Mistaflava's NFL Football Week 10 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL Record: 54-36-4 ATS (+233.00 Units)

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 9-7-1 ATS (+105.00 Units)


Had a good week last week despite losing play of the week on the Patriots but came back with a big on win on Monday Night Football and excited for the weeks to come. One of my best NFL seasons to date and looking to continue this week.


Wishing everyone a profitable week, let's make some money!

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Thursday, November 7



Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 (10 Units)

I went against the Raiders last week at home with my play on Lions +2.5 and that was a big mistake. The Raiders are not as bad as many "experts" predicted them to be so you have to respect that but I am going back to the well here despite coming up empty last time. This is such a massive game in the AFC West with the Chiefs stumbling a little bit the last couple of weeks and as the Chargers get healthier I have more confidence betting on them. They are coming off a massive 26-11 road win over the Green Bay Packers just four days ago where they put together their most impressive overall performance of the season outyarding Green Bay by a whopping 258 total yards in that game. Again that was their best performance of the season by far. So far this season the Chargers have been one of the better "road" bets in the NFL. Aside from their 13-10 early season loss at Detroit they then went to Miami and won by 20 followed by a close loss at Tennessee (Push) and a massive win at Chicago as a +3.5 point underdog. The Raiders despite playing well at Houston and playing well in their win over the incompetent Detroit Lions last week have still been outyarded in two straight games now and that's going to cost them. The Chargers offense is more polished and less immature than the Lions. In their last three games the Los Angeles Chargers are averaging 21 points per game but they have done that on a whopping 6.3 yards per play. Their Red Zone play has been a disaster hence the 21 points per game but the Raiders are not good in the Red Zone and their last three opponents have scored touchdowns 63.6% of the time in there. The running game has been a non-factor for the Chargers in their last three games but they are still winning games. Don't expect that to change tonight because the Raiders can actually stop the run (3.7 yards per carry and 93.3 rushing yards per game their last three games). So to the air we go. QB Philip Rivers has a QB Rating of 99.6 in his last three games and has completed 67.4% of his passes for 8.5 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 1 interception in those games and has more maturity than Matthew Stafford had last week. Oakland's defense is one of the worst in the NFL and in their last three games they have allowed 31 points per game and 447.3 total yards of offense on 7.2 yards per play. YIKES! The Chargers won't miss a chance to just pile it on in this one. Also consider the Raiders 3rd down defense has allowed opponents to convert 48.6% of the time in their last three games. On the flip side of the ball the Raiders have been very good on offense averaging 26.3 points per game in their last three games and averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play in those games but tonight they run into a VERY solid Chargers defense who have allowed only 5.5 yards per play their last three games and only 16.7 points per game in those games. A big part of the Raiders offense is the running game as they carry the ball 30 times per game for 4.7 yards per carry their last three games but the Chargers last three opponents average only 3.9 yards per carry. In the air the Raiders have not seen pass rush like that of the Chargers (9 sacks in last three games) in a while. I also really like the 3rd down defense of the Chargers (37.1% conversion rate last three games) and their Red Zone defense (55.6% touchdowns scored) against one of the best 3rd down and Red Zone offenses in the league the last few weeks. Are you still comfortable going with a Raiders team averaging 9.7 penalties per game their last three games which has cost them 97.7 penalty yards per game? Didn't think so. I'm going with the Chargers tonight.

The Chargers came here in 2018 and completely shut down the Raiders in a convincing 20-6 win as a -10.5 point favorite. Oh my have times changed for the Chargers to only be favored by 1-2 points this time around. The books have suddenly fallen in love with the Raiders for some reason despite picking them to win only 3 games before the season started. I think the Raiders have been impressive but the Lions should have beat them last week. Also keep in mind that the Chargers and Philip Rivers are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday Night Football games and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games played in November dating back to the last two seasons. How about the fact that Rivers and the Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games? To contest that is the Raiders 6-1 ATS mark in their last seven home games but the Raiders coming off a straight up win has always been a fade. They've covered the spread in only 17 of their last 56 games coming off a straight up win. The Chargers have covered the spread in their last four visits to Oakland and the Road Team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Rivers and the Chargers bring this Oakland team back down to earth tonight.

Trend of the Game: Los Angeles Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday Night Football games.


Los Angeles 31, Oakland 16






more to come...

