MistaFlava's 2009 NFL Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)
As you can see from the information below, last season was my best ever in NFL betting as I finished with a 61% capping record on the year and finished with an 82% clip in the playoffs. I lost my first two wagers and then won my last 9 wagers of last year's playoffs including a huge play on the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl.
LAST YEAR
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 49-31-3 ATS (+528.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Playoffs: 9-2 ATS (+185.00 Units)
http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=658091
I won't say much more than I post around here for fun and to possibly help others win money. I bring controversy, drama, excitement or whatever you want to call it and I don't mind. All the stuff I write is my own. Sometimes tout sites steal my writeups and post them as their own. Oh well. I often do some of those writeups while drunk, half asleep or completely toasted but I make my selections way before my writeups.
Alright so the goal this season is once again to hit the 100 unit mark. All my wagers are 1 Unit = $100 unless I post otherwise. Let's make some cash this season and let's kick this off on a positive note with some big wins early one.
LETS MAKE SOME CASH!!!
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Thursday, September 10
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (10 Units)
The Tennessee Titans are going to make us a lot of money this season but my gut tells me that it won't start tonight. You cannot just walk into the NFL Champions House on the night they celebrate their success and beat these guys. Don't forget if you are going to back an underdog on the spread, you better like them to win the game as well. I remember Tennessee being one of those teams that I would get screwed going against almost each and every time I bet the other way last year and I also got screwed each and every time I took them. The Titans won 13 games in 2009 and although that is going to be a hard task to follow up on, this team most certainly has the talent to do it but again I don't see that happening. Tennessee lost Albert Haynesworth to free agency this past summer and believe me the blow to the team is a lot bigger than some experts are leading on. Haynesworth was a monster against the run and his presence in the middle was a big part of the Titans run to 13 wins. Defense is not my concern with this Titans team. It's the offense. Sure QB Kerry Collins was amazing last season and sure he won the job early and never looked back but QB Vince Young is actually a distraction that the team doesn't need right now. Sure he is sitting in the shadows and waiting for the day or the few games where Collins messes up and the fans get on the team for Young to start playing but that is all part of football. Again my problem here is that I just don't see how Tennessee is going to score points tonight. The Titans were held to under 20 points in both pre-season games played on the road the last couple of weeks and they still lack a star caliber receiver that can make some big plays and get these guys downfield when they need it the most. Pittsburgh was the #1 defense in the NFL last year and with the re-signing of James Harrison and with pretty much everyone back you can expect a ton of blitzes on Collins tonight and I just don't see how the Titans are going to effectively run the ball or move it in the air. Sure there might be a bit of Super Bowl rust or what not but I think the Steelers are going to be ready and when you neutralize the Titans running game, you should be able to make some plays on the aging Kerry Collins who can't continue his success forever. I think Tennessee is going to be a good team but I just don't think they can win the inside battles tonight.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2008 NFL Super Bowl Champions and they deserved it. Even though I went against them in the Super Bowl and made some nice cash, I was happy to see this team once again raise the championship because you have to admire consistency in the NFL. It's very tough (as we can see with the Lions, Raiders, Bengals and other franchises) to build dynasties and let me tell you that Pittsburgh has something good going here with their second Super Bowl win in the last few years. On that note, I have learned that with NFL betting you always go with your gut and you always back good teams. I know a lot of people talk about Super Bowl hangover and that might be the case had this game been a 1:00pm ET game on Sunday when nobody from the outside is watching but this is the season opener versus a very good Tennessee team and the Steelers do not want to be embarrassed. On that note, you have to also think that Pittsburgh wants a bit of revenge for that 31-14 loss they suffered last December. Sure the game meant nothing to either team but the Titans kept pouring it on and rubbing salt in the Pittsburgh wounds, a game they would have never lost had they played all their starters all game. What I like the most about QB Ben Roethlisberger is that despite having mediocre numbers year in and year out, this guy has heart and he makes some of the biggest plays in the NFL when asked to do so. Need a 4th and 16 to win the game, ask Ben. With a lot more time to throw the ball now that Haynesworth is not on the Titans anymore, expect Big Ben to find some of his big name receivers downfield in this one. Everyone on the Steelers is pretty much healthy which is a big change from last year's squad. I think the Steelers are going to smash the ball down Tennessee's throats for the most part of the first half before opening things up and going for the home run ball in the second half. Do not panic folks. The line is setup perfectly for someone to sneak a cover through the backdoor which I really see happening tonight. We all know how the Steelers roll. They look mediocre for 3 quarters but when the rough gets going, the Steelers do all the talking. Show me the money.
Alright so we are probably in for a long boring game tonight that won't have too many big plays and I actually don't mind that. We all know how methodical the Steelers can be at times and we all know the terrible towels are not going to want to lose their first home game since winning the Super Bowl. Football is not like other sports. In baseball teams can go weeks of playing bad ball after winning a championship the year before and it won't affect their overall season. Same with basketball and same with hockey. However with football the season is so short that one loss can put a serious wrench in your plans and both teams want to avoid that tonight. The last time Tennessee was in Pittsburgh they were a +7 points underdog, it was on September 11, 2005 and the Titans got their asses handed to them to the tune of a 34-7 loss. What's a bit scary about going against Tennessee here is that they covered the spread in all four of their September games in 2007 and all four of their September games in 2008. They are also one of the most profitable underdogs of the last three seasons covering 16 of their last 21 as underdogs. Having said that, Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four years in Week 1 games, they have covered the spread in 5 straight home games dating back to mid last season, they have covered the spread in 24 of their last 32 home games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four appearances on Thursday Night Football. Both teams have been very profitable the last 2-3 seasons but in the end you have to go with the Super Bowl Champs. Open this season with a win please!
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last four appearances on Thursday Night Football
Pittsburgh 27, Tennessee 17
Sunday, September 13
Philadelphia Eagles -1 (10 Units)
I think it's quite funny how people can keep hating on the same teams and same players over and over again. Sure the Eagles signed QB Michael Vick in the off-season and sure that brings controversy but I guarantee you he has some sort of big time impact on the team at some point this season and most Philadelphia fans have already seen that he is a changed man. This is the same Philadelphia team that was one win away from the Super Bowl last year but they ran into the red hot Arizona Cardinals and that was the end of that. The Eagles lost quite a few key members from last year's team as S Brian Dawkins is gone, CB Lito Sheppard is gone, WR Greg Leiws is gone and TE LJ Smith is gone. Having said that, this team has a plethora of young players who can get the job done namely WR Desean Jackson who electrified the NFL with some of his plays in 2008 and the addition of newly drafter WR Jeremy Maclin who is pretty much another version of Jackson. RB Brian Westbrook continues to motor away and I don't think this team will have problems scoring. I don't know exactly what to expect from the Eagles in this game but I know that it will take a few weeks for Julius Peppers to get going (like it always does) and now is the time you want to catch this Panthers team sleeping. They have a solid defense and everyone has them picked first in the NFC South but Philadelphia is still a very good team and I don't see McNabb slowing down in his trek for that one Super Bowl ring before he retires. The Eagles will move the ball effectively and score enough points to support their defense. They should be able to run the ball effectively enough to control some clock and rest the boys in the back.
The Carolina Panthers are usually a team I like to back but I refuse to back them until later on this season when they go on one of those late season runs for the roses. The Panthers were an impressive 12 win team in 2008 and a lot of people had them picked to be in the Super Bowl when all the dust settled but the Panthers never made it past their first playoff game as they also fell victims to the Arizona Cardinals. So we have two teams who went down in the playoffs to the eventual NFC Champions. The team is not all that different than last year and the Panthers are going to try and run the Eagles into the ground in this game with the best rushing tandem in the NFL (DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart) but easier said than done against this Philadelphia defense. The Panthers did not have a first round pick this season and I still don't see how they addressed their issues to stop the run. It will be very difficult for this team to win 12 games again this season and I don't see them surviving Week 1 without their first loss of the year. I know these guys are hungry to get back into the swing of things because of the way they went crashing out of the playoffs but it's tough to win 12 games, lose in the first round of the playoffs and come out playing hard the next time around. I think there is some kind of buzz around the Eagles right now that we don't have with Carolina. Also you have to take into consideration that this offense did not score more than 17 points in any of their pre-season games this year and they did not score 30 points in any of their first four games in 2008 (They scored 30+ a whopping 7 times last season). So with the traditional slow starts on the offensive side of things, I prefer waiting until October to back this team because they won't repeat what they did last season.
Alright so the last time the Eagles came to Carolina for a regular season game was on November 30, 2003 as +1.5 point underdogs, a game that they managed to win 25-16. Since that game the Eagles are 5-1 SU against Carolina beating them in two pre-season home games and two regular season home games so they have somewhat dominated the Panthers over the years. Philadelphia comes into this game with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games played on a grass surface and I have always said that we always get the best out of McNabb when he is playing outdoors and on grass so it makes sense. The Eagles have also dominated NFC opponents the last few seasons going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams from the NFC and they are also one of the best ATS road teams of the last few seasons going 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. Carolina is always going to be a good home team and I have made tons of cash backing these guys at home over the years but it's too early in the season and the home field advantage is somewhat neutralized. The money I made however was betting on this team when favored at home because as underdogs they have not been worth the price going 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and covering the spread in only 2 of their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3 points. I think Andy Reid and the Eagles are hungrier for this game.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Philadelphia 27, Carolina 20
Denver Broncos +4 (5 Units)
The Denver Broncos are not done just yet and although they have already been written off by a bunch of media outlets, I think this team is going to be a lot better than people think. Mike Shanahan has a knack for developing top notch running backs and he has consistently done this over the years. However, Shanahan is gone but he leaves behind a legacy. The Broncos have been successful over the years because of their efficient ground attack that not only produces a ton of yardage and a ton of offense but it also controls the clock, keeps opposing offenses off the field (that's effective against teams that can score) and it's just what the Broncos do. For those who don't know by now, the Broncos selected RB Knoshown Moreno with their first round pick and in his only pre-season action before getting hurt, the former Georgia Bulldog superstar rushed 3 times for 18 yards but then he bummed his knee. I actually think Moreno will be a superstar on this team and the word right now is that he is going to play in this game. I know he's only a rookie but the Bengals have Tank Williams plugging holes on the field now and Shanahan is going to have to keep pounding away at the ground game to set things up for QB Kyle Orton in the air. I saw a bit of pre-season action and I think Orton is going to fit into this system just fine. We all know there is going to be a ton of scoring in this game, the Broncos are going to pound away on the ground until Cincinnati shows they can stop them, which I don't think they can and that should open things up for Orton to find some of his playmaking receivers. I like the Broncos a lot in this one.
