MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 23-18-2 ATS (+193.00 Units)
Once again last week I struggled a little bit to get some winners. The lines are getting sharper these days and some teams are just not showing up and it has cost me as of late. I have about a month left to keep things where they are. I have hit almost all my huge plays this season which is why I am up so many units. I introduced the DY Average earlier this week and I will factor that into my capping once again this week because it seems to have worked really well, apart from the Green Bay game of course. This is a tough time of year to win money and I suggest approaching with caution on teams that are still trying to find themselves. It's really late in the year so wtf? Let's do this.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Once again last week I struggled a little bit to get some winners. The lines are getting sharper these days and some teams are just not showing up and it has cost me as of late. I have about a month left to keep things where they are. I have hit almost all my huge plays this season which is why I am up so many units. I introduced the DY Average earlier this week and I will factor that into my capping once again this week because it seems to have worked really well, apart from the Green Bay game of course. This is a tough time of year to win money and I suggest approaching with caution on teams that are still trying to find themselves. It's really late in the year so wtf? Let's do this.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, November 27
Dallas Cowboys -12.5 (10 Units)
Dallas Cowboys -12.5 (10 Units)
The Seattle Seahawks are done with and I don't know who the genius is that thought it would be a good idea to have them play on Thanksgiving Thursday in the first place. Could this be another one of those cases where the NFL just wants to showcase one of the top teams in the league and let Dallas just blow these guys out of the water? Yes it could be but I don't think the league expected Seattle to be this bad in the first place. Gone is RB Sean Alexander. Injured was QB Matt Hasselbeck (well he was for most of the season but now he is back) and that is probably one of the big reasons that a) Mike Holmgren is done with all of this after 2008 and b) the Seattle Seahawks currently sit at 2-9 SU on the season and they have not done much better on the spreads going 4-6-1 ATS. On the road, the Seahawks are 1-4 SU but have done well on the spread going 3-2 ATS in those games. Having said that, they lost by 38 points at the Giants earlier this season, they lost by 10 points at Tampa Bay earlier this season (should have been way more if you ask me) and the last two road games they have looked decent blowing out San Francisco and losing to Miami by two points as +9 point underdogs. Seattle comes into this game averaging only 18.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that by also averaging only 240.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games...now that's horrendous. The Cowboys defense won't have PACMAN JONES back for this game but that's alright because they have allowed 22.3 points per game their last three games for only 283.7 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play in those games which is impressive. On the ground, the Seahawks would love to run more in this game as they average 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games but on only 102.7 rushing yards per game. Dallas has had problems stopping teams that can run as they have allowed 106.0 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.7 yards per carry in those games. The thing you can't run the ball against the Cowboys because they always have such big leads. In the air, Hasselbeck completed only 50.0% of his passes in his return last week for 4.3 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 54.7 which is...BAD! He is going up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed their last three opponents to complete 62.1% of their passes for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt which means that Seattle, should they go down early, will have trouble hitting the big plays downfield to keep the game close. The Seattle QB's have been sacked 7 times in their last three games and have thrown 5 interceptions in those games while averaging a QB Rating of only 58.6. That just won't fly today because the Cowboys have been pass rushing machines the last three games with 11 sacks in those three games and 3 interceptions to go along with it, while holding opposing QB's to an average QB Rating of 85.1 in those games. Dallas has always had problems stopping teams on big third down plays but Seattle has converted only 32.5% of their third down chances the last three games and they have to score touchdowns and not field goals if they expect to have any kind of chance in this game. The Cowboys know they have to do a much better job stopping teams that enter the RedZone because things have been way too easy for their opponents the last three weeks and holding Seattle to field goals is a must here. Dallas has been having problems stopping teams in the first quarter as of late allowing 27 points total in the first quarters of their last three games but they should get a break in this one as Seattle has a big fat total of only 3 points in their last three first quarters of their last three games which should give Dallas the chance to get comfortable in this game and really clamp down on things defensively, which I think is going to happen from the very beginning of this game. Hasselbeck just doesn't have enough rythm yet after his injury and the Cowboys defense is going to make him pay for it.