 

[RobBo7]

Loved the Chargers as well...losing Okung early hurt...looking forward to your analysis on future plays...BOL going forward....RB7

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Sunday, November 10




Buffalo Bills +3 (10 Units)

I'm honestly in shock at how many people are backing the Bills in this game (close to 68% is what I can see right now) because I truly thought people would like the Browns to finally have a good game but here we go. The Bills are coming off a massive home win over the Washington Redskins last week where they covered the -11 point spread after getting crushed the week before (at home) against the Eagles as a -1 point favorite. I love the Bills in an underdog role. So far this season they are 3-0 ATS as an underdog covering the spread in a big season opening win at the Jets, covering against the Patriots at home a few weeks later and then winning in Tennessee as a +3.5 point underdog. You better believe the Bills Mafia is traveling a few hours across the I-90 to be at this game. The Bills have had their fair share of offensive issues and average only 5.1 yards per play their last three games but that has equaled 22.7 points per game. On the road they average 5.8 yards per play but only 19.7 points per game. Nonetheless this Browns defense is one of the weakest the Bills have faced this season as they allow 27.7 points per game their last three games on 358 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play. Some people say QB Josh Allen has struggled but he has a QB Rating of 96.3 in his last three games and the Bills have turned the ball over only 1 time during that span. The Browns can't stop the run (4.4 yards per carry last three games) so expect another heavy dose of RB Devin Singletary. The last three quarterbacks to face this Browns defense have averaged a QB Rating of 108.7 and the Browns have only 2 takeaways in those games while allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt. This could be the game the Bills offensive playbook for big plays opens up. They have converted 40.5% of the time on 3rd down the last three games and are scoring touchdowns 71.4% of the time in the Red Zone in those games. Allen and the Bills running backs should be able to grab yardage with their legs all day and then make big plays in the air. Buffalo has a breakout game on offense.

The Cleveland Browns are in shambles right now and I saw a graphic yesterday showing that Oakland Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow has more touchdown catches this season than Odell Beckham Junior. I mean what the actual F....The Browns played well enough to win in Denver last week outyarding the Broncos by 49 total yards but they found a way to lose again and have now lost four straight games coming into this one. It's still hard to believe or understand how this team beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road by 15 at the end of September but they did and they have not won a game since. Things are starting to boil over in Cleveland. I rank the Browns offense as a bit more effective than the Bills as they come into this game averaging 5.8 yards per play in their last three games but that has resulted in only 20 points per game which is less than the Bills and their 5.1 yards per play in that same time span. One could make the argument that the Browns can run this entire game and have success because Buffalo has allowed 4.8 yards per carry their last three games but away from this season the Bills allow less than 100 rushing yards per game and only 4.4 yards per carry. Also with their defense stopping absolutely nobody the Browns will be forced to throw. It's not impossible against the Bills and they've come back down to earth defensively the last three weeks but their last three QB opponents have an average QB Rating of 89.6. Baker Mayfield has a QB Rating of 73.3 in his last three games and has thrown 4 interceptions in those games while taking 7 sacks. The Bills defense has forced only 3 turnovers their last three games but that's about to change against a Browns team that has turned the ball over 7 times in their last three games. I also have to compare the 3rd down offense of the Browns (34.3% the last three games) and their ability to score touchdowns in the Red Zone (36.4% in the last three games) and it's not even close to being as effective as the Bills. Also consider the 9 penalties per game Cleveland has taken the last three weeks. I'm on the Bills and their defense is finally going to force some big turnovers.

This is pretty much a highway series and you're going to have a mix of disgruntled Browns fans combined with the Bills Mafia will I know for a fact you are all familiar with and have seen on TV smashing through tables and doing all sorts of crazy stuff. When the Bills went to Tennessee a few weeks ago and won the players said it felt like a Home Game they had so many fans there so with the short drive across I-90, expect a Bills friendly atmosphere. It's no wonder Buffalo is 3-0 ATS on the road this season and 4-0 ATS in their last four away games. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Cleveland on the other hand are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have covered the spread in only 9 of their last 32 home games. Say what? The Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I'm going with the Bills and the Bills Mafia to move to 7-2 on the season and put pressure on the Patriots in the Division after they lost to Baltimore last Sunday Night. Josh Allen has one of his best game of the season. Mark it down.

Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record on the season.


Buffalo 28, Cleveland 17





more to come...

 

[G-Man!]

Not so fast my friend. See my post today. Browns have some things they've been missing for this game

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...





