MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 39-29-3 ATS (+283.00 Units)
Can you believe the end of that Giants game last night? 50 Units in the bank! That was something unreal and it's been a while since I have been on the lucky side of one of those. My Bills were huge winners yesterday although I said earlier in the week that they would get blown out. It's too little too late and I knew that loss to the Browns on Monday Night would come back to bite them at some point. Had they won that game and maybe another easy one, we would be talking about a playoff deciding matchup with the Patriots in the final regular season game on Sunday. One more game this week and it will determine if I have another winning week. Good Luck to all!
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
Week 13: 6-3 ATS (+28.00 Units)
Week 14: 3-2 ATS (+13.50 Units)
Week 15: 3-2-1 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Week 16: 4-4 ATS (+14.50 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Can you believe the end of that Giants game last night? 50 Units in the bank! That was something unreal and it's been a while since I have been on the lucky side of one of those. My Bills were huge winners yesterday although I said earlier in the week that they would get blown out. It's too little too late and I knew that loss to the Browns on Monday Night would come back to bite them at some point. Had they won that game and maybe another easy one, we would be talking about a playoff deciding matchup with the Patriots in the final regular season game on Sunday. One more game this week and it will determine if I have another winning week. Good Luck to all!
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
Week 13: 6-3 ATS (+28.00 Units)
Week 14: 3-2 ATS (+13.50 Units)
Week 15: 3-2-1 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Week 16: 4-4 ATS (+14.50 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Monday, December 22
View attachment 6065 Green Bay Packers +4 (10 Units) View attachment 6064
View attachment 6065 Green Bay Packers +4 (10 Units) View attachment 6064
The Green Bay Packers are done, they are out and their hopes of making the playoffs are as possible as the Lions winning a game this season. Having said that, teams that have nothing to play are probably going to be good wagers next week and I am starting the trend with the Packers. I don't know what happened to this team along the course of the season but you cannot blame Aaron Rodgers for everything and the way things look right now, the Jets are probably going to miss the playoffs as well so Rodgers is most likely feeling a bit better about himself knowing the media can't compare his season to Brett Favre's had he made the playoffs. Heading into their November 2 road game against Tennessee, Green Bay was 4-3 SU on the season and looked like a team that would most definitely be right up there for a division win or wildcard spot come late December. Well since that game this team has gone 1-6 SU and they have now lost four straight games to completely kill any chance they had of making the playoffs. Can they continue to lose forever? It's not like those losses were blowout losses. The first loss was a 19-16 loss in overtime against Tennessee, the second was a 1 point loss to Minnesota, the third was a blowout loss in New Orleans, the fourth was a 4 point loss to Carolina, the fifth was a 3 point loss to Houston and the sixth was a 4 point loss to Jacksonville. So once again this team is competing and had 2-3 of those games gone the other way, we would be talking playoffs. The Packers come into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on a very decent 387.7 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play in those games. The Bears defense has not been playing Bear-like defense as of late allowing 22.7 points per game in their last three games and allowing 333.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, I am counting on RB Ryan Grant who need more carries if this team is going to win games. He has led the Packers to 112.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.4 yards per carries which is good news because the Bears have had problems stopping the run and they have allowed 138.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and allowed 4.2 yards per carry in those games. Grant should rush for 100+ yards and help the offense move the chains. In the air, QB Aaron Rodgers has played a lot better than people think completing 63.6% of his passes the last three games for a whopping 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Chicago's pass defense is pretty damn good which is why the Packers need Ryan to expose the Bears run defense like he did the first time these teams met. In the air, Chicago has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete 55.7% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt in those three games. The only concern I have about Rodgers is the lack of protection seeing how he has been sacked 7 times in the last three games and will face a Bears defense that loves to come after QB's and that has 6 sacks in their last three games. Once again this comes down to Ryan Grant and running the ball as much as possible. Rodgers has thrown 3 interceptions in the last three games, the Bears secondary has 4 interceptions in their last three games. Rodgers has a QB Rating of 94.2 in his last three games and the last three QB's the Bears defense has faced have a QB Rating of 68.3. The wise decision here is to pound away on the ground until you soften up the pass defense enough to hit a few deep money balls to the plethora of decent receivers on this football team. The Packers have been fantastic on third downs converting 45.2% of the time the last three games and they have scored touchdowns 55.6% of the time once in the RedZone their last three games. If the Packers can establish the run game early, they should move the chains enough to kill the clock and keep the Bears offense off the field. This of course all depends on what the Bears do if they have the ball first but I think the Packers offense has been effective enough that they can definitely keep up in this game and play a spoiling role. Chicago has been horrendous on punt return coverage the last three games allowing almost 30+ yards per punt return which means we can expect the Packers to maybe have one or two huge plays on special teams tonight. I think Aaron Rodgers is out to prove that his team is not as bad as their record speaks. Cheeseheads for me.