The Dallas Cowboys have most definitely had their ups and downs this season. Tony Romo missing almost a month was probably the toughest part of the season for these guys because at some point it looked like there was no chance they could continue to win games without their fearless leader. Well he is back now and everything looks good for the Cowboys who have since started winning games again and who are now 7-4 SU on the season. I have always been the first to preach that betting on Dallas at home is not smart because they play a lot better away from home and this season it seems like we are seeing that very same pattern once again as the Cowboys are 3-3 ATS away from home but only 2-3 ATS at home. In recent home, the Cowboys beat the Niners by 13 points, they beat Tampa Bay by 4 points, they beat Cincinnati by 9 points, they lost to Washington and they beat Philadelphia by 2 points. Seeing how they have only won one home game by more than 12.5 points this season, betting on them here doesn't look too enticing now does it? Having said that, this team is due for a huge performance in front of their home fans and the Holidays should definitely give them a chance to make it happen. Dallas comes into this averaging 21.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by averaging 302.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games (it looks bad because Romo is not back in his groove and he missed some of those games). Seattle's defense has actually been pretty bad as they have allowed 22.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games have managed to also allow 401.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play which should leave the door open for Dallas to do some damage here. On the ground, we have not seen a dominating performance from this running attack in a very long time as they are averaging only 90.7 rushing yards per game the last three games and averaging only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. RB Marion Barber could have a huge game today against a Seattle run defense that has allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game the last three games and that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry in those games. If Barber can carry the load today, things will only get easier for Romo and company. Speaking of Romo, he has been back for two games now and completed 64.7% of his passes in those games for 539 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and an average QB Rating of 93.0 in those games (not bad for missing a month). I think Romo is going to have a field day in this one as the Seattle defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 65.5% of their passes the last three games for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt and that works into the Cowboys favor because they will probably be looking for Owens all day long in this one. As long as Romo can play the way he did last week, avoid sacks, avoid mistakes and get comfortable in his home field rotations, I think the offense is going to click from the very beginning in this one. Dallas has been tremendous on third downs in their last three games converting 47.6% of their chances in those games and that's great news because the one thing Seattle can't do it stop teams on third downs as their last three opponents have completed 47.6% of their third down plays the last three games and that just won't work against Dallas. The Cobwoys are scoring touchdowns 57.1% of the time once inside the RedZone the last three games which is important with this number on the spread because we need big scores and not field goals. Seattle has allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns 62.5% of the time once they have entered the RedZone which is not good at all. It has been a while since the Cowboys have made some noise on special teams and I predict at least one big punt or kickoff return in this game. Seattle has allowed their last three opponents to average 28.1 yards per kickoff return the last three games and the Cowboys should break a big one here. I really like Dallas in this game.
Of course the betting public is setting with the better team here because if you look at past Thanksgiving Thursday games, the teams that are supposed to win end up winning and the teams that are supposed to lose end up losing. I always said this was a day to showcase teams heading for the playoffs and how ironic that the Titans would be on the slate this season seeing how they have the best record in the NFL and nobody really expected it. Watch out when betting on underdogs because not only could the Seahawks looks useless in this game but things could get ugly in a hurry and this is a perfect spot for Dallas to win via blowout. Seattle has somehow covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games that follow a straight up loss and that is a direct result of good coaching. However, the Seahawks are only 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. Dallas has always been a good team to bet on in the month of November (well since Tony Romo has been here) as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in the month of November and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games. I also have to mention that the Cowboys have covered the spread in 15 of their last 22 home games (2 of them were pushes) versus teams with a losing road record. Dallas is going to be jacked up for a big win, the fans deserve a big win and DALLAS WILL WIN BIG!
Trend of the Game: Dallas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in November.