Tennessee Titans +6 (10 Units)

The Kansas City Chiefs got some Christmas Morning type news a few days ago when it was made official that QB Patrick Mahomes was going to start this game after a 2 game absence. As is stands right now the Chiefs are the "Sucker Bet" of the week with some 75% of tickets in Vegas betting on them in both spread bets and in parlays and that's always dangerous. I try and stay away from these if I like the team with all the public action but ironically I like the other team this time. The Chiefs are 4-0 SU on the road this season but aside from Oakland game where they won by 18, they have not dominated even with Mahomes. In their win at Jacksonville they outyarded the Jags by 63 total yards. In the win at Detroit they were outyarded by 9 total yards and in the win over Denver a few weeks ago they won the yardage battle by 66 total yards. Not dominating is the key. I don't even need to talk about the Chiefs high powered offense and what they can do because they average over 30+ points away from home and average 6.7 yards per play in those games but Tennessee has been good defensively at home where they have allowed only 19 points per game on 338.8 total yards of offense and only 5.4 yards per play. Even in their last three games this defense has been playing their best football. On the ground they have allowed only 100.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.6 yards per carry. In the air their last three opponents are completing only 54.9% of their passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt but have an average QB Rating of only 84.8 in those games. The Titans have 7 sacks, 3 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries (5 forced) in their last three games and if Mahomes and this offense are even just a bit rusty it's going to be a problem. The Chiefs were a Red Zone disaster without Mahomes scoring TD's only 16.7% of the time. Watch out for this very underrated Titans defense, they've been good at home and they won't make it easy on the Titans today.

The Tennessee Titans are 4-5 on the season coming into this game which means they are still alive and they actually played a lot better than the final score would indicate in Carolina last week where they outyarded the Panthers by 66 total yards yet somehow lost by 10 points. The last time QB Marcus Mariota played a down was in the 16-0 loss to Denver. Since being replaced with QB Ryan Tannehill as the starting QB, this team has beat both the Chargers and Buccaneers at home and then gone to play well in Carolina last week. Had Mariota still been starting for the Titans I wouldn't be touching this game but he's not and Tannehill has been under the radar effective completing 71.8% of his passes for almost 1000 passing yards, 6 Touchdown Passes, 4 Interceptions and a QB Rating of 99.7. What I can tell you about Tannehill is his decisions in the Red Zone have been phenomenal and the Titans have scored Touchdowns on 100% of the drives that have entered the Red Zone their last three games (all Tannehill). This is huge in a game like this because the Chiefs are a go for broke type defense. They send pass rush package after pass rush package and have an incredible 17 sacks in their last three games but in the Red Zone opponents are scoring touchdowns 70% of the time against them the last three weeks and they force little to no turnovers (0 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery) in those last three games. The last three quarterbacks they have faced have an average QB Rating of 95.0 despite the pressure up front (something Tennessee has struggled with) but the Titans have a new confidence about them and it's showing even on 3rd downs where they have converted 41.2% of the time the last three games. Tannehill has been great since being inserted as the starter and as long as his offensive line can pickup the pressure he'll make some big plays downfield and go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs offense.

I already called this the "Sucker Bet" of the afternoon because the world is on the Chiefs when we don't even know what to expect from Patrick Mahomes. The line is below a touchdown which is like dangling a carrot in front of a rabbit only to pull it away. This won't be so simple so buyers beware. Also consider that the Titans have beaten the Chiefs the last three times these teams have played each other although this is the first time Mahomes faces these guys. For as good as they have been there is no consistency spread wise with this Chiefs and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight up win. I rarely bet on the Titans but this is a great spot to take them and they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with Kansas City. I think this is a close game where the Titans have no problems scoring points and the Chiefs will at some point have to play from behind. I'm going with the huge upset, Titans win this game and Ryan Tannehill goes to 3-1 as the starter of this team.

Trend of the Game: Kansas City is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up win.


Tennessee 27, Kansas City 24




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



New York Jets +3 (10 Units)

The New York Giants are at a point in their season where it's time to just let the young guys play as their offense features a bunch of rookies or second year players (good ones at that) and they're going to live and die by these guys the rest of the way. My only issue with that is for young players to develop and play well you need some veteran presence and the Giants won't have that today as Tight End Evan Engram will miss the game and WR Sterling Shepard continues to miss time with an injury. Engram is a big loss for QB Daniel Jones in a big time rivalry game. When was the last time the Giants played well let's be honest? Okay the game in Detroit they played well, covered the spread and then still lost but that was on the road as an underdog. They've been favored 2 times this season and gone 1-1 ATS. The Jets defense is the better defense in this game and that might be all that matters with two struggling offenses. They have allowed a lot of points in their last three games but have also allowed only 5.0 yards per play. The points are because of their offense turning the ball over. The gameplan here is obviously going to be to run Barkley a lot but the Jets defense has allowed only 78.3 rushing yards per game their last three games and only 2.6 yards per carry. This forces the Giants to throw where Jones has been somewhat decent the last three games (QB Rating of 88.2 in those games) but has taken 16 sacks and the Giants as a team have turned the ball over 7 times. It's been a huge issue and with only 2 turnovers forced in their last three games the laws of football averages say the Jets are going to force and come away with some turnovers today. After weeks of playing teams who are good on 3rd downs and in the Red Zone, the Jets finally catch a break as the Giants score touchdowns only 40% of the time in the Red Zone their last three games. No CJ Mosley but the Jets defense will come up with some big plays, including a couple of turnovers.

