back to championship form. Well this could be the year if this team stays healthy because the AFC is in shambles right now and the Conference is wide open for the taking at this point in the season. The Steelers are off to a decent 2-1 SU start to the season but here is the problem. They are coming off a tough road loss against the Eagles last week, they are a banged up team and had it not been for all the injuries and the situation, I would be on these guys for a much larger amount than I am right now. Their early season wins over Cleveland and Houston don't really mean much to me because those are two of the worst teams in the NFL and we saw more of this team's true colors last week against the Eagles. Having said that, both RB Willie Parker and QB Ben Roethlisberger were injured in that game. Parker is 100% out for tonight's game and Big Ben is going to tough things out and play seeing how backup QB Charlie Batch is injured and this team does not have any other options right now. Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging 18.0 points per game this season and in those games this team has managed to average 255.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.8 yards per play which is quite pathetic when you are considered one of the elite teams in the NFL. I don't know that things can get much better for these guys tonight as they are going up against the #1 defense in the NFL that has allowed only 10.0 points per game to this point in the season and that has allowed only 161.5 total yards of offense per game this season on only 3.2 yards per play. On the ground, you would think Pittsburgh is screwed without the services of Willie Parker but RB Rashard Mendenhall is getting his first career NFL start and I expect him to show us what he is made of. The Steelers average 111.0 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry which is not all that great if you ask me but I do think Mendenhall is going to have a big game against a defense that has allowed 69.0 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. If the Ravens have a defensive weakness it is in their run defense and I think the Steelers should pound the ball in there 40+ times tonight to control the clock and to set things up in the air game. Big Ben has completed 65.5% of his passes this season for 454 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 99.4 on the season. The Ravens defense is as loaded and talented as it gets against the pass and they have allowed their opponents to complete only 38.7% of their passes this season for 3.0 yards per pass attempt. Having said that, the Steelers play the Ravens twice as season and if anyone knows how to get around the blitz packages and beat the pressure it has to be Big Ben and this offense. The offensive line has been horrendous for the Steelers as they have allowed 14 sacks in only three games (thats absolutely unacceptable) and have to go up against a defense that has 7 sacks in two games. We all know what's coming here and we all know Big Ben is going to try and beat those blitzes and the pressure with some screens, some running out of the pocket and some shots downfield if he has time to throw the ball. Opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of only 25.3 this season against this Ravens defense but again if anyone knows how to get around this defense it's the Steelers and Big Ben. They have converted 31.4% of their third down chances this season and have managed to score touchdowns in 75.0% of their RedZone entries. Scoring touchdowns and not field goals is going to be the key in this game and even if they get to fourth down and less than five yards in the RedZone, I think the Steelers are going to go for it and they should go for it. The Steelers special teams have not done anything special yet this season but this could be their turnaround game and I expect them to come out and feed of this hometown crowd against a divisional opponent they need to beat. Even though he has felt pressure from all sides, Big Ben has not succumbed and has not thrown the interceptions he would have thrown the last few season. I like Mendenhall a lot and I think he can have a huge game in this one. Steelers win this game and win this game big...well sorta.
You know what guys. Yes time off in the NFL is precious and yes BYE WEEKS are golden and critical when it comes to a team recovering in time for the home stretch of the long regular season but having said that, the Ravens never really needed their week off because of the Hurricane and it was a bit of a waste of time. You would think the Steelers and the Eagles are in the same boat this week because both lost their star running backs last week and both have to find a way to replace them on short notice this week. The Eagles don't have a valuable backup option but the Steelers sure do with an outstanding rookie RB in Mendenhall who is already talking trash and already geared up for a huge matchup against this ferocious defense of the Ravens. The public is once again on the Steelers in this game and that has been a recipe for disaster the last two or three times (that game a few weeks ago was brutal against the Browns, way too many bullshit play calls on both sides). However, Baltimore is only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games versus AFC opponents and they have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 27 road games which is horrendous. Pittsburgh on the other hand is due for a bounce back game coming off that loss to the Eagles and I expect them continue the trend of going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games coming off a straight up loss. The Steelers have not played well on Monday Nights but they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games and I think their defenses shows up coming up with some big plays to give the offense the field position they need here. WAIVE THOSE TOWELS!!!
Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 6
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:toast:
RECAP
Minnesota +3
Tampa Bay -1
Washington +11 ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Chicago +3 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Pittsburgh -5
I went 5-2 ATS in college football yesterday, should have been 6-1 ATS with the Ohio State backdoor loss bullshit but nonetheless I'm happy with the way my capping has come around.
I hate the first two weeks of both NFL and CFB football and it showed. I am off to a sizzling start to my College Football week as I reverted back to an old capping style of mine that brought me some huge cash over the last few seasons. I was in Buffalo all weekend last week and did not have time post so there is no record even though I nailed my Sunday plays and went 1-1 in the two primetime games. Back to my old capping style, check this out.
