MistaFlava's NFL Football Week 10 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (System Plays Inside)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2021 NFL Football Record: 35-31 ATS (+9.00 Units)

Not a bad week at all last week had I stayed away from games like the Bills and Saints and the ridiculous fact that both were favored by so much. My hot streak in Primetime games continues and it seems to be where I have the best feel for things even without posting my Sunday Night Football play last week. It's been a crazy season but I'm finally back in the green and looking to build on that.

As always I invite and embrace any type of comments including the good, the bad, the ugly or anything else and will never take it personally. Just out here trying to make money.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK and Happy Remembrance Day and Veterans Day to all those who served for our great Nations.

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Thursday, November 11



Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (10 Units)

Look I know the Miami Dolphins have been competitive at times this season and the Ravens tend to play down at the level of their opponent sometimes like we saw last week against the Minnesota Vikings but the Dolphins are just not a good spread team. They've had some terrible games this season but they ended their 7 game losing streak last week against the Houston Texans and covered the -4 point Favorite tag. That was the first time they cover the spread in a game since September 26 when they went to Las Vegas and lost and only the third time all year. QB Tua Tagovailoa is most likely OUT for tonight with some finger issue which means QB Jacoby Brissett is back in the sadle. So far this season Brissett has completed 64.4% of his passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt with 5 Touchdown Passes, 4 Interceptions and a QB Rating of only 79.0 in those games. Not exactly something to write home about. We all know you can't run against the Ravens it just doesn't work so this will all be on Brissett's arm and we'll see if the can get the job done. If you look at his career playing in Monday Night or Thursday Night football games, Brissett is 2-4 (although both wins have some on a Thursday Night) and in those games has only ever thrown 1 Touchdown Pass and has an average QB Rating below 75.0. Not good. The Baltimore Ravens come into this game off a crazy overtime win over the Minnesota Vikings where they failed to cover the spread but found a way to win the game in a character building win for this ball team. The Dolphins defense is horrendous and come in ranked as the #30 ranked defense against the pass and #17 ranked defense against the run while allowing 391.9 total yards per game (ranked #30 in the league) and 26.9 points per game (ranked #27 in the NFL). The Ravens offense is ranked TOP 10 in just about every category this season. They come into this game having covered the spread in 19 of their last 28 games versus AFC Conference opponents and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games played on Thursday Night Football. Miami is a decent home team at times but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as an Underdog and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on a Thursday Night. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Miami and an incredible 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings between the teams. I'm going with a comfortable win by Lamar and the Ravens even if the public is all over it too. The Underdogs went 10-3 ATS last week, not this week.

Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams.


Baltimore 37, Miami 6




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[hobbs4]

Good luck!

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.....here's to a profitable evening buddy......indy

 

[JohnnyMags]

I knew this looked to good ... but I got sucked in too
Get em this weekend

 

[MistaFlava]

***SUNDAY UPDATE***

Alright here is what's up with the Sunday games. Went back to the OLD SYSTEM because it's still better than 50/50 and instead of just picking and choosing whatever games to play I am going to lay 10 Units on every game today as well as the Monday Night Football Game. Not looking to go perfect but at least go 60% and anything better, which I expect it to be, will be gravy.

Plays will be posted with "Suggested Line" as always but I've made adjustments to round things out where if 3 of 4 lines lean one way we go that instead of the perfect 4/4. Worth a try here. Only bet money you can afford and let's make some Holiday Shopping cash today.

 

[MistaFlava]

As previously mentioned I will have Suggested Lines and predicted outcome for each game today and tomorrow. Consider this like an article where a beat writer gives all his predictions for games. Only difference is I am putting actual money on each.


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Sunday, November 14


New Orleans at Tennessee

Suggested Line 1: Tennessee -4.55
Suggested Line 2: Tennessee -5.01
Suggested Line 3: Tennessee -2.77
Suggested Line 4: Tennessee -3.33

PLAY: Tennessee Titans -3 (10 Units)

I'm going to keep this short for the games today but I have been saying it the last few days and unfortunately we didn't get a taste of it on Thursday Night Football but the FAVORITES are eventually going to fight back and I think it starts this week. The Titans will be withou WR Julio Jones and obviously RB Derrick Henry but it won't matter. The Saint QB situation is a mess right now and Titans D is too good. The Saints secondary has been awful for a while now. Saints come into this game 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record and not only are the Titans 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall but they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing an opposing team to throw for 250+ passing yards in their previous game. System likes Titans to win and cover regardless of injuries.

Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in their last five games.


Tennessee 24, New Orleans 13




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[MistaFlava]

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Cleveland at New England

Suggested Line 1: New England -9.05
Suggested Line 2: New England -5.59
Suggested Line 3: New England -5.98
Suggested Line 4: New England -8.82

PLAY: New England Patriots -2.5 (10 Units)

Give the New England Patriots the benefit of the doubt of being back and although Cleveland was a big system play last week as a Road Underdog because they've been great in that spot, I think the win over Cincinnati was an emotional win and I think it took quite a bit out of this team. They had just dealt with the OBJ drama coming to an end and they were playing their in-State rivals. Now they play the most underrated team in the AFC Conference who are on absolute fire on both sides of the ball. Yes Brown are 5-1 ATS in their last six Road Games as an Underdog but they have covered the spread in only 7 of their last 22 games versus AFC Conference opponents and only 8 of their last 30 games played in November. Even more important, the Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games coming off a win of 14+ points. New England has covered the spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings and are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in New England. Another Pats win here with the Browns having no NFL caliber RB's on their roster for this one.

Trend of the Game: New England is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings played in New England.


New England 26, Cleveland 6




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[MistaFlava]

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Detroit at Pittsburgh

Suggested Line 1: Pittsburgh -16.07
Suggested Line 2: Pittsburgh -13.32
Suggested Line 3: Pittsburgh -14.61
Suggested Line 4: Pittsburgh -16.56

PLAY: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (10 Units)

I warned you guys there would be some kind of push back from the Favorites in this week's games and as ugly as it was for the Steelers on Monday Night Football against the Bears they now get to relax a little bit and face one of the worst teams in the NFL the last decade or so let alone this season. Neither defense is any good and QB Ben Roethlisberger is OUT but in comes QB Mason Rudolph who's run this offense for years in practice and as a starter where is 5-4 lifetime, has completed 60.8% of his passes with 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 12 TD passes and 9 Interceptions and a QB Rating of 80.5. Just for reference the Lions D has only 7 takeaways all year (28th ranked in the NFL). The Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games played in November and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on real grass. The Steelers didn't cover on Monday Night Football but are 4-1 ATS in their last five November games and for the first time in eight home games as a Favorite they will cover the spread in his one.

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last five November games.


Pittsburgh 30, Detroit 21




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[HacheMan]

GL today Flav

 

[MistaFlava]

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Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Suggested Line 1: Jacksonville -3.37
Suggested Line 2: Jacksonville -1.77
Suggested Line 3: Jacksonville -1.01
Suggested Line 4: Jacksonville -1.55

PLAY: Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 (10 Units)

Pretty crazy stuff here because we saw the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Buffalo Bills at home last week which tells us two things. 1) This team is not tanking for a better draft pick or a new Head Coach next season and 2) This team learned a thing or two in their BYE Week and they are going to be competitive the rest of the way. Funny thing is the betting public doesn't believe them yet and thinks they'll get killed here. QB Trevor Lawrence is playing and he made some plays last week and so did the Jaguars defense. More plays than the Colts D made against a terrible Jets team that's for sure. The Jaguars also played well last November and are now 4-1 ATS in their last five November games. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six trips to Indianapolis, the Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings and Jacksonville is an incredible 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games played versus the Colts. Although improbable this could be their first win here since 2017. Crazier things are happening every week.

Trend of the Game: Jacksonville is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these teams.


Jacksonville 25, Indianapolis 24




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[MistaFlava]

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Atlanta at Dallas

Suggested Line 1: Dallas -3.12
Suggested Line 2: Dallas -3.75
Suggested Line 3: Dallas -4.01
Suggested Line 4: Dallas -1.88

PLAY: Atlanta Falcons +8 (10 Units)

So once again we are seeing the oddsmakers giving a team like Dallas the benefit of the doubt because they had been perfect on the spread and in the win column all season until the debacle at home versus Denver last week. Today we find out if that was just a one off or if indeed something is wrong in Dallas and I think something is wrong in Dallas. The Cowboys still have a ton of injuries on their roster and Atlanta comes in hot off a huge win over the New Orleans Saints that almost saw them completely blow it in the end. The Falcons are now 4-4 on the season and have belief that they can make a run at the Wild Card. Most people don't realize how good Atlanta has been against the pass this season. You also have to consider the Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Road Games and they love playing on Field Turf covering the spread in 5 of their last 7. Matt Ryan is 4-1 ATS in his last five meetings with Dallas and are you really going to trust a Dallas team that is 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming off a double digit loss at home or that is only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a spread loss? I'm not either. Falcons love playing in Domes and they'll be competitive here. Dallas secondary is so shaky and it's starting to show now that the offense has issues.

Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Road Games.


Atlanta 27, Dallas 24




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[MistaFlava]

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Buffalo at NY Jets

Suggested Line 1: Buffalo -19.52
Suggested Line 2: Buffalo -18.73
Suggested Line 3: Buffalo -20.22
Suggested Line 4: Buffalo -21.71

PLAY: Buffalo Bills -13 (10 Units)

The Buffalo Bills look like they have some major issues and some are even saying the Tennessee Titans broke them about a month when they played each other in Primetime but this team is way too good on both sides of the ball to keep playing this poorly. It's actually all on Quaterback Josh Allen and on Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll who need to get their shit together. Jets phenom QB Mike White gets another start after leaving the Thursday Night Football Game against the Colts very early on in the game. White was incredible his his debut with the Jets but there is no chance he is replicating that against the best secondary in the NFL even if they have a few guys on the injury report this week. The perfect remedy for the Bills is playing against another losing team where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games and if you think about it Buffalo is still an impressive 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games played overall. The Jets are still 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as an Underdog and they have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 21 games played versus AFC East opponents. No thanks. I think the Bills come out and win this one big and all is well again as the pressure starts to build in the AFC Conference.

Trend of the Game: Buffalo is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games dating back to last season.


Buffalo 38, NY Jets 3




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[MistaFlava]

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Tampa Bay at Washington

Suggested Line 1: Tampa Bay -14.29
Suggested Line 2: Tampa Bay -13.34
Suggested Line 3: Tampa Bay -14.54
Suggested Line 4: Tampa Bay -13.80

PLAY: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 (10 Units)

The revenge of the Favorites will be complete after only the early games as the betting world is now consumed with taking all the Underdogs as they are on their massive run in NFL Games but a lot of good teams are favored this week and they deserve it. Tampa Bay being one of them. This is not even close and the Buccaneers secondary is starting to play a lot better than they have played all season which is a problem for a Washington offense that in their last three games average only 5.6 yards per play and allow 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs are coming off that disappointing road loss in New Orleans a few weeks ago but they've had an entire BYE Week to get it together and play a Washington team that is 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Tampa Bay is an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off an ATS loss and you can tell Brady doesn't like playing poorly. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss. Washington on the other hand is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games coming off a spread loss and have failed to cover the spread in 20 of their last 27 games coming off a straight up loss. The Road Team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the Buccaneers should dominate start to finish although they could start a bit slow but they'll take over second half if that's the case.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off an ATS spread loss.


Tampa Bay 38, Washington 13




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[indiana]

Mr. Flava....BOL with all your action today buddy.......indy

 

[MistaFlava]

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Carolina at Arizona

Suggested Line 1: Arizona -5.44
Suggested Line 2: Arizona -5.35
Suggested Line 3: Arizona -5.66
Suggested Line 4: Arizona -4.71

PLAY: Carolina Panthers +9 (10 Units)

The Carolina Panthers actually played pretty damn well last week at home against the New England Patriots but that was on the defensive side of things. On the offensive side of things they were horrendous and have now resorted to benching QB Sam Darnold in place of QB PJ Walker who will be making his second career NFL start. There is hope there because Walker is 1-0 as a starter and the Panthers defense allowed 0 points in his first career start but as unlikely as it seems for that to happen again today, Walker just has to be good. This is a huge number for a Cardinals team that is badly beat up on both sides of the ball and that went from a 3 point dog to a 9 point favorite in the span of a week. The numbers are the same regardless of Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins statuses. The Panthers have the #2 ranked total yards defense, the #2 ranked Passing defense in the NFL and the #7 ranked points defense. Carolina is an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last eight Road Games as an Underdog and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Road Games overall. Also consider Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and Arizona re only 9-21 ATS in their last 30 Home Games as a Favorite and I think the Panthers come in here and shock the NFL world in this game. Sounds crazy but possible.

Trend of the Game: Carolina is 7-1 ATS in their last eight Road Games as an Underdog.