The Jets played their best game of the year last week in Miami but some huge screw ups cost them the win and now they limp back to New York with 1 win on the year. Having said that, if there is any interest in winning more games and I believe there since RB LeVeon Bell is playing, this would be the game to do it. The Jets did not outyard a single opponent all season until last week at Miami so there is a positive of some kind and now they have their second best chance at outyarding an opponent as the Giants defense is allowing 5.8 yards per play their last three games and have allowed 31.7 points per game in those games. It's hard to back an offense that has struggled the entire season and is averaging only 11 points per game in their last three games but this is a tremendous matchup for them. I talked about the Giants featuring Barkley against a very good Jets run defense and the Jets will no doubt feature LeVeon Bell against a Giants run defense that has allowed 129 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry. It's been a struggle for this running game but they have their best matchup in weeks here. In the air QB Sam Darnold has been a complete disaster with his QB Rating of 47.4 in the last three games throwing 3 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions but things can only get better right? The last three opponents the Giants have faced have complete 69.3% of their passes for 220.7 passing yards per game and 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Protection for Darnold has been a huge issue (12 sacks in last three games) but the Giants don't have much of a pass rush and have only 6 sacks in their last three games. Another big matchup for the Jets in this one is against a Giants defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 47.5% of the time on 3rd downs, which has been another big issue for the Jets. Last week they faced good matchups but the Dolphins used a veteran QB and were out for blood against their old coach and trying to win for the new coach for the first time. This scenario is different and the Jets offense, although it won't be pretty and the numbers won't be huge, will have one of their best games of the season and things will look all good again.

This one is simple for me. If the Jets are going to win another game in 2019 it's against the Giants or against nobody. In a battle of two superstar running backs who will no doubt both be featured in this one, the Jets have by far been the better team against the run lately. Both teams have been absolutely terrible on the spread so don't be completely shocked if this game ends one way or another by a 3 point margin. Having said that, the Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 250+ passing yards in their previous game and only 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 30+ in their previous game. The betting public is all over the Giants here with what seems to be an easy win but again the Jets played one of their best overall games of the year in Miami last week despite the loss and that should carry over into this game as long they don't turn the ball over 4-5 times. I'm calling for the Jets best game of the season and a big win over their rival Giants who have a bit more youth and lack of experience than the Jets.

Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 250+ passing yards in their previous game.


NY Jets 23, NY Giants 13




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

I don't really like any of the 4pm ET games so I'm adding one more at 1pm that was on my radar:



adding...



Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (10 Units)

I'm not playing the contrarian in this one and I'm going with a team that has cashed for me a couple of times this season. The Cardinals are coming off a very good performace in San Francisco a week and a half ago on Thursday Night Football where they took the undefeated Niners to the 4th Quarter and lost 28-25 covering the +10.5 road underdog spread. Sure they were outyarded by a total of 54 yards in that game but not many teams in the league have been able to hang with the undefeated Niners. Coming into this game the Cardinals have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games and right now they are easing back to full health at just the right time. RB David Johnson is expected to play and feature with RB Kenyan Drake and LB Terrell Suggs is also fine to play. The Cardinals come into this game averaging 20.3 points per game in their last three games while averaging 5.6 yards per play in those games but on the road this season they have averaged 6.0 yards per play. Impressive. The running game is averaging 4.8 yards per carry in the last three games and although the Bucs run defense is one of the best in the NFL so far this season, they will have trouble containing the three headed monster of QB Kyler Murray and the two star backs (Drake and Johnson). In the air, Murray should be able to tee off on this Tampa Bay defense who have allowed their last three quarterback opponents to complete 64.8% of their passes for 243.3 passing yards and 6.8 yards per pass attempt while allowing an average QB Rating of 115.1 in those games which is the bottom tier of the league for the last three weeks. The big problem for Arizona in recent weeks has been converting Red Zone appearances to touchdowns but today they go up against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns 76.9% of the time in the Red Zone. The Cardinals have been playing well and covering spreads mostly because they don't turn the ball over (0 turnovers in their last three games only a fumble that they recovered themselves) and have an effective offense averaging 6.0 yards per play away from home. I like the Cardinals to put up big numbers today!