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Sunday, September 28
Minnesota Vikings +3 (10 Units)
The Minnesota Vikings have screwed me over a couple of times now the last two seasons but they are lucky I forget fast because I am right back on their asses this week looking for money. After losing to both Green Bay and Indianapolis (two games they probably could have won with more effective play calling on offense), the Vikings came out last week and shocked just about everyone with their 20-10 win as a -3.5 point home favorite. Well I wouldn't call it shocking win because this team was due but the emphasis all week has been on momentum and how important it is to make it to 2-2 and not fall to 1-3 in a division that will probably only get tougher as the season moves along. I don't think it's a coincidence that the team won with a fresh QB change and old man Gus Frerotte running the show. He has a lot of experience and the offense was run with more efficiency in that game. Minnesota went down 10-0 in that game and the fans started panicking. Tarvaris Jackson was actually being talked about on some radio talk shows this week but only to say that there is little or no chance of him returning as the starter of this team in 2008. Frerotte has the job for now and the Vikings badly need to win this game if they want to keep a decent pace in a division that is proving to be one of the best in the NFL. Minnesota comes into this game averaging 18.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 319.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games which is not all that great. Tennessee has one of the most solid (and maybe untested) defenses in the NFL as they have allowed only 9.7 points per game this season and allowed only 240.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, we all know what RB Adrian Peterson is capable of and he has led this team to 162.0 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry this season. Tennessee has allowed only 89.0 rushing yards per game on the year but they have allowed 3.7 yards per carry and teams have run on them only 24.3 times per game which is not much at all. Expect a ton of AP in this game. In the air, QB Gus Frerotte lives to see another day as he saved the season last week and he has now completed 57.1% of his passes this season for 204 passing yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception with a 77.1 QB Rating on the season. Tennessee has allowed opposing teams to complete 56.6% of their passes on the season for 4.6 yards per pass attempt. The main concern for this team is going to be the protection Frerotte gets because in three games this season the Vikings have allowed 7 sacks while the Titans have a mean pass rush that has yielded 11 sacks in three games. If Peterson is used in different formations, this team can avoid the sacks and keep the chains moving. The Titans also have 7 interceptions in their three games this season which is why I don't think we see Frerotte taking too many risks downfield. What I do like about Minnesota is that despite running the ball so much they have fumbled only 1 time and lost that fumble this season. The Vikings have had all sorts of problems in the RedZone this season scoring touchdowns in only 14.3% of their visits to the land of glory and that just won't do in a game like this. I know the crowd is going to be super loud and I know the Titans have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns only 25.0% of the time in the Redzone this season but Peterson is my x-factor and I like the matchup problems he brings to the Tennessee table. Opponents have converted only 26.2% of their third down chances against this defense and it's important for Frerotte to keep the chains moving and eat up as much clock as possible. I think Peterson is going to have a huge game and I really like Frerotte to show poise and experience in a hostile environment as he should do all the small things right to win this game. WR Sidney Rice is back this week and the Vikings come in with the momentum they have so desperately needed all season.
The Tennessee Titans are somewhat of a surprise team (amongst a few others) in the AFC this season as they are off to an impressive 3-0 SU start to the season. Not only have they won all the games they have played but they have been a betting sweetheart with their 3-0 ATS record as well. Their wins over Jacksonville, Cincinnati and Houston are good wins but is anyone all that impressed by the quality of teams they have faced so far this season? I'm not impressed at all for the simple fact that those teams are a combined 1-7 SU this season and the level of quality in their opponents has been missing. The Vikings are by far the toughest test this team is going to face before hitting the middle part of the season (most crucial time in the NFL season) and apart from Jacksonville's rushing attack in Week 1, I don't think the Titans know what they have coming on the ground in this game. The Titans have been home all week, probably getting a little too cozy in their environments for my liking, and they are coming off an impressive 31-12 home win over the Houston Texans as -4.5 point favorites in that game. The only team to have outyarded the Titans this season was Cincinnati and that was only in the passing department and that's it (well they did play from behind all game so what do you expect?). The fans booing Vince Young off the field looks to have been a blessing in disguise if you ask me. Tennessee comes into this game averaging a very decent 24.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 315.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games. So hold on a second here. Tennessee offense has not been as good or effective as Minnesota's offense? Wow. I guess the Titans defense has really forced a lot of turnovers. Minnesota's defense continues to be underrated in the eyes of the public bettor because the Vikings have allowed 280.7 total yards of offense per game this season and they have allowed only 5.3 yards per play and only 17.3 points per game in those games. On the ground is probably where this battle is going to be won or lost for both these teams. Tennessee comes into the game averaging 156.0 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry in those games and they actually have to face one of the NFL's best run defenses in Minnesota that has allowed only 70.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry against RB's like Joseph Addai and Ryan Grant. That is going to force Tennessee to throw a lot more than they have all season as QB Kerry Collins has completed 61.2% of his passes this season for 382 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 90.7 on the season. Having said that, I think the Titans are a bit too stubborn to pass the ball and why not pass against this Vikings defense that has allowed opposing teams to complete 65.6% of their passes this season for 6.8 yards per pass attempt? Well I don't think the Vikings mind if the Titans let Collins take some deep shots because he has been interception prone in the past and the Vikings believe they can get enough pressure on him to force huge mistakes. The Tennessee QBs have been sacked only 2 times this season but Minnesota's pass rush has some gems and they have already amassed 7 sacks in three games. The more pressure they bring in this game, the more they stall the Titans offense if you ask me. The Titans as a team have thrown 3 interceptions and they have fumbled the ball 4 times (losing 2 of those fumbles in the process). Even though they have recovered only two fumbles this season, this Vikings defense is aggressive and they will take some chances having forced 5 fumbles in three games. Its not like Tennessee is going to dominate the Vikings on all fronts and even though they have converted a very decent 30.8% of their third down chances this season, Minnesota has allowed opponents to convert only 36.1% of their third down passes on the season and I don't see this factoring into the outcome. RB Chris Johnson has been at the center of this offense all season but the rookie will hit a brick wall when he faces this run defense and that is when Kerry Collins will be called into action and asked to do a lot more than he can handle on a regular basis. The Vikings defense is going to force turnovers in this game and they are going to once again put their offense in a position to win the game. I don't like the Titans or their running game in this matchup.