Carolina 17, Arizona 13




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[MistaFlava]

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Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers

Suggested Line 1: Minnesota -2.96
Suggested Line 2: Minnesota -1.04
Suggested Line 3: Minnesota -1.33
Suggested Line 4: Minnesota -3.01

PLAY: Minnesota Vikings +3 (10 Units)

The betting public got away with their bets on the Chargers last week in Philadelphia but if you watched that game it's hard to understand how they came out of there with a win and the Eagles defense couldn't get a stop. Now the betting public is doubling down again but this time against a Minnesota Vikings that knows how to get chippy and have played well in these situations before. The Vikings probably should have beat the Baltimore Ravens last week but their offense sputtered in overtime and they couldn't get the job done. Don't forget this Vikings also went to Cincinnati and lost by 3 in overtime. They also went to Arizona and got sniped as time expired in a 34-33 loss and then they went to Carolina and won the road. The Chargers won last week but they've still lost 2 of their last 3 and have 2 losses at home this season. Minnesota comes into this game 41-18 ATS in their last 59 games coming off a straight up loss. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an Underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last seven Road Games as an Underdog. The Chargers have been one of the best ATS teams this season and late last season but they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played in November and have covered the spread in only 18 of their last 57 Home Games dating all the way back to their San Diego days. That's crazy stuff. Not the place to back them. One more note the Vikings are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 41-18 ATS in their last 59 games coming off a straight up loss.


Minnesota 31, LA Chargers 17




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[MistaFlava]

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Seattle at Green Bay

Suggested Line 1: Seattle -0.62
Suggested Line 2: Seattle -3.44
Suggested Line 3: Seattle -0.03
Suggested Line 4: Seattle -0.29

PLAY: Seattle Seahawks +3 (10 Units)

SNOW GAME ALERT!!!!! This is a play not too many can resist. Putting the system aside and trying to justify this one by myself is what I'm going to do here because I agree with the system and even without it I would have been on Seattle. QB Russell Wilson is back and that is absolutely massive for the Seahawks who come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games overall so they obviously missed him quite a bit but they come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games which means they somewhat held the fort down while he was out. The last time there was controversy surrounding Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was in the off-season and we all saw how things went when the QB made his return in Week 1 and the entire team and offense looked unprepared. Obviously they've looked a lot better since but that was a direct result of Rodgers selfishness. This is the exact same. Rodgers caught Covid-19 after lying about being vaccinated (or at least wording it differently) and he has not practiced or been around the team the entire week and missed last week's loss at Kansas City. Seattle comes into this game 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Road Games as an Underdog and they are also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 Road Games overall. The Packers have covered the spread in 8 straight games now coming in but again this is the first game coming off yet another Aaron Rodgers off-field distraction and Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 250 total yards (Kansas City had 237) in their previous game. Russell Wilson has had so many issues at Lambeau but this is when he ends them all. Should be a fun one in the frozen tundra.

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Road Games as an Underdog.


Seattle 24, Green Bay 14




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[MistaFlava]

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Philadelphia at Denver

Suggested Line 1: Denver -4.27
Suggested Line 2: Denver -6.68
Suggested Line 3: Denver -7.05
Suggested Line 4: Denver -6.91

PLAY: Denver Broncos -1 (10 Units)

One of the big questions this week will be whether the Denver Broncos are the real deal or was that big blowout win in Denver last week just some kind of issue with the Cowboys? I'll be honest I think it was a bit of both but the fact that Denver who lost their emotional leader and legendary member of their defense Von Miller to a trade just days earlier and still played the way they did in Dallas is super impressive. It leads me to believe Miller left this team and defense in good hands. Philadelphia on the other are coming off another brutal home loss where they looked hapless until the final few minutes of the game. Maybe going on the road will do them some good but their defense is just not good enough to win away from home against decent teams. Their only two road wins this season came on the road versus Detroit, Atlanta and Carolina, all three NFC Conference opponents, and I refuse to back a team that is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Road Games dating back to last season. Denver comes into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win and with a 5-4 record they are still in contention in the AFC playoff race and AFC West Divisional race which is getting really close right now. I also love the fact that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season. I'm going Broncos to win again.

Trend of the Game: Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win.


Denver 27, Philadelphia 17




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[MistaFlava]

That's it for now I will be back later this afternoon/evening with a play on the Sunday Night Football Game. GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE TODAY and enjoy the games!

 

[BigLouReturns]

So far you're on every game in week 10. That's a lot...