Dallas 34, Seattle 13
The Dallas Cowboys have most definitely had their ups and downs this season. Tony Romo missing almost a month was probably the toughest part of the season for these guys because at some point it looked like there was no chance they could continue to win games without their fearless leader. Well he is back now and everything looks good for the Cowboys who have since started winning games again and who are now 7-4 SU on the season. I have always been the first to preach that betting on Dallas at home is not smart because they play a lot better away from home and this season it seems like we are seeing that very same pattern once again as the Cowboys are 3-3 ATS away from home but only 2-3 ATS at home. In recent home, the Cowboys beat the Niners by 13 points, they beat Tampa Bay by 4 points, they beat Cincinnati by 9 points, they lost to Washington and they beat Philadelphia by 2 points. Seeing how they have only won one home game by more than 12.5 points this season, betting on them here doesn't look too enticing now does it? Having said that, this team is due for a huge performance in front of their home fans and the Holidays should definitely give them a chance to make it happen. Dallas comes into this averaging 21.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by averaging 302.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games (it looks bad because Romo is not back in his groove and he missed some of those games). Seattle's defense has actually been pretty bad as they have allowed 22.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games have managed to also allow 401.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play which should leave the door open for Dallas to do some damage here. On the ground, we have not seen a dominating performance from this running attack in a very long time as they are averaging only 90.7 rushing yards per game the last three games and averaging only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. RB Marion Barber could have a huge game today against a Seattle run defense that has allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game the last three games and that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry in those games. If Barber can carry the load today, things will only get easier for Romo and company. Speaking of Romo, he has been back for two games now and completed 64.7% of his passes in those games for 539 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and an average QB Rating of 93.0 in those games (not bad for missing a month). I think Romo is going to have a field day in this one as the Seattle defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 65.5% of their passes the last three games for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt and that works into the Cowboys favor because they will probably be looking for Owens all day long in this one. As long as Romo can play the way he did last week, avoid sacks, avoid mistakes and get comfortable in his home field rotations, I think the offense is going to click from the very beginning in this one. Dallas has been tremendous on third downs in their last three games converting 47.6% of their chances in those games and that's great news because the one thing Seattle can't do it stop teams on third downs as their last three opponents have completed 47.6% of their third down plays the last three games and that just won't work against Dallas. The Cobwoys are scoring touchdowns 57.1% of the time once inside the RedZone the last three games which is important with this number on the spread because we need big scores and not field goals. Seattle has allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns 62.5% of the time once they have entered the RedZone which is not good at all. It has been a while since the Cowboys have made some noise on special teams and I predict at least one big punt or kickoff return in this game. Seattle has allowed their last three opponents to average 28.1 yards per kickoff return the last three games and the Cowboys should break a big one here. I really like Dallas in this game.
Of course the betting public is setting with the better team here because if you look at past Thanksgiving Thursday games, the teams that are supposed to win end up winning and the teams that are supposed to lose end up losing. I always said this was a day to showcase teams heading for the playoffs and how ironic that the Titans would be on the slate this season seeing how they have the best record in the NFL and nobody really expected it. Watch out when betting on underdogs because not only could the Seahawks looks useless in this game but things could get ugly in a hurry and this is a perfect spot for Dallas to win via blowout. Seattle has somehow covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games that follow a straight up loss and that is a direct result of good coaching. However, the Seahawks are only 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. Dallas has always been a good team to bet on in the month of November (well since Tony Romo has been here) as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in the month of November and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games. I also have to mention that the Cowboys have covered the spread in 15 of their last 22 home games (2 of them were pushes) versus teams with a losing road record. Dallas is going to be jacked up for a big win, the fans deserve a big win and DALLAS WILL WIN BIG!
Trend of the Game: Dallas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in November.