I'm sorry but the Tennessee Titans are not about to go 4-0 to start the season, I don't really care what anyone says. Sure things have been all nice and simple for them to this point but I am ready to call for a straight up loss here. All I keep hearing about is the Tennessee defense this, the Tennessee defense that but what about the Minnesota defense that is getting better with time? What people don't realize is that if the offense was even a little bit effective, the Vikings defense would not allow more than 10 points per game. This is a great AFC versus NFC matchup that I have rated as the 2nd most entertaining and intriguing game of the weekend. Please consider this when placing your wagers for this game. Yes the Tennessee Titans are off to an unbeaten start but the teams they have wins against are a combined 1-7 SU on the season. Yuck. Minnesota has not been a good team to bet on this season or late last season going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. However, they are the kind of team that plays up or down to their opponent's level which is why they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Tennessee has been a horrendous Week 4 team over the years (this is usually their letdown game) going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Week 4 games. I like Adrian Peterson and Gus Frerotte to win on the road and pull to .500 in this game.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 4 of the season.
Minnesota 23, Tennessee 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (10 Units)
The Green Bay Packers had it all. After two weeks of the early NFL season that had so many question marks just a few weeks ago the Packers were off to an impressive 2-0 SU start with new WB Aaron Rodgers at the helms. Well the party sorta came to a halt last weekend on Sunday Night Football when the Dallas Cowboys easily walked into Lambeau Field and beat the Packers 26-17. The only road game Green Bay has played this season was against the second worst team in the NFL the Detroit Lions and that was an easy 48-25 win (a game the Packers actually trailed mid-fourth quarter if you can believed that). This is going to be this team's very first game without outstanding CB Al Harris who is out for the season with a ruptures spleen. I know one player doesn't make a football team but Harris is the leader in the secondary and the Packers don't have much time to adjust. The last time Green Bay was in Raymond James Stadium was back in 2003 when they won 20-13. Having said that, they have played here a total of 6 times since the 1998 season and that win in 2005 was their one and only win during that period of time. So the Packers are 1-5 SU in Tampa Bay since 1998 going 2-4 ATS in those games. The Green Bay Packers come into this game averaging 29.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 366.0 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.2 yards per play in those games. They are going up against a Tampa Bay defense that has taken an unusual route this season and approached games with a 'risk-reward' strategy. As a result of this approach they have allowed 19.0 points per game no the season and in those games they have also allowed 359.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Ryan Grant continues to run well in his sophomore season and he has led the team to 115.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. The Bucs defense is going to be ready for anything Green Bay has to throw at them in this game as they have allowed only 121.3 rushing yards per game this season for 4.0 yards per carry which is not that bad. In the air, QB Aaron Rodgers has been fantastic completing 64.6% of his passes for 796 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a 102.9 QB Rating on the season. What more could you ask for really? On that note, Rodgers should have some success passing against a defense that has allowed opponents to complete 58.6% of their passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. But here is the deal. I talked about the high risk defense approach Tampa has taken this season and that approach, although it look bad on paper stats wise, has generated 8 sacks in three games and has generated 5 interceptions to go along with those sacks. I think Rodgers has yet to feel pressure the way he is going to feel pressure in this game and in turn for me that should result in a few interceptions that could potentially change this game. The Packers offensive line has allowed Rodgers to be sacked 6 times in three games so yeah I'm expecting the Bucs to come at him hard. The Packers are 2-1 on the season but you won't stay 2-1 very long if you keep turning over the ball. The Packers have fumbled a whopping 7 times this season recovering 5 of those fumbles. Green Bay has been very good on third downs this season (completing 42.6% of their third down conversions) and they have also been very good in the RedZone (scoring touchdowns 60.0% of the time they go in there this season) but all of that won't matter here because Tampa Bay will feed off the energy of the home crowd and the Bucs have allowed their opponents this season to complete only 34.0% of their third down chances and have allowed those same opponents to score touchdowns only 25.0% of the time when entering the RedZone. Green Bay has taken 9.3 penalties per game this season resulting in a whopping 82.7 penalty yards per game which is almost a full field and a touchdown for Tampa Bay. I think the Buccaneers defense is really going to clamp down in this game and I think they are going to come after Rodgers with everything they have expecting him to make mistakes and turn over the ball. The kid has been good but this defense is experienced. Green Bay will win game this season but not here, not now.