The Chicago Bears are the kind of team that almost always screwes you over no matter what you take. When you bet on them, they lose. When you go against them, they find a way to win and cover the spread. Having said that, I am going against the Bears in this game even if their playoff lives are hanging in the balance. Minnesota currently has the upper hand in this Division and basically the Bears need to win out on the season and hope that some other teams screw up somewhere along the line and lose their games this upcoming weekend. However, first things first and winning tonight is all that matters for this team. On that note, how will the Bears react to being blown out earlier this season by this same Packers team? Chicago has won three of their last four games but two of those games were against teams that are not making the playoffs (Jacksonville and St. Louis). Their only loss in the last month was against Minnesota and that was a 20 points blowout. I mean you have to always like the Bears at home seeing how they beat Minnesota here by 7 points, they beat the Lions by 4 points, they lost to Tennessee by 7 points, they beat Jacksonville by 13 points and they beat New Orleans by 3 points. If you ask me the Packers are just as good as some of those teams and this game, if anything, will resemble the game against New Orleans last week. Chicago comes into this game averaging only 21.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by averaging only 250.0 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on only 4.3 yards per play in those games. This offense is not clicking at all and that is going to be a problem tonight. Green Bay's defense has been disappointing this season and they have allowed 26.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have allowed 390.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.9 yards per play in those games. The Packers have not been able to stop teams that can run the ball as they have allowed 121.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.7 yards per carry in those games however RB Matt Forte has been hampered by some injuries as of late and he has led this team to only 81.3 rushing yards per game in the last three games on only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. Unless that can change tonight, the Bears are not going to make anymore noise than they have offensively the last three games which is not saying much. In the air, QB Kyle Orton has not played well at all. He has completed only 52.9% of his passes the last three games for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown a whopping 6 interceptions in those three games and been sacked 5 times which is not good news if you like the Bears tonight. I say that because although Green Bay has allowed their last three opponents to complete 66.3% of their passes for 8.8 yards per pass attempt, they have also been quite aggressive up front and have 5 sacks in those three games while coming up with 1 interceptions. Orton has never been good under pressure and this game shouldn't be any different as I suspect he is coming to turn the ball over to the Packers on 2-3 occasions. I also say that because the Bears have fumbled 4 times in the last three games, luckily losing only one of those fumbles. Like I mentioned before, the Packers give up a lot of yards and they allow a lot of big plays but that's only because they are a risk and reward type of defense, the kind that goes for the strip instead of the sure tackle. They have forced a whopping 8 fumbles in their last three games and managed to recover 4 of those 8 fumbles. "Kyle Orton sacked, fumbles the ball" anyone? I also have to point out that the Bears have sucked ass on third downs the last three games converting only 31.7% of the time which just doesn't work against a team like the Packers who have been waiting to face a bad third down team (the Packers have allowed their last three opponents to convert 48.6% of the time on third down). I know a lot of you are expecting Devin Hester to finally return a punt or kickoff for a touchdown to turn his season around but that is not happening against a Green Bay team that has been fantastic on both punt and kickoff returns the last three games. If you really like the Bears, take them in the first half of this game because they do average 16 of their 21 points per game in the last three games in the first half but the Packers defense is going to come up with some big plays for a change and they are going to lead this team to an unexpected win to end their losing streak.
Yes it's almost impossible to beat the same team twice in one season and specially against division opponents but the Chicago Bears did it last season against these Packers so why can't the boys in green return the favor this time around? The Packers absolutely demolished the Bears in their first meeting this season and although doing the same this time around is improbable, they have nothing to lose and will play to win. CHECK THIS OUT GUYS. Green Bay has lost 6 of their last 7 games. 5 OF THOSE 6 LOSSES WERE BY 4 POINTS OR LESS. So the bottom line here is that the Packers have kept games close, they have been right there for most of those games I don't see why this would be any different with one of these two teams winning by a field goal. As much as you guys probably don't want to bet on Green Bay here because of the way they have played as of late, there is no denying the fact that they have been a good road underdog bet over the last two or three seasons as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and they have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games overall. Despite going 0-4 ATS in their last four games, Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus the NFC North. For those of you who didn't know this, Chicago has covered the spread in only 4 of their last 14 home games as the favorite and how in the world can you trust these guys with this many points on the line? I know I don't and probably never will. This is a place the Packers have always played well and I am calling for a big upset tonight!
Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus NFC North opponents.
Green Bay 24, Chicago 21
:toast:
This is the end of another week and we only have one to go guys. It's been a fun season, I am about to make the most cash I have ever made betting an NFL regular season and I hope to continue the success throughout the playoffs and right into the Super Bowl. Best of luck to all and Merry Christmas to anyone who only reads my NFL threads.
The Chicago Bears are the kind of team that almost always screwes you over no matter what you take. When you bet on them, they lose. When you go against them, they find a way to win and cover the spread. Having said that, I am going against the Bears in this game even if their playoff lives are hanging in the balance. Minnesota currently has the upper hand in this Division and basically the Bears need to win out on the season and hope that some other teams screw up somewhere along the line and lose their games this upcoming weekend. However, first things first and winning tonight is all that matters for this team. On that note, how will the Bears react to being blown out earlier this season by this same Packers team? Chicago has won three of their last four games but two of those games were against teams that are not making the playoffs (Jacksonville and St. Louis). Their only loss in the last month was against Minnesota and that was a 20 points blowout. I mean you have to always like the Bears at home seeing how they beat Minnesota here by 7 points, they beat the Lions by 4 points, they lost to Tennessee by 7 points, they beat Jacksonville by 13 points and they beat New Orleans by 3 points. If you ask me the Packers are just as good as some of those teams and this game, if anything, will resemble the game against New Orleans last week. Chicago comes into this game averaging only 21.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by averaging only 250.0 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on only 4.3 yards per play in those games. This offense is not clicking at all and that is going to be a problem tonight. Green Bay's defense has been disappointing this season and they have allowed 26.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have allowed 390.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.9 yards per play in those games. The Packers have not been able to stop teams that can run the ball as they have allowed 121.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.7 yards per carry in those games however RB Matt Forte has been hampered by some injuries as of late and he has led this team to only 81.3 rushing yards per game in the last three games on only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. Unless that can change tonight, the Bears are not going to make anymore noise than they have offensively the last three games which is not saying much. In the air, QB Kyle Orton has not played well at all. He has completed only 52.9% of his passes the last three games for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown a whopping 6 interceptions in those three games and been sacked 5 times which is not good news if you like the Bears tonight. I say that because although Green Bay has allowed their last three opponents to complete 66.3% of their passes for 8.8 yards per pass attempt, they have also been quite aggressive up front and have 5 sacks in those three games while coming up with 1 interceptions. Orton has never been good under pressure and this game shouldn't be any different as I suspect he is coming to turn the ball over to the Packers on 2-3 occasions. I also say that because the Bears have fumbled 4 times in the last three games, luckily losing only one of those fumbles. Like I mentioned before, the Packers give up a lot of yards and they allow a lot of big plays but that's only because they are a risk and reward type of defense, the kind that goes for the strip instead of the sure tackle. They have forced a whopping 8 fumbles in their last three games and managed to recover 4 of those 8 fumbles. "Kyle Orton sacked, fumbles the ball" anyone? I also have to point out that the Bears have sucked ass on third downs the last three games converting only 31.7% of the time which just doesn't work against a team like the Packers who have been waiting to face a bad third down team (the Packers have allowed their last three opponents to convert 48.6% of the time on third down). I know a lot of you are expecting Devin Hester to finally return a punt or kickoff for a touchdown to turn his season around but that is not happening against a Green Bay team that has been fantastic on both punt and kickoff returns the last three games. If you really like the Bears, take them in the first half of this game because they do average 16 of their 21 points per game in the last three games in the first half but the Packers defense is going to come up with some big plays for a change and they are going to lead this team to an unexpected win to end their losing streak.
Yes it's almost impossible to beat the same team twice in one season and specially against division opponents but the Chicago Bears did it last season against these Packers so why can't the boys in green return the favor this time around? The Packers absolutely demolished the Bears in their first meeting this season and although doing the same this time around is improbable, they have nothing to lose and will play to win. CHECK THIS OUT GUYS. Green Bay has lost 6 of their last 7 games. 5 OF THOSE 6 LOSSES WERE BY 4 POINTS OR LESS. So the bottom line here is that the Packers have kept games close, they have been right there for most of those games I don't see why this would be any different with one of these two teams winning by a field goal. As much as you guys probably don't want to bet on Green Bay here because of the way they have played as of late, there is no denying the fact that they have been a good road underdog bet over the last two or three seasons as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and they have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games overall. Despite going 0-4 ATS in their last four games, Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus the NFC North. For those of you who didn't know this, Chicago has covered the spread in only 4 of their last 14 home games as the favorite and how in the world can you trust these guys with this many points on the line? I know I don't and probably never will. This is a place the Packers have always played well and I am calling for a big upset tonight!
Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus NFC North opponents.
Green Bay 24, Chicago 21
:toast:
This is the end of another week and we only have one to go guys. It's been a fun season, I am about to make the most cash I have ever made betting an NFL regular season and I hope to continue the success throughout the playoffs and right into the Super Bowl. Best of luck to all and Merry Christmas to anyone who only reads my NFL threads.
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