The Cincinnati Bengals are one of those teams that are probably always going to suck despite some of their success in recent years. Having said that, this is "supposed" to be the year once again where they do some big things and win some big games but I am not buying that at all. Who knows how long QB Carson Palmer can stay healthy and why are people so sure he is going to come back from his injury and lead this team to more than the 4 wins they had in 2008. WR TJ Houshmandzadeh is gone and although WR Chad Ocho Cinco is still around, Mush was the backbone of this receiving corps and I am not sure how Palmer is going to compensate. Denver is no means a team that can stop opponents from scoring so you can expect some Cincinnati points in this game as well. I do however like the fact that the Broncos brought in Safety and Team Leader Brian Dawkins from the Eagles because he is going to provide some much needed leadership in the secondary. The Broncos also drafter DE Robert Ayers in the first round to shore up their run defense and judging by some of their pre-season results, it's starting to payoff. Denver allowed 136 rushing yards in their first pre-season game, they allowed only 72 rushing yards in their second pre-season game, they allowed 114 rushing yards in their third pre-season game and they allowed only 68 rushing yards in their final pre-season game. Believe me when I say the Broncos are going to be a lot more effective on the defensive side of things and for some reason think it's going to take some time for the Cincinnati offense to get things together here. They lost a few key offensive tackles to free agency and if this thing turns into a shootout, I will take the Broncos offense any day of the week over the Bengals.
Alright so these two teams meet each other every couple of years and it's tough to base anything on past meetings because they have not faced off since 2006 season where Cincinnati went to Denver as a +3 point underdog and managed to keep the game close in a 24-23 loss. The last time Denver was in Cincinnati was back in 2004 when the Bengals found a way to win as a +7 point home underdog. Having said that, the good times were rolling back then for Cincinnati and we haven't see that type of offense of charisma around the team ever since. I took a look at some stats over the past few seasons and it appears that Denver is one of the worst ATS teams of those last few years. They have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 40 games played overall. Can you believe that? No team comes close to that kind of mediocrity over the last few years. So why would I bet on the Broncos here knowing how bad they have been against the spread? Well it's simple. They have made some big time changes. Not only do they have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels but they traded franchise QB Jay Cutler and brought a better attitude to this team. Despite finishing off the 2008 season strongly at home, the Bengals are still only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus AFC opponents and they have covered only 2 of their last 9 games when favored. I made some money on the Bengals last season but as underdogs. You need to know that this team is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Not much more can be said here. The underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings and Denver is a talented bunch that needed some change and they go it. Expect an explosion of points in this game.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Denver 37, Cincinnati 27
Minnesota Vikings -4 (10 Units)
The Minnesota Vikings are arguably the most dangerous team in the NFL right now with the addition of QB Brett Favre who is playing for the most hated team in Green Bay. Putting all that aside, the Vikings were a decent QB away from some very big things in 2008 and I say that because they have some superstar wide receivers, they have the best running back in the NFL, they have once arguably one of the best defensive lines and overall defenses in the NFL and they have a great place to play. Insert one of the best QB's of all-time and are we talking Super Bowl here? The Vikes won 10 games in 2008 but they lost in the first round of the playoffs against the Philadelphia Eagles. All that loss did was leave this team wanting more and with such a good core of players back for this season, they could possibly win 12 games this time around. Brad Childress is now in his fourth season as the head coach of this team and he has this team heading in the right direction that is for sure. What's scary is that the Vikings have four players who caught 40+ passes in 2008 but none of them caught more than 53 passes. Having said that, Brett Favre has yet another weapon to work with as the Vikes drafter Florida WR Percy Harvin who should have an immediate impact. I think the Vikings are going to want to make a statement right out of the gates and that means dialing up some big plays. Cleveland's defense was so-so in 2008. The could stop the pass but couldn't stop the run if their lives depended on it. Not much has changed and that is bad news when the best RB in the NFL is in town and is eager to get the season going. Eric Mangini brought in a ton of former Jets to this Cleveland defense but I don't know what difference that will make. The more AP pounds away on the ground, the more the Browns offense gets cold and I think the Vikings are going to romp. This won't even be close.
The Cleveland Browns are yet another one of those NFL Franchises that are probably never going to be good and trips to the playoffs are going to come once every 10 years if even if so at that. The other teams like that are the Detroit Lions, the Cincinnati Bengals just to name a few. If it makes some of you Cleveland backers feel any better, the Browns managed to score 73 total points in their last three pre-season games combined but the pre-season really doesn't mean jack and I don't see the Browns keeping up with the Vikings in this game. TE Kellen Winslow is gone, WR Joe Juruvicius is also gone and the Browns did not draft an offensive player until the second round of this year's draft. QB Brady Quinn has been named the starter for this team but their only hope to score points at this point is RB Jamal Lewis who is not getting any younger and who is going to have to try and get some yards against the toughest run defense in the NFL. Once the ground game doesn't work for the Browns, Quinn is going to be forced to put the ball in the air but two of his top receivers of the last few seasons are gone and unless WR Braylon Edwards can do it all himself, this team is going to be just as useless as it was in 2008. There is no direction whatsoever with this club. I don't care how much they think they improved on the defensive side of the ball because if your offense is going 3 and out on every possession, your defense is going to suffer. The Browns have nothing that could hurt Minnesota and I see this being one heck of a long afternoon for these guys.
These two teams have only met once in the regular season and that was on November 27, 2005 when the Browns made the trip to the indoor confines of the MetroDome where they lost 24-12 as a +4.5 point underdog. Both teams looked decent at times in the pre-season but on paper Minnesota should have no problems running the Browns into the ground with their solid run attack and all that can do is open things up in the air for Favre to show what he is still made of and shut a bunch of the critics up. I looked back at the last 7-8 seasons of NFL Football and noticed that Minnesota has actually done quite well in Week 1 of the season as they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on Week 1 of the season. I have to be honest and say that I made a ton of cash betting on the lowly Browns last season when short range underdog of 3.5 to 10 points as they have covered five straight games in that range but a lot of those games were on turf and for some reason the Browns are not the same at home. Cleveland is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games played on natural grass, they have failed to cover the spread in Week 1 games four years in a row and they have not covered the spread at home in more than 5 games. AP, Brett and the plethora of talented players on this Minnesota team are going to make an early season statement in this game and I say they win this game huge.
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on Week 1.
Minnnesota 31, Cleveland 9
San Francisco 49ers +6.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The San Francisco 49ers could very well finally have the season they have been talking about having the last 5-6 years. All the pieces of the puzzle are in place and now it's a matter of execution for these guys. The Niners come into this season off a very respectable 7-9 record in 2008 that saw them come quite close to making the playoffs. It would have been nice to have standout WR Michael Crabtree suit up for the team this season but it looks like contract problems are going to keep out and away and Mike Singletary's guys are just going to have to do without him. I know most of the pre-season meant quite a bit to Singletary in terms of preparing for the regular season and that theory showed in their first three games as they beat Denver, Oakland and Dallas. I know the pre-season means nothing but Singletary said he wanted to have a winning attitude around the team heading into the real games and he managed to do just that when his starters were out there. I'll put QB Alex Smith down as the starter for this one and my gut feeling tells me he is going to hold that job down for the most part of this season. At some point in his career this kid has to gut check himself and put himself in a position to be successful. He has a prime time RB to work with in Frank Gore and he has a few receivers with enough experience to make some plays. Even though the Arizona Cardinals made the Super Bowl last year and they were NFC Champions, their defense sucked and 6.5 points is a lot for a season opener. DE Antonio Smith is gone which means the holes will be a lot bigger up front and Gore could really take control of this game early. The only reason the defense wasn't a problem for the Cardinals in the playoffs is because they bent a lot of times but they never broke and that is hard to do on a consistent basis. I think Smith and Gore are going to have a great time moving the ball in this game and I actually expect the Niners to lead for the most part of this season opener.
The Arizona Cardinals are finally back on the field after their Super Bowl loss last February to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's tough to lose a Super Bowl but this team is still good offensively and they still have enough weapons to score 40 points per game. Having said that, their defense was not good last season and it was quite shocking that they managed to keep that defense intact long enough to make it to the Big Dance. Surprisingly enough they did not improve that defense in the off-season and it will pretty much take a miracle for the Cardinals to win 9 games again this season relying solely on their offense to get all the work done. The Cardinals do have the advantage of playing in a complete garbage division of the NFC and that does up their chances of making the playoffs again but now that QB Kurt Warner is signed to a new deal, I don't trust that he is going to have the same kind of season in 2009 as he did in 2008. If Warner plays at a lower level of football this season than he did the last, this team is going to struggle and like I said before, there is a good chance that things go bad and they don't even reach the playoffs. San Francisco is a hungry team and they are not about to lay down and let the Cardinals run or pass all over them. The Niners have Patrick Willis running the show for them on the defensive side of things. They also have LB Takeo Spikes calling the shots in the middle and their secondary looks pretty damn good with CB Nate Clements and CB Michael Lewis. This defensive unit has the potential to be one of the most underrated in the NFL and I think Singletary is going to bring out the best in them this season. Arizona scored 37 points in their pre-season game against Green Bay a few weeks ago but in the other three games they scored a combined total of 16 points and they were shutout by the Denver Broncos in the finale. I just don't like the attitude of this team enough to take them by almost a full touchdown here and I think San Francisco is going to be the surprise team of the early 2009 season. Fade the Cardinals for now!