The Tampa Bay Buccanners should actually be 3-0 SU right now if you ask me because I watched most of their season opening game in New Orleans and they led most of the way before screwing things up in the late going and allowing Drew Brees to pretty much unload on them for four point win as +3 point underdogs. I don't know about you guys but I have been impressed with this team in all three of their games as they followed up that loss with a 24-9 home win over the Atlanta Falcons (nothing special but it's still a spread covering win) and then went to Chicago last week for a battle of the defenses, winning in overtime 27-24. So there is no doubt in anyone's that the team picked by many experts to win the Division are carrying some serious momentum coming into this game. The good news doesn't stop there as Tampa Bay escaped the first three games without any serious injuries to their starters (something that has hampered this team for the last few seasons) and everyone on both sides of the ball seems to be healthy. The Bucs last played against Green Bay in 2005 at Lambeau Field where they managed to beat Favre and his crew 17-16 in one heck of a football game. So it has been three seasons and many new faces later and I think we see the Buccaneers continue the trend of playing well at home. Tampa Bay comes into this game averaging 23.7 points per game this season and even though that is not as much as Green Bay, they do average more yards per game than the Packers as they have amassed 372.3 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.5 yards per play in those games. The Packers defense has not been all that impressive this season and they do lose CB Al Harris for the season as they have allowed 23.7 points per game this season and have also allowed 373.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Earnest Graham continues to impress as he has led this team 119.0 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry with RB Warrick Dunn as his backup and option on second or third downs. I think Graham and Dunn are going to have a huge game where they control movement at the line scrimmage and I say that because the Packers dread playing a good running team having already allowed 151.0 rushing yards per game this season on a whopping 5.7 yards per carry. Should the Bucs need to pass the ball, QB Brian Griese is ready and he has completed 57.1% of his passes this season for 567 passing yards, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and a QB Rating of 71.3 on the season. Not bad but not great so don't be surprised to see QB Jeff Garcia back out there at some point. Regardless, the loss of Al Harris is huge for this secondary because they had allowed opponents to complete only 50.5% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt and now they have a huge hole to fill. The key against Green Bay is to have good pass protection because they come at you hard and they already have 9 sacks in three games. The Bucs offensive line has been fantastic clearing the way for Graham and they have allowed only 4 sacks in three games which should give Griese time to work. That kind of pressure has led Green Bay to 5 interceptions on the season so the more Tampa Bay keeps things on the ground, the more they have a chance. The Bucs have lost only 2 fumbles this season but it won't matter much here because the Packers are not aggressive tacklers and they have recovered only 1 fumble in three games this season. The Buccaneers are converting 33.3% of their third down chances this season but I see them having a bit more success here as the Packers defense has allowed a lot of big third down plays and their opponents this season have converted 38.1% of their third down chances. The key for the Tampa Bay offense in this game is to score touchdowns in the RedZone and not settle for field goals. That will include taking risks on 4th down but it doesn't matter, you're at home, with you fans and your defense so you have nothing to lose. If Tampa Bay can stay away from taking penalties and getting involved with some Green Bay boneheads, you can expect them to run the ball with a lot of success here (Graham should hit at least 140 yards in this one), which controls the clock and puts them in a position to win at home. I like them a lot here.
The line opened with a -2.5 for Tampa Bay and I was willing to pound away. The line has since dropped to -1 and I am all over this bad boy. Are you kidding me? I guess the Green Bay Packers are going to be a cappers sweetheart most of this season and I say that because I remember the experts being all over them in all three of their games so far. Dallas taught this team a nice little season last week and again if you look back at the Minnesota and Detroit games, the Packers could have easily lost either one of those games allowing both teams to make furious comebacks in the late going of the game. The big knock for me on this Green Bay team is that they cannot and have not stopped the run this season which is a big problem when you play on the road against teams who can run the ball. Green Bay has been one of the best bounce back teams over the last few seasons when coming off a loss as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight following an ATS loss. Having said that, those were with Brett Favre (captain heart) playing and now he's gone. Green Bay is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games which is impressive but they are only 4-9-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay is a very good home team that has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 home games and as long as they can run the ball effectively, their defense will dominate and they will win this game a lot easier than people think.
Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Tampa Bay 19, Green Bay 12
Washington Redskins +11 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Washington Redskins have been on thin ice with their fans for the last few seasons but all that was supposed to have been taken care of when head coach Joe Gibbs was replaced in the off-season and now this team had no more excuses for underachieving. Well the Redskins came out of gates stumbling yet again this season as they lost the season opening game on National TV to the NY Giants by a score of 16-7 but I guess that game really ignited them and this team has not looked back since. The Redskins have since played two home games where they smashed the the New Orleans Saints 29-24 as a -1 point home favorite in their home opener and they followed that up with an impressive 24-17 win last week at home over the Arizona Cardinals as -3 point home favorites. Now comes a huge divisional matchup against the best team in the NFL the Dallas Cowboys and the experts have already predicted the Redskins get blown out of the water here. How can you possibly predict that when Washington came very close to beating Dallas twice last season (winning at home and losing only 28-23 here in Dallas). Apart from their September 2006 loss in this place, the Redskins have really played the Cowboys tight in all their games as they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and have straight up won some games here in the past. I know LB Jason Taylor is out for the Skins but their defense is good enough to replace him and I think they have a shot here. The Redskins come into this game averaging 20.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 329.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per carry and they will need everything they can to win this game. Dallas has allowed opponents to score 21.0 points per game this season and in those games they have managed to allow 292.0 total yards of offense per game but it could have been worse seeing how they allow 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Clinton Portis has not hit any home runs yet this season but he has led this team to 123.0 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry this season. He is going up against a Dallas defense that is actually beatable on the ground as they have allowed 84.3 rushing yards per game (teams only run on them 20.7 times per game for some reason) and 4.1 yards per carry which gives the Skins some room to have second and third downs on short yardage situations. In the air, QB Jason Campbell has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 passing yards, 7.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a QB Rating of 100.1 on the season. Hold on, is this the same Jason Campbell that passed for 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season? Wow what a change. He is going up against a Cowboys defense that has yet to impress me as they have allowed their opponents to complete 58.0% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. What Dallas does well is pressure quarterbacks because they do have a whopping 10 sacks in three games this season but that's not a problem because Washington's offensive line is solid and they have allowed only 5 sacks in three games. For a defense that is supposed to be one of the best in the NFL, the Cowboys have not really made any big plays this season as they come into this game with 0 interceptions in three games and only 2 recovered fumbles on the season. Opposing QB's have earned a QB Rating of 83.0 which is quite high for an elite team in this league. The Redskins offense is not flashy and they have converted only 31.4% of their third down chances this season but they do have a great RedZone presence and they rarely settle for field goals when they have the chance to take six and an extra. Washington has scored touchdowns in 60.0% of their RedZone chances while Dallas has allowed touchdowns in 50.0% of their opponents trips to the RedZone. As long as Clinton Portis can move those chains and setup some second and third down short yardage situations, Campbell is going to shine and I predict he finds WR Santana Moss on a deep route once or twice to change this game. Love the Skins here.