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not playing good football and most people are asking what else is new right? Well it's hard to win football games and cover spreads when your team is allowing 30+ points per game and it doesn't matter how many points you score on offense. The best example I can give would be the Tennessee and Carolina games. The Buccaneers outyarded Carolina by 139 total yards a few weeks ago and lost 37-26 at home. The following week they went to Tennessee and outyarded the Titans by a total of 143 yards and lost 27-23. It's been an issue. So you can talk up this offense all you want for this game but the Arizona Cardinals also have a very good offense. Tampa Bay comes into this game averaging 27.7 points per game in their last three games on 404.7 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. It's no secret that the Cardinals give up a lot of points and give up a lot of yards in recent games but they make up for it with big plays. Nonetheless I won't defend them much because they have not been good this season but...neither has Tamp Bay QB Jameis Winston who in his last three games now has a QB Rating of only 69.1 despite averaging 322.3 passing yards per game. In those last three games he has completed only 56.7% of his passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt but the offensive line has been a disaster and Winston has been sacked 12 times while throwing 7 interceptions. There is no Ryan Fitzpatrick to bail him out this time. Overall the Bucs have turned the ball over an NFL leading 12 times in their last three games, which is insane when you think about it, and the Arizona Cardinals are a team hungry for turnovers having forced only 4 in their last three games which is still pretty decent. The Cardinals pass rush has 9 sacks in the last three games and I think they'll come up with some plays and some stops in what should be a shootout.

I don't play totals anymore but I think the total in this one is a bit low. I just don't see how either defense is going to stop the other team and both teams will probably end up in the 30's or something so that's something to consider. Having said that the turnovers are becoming a major issue for Tampa Bay and there is huge pressure on Jameis Winston in this game. The Cardinals have been off since last Thursday Night and left San Francisco feeling good about themselves and their close game with the undefeated Niners. They come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games versus a team with a losing record at home. Tampa Bay is 0-3 SU at home this season, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games overall and they have covered the spread only 2 times in the last 8 meetings with Arizona. I love what Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense has done (0 turnovers in their last three games) and I hate what Tampa Bay's offense has done (12 turnovers in their last three games). This is a no brainer for me and probably comes down to kicking a game winning FG as time expires. Cardinals for me to win straight up.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.


Arizona 37, Tampa Bay 34





more to come...

 

[Coldweather]

​bol 2 day dawg! cheersgifcheersgifcheersgif

 

[Recon792]

love the writeups - BOL mistaflava

 

[Justin2018]

I’m following all your bets $1/unit...I’m not hoping to be a millionaire betting like this but I hope to gain a few thousands and I’ll be happy. Thanks so much for your picks MF. I’m too busy with Soccer...no times for football and NBA. GL today

 

[MistaFlava]

How about that Titans by 3 prediction? What a game!

 

[mrpickem]

Nice day champ...wish I had BUF +3 but 2.5 sux...lol

 

[MistaFlava]

Nice day champ...wish I had BUF +3 but 2.5 sux...lol

just awful man. I waited until it hit 3 to play it. Hauschka has now missed 5 in a row from 50+. Unacceptable in the NFL.

 

[MistaFlava]

3-0-1 ATS (+30.00 Units) today!


Considering a play on Sunday Night Football but not too sure yet. Congrats to all those who've cashed in the early games.

 

[Biz]

Great job once again

 

[Sincityman6]

Great job once again

biz if you don’t mind me asking where are you posting your plays? You’re always solid

 

[G-Man!]

3-0-1 ATS (+30.00 Units) today!


Considering a play on Sunday Night Football but not too sure yet. Congrats to all those who've cashed in the early games.

Great Rock-solid day my friend.