Dallas 34, Seattle 13
Philadelphia Eagles -3 (5 Units)
The Arizona Cardinals have cost me a pretty damn big load of cash this season because I have backed them against some of the top teams in the NFL and they have let me down pretty much everytime. The Cardinals are getting a ton of support from the public bettors in this game and although I am not too surprised, I don't think the average public joe has a clue what he is doing by betting on these guys on the road. Their last two road games were against two teams who are not going to even sniff a spot in the playoffs and the Cardinals went to St. Louis and lit up the Rams a few weeks ago and more recently are coming off a road win over Seattle just two weeks ago. Before that they lost by three points on the road against Carolina and and that was after their 21 point loss at the NY Jets earlier in the season. Did I mention that they were +3 point underdogs at Washington and lost that game by seven points? So why in the world is everyone backing a public underdog that is only 3-3 SU away from home and that has looked nothing more than lacklustre on the road at times this season? Sure this team is capable of winning big games like this one but Kurt Warner makes too many mistakes and I think they are going to struggle once again tonight to keep up with a bigger name NFC team. Arizona comes into this game averaging 30.1 points per game this season when playing on a natural grass surface and in those games they have managed to average 377.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play to go along with it. That's pretty good but it has to be mentioned that Philadelphia's defense has allowed 22.2 points per game on grass surfaces this season and that has come on only 294.2 total yards of offense per game in those games and only 4.7 yards per play. For whatever reason the Cardinals just can't run the ball on grass as they have averaged only 65.5 rushing yards per game on this surface on only 2.8 yards per carry each time. That should be no problem for an Eagles defense that has allowed only 101.1 rushing yards per game played on grass and only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. The pressure is on QB Kurt Warner and nobody else as the veteran has completed 70.9% of his passes on the grass surface this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt. In those games he has shown pretty damn good poise with an average QB Rating of 101.2 while throwing only 0.8 interceptions per game and being sacked 1.8 times per game in those games. However, the Eagles secondary should be ready to bounce back from a bad game last week as they have allowed opponents on this surface to complete only 56.6% of their passes this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt in those games and their pass rush has been one of the best in the NFL recording 3.5 sacks per game played on grass this season. That has led to some big plays by the secondary and if they can continue to pressure Warner, he will continue to make mistakes like fumbling the ball, something he seems to do 2-3 times per game when put under pressure. The Eagles opposing QB have an averaged QB Rating of only 76.6 this season when playing against them on the grassy surface. Arizona scores all their points and has all their success on third downs when playing on grass as they have converted 46.7% of their third down chances when playing on a grass surface. That's nice and all but Philadelphia has allowed opponents on grass to convert only 33.3% of their chances this season which should give the offense the ball back more often than not with decent starting field position in this one. So the bottom line is, the Eagles defense has to show up in this game or these guys could be in trouble. Arizona can score points and they can score them in bunches so if any opposing defense puts their guard down for any period of time, that team can be in serious trouble. I think the Eagles defense is due for a big bounce back game here and they are going to show that their early season success was not a fluke. Arizona loses again.
The Philadephia Eagles are being called a team in complete turmoil. Why? I mean what I saw last week against Baltimore (I was on the Eagles in that game) looked pretty damn normal to me and the announcers in that game were even warning that the media was going to have a field day with this situation. Well Andy Reid did the right thing by announcing on Monday afternoon that there was no beef with Donovan McNabb, that he was simply being a coach and making coaching moves and that his franchise QB was going to start for sure on Thursday Night. Perfect. What else is there to talk about here? McNabb was playing like a chump and he was benched and the story should end there. What we need to remember is that the Eagles are still very much a live and so is their season as they are 5-5 SU on the season and have some very winnable games coming up on their schedule. Having said that, this is a must win game for these guys and I truly believe they can get the job done as they are 3-2 ATS in home games and have played well. They were -3 point favorites the