Now we get down to the real football and I say that because I love divisional matchups in the first week of the season. Not only does it force teams to come into the regular season well prepared but it also forces teams to put their best foot forward or risk falling out of contention early in the season. For all of you who don't remember, the Niners came to Arizona on November 11 of last year and almost beat the Cardinals in a 29-24 loss. They were also here in November of 2007 and actually won that game in overtime on a fumble recovery in the end zone as +10 point underdogs. I also remember placing some large wagers on the Niners last season as underdogs and they are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. I love the way this team finished the season because even though they had a very slim chance of making the playoffs, the used the final games of last season as a building block for the 2009 season and we are going to see that payoff here today. The Cardinals obviously come into this game with quite the ATS resume after their 4-0 ATS run in the playoffs of last season (I was on them for all four games) but when you look back at their regular season games you will see that they are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. They have covered only 3 of their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and it has to be known that San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Arizona. The Road Team has covered the spread in 7 straight meetings between these two teams and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six. How can you not love Singletary and his squad here? UPSET UPSET UPSET!
Trend of the Game: Road Team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams.
San Francisco 34, Arizona 31
Washington Redksins +6.5 (5 Units)
The Washington Redskins come into the 2009 season with some big time expectations and if good things don't happen to this franchise soon, you can bet your bottom dollar we are going to see some changes around here. The Skins did not mess around this off-season as they went out of their way to add the best DT in the NFL Albert Haynesworth. They also added linemen on both sides of the ball in hopes of providing more protection for their passing game and in hopes of generating a much better pass rush than last year. The Skins offense finally got things going in the final three pre-season games of the summer as they were shutout in their opener but righted the ship in time to finish strong. The Skins also improved their D-Line by drafting DE Brian Orakpo early in the first round of the past NFL Draft. All that is left now with these guys is putting together a good product that is going to result in wins and that all starts with QB Jason Campbell. The kid from Auburn takes a lot of flack and he must feel a little bit betrayed by the fact that the Redskins did everything they could to get their hands on QB Jay Cutler but that is in the past and Campbell has shown that with the right coaching he can be a good quarterback in this league. He has a top notch set of WR's to work with and he one of the best running backs of the last few years in RB Clinton Portis. We can all agree that the Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and that they are going to be tough up front but Campbell is good on his feet, he was a bit flustered here in 2008 but he has more experience now and I expect him to buy some time, move out of the pocket and find some of his big name receivers downfield. The Giants have a weak secondary so why the heck not. It's really tough to replace guys like CB Sam Madison, S Sammy Knight and S James Butler. Campbell actually played really well here last September but the Redskins could not seal the deal. With an even weaker secondary than last year, Campbell should really be able to find his receivers downfield and move those chains and score more than the 7 points they put on the board in that game.
The New York Giants of 2009 do not look at all like the New York Giants that won the Super Bowl during the 2007 season. Nothing at all. WR Plaxico Burress is going to jail, WR Armani Toomer is gone, WE David Tyree is also gone despite being the only reason the Giants won the Super Bowl and things are just not the same. The Giants still have one of the best teams in the NFL and I don't doubt they are going to win their Division but this is a tough way to start the season. The Washington Redskins went out of their way and paid $100 million dollars to acquire Albert Haynesworth so you can bet your bottom dollar QB Eli Manning is going to get sick of this guy before he can even reach halftime of this game. Even with all the distractions last season the Giants managed to win 12 games and like I already said they have a good team. However, their home win over the Redskins last season was a sloppy one to open the season and I somewhat expect the Giants to be just as lackluster in this game. It's only natural that good teams take a bit of time to get going but the difference between the Redskins defense in 2008 and the Redskins defense in 2009. The additions of Brian Orakpo and Albert Haynesworth confirms that the Giants will not go off for 154 rushing yards like they did last year in this matchup and had it not been for Brandon Jacobs rushing for 116 yards in that game, I can promise you it would have been a lot closer. Manning was only 19 of 35 in that game for 216 passing yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Redskins secondary is just as solid this time around and when the Skins force Manning to throw the ball a lot more than he wants to, I can promise you the mistakes are going to happen and the Skins are going to make some big plays defensively. Just think of it this way guys. Washington lost by 9 here last season. Now they add Haynesworth and Orakpo and believe me they can inch closer to actually winning this game with their defense.
From what I can see in past meetings, the Redskins have never had much success winning games here in New York. They kept their season opening road loss to the Giants close but failed to cover the +4.5 last year and the second time around the Skins lost by 16 as +3.5 home underdogs. If they are going to have any kind of success this season, losing twice to the Giants is not acceptable and this is by far the biggest game of Washington's young season. The Giants actually looked awful in the pre-season, finishing off with an 0-3 ATS record after beating Carolina in the opener. I am not a big fan of Jason Campbell or betting on Washington at all for that matter. However, I do remember that they play much better in September and early on in the season than they do when the rough gets going. Washington is actually 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in September. The Giants were the same in 2008 and they have covered 4 of their last 5 games played in September but I cannot back them knowing how much experience they lost in their secondary. We all know this is going to be a low-scoring game and as much as the Skins have disappointed their backers in this series the last couple of years, you cannot hide from the fact that the road team has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings. I like the Skins to break trend here and you would actually be surprised how this team performs with their new defensive prizes. I smell another upset.
Trend of the Game: Road Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.
Washington 17, NY Giants 16
Chicago Bears +3.5 (10 Units)
The Chicago Bears can either be your best friend (gambling wise obviously) or they can totally screw you over. That was the case when QB Kyle Orton was in charge. Something to keep in mind. Please keep an eye on Orton's performance earlier today because if he goes lights out and the Broncos find a way to win in Cincinnati (like I think they will), you and I both know that QB Jay Cutler is going to want to win himself and he is going to do everything he can to match that performance. Actually, regardless of what Orton does I think Cutler is out to shut people up and this could be one his best performances in the NFL if he really wants to get the ball rolling. He spent so much time defending his comments while in Denver that the only thing left for him to do is perform on the National Stage which he is about to do. Do not underestimate the Bears ladies and gentlemen because they did win 9 games last season and they do bring back the core of their team this season. The only reason this team had problems in 2008 is because their customary tough defense took a year off and they lacked strong play at the QB position. Apparently that has been fixed now with the arrival of Cutler and with both Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher back from injury in the secondary, there is no way this team is going to allow 40+ points a game like they did so many times in 2008. The Packers defense is pretty damn good and they held the Bears to only 3 points in this game last year but again Jay Cutler makes a huge difference in an offense and there is no doubt in my mind that with a healthy defense to back him up, he is going to lead the Bears to a win in this game.
The Green Bay Packers finished with a very disappointing 6-10 SU record in 2008 and that was after a bunch of experts had picked them to win 10 games. So where do they go from there? Sure they had a bunch of injuries on both sides of the ball and sure QB Aaron Rodgers had to do everything himself but if the Packers think they can win this home game by 34 points like they did against the Bears in last years matchup, they have another thing coming. Please do not forget that the most depleted defense in the NFL last season was Chicago's and had they played anywhere close to the level of defense we have seen the last few seasons, that game would have been a lot closer in the end. Again not much has changed with this team from last year's squad so they have the experience of playing together at least. Both of these teams looked pretty good in the pre-season each winning three of their four games and again taking that game from last year where the Bears got smoked at Lambeau is a big mistake. Overall the Packers are not as good as the Bears (healthy that is) which is why I think people who put too much time into last year's matchup are in for one rude surprise in this game. In that game last year the Packers rushed for 200 yards and believe me that is not going to happen this time around. Rodgers had his way in the air as well against the depleted Bears defense and that game was what I would call one of the big reasons why the Bears did not make the playoffs in 2008. As a matter of fact they were one win away from making the playoffs and had it not been for all those injuries on defense who knows what kind of season they would have had. Now that everyone is back I don't see Green Bay scoring more than 21 points in this game. Rodgers is going to be under pressure all night long, RB Ryan Grant is going to find it tough to get through the middle and the Bears are going to be aggressive enough to force a bunch of turnovers. Lovie Smith wants nothing to do with getting blown out in Green Bay two years in a row and believe me when I say that he is going to have his defense ready for this game. Green Bay is a good team but they are not expecting such an improvement from the Bears on the defensive side of things and Jake Cutler is going to be all over this Green Bay secondary looking to make big plays all night.
Alright so I talked enough about the game in Green Bay last year because I know the Bears have not forgotten about it. You don't just lose by 34 points on the road against a divisional rival and forget about it just like that. The Bears did get their revenge in some ways the week before Christmas but it was a sloppy game and it took overtime to do it which means the Packers went 2-0 ATS against Chicago last season. Not bad for a team that had so many injuries and again I expect the Bears to reverse that trend this time around as long as they can stay healthy. From what I can see the Bears pretty much gave up on the season even though they were still in contention late last year but with that being said they should be ready to go with a fresh mindset and a brand new QB in 2009. Green Bay was very successful against NFC North in 2008 which is part of the reason they managed to at least get their 6 wins and in the end they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus NFC North opponents but like I said before, a healthy Bears team with Cutler at the helms is no doubt going to change things. We are talking about a Packers team that has covered the spread in only 2 of their last 7 games and that is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite. The road team has actually done really well in this series covering the spread in 13 of the last 19 (with one push along the way) and the underdog has taken home the bacon in 4 of the last 5. I know Chicago has not been all that reliable against the Packers but with an MVP type QB, something they have never had, I expect everything to change. The Bears will impress, mark my words.