The Dallas Cowboys are the best team in the NFL. Period. Okay but that doesn't mean they are going to win every game they play by 20+ points and I have actually not been all that impressed by the way these guys have played. I talked about this before the Philadelphia game and I talked about it again before the Green Bay game last week. For whatever reason the last few seasons the Dallas Cowboys have been a much better team away from home and they have faltered and lost games like this one in front of their hometown fans. I actually thought Cleveland had a chance to give them a run for their money in the opening week of the season but I was wrong and Dallas won easily 28-10 on the road. The Cowboys then returned home and allowed 37 points against Philadelphia in a 41-37 loss which again goes to show their lack of efficiency in home games. I was however on Dallas last week when they went to Green Bay and had no problems taking care of business in a 27-16 win at Lambeau. On the injury front the Cowboys have managed to stay quite healthy but I am still a bit worried about the fact that S Roy Williams is out for most of the season. Williams was a guy with leadership you really want playing in rivalry games like this one and his absence, although not felt last week, could play a huge factor into the game this week. Dallas comes into this game averaging a whopping and NFL leading 32.0 points per game this season and in those games they have managed to get 440.0 total yards of offense and averaged a crazy 7.2 yards per play in those games. Washington's defense is playing under the watchful and heavenly eyes of Sean Taylor and they have allowed only 19.0 points per game this season (after playing against the Giants and Saints which is not bad at all). They have also allowed only 305.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and allowed 5.3 yards per play which is pretty damn good considering who they have faced. We all know Dallas can run the ball and they have proved it early as they come into this game averaging 150.7 rushing yards per game this season on 5.0 yards per carry in those games. I don't know about Washington's run defense because they have allowed some big plays this season and are allowing 108.3 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. This will be their first true test of the season against Barber and Felix Jones. In the air, QB Tony Romo has completed 67.4% of his passes this season for 892 passing yards, 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and a QB Rating of 103.2 on the season. Not bad at all if you ask me. Having said that, the Washington defense is actually quite solid and they have allowed opponents to complete only 58.6% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt on the season. The offensive line has done a great job allowing only three sacks all season but things could be a little stickier in this game as Washington's defense has 6 sacks in three games and they will bring pressure from all sides. This same defense also has 4 interceptions in those games to go along with 2 recovered fumbles and 3 forced fumbles which is not too bad and which goes to show how aggressive they can be at times. Opposing QB's have averaged a QB Rating of only 69.1 on the season and I expect Romo to have all sorts of problems stalling nice drives at midfield. Dallas has been lucky not to turn the ball over more as they have fumbled 6 times in three games but have lost only 2 of those six fumbles. They are one of the best third down teams in the NFL having completed 60% of their third down chances this season and Washington has allowed opponents to complete 42.6% of their third down chances on the season. That should allow Dallas to move the chains and score some points but the question is will they be touchdowns or field goals. Dallas is scoring touchdowns only 53.6% of the time once in the RedZone this season and they'll have to be a lot better than that if they expect to win games by large margins. Special teams are going to be huge in this game because we all know how Felix Jones can return kickoffs and the rookie won't back down. The good thing is Washington has allowed only 19.5 yards per kickoff return this season and their coverage teams are good. Dallas is going to score points in this game but I like the Redskins defense to make some huge plays of their own at some point to help the offense with field position. Not today Dallas.
Vegas makes me laugh sometimes. This game has nothing to do with what either team has done all season and this game has nothing to do with what anyone else has done all season. However, the oddsmakers try to make us think this is one of those joe blow games where the best team in the NFL just walks in here and demolishes a team that has no business winning this game. WELL NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! What about the rivalry, what about the hatred, what about the divisional game atmosphere? I mean does that make any sense to anyone else that oddsmakers are completely ignoring all these intangibles? I have talked about this way too many times in the past but penalties and discipline will decide close divisional games like this one. Washington is averaging only 3.7 penalties per game this season which has cost them only 20.3 penalty yards while the Dallas Cowboys have lacked discipline big time and taken a whopping 9.3 penalties per game this season on 81.3 penalty yards per game. WOW! We saw this be a factor in the Georgia-Alabama game yesterday. Washington lives to play against teams like Dallas as they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games versus teams with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last eight versus NFC opponents. I know Dallas is on fire right now but did you know that they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus the NFC East and 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus just NFC opponents? The Underdog is a whopping 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings and that is enough for me to grab these damn points and bring them home. Washington with the upset is what I'm looking at.
Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these teams.
Washington 28, Dallas 24
Chicago Bears +3 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***The Philadelphia Eagles have earned the public respect of cappers because of the way they have started their season but how quickly a lot of people forget how the NFL actually works. You can look great one week against a certain team because the matchup is good and the situation is right but you can look just as bad the next week against a weaker opponent that has a better matchup in terms of setup. The Eagles are coming off an impressive 15-6 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. As impressive as that win was, Willie Parker and Big Ben were playing hurt or not at all in that game and you have to remember that this is the same team that allowed 41 points the week before against the Dallas Cowboys. Having said that, the Eagles also got to play the St. Louis Rams in Week 1 of the season so they have yet to really be tested by a true in-conference defense although the Steelers are as good as it gets in the NFL. The road team has dominated this series for as long as I can remember and the Eagles have not lost in the Windy City since the 1995 season. However, mister X-Factor himself RB Brian Westbrook is probably out for tonight's game and without Westbrook the dynamics of this offense change a lot and the Bears defense can now afford to take risks and come after McNabb with everything they have here. There will be no holding back in tonight's game I can promise you that. Philadelphia comes into this game averaging 30.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 373.0 total yards of offense and a whopping 5.8 yards per play in those games. Chicago's defense is finally healthy this season and they have allowed 20.0 points per game on the year but have also allowed only 321.0 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 4.8 yards per play in those games. I somehow don't think the Eagles will drop any big plays in this game. On the ground, the Eagles struggled with or without Westbrook as they average only 83.7 rushing yards per game on the season on 3.2 yards per carry. The Bears defense has allowed only 71.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.4 yards per carry but the point here is that without Westbrook, all eyes are on McNabb for this defense and #54 knows what grill he is knocking out tonight. In the air, McNabb has completed 66.7% of his passes this season for 838 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 102.8 (the best numbers he has shown in years). This Chicago defense probably doesn't give a rats ass as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.4% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season. Yes that sounds like a lot of yardage and it is but this defense is a risk equals reward kind of defense and they do make some huge plays. The offensive line has been a problem for the Eagles as they have allowed 7 sacks in three games so what the hell are they going to do tonight when they face a Bears defense that has the potential to disrupt any QB's playing abilities in a game? Sure the Bears have only 5 sacks this season but they do have 4 interceptions to go along with those sacks and they have recovered 2 fumbles which shows signs of an aggressive defense. The reason the Eagles have been so successful this season is because they have converted 47.5% of their third down chances but that is not going to take them anywhere in this game as the Bears defense has held their opponents to a 32.5% conversion rate on third downs this season. Philadelphia is not that good in the RedZone, scoring touchdowns only 53.8% of the time they have been there and the Bears are equally the same on defense as opponents are scoring touchdowns only 50.0% of the time from inside the RedZone. The Eagles offense has been one of the best in the NFL this season but the Bears have a lot of potential and they will probably pull out all stops in this game knowing they can afford to with the Eagles missing one of their big weapons. The Chicago defense has held opposing QB's to an average QB Rating of 68.7 this season and if McNabb can only play at that level against this defense, he won't have a chance to win this game. I am a huge fan of this defense and I think they get the job done.
The Chicago Bears are off to a 1-2 start on the season but believe me when I say they are better than that and believe me when I say that we have not seen the best this team has to offer. On that note, I am placing a huge wager on these guys tonight knowing that the home crowd is going to be as loud as it has been in years and knowing that live home underdogs have been huge cash money this season on National TV in both college football and pro football. It seems like everyone already forgot about Chicago's impressive 29-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 of this season (on the road for that matter) but that's probably because all they can see is the Bears Week 2 loss to Carolina (in stunning fashion at the end) and in Week 3 once again another stunning loss late in the game this time to Tampa Bay. Make no mistake about it, Tampa Bay is a very good team and there is no shame in losing to them. The Bears could very well be 3-0 SU to start the season but now it's time to recover. They are 1-0-1 ATS as underdogs this season and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs if you go back to last season with their only loss coming against the Giants earlier in the year. Like I said before, this Bears team is very healthy right now with no huge injuries to speak of, although Devin Hester did miss last week's game and there is a chance he could be out once again this week. Chicago comes into this game averaging a very decent 23.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 326.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games. Philadelphia's defense has actually been quite solid this season allowing only 16.7 points per game on the year and in those games they have allowed only 242.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground is where the Bears are going to win this game. Led by rookie RB Matt Forte, this team finally has something going for them in terms of ground game as they average a whopping 152.