last time they were at home and that was a five point loss against the Giants. However prior to that, Philly beat a very good Atlanta team here by 13 points, they beat Pittsburgh here by 9 points and they lost a close game to Washington. This is gut check time. Philadelphia comes into this game averaging 24.5 points per games played on a grass surface this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 342.5 total yards of offense per game in those games. Arizona's defense has allowed 26.0 points per game when playing on a grass surface this season and they have also allowed 321.1 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.8 yards per play. It is imperative that the Eagles get something going on the ground in this game because they need to take some pressure of Donovan McNabb. Philadelphia has averaged only 96.7 rushing yards per game played on grass this season but they have done well in those games and have averaged 4.2 yards per carry which means Andy Reid needs to pull his head out of his ass and run the damn ball against a team that has allowed 93.1 rushing yards per game played on grass this season for 3.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, the return of McNabb is going to boost this team as he has completed 57.6% of his passes this season when playing on grass and have averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. That's nothing special but the Arizona secondary has been horrendous when playing on grass this season as they have allowed their opponents to complete 64.8% of their passes when playing on grass for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. That is going to open things up in the passing game and for the first time in quite a few weeks, I think the Eagles can throw the deep ball and have some success here. I say that because McNabb has been very well protected pretty much all season long and despite recording 2.3 sacks per game played on grass this season, the Arizona Cardinals secondary lacks aggressivess and they are not known for their takeaways (averaging only 0.6 per game played on grass this season). What you also have to understand is that Philadelphia is coming off a game against one of the league's best defenses in Baltimore and that was a Ravens team that had just been lit up by the Giants the week before. It was a bad situation for this offense and now things should get back to normal in this game. Arizona's last three opposing QB's on a grass surface have an average QB Rating of 100.8 in those games and McNabb is going to have his best game at home this season in front of the National TV audience (no doubt about it, he is primetime today). I just hope his fat ass didn't eat too much turkey here because he is playing the late game and had a lot of time to sit around. The Eagles have struggled on third down conversions all season but things could get a bit easier in this game as Arizona has allowed their opponents on grass this season to convert 44.1% of their chances and those same opponents have scored touchdowns 52.1% of the time once they have entered the RedZone. It is imperative that the Eagles score touchdowns in this game and not settle for field goals because the Cardinals can strike and they can strike fast. You do not want to be playing from behind against these guys. Arizona has allowed 13.3 points per first half of games played on grass this season so this is a great opportunity for the Eagles offense to find some kind of groove in the early going and then just stick it to the pedal. I really like the Eagles here guys, let's do it.
The whole Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb has been blown way out of proportion by the media and to be honest all it really was was a head coach seeing that things are not working with his franchise QB so he decided to mix things up and see if he could spark some life into this team. It didn't work, Donovan isn't pissed, Andy isn't pissed and life is still good. Having said that, the betting public has officially abandoned the Eagles for the season it seems as almost 65% of the public is going with the road underdog and I just don't understand why. You have to cut the Eagles offense a break here because they were playing against a Baltimore defense that was inspired after being lit up by the NY Giants the week before. Now it's the Eagles defense that should be inspired if you ask me. Arizona has done well coming off losses having covered 12 of their last 16 games that follow a straight up loss but they are the kind of team that plays down to their opponents level and we won't see the best of them in this game. Philadelphia usually makes a run for the playoffs at this time of the year as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played on Week 13 and they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games versus NFC opponents. They have also covered 16 of their last 23 games after allowing 30+ points the game before and this is a great opportunity for this team to start their run for the wildcard spot in the NFC. CHUNKY SOUP + TURKEY = MCNABB WIN!
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus NFC opponents.