 

[Justin2018]

Goodjob man!...I might have to quit my job at McDonald flipping burgers now...hahaha

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Dallas Cowboys -3 (10 Units)

If you have not educated yourself about Kirk Cousins and how he plays in Primetime Television games then you might as well not even bet on this game. He is 6-13 SU all-time in Primetime Televison games which includes Thursday night, Sunday Night and Monday Night football games. 2-4 on Thursdays, 3-2 on Sundays and 0-7 on Mondays. How about a more important stat in Kirk Cousins career? That one that says his record as a starting back versus teams with a losing record is 6-28? Excuse me? That's brutal. That includes a 1-3 record this year with their only win coming against the Eagles (who the Cowboys destroyed on a Sunday Night). The Vikings offense is putting up good numbers in their last three games but their last game was a loss to the Patrick Mahomes less Chiefs and the Lions and Redskins (both have losing records on the season) so don't put too much value into that. The 28 points per game and 6.2 yards per play won't be a thing versus this Cowboys defense that has allowed only 5.5 yards per play their last three games and they have allowed only 312 total yards of offense per game in those games on 17.3 points per game. Cousins is going to see some insane pressure tonight against a Cowboys defense that has 10 sacks in their last three games and who also have 3 interception and 4 fumble recoveries in those games while forcing a total of 6 fumbles. They are allowing opponents convert only 28.6% of the time on 3rd downs and those same opponents are scoring touchdowns only 30% of the time. That's close to #1 in the NFL over the last three weeks. The Vikings have been good in both areas but against bad teams. If the Vikings plan on letting RB Dalvin Cook run all night they'll have to do it against a Cowboys defense that has allowed only 90.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 3.9 yards per carry versus Saquon Barkely, LeVeon Bell and the Eagles running backs. Minnesota's offense has turned the ball over only 1 time their last three games but that will change tonight as the laws of football averages say the Vikings turn the ball over at least 2 times against this defense. The Cowboys defense is not dominant but they are solid and I thought they were outstanding on a Sunday Night against the Eagles. I see the same type of performance tonight.

I already talked about Kirk Cousins and how bad he has been 1) against teams with a winning record and 2) when playing on primetime television. What I did not mention was his record when playing Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott because they used to play each other twice a year when Cousins was with the Redskins. He is 0-4 lifetime versus Prescott in his career. Now speaking of Prescott how about his record when playing on television or in Primetime? As of right now Dak Prescott has 14 career wins on Primetime television which is the most of any quarterback in the NFL since he entered the league. Think about that for a second. One more thing to consider when it comes to Dak playing against top scoring defenses in the NFL. When he plays against a TOP 5 scoring defense in his career, Prescott is 6-1 with a QB Rating of 105.9 in those games. Minnesota has the #5 ranked scoring defense so far in 2019. Get my drift? The Cowboys come into this game on a 2 game win streak taking out the Giants last week in a blowout road win and then blowing out the Eagles on Sunday Night Football in my biggest play of the season three weeks ago. They outyarded those two teams by a combined 277 total yards. Now they get to face a Vikings defense that is coming off games versus Kansas City (no Mahomes), Washington and Detroit and a defense who allowed 6.6 yards per play in those games and 21.7 points per game. Forget the fact that all three of those teams ran all over the Vikings for 5.8 yards per carry (they allowed at least one big run in all of those games) but the Cowboys running game is rolling right now with Zeke and friends averaging 163.3 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air I don't think the Vikings stand a chance. Their last three opponents have completed 69.3% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Sure they have 11 sacks in those games but if they are relying on sacks to go for broke, they are in for a nasty surprise because Dak has been sacked only 4 times in his last three games. Dallas has one of the best 3rd down offenses in the NFL the last three games converting 52.4% of the time and they are scoring touchdowns 66.7% of the time in the Red Zone when playing at home this season. The Eagles were badly overmatched by this Cowboys offense and the Vikings will experience the same thing. They just haven't been good enough lately to contain this high powered offense averaging 31.8 points per game at home this season. Cowboys go off.

Right now I see a solid 50% split across the board for bettors in this game. It's shocking. I was on the Cowboys -3 in my PLAY OF THE YEAR against the Eagles a while back and it was pretty much the same scenario as this. I've already gone over how bad Kirk Cousins is against Dak Prescott and how bad he has been his entire career in games played on Thursday, Sunday or Monday Night and how bad he has been versus teams with a winning record (6-28 in his career). Then there is Dak who has been outstanding on primetime television (NFL leading 14 wins since he entered the league) and his 6-1 career record versus TOP 5 scoring defenses. That's all you need to know but I will add a bit more. The Vikings as a team are only 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record on the season. The Cowboys have not been much better (just being honest) when it comes to covering spreads but the Favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Home Team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I'm all over the Cowboys tonight!

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record.


Dallas 34, Minnesota 13





more to come...

 

[fadetheaction]

How could you not follow? Great job today.