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry in those games. The Eagles have not faced a true running game this season as Willie Parker got hurt last week, the Rams suck and Dallas was too busy throwing the ball trying to catchup. Because of that, their defense is a bit overrated and they have allowed only 45.7 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 2.7 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Kyle Orton has completed 62.1% of his passes this season for 567 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 79.0 on the season which needs to improve right here and right now. I say that because Orton should have room to operate against an Eagles defense that has allowed a ton of big plays this season. The Eagles are allowing opponents to complete 59.1% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt but they do bring a ton of pressure and the Bears have to be ready for it. The matchups have to be right tonight because the offensive line has allowed 6 sacks in only three games and the Eagles lead the NFL right now with a whopping 13 sacks in only three games this season. Orton is not a mobile QB and he will not escape the pass rush which is why he needs a two step drop and pop or some sort plan to make the screen pass work in this game. Despite all that pressure, the Eagles have not been all that opportunistic on defense with only 2 interceptions in three games and only 2 recovered fumbles in those same games. Chicago really needs to find a way to stay disciplined in this game because they already average a whopping 9.0 penalties per game this season and that is not going to work against an Eagles team that has been a lot more composed and that is averaging only 5.3 penalties per game this season. You have to be impressed with Orton and the way he has played on third downs this season as the Bears have managed to convert 43.5% of their third down conversion chances this season but things may not come as easily tonight against an Eagles defense that has allowed opponents to convert only 23.5% of the time on third downs this season. The key for me here is going to be Chicago's play in the RedZone where they have scored touchdowns 50.0% of the time this season and the Eagles have been horrendous in the RedZone defensively allowing their opponents to score touchdowns 60.0% of the time in those same games. If Hester is ready to go for this game I think he will get his first return TD of the season on special teams because the Eagles coverage on kick returns has been a disaster and they have allowed opponents to return kicks for an average of almost 30 yards each time which is way too much against Hester and his capabilities. I like the combination of Matt Forte and Kyle Orton to get some help from the defense in this game as they control the clock, make some huge plays on defense and win this game at home for the fans who really deserve a big win.
THE PUBLIC SHEEP HAVE GATHERED AND THEIR WAGER IS ON PHILADELPHIA! I didn't mean to shout or anything but just thought I would let you guys know that the majority here is on the Eagles and that majority is completely ignoring the fact that RB Brian Westbrook is probably out for the game tonight (I capped this with him out of the lineup) and they are also completely disrespecting the Bears at home with this kind of defense, a healthy one at that. I mean we are almost at 70% with how much the public like the Eagles tonight but as I mentioned before, all they really did was play against a banged up Pittsburgh team, beat the crap out of the worst teams in the NFL the St. Louis Rams and get lit up defensively by the Dallas Cowboys on National TV. So as impressive as you think they have been, you better think again because this Bears defense is not about to let these guys do anything against them at home. Philadelphia has been one of the most profitable teams to bet in recent years on the road as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games and they have cashed huge for people who tail them. Having said that, the Eagles have always been a team that plays down to their opponents expected level and I think they struggle on both sides of the ball tonight. Chicago has covered the spread only 4 times in their last 14 home games but I do like them coming off an ATS loss as they are 5-1 ATS in that situation in their last six games. The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and nothing should change this time around. I like the Bears on National TV.
Trend of the Game: Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games that follow a straight up loss.
Chicago 23, Philadelphia 13
Monday, September 29
Pittsburgh Steelers -5 (5 Units)
The Baltimore Ravens have the NFL world wondering wtf is really going on when a no-name QB walks into a situation, is named the starter and leads a team to a perfect 2-0 start. I know it's easy to get excited for teams like this because the NFL is the best pro sports league in the world and only in the NFL can you have teams looking so good one season and then looking so horrible the next. Now I know this team is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in those games on the season but what the hell are they really made of is the question here? Yes their defense is top notch and yes their defense can win them games but their two wins have come against two of the most pedestrian and boring teams in the NFL, the Cleveland Bengals in Week 1 and the Cleveland Browns last week. So until they face an actual opponent I wouldn't invest too much time betting on this team. Does anyone else remember what happened to them the last time they were in Pittsburgh for the kind of game? I do. It was last season in November and the Ravens were blown right out of the water to the tune of 38-7. Typically games between these two teams would be close and could be close but the Ravens are due big time for some sort of letdown and I just don't trust their offense to sustain long enough drives in this game to give the defense a long term shot of scoring points or making enough stops to win this game. Baltimore comes into this game averaging 22.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 315.5 total yards of offense per game and averaging 4.6 yards per play in those games. Pittsburgh's defense is as tough as it gets and they have allowed only 12.7 points per game this season and in those games have allowed opponents to average only 234.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Ravens have mostly concentrated on runs up the middle as they run the ball 45.0 times per game and have averaged 190.0 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry which is not bad. However, if you plan on running the ball against the Steelers you better have a clue what to do as they have allowed only 64.3 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry in those games. Here is the problem for Baltimore. That now puts QB Joe Flacco in charge of leading this team to a win and he has completed only 58.3% of his passes this season for 258 passing yards, 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 0 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 55.7. Hahaha that's pathetic I'm sorry and I just don't know how this team can score points. The Steelers have allowed opponents this season to complete 67.0% of their passes for 4.9 yards per pass attempt which will probably bait the Ravens into letting Flacco throw the ball. BIG MISTAKE. The Ravens, as good as their offensive line is, cannot protect him and the Steelers have a whopping 10 sacks in three games this season so you can expect to come at him with blitz packages all night long. Flacco is prone to interceptions when allowed to throw and the bad news for him continues here as the Steelers have 6 interceptions on the season and they have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the NFL. Somehow the Ravens have managed to convert 42.9% of their third down chances this season and the Steelers know they have to be a lot tougher on third downs as they have allowed opponents to convert 41.0% of the time on third down this season. Like I said before, I think blitzing should do the trick and frustrate Flacco in this game. I think Baltimore is going to have to settle for field goals only the few times they manage to enter the RedZone in this game because Pittsburgh has held opponents to scoring touchdowns only 28.6% of the time in the RedZone this season and that should allow the Steelers to run away with this game. Opposing QB's have been harassed left and right this season byu the Steelers defense and they have an average QB Rating of only 60.7 in three games which leads me to once again believe that without a better passing threat, the Ravens are not going to be in a position to win this game. This is all about useless offense versus decent defense and I like the decent defense a lot better here.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are not where they want to be and I say that because nobody is talking about them, nobody is making a fuss about them and much like every other season, they are just another good team that has been consistent over the years but that has problems getting back to championship form. Well this could be the year if this team stays healthy because the AFC is in shambles right now and the Conference is wide open for the taking at this point in the season. The Steelers are off to a decent 2-1 SU start to the season but here is the problem. They are coming off a tough road loss against the Eagles last week, they are a banged up team and had it not been for all the injuries and the situation, I would be on these guys for a much larger amount than I am right now. Their early season wins over Cleveland and Houston don't really mean much to me because those are two of the worst teams in the NFL and we saw more of this team's true colors last week against the Eagles. Having said that, both RB Willie Parker and QB Ben Roethlisberger were injured in that game. Parker is 100% out for tonight's game and Big Ben is going to tough things out and play seeing how backup QB Charlie Batch is injured and this team does not have any other options right now. Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging 18.0 points per game this season and in those games this team has managed to average 255.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.8 yards per play which is quite pathetic when you are considered one of the elite teams in the NFL. I don't know that things can get much better for these guys tonight as they are going up against the #1 defense in the NFL that has allowed only 10.0 points per game to this point in the season and that has allowed only 161.5 total yards of offense per game this season on only 3.2 yards per play. On the ground, you would think Pittsburgh is screwed without the services of Willie Parker but RB Rashard Mendenhall is getting his first career NFL start and I expect him to show us what he is made of. The Steelers average 111.0 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry which is not all that great if you ask me but I do think Mendenhall is going to have a big game against a defense that has allowed 69.0 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. If the Ravens have a defensive weakness it is in their run defense and I think the Steelers should pound the ball in there 40+ times tonight to control the clock and to set things up in the air game. Big Ben has completed 65.5% of his passes this season for 454 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 99.4 on the season. The Ravens defense is as loaded and talented as it gets against the pass and they have allowed their opponents to complete only 38.7% of their passes this season for 3.0 yards per pass attempt. Having said that, the Steelers play the Ravens twice as season and if anyone knows how to get around the blitz packages and beat the pressure it has to be Big Ben and this offense. The offensive line has been horrendous for the Steelers as they have allowed 14 sacks in only three games (thats absolutely unacceptable) and have to go up against a defense that has 7 sacks in two games. We all know what's coming here and we all know Big Ben is going to try and beat those blitzes and the pressure with some screens, some running out of the pocket and some shots downfield if he has time to throw the ball. Opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of only 25.3 this season against this Ravens defense but again if anyone knows how to get around this defense it's the Steelers and Big Ben. They have converted 31.4% of their third down chances this season and have managed to score touchdowns in 75.0% of their RedZone entries. Scoring touchdowns and not field goals is going to be the key in this game and even if they get to fourth down and less than five yards in the RedZone, I think the Steelers are going to go for it and they should go for it. The Steelers special teams have not done anything special yet this season but this could be their turnaround game and I expect them to come out and feed of this hometown crowd against a divisional opponent they need to beat. Even though he has felt pressure from all sides, Big Ben has not succumbed and has not thrown the interceptions he would have thrown the last few season. I like Mendenhall a lot and I think he can have a huge game in this one. Steelers win this game and win this game big...well sorta.
You know what guys. Yes time off in the NFL is precious and yes BYE WEEKS are golden and critical when it comes to a team recovering in time for the home stretch of the long regular season but having said that, the Ravens never really needed their week off because of the Hurricane and it was a bit of a waste of time. You would think the Steelers and the Eagles are in the same boat this week because both lost their star running backs last week and both have to find a way to replace them on short notice this week. The Eagles don't have a valuable backup option but the Steelers sure do with an outstanding rookie RB in Mendenhall who is already talking trash and already geared up for a huge matchup against this ferocious defense of the Ravens. The public is once again on the Steelers in this game and that has been a recipe for disaster the last two or three times (that game a few weeks ago was brutal against the Browns, way too many bullshit play calls on both sides). However, Baltimore is only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games versus AFC opponents and they have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 27 road games which is horrendous. Pittsburgh on the other hand is due for a bounce back game coming off that loss to the Eagles and I expect them continue the trend of going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games coming off a straight up loss. The Steelers have not played well on Monday Nights but they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games and I think their defenses shows up coming up with some big plays to give the offense the field position they need here. WAIVE THOSE TOWELS!!!
Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 6
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:toast:
RECAP
Minnesota +3
Tampa Bay -1
Washington +11 ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Chicago +3 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Pittsburgh -5
I went 5-2 ATS in college football yesterday, should have been 6-1 ATS with the Ohio State backdoor loss bullshit but nonetheless I'm happy with the way my capping has come around.
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