Trend of the Game: Road Team is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
Chicago 23, Green Bay 20
Monday, September 14
Buffalo Bills +10.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Alright so my beloved Buffalo Bills get the first half of the Monday Night Football double header and of course the league once again screws us over and does not give us a Monday Night Football game at home. In case you have not noticed in the past, the Bills are the kind of team that can one day look like a Super Bowl worthy team and they are also the kind that can look like the Detroit Lions on any given Sunday. Can we please not talk about the Bills pre-season loss to those Lions because it really proves my point. Having said of all of that, you cannot take into consideration the Bills pre-season games because not only were they missing WR Terrell Owens but they were getting set to fire the offensive coordinator for being so useless and running the offense like he was in the CFL. It is going to take a lot for the Bills to win this game but it's not impossible. You all remember that Monday Night Game a few years back at home against the Dallas Cowboys as +10 point underdogs. Yup the one that the Bills had won until some bad play calling late in the game totally screwed them over and that rookie kicker for Dallas dropped two from 50+ yards to win the game. QB Trent Edwards is still an underrated QB that is bound to have a breakout season. Will it come this year with TO in the mix of things? It could. Aren't you all excited to see TO versus Randy Moss? I know I am and knowing TO he is going to call his own number really early in this game and the bills are going to be aggressive enough that I see them testing this secondary early. It's too bad the Bills don't have RB Marshawn Lynch to start the year. He was dumb enough to go play with guns in Oakland this past off-season and now he has been suspended by the league. What a lot of people don't know is that the Bills are going to use a ton of no huddle this season which should accelerate the offense and generate a lot more excitement. RB Fred Jackson was outstanding replacing Lynch last year and I see him getting the bulk of the carries here. Why are the Pats getting so much credit on defense anyways? Seymour is gone, Harrison is gone, Vrabel is gone and you meant to tell me that they deserve to be favored by this many points? The Bills don't have a choice but to be aggressive and with two deep threats like TO and WR Lee Evans, I think this team is going to win their first game in New England in God knows how long. Bank on it folks. Upset of the year so far.
The New England Patriots finally get their golden boy back in time for the start of the 2009 season. Without Brady we all know this team is nothing and that showed last season as they finished with an 11-5 SU record, which was not good enough for the playoffs. Having said that, I don't know how quickly Brady can get back to game form after so much time off. I know he looked okay in the pre-season but that doesn't mean anything because he has to play a full four quarters of intense football on Monday Night Football against a division rival. I can't say I'm a huge fan of the Bills defense because they did get scorched quite a few times last year but with everyone healthy this time around we should see some improvements. The Bills allowed only 33 combined points in two games against these Patriots in 2008 but the only problem there is that they scored only 10 combined points of their own in those games and it cost them. Now that the Bills have a more exciting and hopefully a more capable offense, you have to wonder how the defense is going to react. We all know Brady and company are going to go for some big time points and they don't stop coming. Check their pre-season games. The Patriots scored a combined 98 points in four pre-season games the last month or so which is quite a bit compared to Buffalo managing only 72 total combined points in 5 pre-season games. Tonight we see the Patriots debut of RB Fred Taylor who is here to fill sort of a Corey Dillon type of role. I think Taylor is going to have a lot of success running in a limited role but that will come later in the year when the Pats are dealing with injuries or when some of their guys get tired. I think the x-factor for the Bills defense is Kawika Mitchell tonight because if the front line can get enough push, Mitchell is going to run wild on the edges and probably force a few turnovers here and there. Again the Bills defensive performance is going to be strongly based on how their offense does and seeing how I think the offense has been purposely hiding a lot of their plays this pre-season, I would say the Bills defense is going to be motivated if they can get some kind of lead.
Okay so the games between these two teams have not really been all that close in recent years. Having said that, I am positive that with the first game of the season being against the Patriots on Monday Night Football of all places, Bills Head Coach Dick Jauron has more than a few tricks up his sleeve. I found it very sketchy that the team looked so inefficient in the pre-season and that they had so many problems scoring points against teams like the Lions. My guess is that most of the playbook has been saved for this very game tonight and believe me when I say that Jauron doesn't look forward to the next few weeks, he is going to do everything in his power to win this first divisional game. If you are a fan of betting on teams that get hot early in the season, look no further than the Bills (who had that 5-0 start last year) as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 1 games (last four season). The Bills are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in September. For those of you so high up on the Patriots winning this game by 20+ points, please understand that New England was not a good home team late in 2007 and all of last season as they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and believe it or not New England has covered the spread in only 1 of their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. OUCH! They are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more. Brady is going to put up MVP type numbers this season but his flow is definitely going to be off in the first game back from the injury. I like the Bills and although some of you think it's a homer play, I think Terrell Owens will be the difference and I think Dick Jauron has a great gameplan cooked up for this. GAME OF THE WEEK!
Trend of the Game: New England is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more.
Buffalo 31, New England 28
Oakland Raiders +9 (5 Units)
The San Diego Chargers jump right into the mix of things tonight as they have one of the easiest Week 1 opponents on the NFL slate this season or do they? I don't know that I would go as far disrespecting the Raiders all that much just yet and I say that because San Diego won by only 10 points here late in September of last year in a game that could have easily gone either way. I also want to talk about all these distractions around this team like the fact that LB Sean Merriman got arrested just last week and how most of the pre-game stuff is going to revolve around him and his problems. The Chargers did not deserve to be in the playoffs last year with their 8-8 SU record but their division is the second worst in the NFL and as champions of the division they got to go to the playoffs. Well that didn't last long as the Chargers were bounced by the Steelers in the second round but they come back again this year hoping to win enough games that they get to have a first round bye this time. One thing is for sure heading into this game and that's the fact that San Diego is going to score some points.They dropped 62 points on the Raiders in 2008 in both meetings combined and I actually see them doing the same this time around. Having said that, the key in this game for Oakland is going to be to score enough points and to anticipate that San Diego is going to score at least 28. I think the Raiders can do it. This is scary offense when you look at it on paper but execution is going to be huge. This is a Monday Night game and we all know that these guys want to shine on National TV. So as much as they can score points, I also think the Raiders defense is going to be a lot more aggressive than they have been the last two seasons because they do have some talent on the D-Line and they have linebackers who can make plays and compliment what I think is an underrated secondary. As long as the coaching staff can push these guys to tackle hard, strip away at the ball and jump into receiving routes, I think they will be fine. They need to send pressure at Rivers all game regardless of how many passes he is actually completing because eventually he is going to get frustrated with the wild Oakland fans. Don't hate on the Raiders defense that much because they got demolished in the pre-season but if they can keep the Chargers to under 30 points in this game, they are going to put their team in a position to keep it close and maybe even win.
The Oakland Raiders are a classic example of a team that is probably never going back to the playoffs until a) some megastar head coach comes in here and rescues these guys or b) they draft the next Tom Brady and find a way to turn talent into points which eventually turns into wins. For me the table is set on this game. If the Raiders offense can score enough points and I am talking about 20+ points, their defense is going to give them a chance to win this game by holding the Chargers to under 30 points. That is my early prediction for this game. The Raiders actually won only 3 games less than the Chargers in 2008 and their 5 wins were a nice start for what should be a 6-7 win season if all goes well. Every college star of the lasrt 3-4 years is on the Raiders and that will eventually turn into something good for this team. RB Darren McFadden, QB Jamarcus Russell and newly drafted WR Derrius Heyward-Bey are all on this team and like I said before, all they need to do is score 20+ points in this game and I think they have at least the cover. I don't know the status of LB Shawne Merriman for this game because of the possible suspension by the league and without Merriman this defense is not the same. Even with that, he is a big time distraction right now and if the Raiders were to ever catch the Chargers sleeping at the wheel, now would be the time. The Chargers were horrendous against the pass in 2008 ranking 31st overall in the league and they haven't really done all that much to change that. I think Russell is going to have a breakout season with the kind of guys he has on offense now to work with and with the addition of Richard Seymour on defense, whenever he eventually reports, I think the Raiders are going to open some eyes this season. This is all about pass rush. If the Raiders can protect Russell and give him enough time to use that cannon of an arm, he is going to make some huge plays in this game. If Merriman and company have open lanes and easy access to the former LSU star, the Raiders are going to go down in flames. Nonetheless I think Oakland is an improved team, there is not as much pressure on them as there was last season and the Raiders trailed only 21-18 with a few minutes left in the game last season until LT decided to take one to the house from 41 yards out which gave the Chargers a 10 point win. Oakland is improved and they compete tonight the way they did in this game just one year ago.
Don't get too crazy about the underdogs I have backed this week because it doesn't happen too often. Having said that, the NFL is the one league where oddsmakers often have a hard time in the first week of the season because we just don't know which teams are better and which teams are going to struggle with their new additions. So underdogs are common in the first week and I like a lot of them. I don't know that I have ever won a bet placed on the Raiders in my entire betting career but I figure if they were able to lead in last year meeting here in Oakland, why the hell not win this game? Yes that's right the Raiders were up 15-3 in the 3rd quarter of their meeting last year before blowing it and losing by 10 points. Anyone who has bet on the Chargers in the past knows that they are a big time red flag when favored on the road and the proof in that lies in their 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The Chargers have covered only 2 of their last 7 road games and again do not bet on them until they head home and are coming off a loss or something. Oakland is never really worth a wager as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday Night Football games but now is the time to bet these guys because all these young college stars are going to make a difference and the Raiders did a fantastic job almost beating the Chargers here early last season. I know San Diego has completely dominated this series covering the spread in something like 11 of the last 12 but trends like that can't last forever and because this game is being played in Week 1 of the season, I have to go with the Raiders who are going to surprise some people. I know the Raiders will cover and I will actually call for them to shock the world and win this game. Two for two tonight is what this is.
Trend of the Game: San Diego is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Oakland 29, San Diego 24
:toast:
WEEK 1 RECAP
Pittsburgh -6.5
Philadelphia -1
Denver +4
Minnesota -4
San Francisco +6.5 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Washington +6.5
Chicago +3.5
Buffalo +10.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Oakland +9
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!
As you can see from the information below, last season was my best ever in NFL betting as I finished with a 61% capping record on the year and finished with an 82% clip in the playoffs. I lost my first two wagers and then won my last 9 wagers of last year's playoffs including a huge play on the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl.
LAST YEAR
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 49-31-3 ATS (+528.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Playoffs: 9-2 ATS (+185.00 Units)
http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=658091
I won't say much more than I post around here for fun and to possibly help others win money. I bring controversy, drama, excitement or whatever you want to call it and I don't mind. All the stuff I write is my own. Sometimes tout sites steal my writeups and post them as their own. Oh well. I often do some of those writeups while drunk, half asleep or completely toasted but I make my selections way before my writeups.
Alright so the goal this season is once again to hit the 100 unit mark. All my wagers are 1 Unit = $100 unless I post otherwise. Let's make some cash this season and let's kick this off on a positive note with some big wins early one.
LETS MAKE SOME CASH!!!
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Thursday, September 10
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (10 Units)
The Tennessee Titans are going to make us a lot of money this season but my gut tells me that it won't start tonight. You cannot just walk into the NFL Champions House on the night they celebrate their success and beat these guys. Don't forget if you are going to back an underdog on the spread, you better like them to win the game as well. I remember Tennessee being one of those teams that I would get screwed going against almost each and every time I bet the other way last year and I also got screwed each and every time I took them. The Titans won 13 games in 2009 and although that is going to be a hard task to follow up on, this team most certainly has the talent to do it but again I don't see that happening. Tennessee lost Albert Haynesworth to free agency this past summer and believe me the blow to the team is a lot bigger than some experts are leading on. Haynesworth was a monster against the run and his presence in the middle was a big part of the Titans run to 13 wins. Defense is not my concern with this Titans team. It's the offense. Sure QB Kerry Collins was amazing last season and sure he won the job early and never looked back but QB Vince Young is actually a distraction that the team doesn't need right now. Sure he is sitting in the shadows and waiting for the day or the few games where Collins messes up and the fans get on the team for Young to start playing but that is all part of football. Again my problem here is that I just don't see how Tennessee is going to score points tonight. The Titans were held to under 20 points in both pre-season games played on the road the last couple of weeks and they still lack a star caliber receiver that can make some big plays and get these guys downfield when they need it the most. Pittsburgh was the #1 defense in the NFL last year and with the re-signing of James Harrison and with pretty much everyone back you can expect a ton of blitzes on Collins tonight and I just don't see how the Titans are going to effectively run the ball or move it in the air. Sure there might be a bit of Super Bowl rust or what not but I think the Steelers are going to be ready and when you neutralize the Titans running game, you should be able to make some plays on the aging Kerry Collins who can't continue his success forever. I think Tennessee is going to be a good team but I just don't think they can win the inside battles tonight.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2008 NFL Super Bowl Champions and they deserved it. Even though I went against them in the Super Bowl and made some nice cash, I was happy to see this team once again raise the championship because you have to admire consistency in the NFL. It's very tough (as we can see with the Lions, Raiders, Bengals and other franchises) to build dynasties and let me tell you that Pittsburgh has something good going here with their second Super Bowl win in the last few years. On that note, I have learned that with NFL betting you always go with your gut and you always back good teams. I know a lot of people talk about Super Bowl hangover and that might be the case had this game been a 1:00pm ET game on Sunday when nobody from the outside is watching but this is the season opener versus a very good Tennessee team and the Steelers do not want to be embarrassed. On that note, you have to also think that Pittsburgh wants a bit of revenge for that 31-14 loss they suffered last December. Sure the game meant nothing to either team but the Titans kept pouring it on and rubbing salt in the Pittsburgh wounds, a game they would have never lost had they played all their starters all game. What I like the most about QB Ben Roethlisberger is that despite having mediocre numbers year in and year out, this guy has heart and he makes some of the biggest plays in the NFL when asked to do so. Need a 4th and 16 to win the game, ask Ben. With a lot more time to throw the ball now that Haynesworth is not on the Titans anymore, expect Big Ben to find some of his big name receivers downfield in this one. Everyone on the Steelers is pretty much healthy which is a big change from last year's squad. I think the Steelers are going to smash the ball down Tennessee's throats for the most part of the first half before opening things up and going for the home run ball in the second half. Do not panic folks. The line is setup perfectly for someone to sneak a cover through the backdoor which I really see happening tonight. We all know how the Steelers roll. They look mediocre for 3 quarters but when the rough gets going, the Steelers do all the talking. Show me the money.
Alright so we are probably in for a long boring game tonight that won't have too many big plays and I actually don't mind that. We all know how methodical the Steelers can be at times and we all know the terrible towels are not going to want to lose their first home game since winning the Super Bowl. Football is not like other sports. In baseball teams can go weeks of playing bad ball after winning a championship the year before and it won't affect their overall season. Same with basketball and same with hockey. However with football the season is so short that one loss can put a serious wrench in your plans and both teams want to avoid that tonight. The last time Tennessee was in Pittsburgh they were a +7 points underdog, it was on September 11, 2005 and the Titans got their asses handed to them to the tune of a 34-7 loss. What's a bit scary about going against Tennessee here is that they covered the spread in all four of their September games in 2007 and all four of their September games in 2008. They are also one of the most profitable underdogs of the last three seasons covering 16 of their last 21 as underdogs. Having said that, Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four years in Week 1 games, they have covered the spread in 5 straight home games dating back to mid last season, they have covered the spread in 24 of their last 32 home games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four appearances on Thursday Night Football. Both teams have been very profitable the last 2-3 seasons but in the end you have to go with the Super Bowl Champs. Open this season with a win please!
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last four appearances on Thursday Night Football
Pittsburgh 27, Tennessee 17
Sunday, September 13
Philadelphia Eagles -1 (10 Units)
I think it's quite funny how people can keep hating on the same teams and same players over and over again. Sure the Eagles signed QB Michael Vick in the off-season and sure that brings controversy but I guarantee you he has some sort of big time impact on the team at some point this season and most Philadelphia fans have already seen that he is a changed man. This is the same Philadelphia team that was one win away from the Super Bowl last year but they ran into the red hot Arizona Cardinals and that was the end of that. The Eagles lost quite a few key members from last year's team as S Brian Dawkins is gone, CB Lito Sheppard is gone, WR Greg Leiws is gone and TE LJ Smith is gone. Having said that, this team has a plethora of young players who can get the job done namely WR Desean Jackson who electrified the NFL with some of his plays in 2008 and the addition of newly drafter WR Jeremy Maclin who is pretty much another version of Jackson. RB Brian Westbrook continues to motor away and I don't think this team will have problems scoring. I don't know exactly what to expect from the Eagles in this game but I know that it will take a few weeks for Julius Peppers to get going (like it always does) and now is the time you want to catch this Panthers team sleeping. They have a solid defense and everyone has them picked first in the NFC South but Philadelphia is still a very good team and I don't see McNabb slowing down in his trek for that one Super Bowl ring before he retires. The Eagles will move the ball effectively and score enough points to support their defense. They should be able to run the ball effectively enough to control some clock and rest the boys in the back.
The Carolina Panthers are usually a team I like to back but I refuse to back them until later on this season when they go on one of those late season runs for the roses. The Panthers were an impressive 12 win team in 2008 and a lot of people had them picked to be in the Super Bowl when all the dust settled but the Panthers never made it past their first playoff game as they also fell victims to the Arizona Cardinals. So we have two teams who went down in the playoffs to the eventual NFC Champions. The team is not all that different than last year and the Panthers are going to try and run the Eagles into the ground in this game with the best rushing tandem in the NFL (DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart) but easier said than done against this Philadelphia defense. The Panthers did not have a first round pick this season and I still don't see how they addressed their issues to stop the run. It will be very difficult for this team to win 12 games again this season and I don't see them surviving Week 1 without their first loss of the year. I know these guys are hungry to get back into the swing of things because of the way they went crashing out of the playoffs but it's tough to win 12 games, lose in the first round of the playoffs and come out playing hard the next time around. I think there is some kind of buzz around the Eagles right now that we don't have with Carolina. Also you have to take into consideration that this offense did not score more than 17 points in any of their pre-season games this year and they did not score 30 points in any of their first four games in 2008 (They scored 30+ a whopping 7 times last season). So with the traditional slow starts on the offensive side of things, I prefer waiting until October to back this team because they won't repeat what they did last season.
Alright so the last time the Eagles came to Carolina for a regular season game was on November 30, 2003 as +1.5 point underdogs, a game that they managed to win 25-16. Since that game the Eagles are 5-1 SU against Carolina beating them in two pre-season home games and two regular season home games so they have somewhat dominated the Panthers over the years. Philadelphia comes into this game with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games played on a grass surface and I have always said that we always get the best out of McNabb when he is playing outdoors and on grass so it makes sense. The Eagles have also dominated NFC opponents the last few seasons going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams from the NFC and they are also one of the best ATS road teams of the last few seasons going 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. Carolina is always going to be a good home team and I have made tons of cash backing these guys at home over the years but it's too early in the season and the home field advantage is somewhat neutralized. The money I made however was betting on this team when favored at home because as underdogs they have not been worth the price going 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and covering the spread in only 2 of their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3 points. I think Andy Reid and the Eagles are hungrier for this game.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Philadelphia 27, Carolina 20
Denver Broncos +4 (5 Units)
The Denver Broncos are not done just yet and although they have already been written off by a bunch of media outlets, I think this team is going to be a lot better than people think. Mike Shanahan has a knack for developing top notch running backs and he has consistently done this over the years. However, Shanahan is gone but he leaves behind a legacy. The Broncos have been successful over the years because of their efficient ground attack that not only produces a ton of yardage and a ton of offense but it also controls the clock, keeps opposing offenses off the field (that's effective against teams that can score) and it's just what the Broncos do. For those who don't know by now, the Broncos selected RB Knoshown Moreno with their first round pick and in his only pre-season action before getting hurt, the former Georgia Bulldog superstar rushed 3 times for 18 yards but then he bummed his knee. I actually think Moreno will be a superstar on this team and the word right now is that he is going to play in this game. I know he's only a rookie but the Bengals have Tank Williams plugging holes on the field now and Shanahan is going to have to keep pounding away at the ground game to set things up for QB Kyle Orton in the air. I saw a bit of pre-season action and I think Orton is going to fit into this system just fine. We all know there is going to be a ton of scoring in this game, the Broncos are going to pound away on the ground until Cincinnati shows they can stop them, which I don't think they can and that should open things up for Orton to find some of his playmaking receivers. I like the Broncos a lot in this one.
The Cincinnati Bengals are one of those teams that are probably always going to suck despite some of their success in recent years. Having said that, this is "supposed" to be the year once again where they do some big things and win some big games but I am not buying that at all. Who knows how long QB Carson Palmer can stay healthy and why are people so sure he is going to come back from his injury and lead this team to more than the 4 wins they had in 2008. WR TJ Houshmandzadeh is gone and although WR Chad Ocho Cinco is still around, Mush was the backbone of this receiving corps and I am not sure how Palmer is going to compensate. Denver is no means a team that can stop opponents from scoring so you can expect some Cincinnati points in this game as well. I do however like the fact that the Broncos brought in Safety and Team Leader Brian Dawkins from the Eagles because he is going to provide some much needed leadership in the secondary. The Broncos also drafter DE Robert Ayers in the first round to shore up their run defense and judging by some of their pre-season results, it's starting to payoff. Denver allowed 136 rushing yards in their first pre-season game, they allowed only 72 rushing yards in their second pre-season game, they allowed 114 rushing yards in their third pre-season game and they allowed only 68 rushing yards in their final pre-season game. Believe me when I say the Broncos are going to be a lot more effective on the defensive side of things and for some reason think it's going to take some time for the Cincinnati offense to get things together here. They lost a few key offensive tackles to free agency and if this thing turns into a shootout, I will take the Broncos offense any day of the week over the Bengals.
Alright so these two teams meet each other every couple of years and it's tough to base anything on past meetings because they have not faced off since 2006 season where Cincinnati went to Denver as a +3 point underdog and managed to keep the game close in a 24-23 loss. The last time Denver was in Cincinnati was back in 2004 when the Bengals found a way to win as a +7 point home underdog. Having said that, the good times were rolling back then for Cincinnati and we haven't see that type of offense of charisma around the team ever since. I took a look at some stats over the past few seasons and it appears that Denver is one of the worst ATS teams of those last few years. They have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 40 games played overall. Can you believe that? No team comes close to that kind of mediocrity over the last few years. So why would I bet on the Broncos here knowing how bad they have been against the spread? Well it's simple. They have made some big time changes. Not only do they have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels but they traded franchise QB Jay Cutler and brought a better attitude to this team. Despite finishing off the 2008 season strongly at home, the Bengals are still only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus AFC opponents and they have covered only 2 of their last 9 games when favored. I made some money on the Bengals last season but as underdogs. You need to know that this team is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Not much more can be said here. The underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings and Denver is a talented bunch that needed some change and they go it. Expect an explosion of points in this game.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Denver 37, Cincinnati 27
Minnesota Vikings -4 (10 Units)
The Minnesota Vikings are arguably the most dangerous team in the NFL right now with the addition of QB Brett Favre who is playing for the most hated team in Green Bay. Putting all that aside, the Vikings were a decent QB away from some very big things in 2008 and I say that because they have some superstar wide receivers, they have the best running back in the NFL, they have once arguably one of the best defensive lines and overall defenses in the NFL and they have a great place to play. Insert one of the best QB's of all-time and are we talking Super Bowl here? The Vikes won 10 games in 2008 but they lost in the first round of the playoffs against the Philadelphia Eagles. All that loss did was leave this team wanting more and with such a good core of players back for this season, they could possibly win 12 games this time around. Brad Childress is now in his fourth season as the head coach of this team and he has this team heading in the right direction that is for sure. What's scary is that the Vikings have four players who caught 40+ passes in 2008 but none of them caught more than 53 passes. Having said that, Brett Favre has yet another weapon to work with as the Vikes drafter Florida WR Percy Harvin who should have an immediate impact. I think the Vikings are going to want to make a statement right out of the gates and that means dialing up some big plays. Cleveland's defense was so-so in 2008. The could stop the pass but couldn't stop the run if their lives depended on it. Not much has changed and that is bad news when the best RB in the NFL is in town and is eager to get the season going. Eric Mangini brought in a ton of former Jets to this Cleveland defense but I don't know what difference that will make. The more AP pounds away on the ground, the more the Browns offense gets cold and I think the Vikings are going to romp. This won't even be close.
The Cleveland Browns are yet another one of those NFL Franchises that are probably never going to be good and trips to the playoffs are going to come once every 10 years if even if so at that. The other teams like that are the Detroit Lions, the Cincinnati Bengals just to name a few. If it makes some of you Cleveland backers feel any better, the Browns managed to score 73 total points in their last three pre-season games combined but the pre-season really doesn't mean jack and I don't see the Browns keeping up with the Vikings in this game. TE Kellen Winslow is gone, WR Joe Juruvicius is also gone and the Browns did not draft an offensive player until the second round of this year's draft. QB Brady Quinn has been named the starter for this team but their only hope to score points at this point is RB Jamal Lewis who is not getting any younger and who is going to have to try and get some yards against the toughest run defense in the NFL. Once the ground game doesn't work for the Browns, Quinn is going to be forced to put the ball in the air but two of his top receivers of the last few seasons are gone and unless WR Braylon Edwards can do it all himself, this team is going to be just as useless as it was in 2008. There is no direction whatsoever with this club. I don't care how much they think they improved on the defensive side of the ball because if your offense is going 3 and out on every possession, your defense is going to suffer. The Browns have nothing that could hurt Minnesota and I see this being one heck of a long afternoon for these guys.
These two teams have only met once in the regular season and that was on November 27, 2005 when the Browns made the trip to the indoor confines of the MetroDome where they lost 24-12 as a +4.5 point underdog. Both teams looked decent at times in the pre-season but on paper Minnesota should have no problems running the Browns into the ground with their solid run attack and all that can do is open things up in the air for Favre to show what he is still made of and shut a bunch of the critics up. I looked back at the last 7-8 seasons of NFL Football and noticed that Minnesota has actually done quite well in Week 1 of the season as they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on Week 1 of the season. I have to be honest and say that I made a ton of cash betting on the lowly Browns last season when short range underdog of 3.5 to 10 points as they have covered five straight games in that range but a lot of those games were on turf and for some reason the Browns are not the same at home. Cleveland is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games played on natural grass, they have failed to cover the spread in Week 1 games four years in a row and they have not covered the spread at home in more than 5 games. AP, Brett and the plethora of talented players on this Minnesota team are going to make an early season statement in this game and I say they win this game huge.
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on Week 1.
Minnnesota 31, Cleveland 9
San Francisco 49ers +6.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The San Francisco 49ers could very well finally have the season they have been talking about having the last 5-6 years. All the pieces of the puzzle are in place and now it's a matter of execution for these guys. The Niners come into this season off a very respectable 7-9 record in 2008 that saw them come quite close to making the playoffs. It would have been nice to have standout WR Michael Crabtree suit up for the team this season but it looks like contract problems are going to keep out and away and Mike Singletary's guys are just going to have to do without him. I know most of the pre-season meant quite a bit to Singletary in terms of preparing for the regular season and that theory showed in their first three games as they beat Denver, Oakland and Dallas. I know the pre-season means nothing but Singletary said he wanted to have a winning attitude around the team heading into the real games and he managed to do just that when his starters were out there. I'll put QB Alex Smith down as the starter for this one and my gut feeling tells me he is going to hold that job down for the most part of this season. At some point in his career this kid has to gut check himself and put himself in a position to be successful. He has a prime time RB to work with in Frank Gore and he has a few receivers with enough experience to make some plays. Even though the Arizona Cardinals made the Super Bowl last year and they were NFC Champions, their defense sucked and 6.5 points is a lot for a season opener. DE Antonio Smith is gone which means the holes will be a lot bigger up front and Gore could really take control of this game early. The only reason the defense wasn't a problem for the Cardinals in the playoffs is because they bent a lot of times but they never broke and that is hard to do on a consistent basis. I think Smith and Gore are going to have a great time moving the ball in this game and I actually expect the Niners to lead for the most part of this season opener.
The Arizona Cardinals are finally back on the field after their Super Bowl loss last February to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's tough to lose a Super Bowl but this team is still good offensively and they still have enough weapons to score 40 points per game. Having said that, their defense was not good last season and it was quite shocking that they managed to keep that defense intact long enough to make it to the Big Dance. Surprisingly enough they did not improve that defense in the off-season and it will pretty much take a miracle for the Cardinals to win 9 games again this season relying solely on their offense to get all the work done. The Cardinals do have the advantage of playing in a complete garbage division of the NFC and that does up their chances of making the playoffs again but now that QB Kurt Warner is signed to a new deal, I don't trust that he is going to have the same kind of season in 2009 as he did in 2008. If Warner plays at a lower level of football this season than he did the last, this team is going to struggle and like I said before, there is a good chance that things go bad and they don't even reach the playoffs. San Francisco is a hungry team and they are not about to lay down and let the Cardinals run or pass all over them. The Niners have Patrick Willis running the show for them on the defensive side of things. They also have LB Takeo Spikes calling the shots in the middle and their secondary looks pretty damn good with CB Nate Clements and CB Michael Lewis. This defensive unit has the potential to be one of the most underrated in the NFL and I think Singletary is going to bring out the best in them this season. Arizona scored 37 points in their pre-season game against Green Bay a few weeks ago but in the other three games they scored a combined total of 16 points and they were shutout by the Denver Broncos in the finale. I just don't like the attitude of this team enough to take them by almost a full touchdown here and I think San Francisco is going to be the surprise team of the early 2009 season. Fade the Cardinals for now!
Now we get down to the real football and I say that because I love divisional matchups in the first week of the season. Not only does it force teams to come into the regular season well prepared but it also forces teams to put their best foot forward or risk falling out of contention early in the season. For all of you who don't remember, the Niners came to Arizona on November 11 of last year and almost beat the Cardinals in a 29-24 loss. They were also here in November of 2007 and actually won that game in overtime on a fumble recovery in the end zone as +10 point underdogs. I also remember placing some large wagers on the Niners last season as underdogs and they are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. I love the way this team finished the season because even though they had a very slim chance of making the playoffs, the used the final games of last season as a building block for the 2009 season and we are going to see that payoff here today. The Cardinals obviously come into this game with quite the ATS resume after their 4-0 ATS run in the playoffs of last season (I was on them for all four games) but when you look back at their regular season games you will see that they are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. They have covered only 3 of their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and it has to be known that San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Arizona. The Road Team has covered the spread in 7 straight meetings between these two teams and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six. How can you not love Singletary and his squad here? UPSET UPSET UPSET!
Trend of the Game: Road Team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams.
San Francisco 34, Arizona 31
Washington Redksins +6.5 (5 Units)
The Washington Redskins come into the 2009 season with some big time expectations and if good things don't happen to this franchise soon, you can bet your bottom dollar we are going to see some changes around here. The Skins did not mess around this off-season as they went out of their way to add the best DT in the NFL Albert Haynesworth. They also added linemen on both sides of the ball in hopes of providing more protection for their passing game and in hopes of generating a much better pass rush than last year. The Skins offense finally got things going in the final three pre-season games of the summer as they were shutout in their opener but righted the ship in time to finish strong. The Skins also improved their D-Line by drafting DE Brian Orakpo early in the first round of the past NFL Draft. All that is left now with these guys is putting together a good product that is going to result in wins and that all starts with QB Jason Campbell. The kid from Auburn takes a lot of flack and he must feel a little bit betrayed by the fact that the Redskins did everything they could to get their hands on QB Jay Cutler but that is in the past and Campbell has shown that with the right coaching he can be a good quarterback in this league. He has a top notch set of WR's to work with and he one of the best running backs of the last few years in RB Clinton Portis. We can all agree that the Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and that they are going to be tough up front but Campbell is good on his feet, he was a bit flustered here in 2008 but he has more experience now and I expect him to buy some time, move out of the pocket and find some of his big name receivers downfield. The Giants have a weak secondary so why the heck not. It's really tough to replace guys like CB Sam Madison, S Sammy Knight and S James Butler. Campbell actually played really well here last September but the Redskins could not seal the deal. With an even weaker secondary than last year, Campbell should really be able to find his receivers downfield and move those chains and score more than the 7 points they put on the board in that game.
The New York Giants of 2009 do not look at all like the New York Giants that won the Super Bowl during the 2007 season. Nothing at all. WR Plaxico Burress is going to jail, WR Armani Toomer is gone, WE David Tyree is also gone despite being the only reason the Giants won the Super Bowl and things are just not the same. The Giants still have one of the best teams in the NFL and I don't doubt they are going to win their Division but this is a tough way to start the season. The Washington Redskins went out of their way and paid $100 million dollars to acquire Albert Haynesworth so you can bet your bottom dollar QB Eli Manning is going to get sick of this guy before he can even reach halftime of this game. Even with all the distractions last season the Giants managed to win 12 games and like I already said they have a good team. However, their home win over the Redskins last season was a sloppy one to open the season and I somewhat expect the Giants to be just as lackluster in this game. It's only natural that good teams take a bit of time to get going but the difference between the Redskins defense in 2008 and the Redskins defense in 2009. The additions of Brian Orakpo and Albert Haynesworth confirms that the Giants will not go off for 154 rushing yards like they did last year in this matchup and had it not been for Brandon Jacobs rushing for 116 yards in that game, I can promise you it would have been a lot closer. Manning was only 19 of 35 in that game for 216 passing yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Redskins secondary is just as solid this time around and when the Skins force Manning to throw the ball a lot more than he wants to, I can promise you the mistakes are going to happen and the Skins are going to make some big plays defensively. Just think of it this way guys. Washington lost by 9 here last season. Now they add Haynesworth and Orakpo and believe me they can inch closer to actually winning this game with their defense.
From what I can see in past meetings, the Redskins have never had much success winning games here in New York. They kept their season opening road loss to the Giants close but failed to cover the +4.5 last year and the second time around the Skins lost by 16 as +3.5 home underdogs. If they are going to have any kind of success this season, losing twice to the Giants is not acceptable and this is by far the biggest game of Washington's young season. The Giants actually looked awful in the pre-season, finishing off with an 0-3 ATS record after beating Carolina in the opener. I am not a big fan of Jason Campbell or betting on Washington at all for that matter. However, I do remember that they play much better in September and early on in the season than they do when the rough gets going. Washington is actually 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in September. The Giants were the same in 2008 and they have covered 4 of their last 5 games played in September but I cannot back them knowing how much experience they lost in their secondary. We all know this is going to be a low-scoring game and as much as the Skins have disappointed their backers in this series the last couple of years, you cannot hide from the fact that the road team has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings. I like the Skins to break trend here and you would actually be surprised how this team performs with their new defensive prizes. I smell another upset.
Trend of the Game: Road Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.
Washington 17, NY Giants 16
Chicago Bears +3.5 (10 Units)
The Chicago Bears can either be your best friend (gambling wise obviously) or they can totally screw you over. That was the case when QB Kyle Orton was in charge. Something to keep in mind. Please keep an eye on Orton's performance earlier today because if he goes lights out and the Broncos find a way to win in Cincinnati (like I think they will), you and I both know that QB Jay Cutler is going to want to win himself and he is going to do everything he can to match that performance. Actually, regardless of what Orton does I think Cutler is out to shut people up and this could be one his best performances in the NFL if he really wants to get the ball rolling. He spent so much time defending his comments while in Denver that the only thing left for him to do is perform on the National Stage which he is about to do. Do not underestimate the Bears ladies and gentlemen because they did win 9 games last season and they do bring back the core of their team this season. The only reason this team had problems in 2008 is because their customary tough defense took a year off and they lacked strong play at the QB position. Apparently that has been fixed now with the arrival of Cutler and with both Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher back from injury in the secondary, there is no way this team is going to allow 40+ points a game like they did so many times in 2008. The Packers defense is pretty damn good and they held the Bears to only 3 points in this game last year but again Jay Cutler makes a huge difference in an offense and there is no doubt in my mind that with a healthy defense to back him up, he is going to lead the Bears to a win in this game.
The Green Bay Packers finished with a very disappointing 6-10 SU record in 2008 and that was after a bunch of experts had picked them to win 10 games. So where do they go from there? Sure they had a bunch of injuries on both sides of the ball and sure QB Aaron Rodgers had to do everything himself but if the Packers think they can win this home game by 34 points like they did against the Bears in last years matchup, they have another thing coming. Please do not forget that the most depleted defense in the NFL last season was Chicago's and had they played anywhere close to the level of defense we have seen the last few seasons, that game would have been a lot closer in the end. Again not much has changed with this team from last year's squad so they have the experience of playing together at least. Both of these teams looked pretty good in the pre-season each winning three of their four games and again taking that game from last year where the Bears got smoked at Lambeau is a big mistake. Overall the Packers are not as good as the Bears (healthy that is) which is why I think people who put too much time into last year's matchup are in for one rude surprise in this game. In that game last year the Packers rushed for 200 yards and believe me that is not going to happen this time around. Rodgers had his way in the air as well against the depleted Bears defense and that game was what I would call one of the big reasons why the Bears did not make the playoffs in 2008. As a matter of fact they were one win away from making the playoffs and had it not been for all those injuries on defense who knows what kind of season they would have had. Now that everyone is back I don't see Green Bay scoring more than 21 points in this game. Rodgers is going to be under pressure all night long, RB Ryan Grant is going to find it tough to get through the middle and the Bears are going to be aggressive enough to force a bunch of turnovers. Lovie Smith wants nothing to do with getting blown out in Green Bay two years in a row and believe me when I say that he is going to have his defense ready for this game. Green Bay is a good team but they are not expecting such an improvement from the Bears on the defensive side of things and Jake Cutler is going to be all over this Green Bay secondary looking to make big plays all night.
Alright so I talked enough about the game in Green Bay last year because I know the Bears have not forgotten about it. You don't just lose by 34 points on the road against a divisional rival and forget about it just like that. The Bears did get their revenge in some ways the week before Christmas but it was a sloppy game and it took overtime to do it which means the Packers went 2-0 ATS against Chicago last season. Not bad for a team that had so many injuries and again I expect the Bears to reverse that trend this time around as long as they can stay healthy. From what I can see the Bears pretty much gave up on the season even though they were still in contention late last year but with that being said they should be ready to go with a fresh mindset and a brand new QB in 2009. Green Bay was very successful against NFC North in 2008 which is part of the reason they managed to at least get their 6 wins and in the end they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus NFC North opponents but like I said before, a healthy Bears team with Cutler at the helms is no doubt going to change things. We are talking about a Packers team that has covered the spread in only 2 of their last 7 games and that is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite. The road team has actually done really well in this series covering the spread in 13 of the last 19 (with one push along the way) and the underdog has taken home the bacon in 4 of the last 5. I know Chicago has not been all that reliable against the Packers but with an MVP type QB, something they have never had, I expect everything to change. The Bears will impress, mark my words.
Trend of the Game: Road Team is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
Chicago 23, Green Bay 20
Monday, September 14
Buffalo Bills +10.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Alright so my beloved Buffalo Bills get the first half of the Monday Night Football double header and of course the league once again screws us over and does not give us a Monday Night Football game at home. In case you have not noticed in the past, the Bills are the kind of team that can one day look like a Super Bowl worthy team and they are also the kind that can look like the Detroit Lions on any given Sunday. Can we please not talk about the Bills pre-season loss to those Lions because it really proves my point. Having said of all of that, you cannot take into consideration the Bills pre-season games because not only were they missing WR Terrell Owens but they were getting set to fire the offensive coordinator for being so useless and running the offense like he was in the CFL. It is going to take a lot for the Bills to win this game but it's not impossible. You all remember that Monday Night Game a few years back at home against the Dallas Cowboys as +10 point underdogs. Yup the one that the Bills had won until some bad play calling late in the game totally screwed them over and that rookie kicker for Dallas dropped two from 50+ yards to win the game. QB Trent Edwards is still an underrated QB that is bound to have a breakout season. Will it come this year with TO in the mix of things? It could. Aren't you all excited to see TO versus Randy Moss? I know I am and knowing TO he is going to call his own number really early in this game and the bills are going to be aggressive enough that I see them testing this secondary early. It's too bad the Bills don't have RB Marshawn Lynch to start the year. He was dumb enough to go play with guns in Oakland this past off-season and now he has been suspended by the league. What a lot of people don't know is that the Bills are going to use a ton of no huddle this season which should accelerate the offense and generate a lot more excitement. RB Fred Jackson was outstanding replacing Lynch last year and I see him getting the bulk of the carries here. Why are the Pats getting so much credit on defense anyways? Seymour is gone, Harrison is gone, Vrabel is gone and you meant to tell me that they deserve to be favored by this many points? The Bills don't have a choice but to be aggressive and with two deep threats like TO and WR Lee Evans, I think this team is going to win their first game in New England in God knows how long. Bank on it folks. Upset of the year so far.
The New England Patriots finally get their golden boy back in time for the start of the 2009 season. Without Brady we all know this team is nothing and that showed last season as they finished with an 11-5 SU record, which was not good enough for the playoffs. Having said that, I don't know how quickly Brady can get back to game form after so much time off. I know he looked okay in the pre-season but that doesn't mean anything because he has to play a full four quarters of intense football on Monday Night Football against a division rival. I can't say I'm a huge fan of the Bills defense because they did get scorched quite a few times last year but with everyone healthy this time around we should see some improvements. The Bills allowed only 33 combined points in two games against these Patriots in 2008 but the only problem there is that they scored only 10 combined points of their own in those games and it cost them. Now that the Bills have a more exciting and hopefully a more capable offense, you have to wonder how the defense is going to react. We all know Brady and company are going to go for some big time points and they don't stop coming. Check their pre-season games. The Patriots scored a combined 98 points in four pre-season games the last month or so which is quite a bit compared to Buffalo managing only 72 total combined points in 5 pre-season games. Tonight we see the Patriots debut of RB Fred Taylor who is here to fill sort of a Corey Dillon type of role. I think Taylor is going to have a lot of success running in a limited role but that will come later in the year when the Pats are dealing with injuries or when some of their guys get tired. I think the x-factor for the Bills defense is Kawika Mitchell tonight because if the front line can get enough push, Mitchell is going to run wild on the edges and probably force a few turnovers here and there. Again the Bills defensive performance is going to be strongly based on how their offense does and seeing how I think the offense has been purposely hiding a lot of their plays this pre-season, I would say the Bills defense is going to be motivated if they can get some kind of lead.
Okay so the games between these two teams have not really been all that close in recent years. Having said that, I am positive that with the first game of the season being against the Patriots on Monday Night Football of all places, Bills Head Coach Dick Jauron has more than a few tricks up his sleeve. I found it very sketchy that the team looked so inefficient in the pre-season and that they had so many problems scoring points against teams like the Lions. My guess is that most of the playbook has been saved for this very game tonight and believe me when I say that Jauron doesn't look forward to the next few weeks, he is going to do everything in his power to win this first divisional game. If you are a fan of betting on teams that get hot early in the season, look no further than the Bills (who had that 5-0 start last year) as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 1 games (last four season). The Bills are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in September. For those of you so high up on the Patriots winning this game by 20+ points, please understand that New England was not a good home team late in 2007 and all of last season as they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and believe it or not New England has covered the spread in only 1 of their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. OUCH! They are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more. Brady is going to put up MVP type numbers this season but his flow is definitely going to be off in the first game back from the injury. I like the Bills and although some of you think it's a homer play, I think Terrell Owens will be the difference and I think Dick Jauron has a great gameplan cooked up for this. GAME OF THE WEEK!
Trend of the Game: New England is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more.
Buffalo 31, New England 28
Oakland Raiders +9 (5 Units)
The San Diego Chargers jump right into the mix of things tonight as they have one of the easiest Week 1 opponents on the NFL slate this season or do they? I don't know that I would go as far disrespecting the Raiders all that much just yet and I say that because San Diego won by only 10 points here late in September of last year in a game that could have easily gone either way. I also want to talk about all these distractions around this team like the fact that LB Sean Merriman got arrested just last week and how most of the pre-game stuff is going to revolve around him and his problems. The Chargers did not deserve to be in the playoffs last year with their 8-8 SU record but their division is the second worst in the NFL and as champions of the division they got to go to the playoffs. Well that didn't last long as the Chargers were bounced by the Steelers in the second round but they come back again this year hoping to win enough games that they get to have a first round bye this time. One thing is for sure heading into this game and that's the fact that San Diego is going to score some points.They dropped 62 points on the Raiders in 2008 in both meetings combined and I actually see them doing the same this time around. Having said that, the key in this game for Oakland is going to be to score enough points and to anticipate that San Diego is going to score at least 28. I think the Raiders can do it. This is scary offense when you look at it on paper but execution is going to be huge. This is a Monday Night game and we all know that these guys want to shine on National TV. So as much as they can score points, I also think the Raiders defense is going to be a lot more aggressive than they have been the last two seasons because they do have some talent on the D-Line and they have linebackers who can make plays and compliment what I think is an underrated secondary. As long as the coaching staff can push these guys to tackle hard, strip away at the ball and jump into receiving routes, I think they will be fine. They need to send pressure at Rivers all game regardless of how many passes he is actually completing because eventually he is going to get frustrated with the wild Oakland fans. Don't hate on the Raiders defense that much because they got demolished in the pre-season but if they can keep the Chargers to under 30 points in this game, they are going to put their team in a position to keep it close and maybe even win.
The Oakland Raiders are a classic example of a team that is probably never going back to the playoffs until a) some megastar head coach comes in here and rescues these guys or b) they draft the next Tom Brady and find a way to turn talent into points which eventually turns into wins. For me the table is set on this game. If the Raiders offense can score enough points and I am talking about 20+ points, their defense is going to give them a chance to win this game by holding the Chargers to under 30 points. That is my early prediction for this game. The Raiders actually won only 3 games less than the Chargers in 2008 and their 5 wins were a nice start for what should be a 6-7 win season if all goes well. Every college star of the lasrt 3-4 years is on the Raiders and that will eventually turn into something good for this team. RB Darren McFadden, QB Jamarcus Russell and newly drafted WR Derrius Heyward-Bey are all on this team and like I said before, all they need to do is score 20+ points in this game and I think they have at least the cover. I don't know the status of LB Shawne Merriman for this game because of the possible suspension by the league and without Merriman this defense is not the same. Even with that, he is a big time distraction right now and if the Raiders were to ever catch the Chargers sleeping at the wheel, now would be the time. The Chargers were horrendous against the pass in 2008 ranking 31st overall in the league and they haven't really done all that much to change that. I think Russell is going to have a breakout season with the kind of guys he has on offense now to work with and with the addition of Richard Seymour on defense, whenever he eventually reports, I think the Raiders are going to open some eyes this season. This is all about pass rush. If the Raiders can protect Russell and give him enough time to use that cannon of an arm, he is going to make some huge plays in this game. If Merriman and company have open lanes and easy access to the former LSU star, the Raiders are going to go down in flames. Nonetheless I think Oakland is an improved team, there is not as much pressure on them as there was last season and the Raiders trailed only 21-18 with a few minutes left in the game last season until LT decided to take one to the house from 41 yards out which gave the Chargers a 10 point win. Oakland is improved and they compete tonight the way they did in this game just one year ago.
Don't get too crazy about the underdogs I have backed this week because it doesn't happen too often. Having said that, the NFL is the one league where oddsmakers often have a hard time in the first week of the season because we just don't know which teams are better and which teams are going to struggle with their new additions. So underdogs are common in the first week and I like a lot of them. I don't know that I have ever won a bet placed on the Raiders in my entire betting career but I figure if they were able to lead in last year meeting here in Oakland, why the hell not win this game? Yes that's right the Raiders were up 15-3 in the 3rd quarter of their meeting last year before blowing it and losing by 10 points. Anyone who has bet on the Chargers in the past knows that they are a big time red flag when favored on the road and the proof in that lies in their 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The Chargers have covered only 2 of their last 7 road games and again do not bet on them until they head home and are coming off a loss or something. Oakland is never really worth a wager as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday Night Football games but now is the time to bet these guys because all these young college stars are going to make a difference and the Raiders did a fantastic job almost beating the Chargers here early last season. I know San Diego has completely dominated this series covering the spread in something like 11 of the last 12 but trends like that can't last forever and because this game is being played in Week 1 of the season, I have to go with the Raiders who are going to surprise some people. I know the Raiders will cover and I will actually call for them to shock the world and win this game. Two for two tonight is what this is.
Trend of the Game: San Diego is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Oakland 29, San Diego 24
:toast:
WEEK 1 RECAP
Pittsburgh -6.5
Philadelphia -1
Denver +4
Minnesota -4
San Francisco +6.5 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Washington +6.5
Chicago +3.5
Buffalo +10.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Oakland +9
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!