Philadelphia 26, Arizona 18
I will post the rest of this weekends games in another thread sometime tomorrow or Saturday. GOOD LUCK TO ALL! Also Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
:toast:
The Philadephia Eagles are being called a team in complete turmoil. Why? I mean what I saw last week against Baltimore (I was on the Eagles in that game) looked pretty damn normal to me and the announcers in that game were even warning that the media was going to have a field day with this situation. Well Andy Reid did the right thing by announcing on Monday afternoon that there was no beef with Donovan McNabb, that he was simply being a coach and making coaching moves and that his franchise QB was going to start for sure on Thursday Night. Perfect. What else is there to talk about here? McNabb was playing like a chump and he was benched and the story should end there. What we need to remember is that the Eagles are still very much a live and so is their season as they are 5-5 SU on the season and have some very winnable games coming up on their schedule. Having said that, this is a must win game for these guys and I truly believe they can get the job done as they are 3-2 ATS in home games and have played well. They were -3 point favorites the last time they were at home and that was a five point loss against the Giants. However prior to that, Philly beat a very good Atlanta team here by 13 points, they beat Pittsburgh here by 9 points and they lost a close game to Washington. This is gut check time. Philadelphia comes into this game averaging 24.5 points per games played on a grass surface this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 342.5 total yards of offense per game in those games. Arizona's defense has allowed 26.0 points per game when playing on a grass surface this season and they have also allowed 321.1 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.8 yards per play. It is imperative that the Eagles get something going on the ground in this game because they need to take some pressure of Donovan McNabb. Philadelphia has averaged only 96.7 rushing yards per game played on grass this season but they have done well in those games and have averaged 4.2 yards per carry which means Andy Reid needs to pull his head out of his ass and run the damn ball against a team that has allowed 93.1 rushing yards per game played on grass this season for 3.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, the return of McNabb is going to boost this team as he has completed 57.6% of his passes this season when playing on grass and have averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. That's nothing special but the Arizona secondary has been horrendous when playing on grass this season as they have allowed their opponents to complete 64.8% of their passes when playing on grass for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. That is going to open things up in the passing game and for the first time in quite a few weeks, I think the Eagles can throw the deep ball and have some success here. I say that because McNabb has been very well protected pretty much all season long and despite recording 2.3 sacks per game played on grass this season, the Arizona Cardinals secondary lacks aggressivess and they are not known for their takeaways (averaging only 0.6 per game played on grass this season). What you also have to understand is that Philadelphia is coming off a game against one of the league's best defenses in Baltimore and that was a Ravens team that had just been lit up by the Giants the week before. It was a bad situation for this offense and now things should get back to normal in this game. Arizona's last three opposing QB's on a grass surface have an average QB Rating of 100.8 in those games and McNabb is going to have his best game at home this season in front of the National TV audience (no doubt about it, he is primetime today). I just hope his fat ass didn't eat too much turkey here because he is playing the late game and had a lot of time to sit around. The Eagles have struggled on third down conversions all season but things could get a bit easier in this game as Arizona has allowed their opponents on grass this season to convert 44.1% of their chances and those same opponents have scored touchdowns 52.1% of the time once they have entered the RedZone. It is imperative that the Eagles score touchdowns in this game and not settle for field goals because the Cardinals can strike and they can strike fast. You do not want to be playing from behind against these guys. Arizona has allowed 13.3 points per first half of games played on grass this season so this is a great opportunity for the Eagles offense to find some kind of groove in the early going and then just stick it to the pedal. I really like the Eagles here guys, let's do it.
The whole Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb has been blown way out of proportion by the media and to be honest all it really was was a head coach seeing that things are not working with his franchise QB so he decided to mix things up and see if he could spark some life into this team. It didn't work, Donovan isn't pissed, Andy isn't pissed and life is still good. Having said that, the betting public has officially abandoned the Eagles for the season it seems as almost 65% of the public is going with the road underdog and I just don't understand why. You have to cut the Eagles offense a break here because they were playing against a Baltimore defense that was inspired after being lit up by the NY Giants the week before. Now it's the Eagles defense that should be inspired if you ask me. Arizona has done well coming off losses having covered 12 of their last 16 games that follow a straight up loss but they are the kind of team that plays down to their opponents level and we won't see the best of them in this game. Philadelphia usually makes a run for the playoffs at this time of the year as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played on Week 13 and they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games versus NFC opponents. They have also covered 16 of their last 23 games after allowing 30+ points the game before and this is a great opportunity for this team to start their run for the wildcard spot in the NFC. CHUNKY SOUP + TURKEY = MCNABB WIN!
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus NFC opponents.
Philadelphia 26, Arizona 18
I will post the rest of this weekends games in another thread sometime tomorrow or Saturday. GOOD LUCK TO ALL! Also Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
:toast:
hno:
