MistaFlava's NFL Pre-Season Week 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups + Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2022 NFL Football Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

Going to be betting some pre-season games here and here. Not full slates and relatively small wagers for those interested.

Would love some insight from anyone who can offer it as we navigate the wild weeks before the start of the Regular Season.

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Thursday, August 11


New England Patriots +3 (10 Units)

No chance you go against Billy B coming off a pretty mediocre regular season. I say that because the legendary coach is notorious for pre-season performances and wanting to win games. Losing football games is just not part of his DNA. New England is 9-2 SU in the last three NFL Pre-Seasons and they went a perfect 3-0 SU last year so why are they underdogs? Sure the Giants have a ton of young talent but are they going to play beyond the first series or at all tonight? I don't think so. The fans will be in attendance and excited for the upcoming season in Foxboro in what is arguably the best division in the NFL. Also it just hit me that former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is the new Giants Head Coach and if anyone knows his tendencies inside out it has to be Belichik. Right? I think so. Take a look back at the Patriots pre-season games last season and they crushed opponents. The only reason this line has the Giants as a favorite is because the Giants will be playing QBs Tyrod Taylor and Davis Webb for the majority of this game. Based on what we saw from the Patriots without Tom Brady last year I have to go with them as underdogs in this pre-season opener. Catch this game on NFL Network if you're dying to see some football.

Trend of the Game: New England is 9-3 SU in their last 12 Pre-Season Games


New England 23, NY Giants 17




Baltimore Ravens -3 (10 Units)

Most people are not aware of this but if you read anything football related and follow the pre-season on any level, you will know that the Baltimore Ravens come into this game having not lost in the pre-season since 2015 and they are on a 20 game unbeaten streak. Easily the most impressive team and coach. The Ravens are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 pre-season games under John Harbaugh. We all know how much the Ravens struggled at the end of the 2021 season so one would assume they come into the pre-season wanting to get back to winning ways right away and not take their first L since 2015 under Harbaugh in the pre-season. That's my guess. The quarterbacks for Tennessee tonight are going to be Malik Willis and Logan Woodside. The Ravens have been built on defense for years now under Harbaugh and that should be no different in this game and I could easily see them forcing the Titans QBs into quite a few mistakes and turnovers tonight. Running the show for the Ravens at QB will Tyler Huntley who is no slouch and a much better quarterback than the two on the other side of the ball tonight. Until Harbaugh starts losing pre-season games you can't go against him.

Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 36-15-1 ATS in John Harbaugh's last 52 Pre-Season games.


Baltimore 27, Tennessee 6

 

[G-Man!]

Congrats Flava! 2-0 already!

BOL Brother. Lets roll!
Looking forward to a solid year!

 

[Hottytoddy18]

Great Job Flava! Welcome back! Wish you the best this season, thanks for sharing!

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava......always appreciate your time and effort with your plays....
here's to a solid season buddy....BOL.....indy

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...


Friday, August 12


Detroit Lions ML -145 (10 Units)

Alright I have to make this bet right now on the simple fact of watching Hard Knocks Episode 1 and enjoying the fuck out of it. Joke. All jokes aside I think this team is up on the up up and although we can't see everything on the actual show, they had some really close losses in 2021 and are due for somewhat of a bounce back season. Both these teams lost all three of their pre-season games in 2021 but if you look at the results the Lions were a lot closer than the Falcons in those games and probably deserved to win one or two of them. Atlanta is actually 1-15 SU in their last 16 pre-season games and obviously don't care about these games as a franchise. The reports have the starters for both teams playing an entire quarter tonight. I hate going back to the show Hard Knocks but we saw what winning means to some of these players (Jamaal Williams speech is what I am referring to) and I will bank on team mentality tonight. I'm going Lions here to win. Falcons suck in the pre-season and have for years now.

Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 1-15 SU in their last 16 Pre-Season games.


Detroit 31, Atlanta 13




Jacksonville Jaguars ML -125 (10 Units)

I mean I know it's the Pre-Season but the fact that I am on the Jaguars and Lions is really scary. Would not be for me in the Regular Season but this is the pre-season and I am going to take a shot in the dark. The entire world is going to be on Cleveland for this game and the Vegas numbers have it at around 70%+ or so. The key aspect everyone is forgetting about in this game because they are blinded by the fact that QB Deshaun Watson is going to be making his long awaited Browns debut, is that the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing their second game of the Pre-Season having already played in the Hall of Fame Game and getting some time and experience on the field. That's huge. The Browns are kind of a mess with the whole Watson situation and he has not played a real game in forever. That's concerning. We also get to see QB Trevor Lawrence play tonight after not playing in the HOF Game and although I don't expect much from either team (could be low scoring) I think the Jaguars will come out on top and want to leave with some momentum.

Trend of the Game: Jacksonville has already played one Pre-Season Game this pre-season (had nothing else)


Jacksonville 17, Cleveland 14




San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (10 Units)

Look no further than Aaron Rodgers comments the other day that he wishes he never had to suit up for Pre-Season Games unless he plays the entire game to know how much the Packers care about this one. They don't. San Francisco is playing at home in front of their fans and I feel have more interest in games like the game tonight. When looking at stats the Green Bay Packers are 2-5 ATS in their 7 pre-season games under current Head Coach Matt Lafleur and have not been a good team to back. I'm really intrigued to see what San Francisco does with QB Tre Lance who could play quite a bit of football tonight or may only see a few series. Either way I'm banking on some pretty exciting stuff when he does play and we already know the Packers don't care. All of that is enough for me to take a shot in the dark on the Niners tonight. The Pre-Season is pretty much a coin toss but ATS + SU stats do mean something and Lafleur is not a pre-season coach.

Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in Pre-Season games under Head Coach Matt Lafleur.


San Francisco 27, Green Bay 14

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava......appreciate the early thought's buddy....
on these with you.....indy

 

[MistaFlava]

I mean what could go wrong betting on 1) Money Lines in the Pre-Season and 2) The Lions and Jaguars?

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...


Saturday, August 13


Buffalo Bills +1.5 (10 Units)

Coaching is everything in Pre-Season games and yesterday I made the mistakes of following franchise trends over coaching trends when I took the Lions to beat the Falcons who had lost 15 of their last 16 Pre-Season Games. So far this Pre-Season coaching trends have been on fire and that should continue today with Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott being a huge pre-season guy. McDermott has led the Bills to a 7-0 SU record in their last seven Pre-Season games while going 7-0 ATS in each of those games. Impressive stuff and it goes to show how seriously some teams take the pre-season when it comes to a depth perspective. Once QB Josh Allen leaves this game he will be replaced by QB Case Keenum who is an experienced veteran and should put up some numbers. If you look at the Bills depth chart they are one of the deepest teams in the league by far and should have decent talent on the field this entire game. Matt Ryan makes his (short) Indianapolis debut today but I think this offense will be very basic from the very beginning and we won't see much from some of their offensive stars. Bills are itching for a win of any kind after that devastating loss to KC last year and they'll take it out on the Colts in this one.

Trend of the Game: Buffalo is 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven Pre-Season games under Sean McDermott


Buffalo 31, Indianapolis 10




Miami Dolphins -1 (10 Units)

Oh yes super stoked for this one and I love the betting line. We already know Tom Brady is not playing a single down in this game or maybe any Pre-Season game for that matter so that can be left alone and I don't think we see much or any of Tua and some of the other Miami star players either in this one. Too much at risk. Don't forget these two teams have been practicing against each other all week down in Florida. I will give a bit of perspective on what quarterbacks you are going to see on both sides of the ball here and then you can make your own decisions on which team you want to bet on. Right now it looks like Tampa Bay is going to roll out QBs Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin and Kyle Trask (remember this guy as a Florida Gator) for the majority of this game while Miami will be sending out QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson who are both very capable signal callers to say the least. As the Mike McDaniel era begins in Miami I think they'll have a lot more interest in kicking off the Pre-Season with a big win and this spread is perfect for that. I'll take a shot here.

Trend of the Game: None


Miami 23, Tampa Bay 6




Los Angeles Chargers -3 (10 Units)

I can't wait to see all the fight videos in the stands for this battle of the Los Angeles teams even though both are fairly new to the city the rivalry will likely never die and neither will fans acting crazy in the stands on a Saturday afternoon/evening. Sean McVay has a new (huge) contract with the Los Angeles Rams so it's likely he will continue to operate the way he has operated in the past and may even try to copy what he did last year in the Rams Super Bowl winning season. That would include going 0-3 SU in the Pre-Season which is a bit of a stretch but it's very possible. For those wondering who is going to play Quarterback in this game with Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford not really options at all to be considered, you are going to be watching Chase Daniel + Easton Stick for the Chargers and you will be watching Bryce Perkins + Luis Perez (I swear I remember this guy from XFL Games a few years ago or something like that) for the Rams. Exciting stuff right? These two teams played each other in the Pre-Season last year and the Chargers won 13-6 so take that with a grain of salt. I like the Chargers again in this one.

Trend of the Game: LA Rams are 0-3 SU in their last three Pre-Season games under Sean McVay


LA Chargers 24, LA Rams 13

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.....here's to a solid and profitable weekend buddy....
BOL with your action today.....indy

 

[TK74]

Mr Flava
Been following your plays for years and grateful every season. Looking forward to another great season.