MistaFlava's NFL Championship Sunday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)‏

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MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Playoffs: 6-2 ATS (+35.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 46-31-3 ATS (+328.00 Units)


Another great NFL Playoff Weekend for me. We are down to only three football games left until next September and it's time to make the best of them. I wish I could say I did as well in college football as I did in the NFL but that was not the case. Having said that, I expect some big profits in the next few months heading into March Madness and hope everyone has enjoyed reading my writeups for the NFL. I am heading into the CBB, NBA and MLB seasons with a full head of steam and things have really turned around for me the last few weeks. The NFL Playoffs have always been huge for me and I have always done well. I went 10-1 ATS in the 2005 NFL Playoffs and have never looked back since. Good Luck to all this weekend and let's win some money guys!

The goal for the playoffs is to hit 70% of my plays or hit the 50 Unit mark.


1 Unit = $100


Week 1:
2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
Week 13: 6-3 ATS (+28.00 Units)
Week 14: 3-2 ATS (+13.50 Units)
Week 15: 3-2-1 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Week 16: 5-4 ATS (+24.50 Units)
Week 17: ---No Plays---
Wildcard: 3-1 ATS (+17.50 Units)
Divisional: 3-1 ATS (+17.50 Units)
Championship: Pending


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!

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Sunday, January 18


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

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View attachment 6256 Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (50 Units) View attachment 6255

***PLAY OF THE CHAMPIONSHIPS***

The Philadelphia Eagles have made me some cash money this season and the fact that they are 12-6 ATS right now means that they have made more people money than not. So this is the big game. Can Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid make it back to the Super Bowl without a big name receiver like Terrell Owens (that Super Bowl loss was the last time this team even made the playoffs). Think of how much these guys have been through since the T.O. days and think of the pressure both McNabb and Reid have been under from the fans and the media. With the Philadelphia Phillies finally bringing a major sports championship back to the city of Philadelphia this past fall, the pressure has somewhat diminished but not really and this is the last chance if you ask me for both Reid and McNabb, who unless they win the Super Bowl this time around, will not both be back next season. Having said that the Eagles have looked like a team on a mission this post-season winning twice on the road as a Wildcard team with wins in Minnesota against the Vikings and in New York against the Giants. We all expect this to be some sort of a shootout and it wouldn't surprise me if the game was low scoring either but the Eagles have both the offense and the defense for both a shootout or for a low scoring affaire. I have been saying it for quite some time now that despite playing well on the road this season, if you are going to go against the Eagles at all, doing it when they are on the road is best because they went 6-2 ATS at home this season and knocked the crap out of most opponents they faced. No matter how well they have played away from home as of late, you cannot forget their road losses in Chicago (#16 defense in the NFL), Dallas (#20 defense in the NFL), the tie in Cincinnati (#19 defense in the NFL) and the blowout loss in Baltimore (#3 defense in the NFL). None of those teams apart from the Ravens are that great defensively so it's not a concern to me that Arizona ranked #28 in defense this past season because right now they are #4 in the playoffs. Philadelphia comes into this game playing some of their best football in ages but hold on a second here. If you are going to beat Arizona and their offense you better score some points. Well here is the problem for the Eagles. They come into this averaging only 21.5 points per game away from home this season and in those games they managed to average only 330.8 total yards of offense per game and only 5.1 yards per play in those games. That would normally be enough to get around this Arizona defense because they have sucked all season but the last three games have been the best ever for this Cards defense as they have allowed only 19.3 points per game in those games and have allowed only 283.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? IS THIS THE CARDS DEFENSE THAT RANKED #28 THIS PAST SEASON? On the ground, RB Brian Westbrook has not done the job needed to win a Super Bowl. The Eagles, despite the strong passing game, have averaged only 84.2 rushing yards per away game this season and have done that on only 3.5 yards per carry in those games. The one thing Arizona has been able to do all season at home is stop the run and they have really mastered it in their last three games as they have allowed only 74.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they have allowed only 3.3 yards per carry in those games. Without a running threat from the Eagles, Arizona is going to concentrate on the passing attack of McNabb. In the air, McNabb has completed only 58.4% of his passes on the road this season and he has managed to get that done on 6.1 yards per pass attempt which is not all that great. He does not have a deep threat WR despite the emergence of Desean Jackson (who has mostly played well at home this season). Well the Cardinals defense that struggled against the pass all season has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 57.3% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt and the reason they have been winning games is because the secondary has tightened things up big time and they have not allowed any huge pass completions in the post-season. McNabb has pretty good pass protection and that has been the case all season as he has been sacked only 18 times in 10 road games on the year but this is more about the Arizona pass rush who are a bit different looking than the Giants pass rush and who have 6 sacks in their last three games. I just wanted to let you know that if you are betting on Donovan McNabb in this game, YOU ARE BETTING ON A QB WITH A QB RATING OF ONLY 70.9 ON THE ROAD THIS SEASON. Even scarier than that is the fact that the last three QB's Arizona's defense faced have a combined QB Rating of 54.3 in those games and that makes the Cardinals one hell of a hot defense to go up against right now. What I don't like about McNabb here is that he threw most of his INT's away from home this season and if the Cardinals can get some pressure up front, they are going to force McNabb into some big time mistakes. This secondary is playing lights out right now as they are coming off a 5 interception performance against Carolina and now have 9 interceptions in their last three games. WOW! The Eagles have been good when it comes to holding onto the ball this season and that's important but despite losing only 6 fumbles in 10 away game this season, they have to go up against an Arizona defense that is all of a sudden aggressive when they tackle as they have forced 5 fumbles in their last three games and have managed to recover 3 of those fumbles which means they have a chance to make some big plays in this game. Philadelphia is converting only 36.1% of their third down chances away from home this season and the Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed their last three opponents to convert only 31.4% of their down chances in those games. What big concern and it has almost cost them in their two playoff games is the fact that Philadelphia is scoring touchdowns only 33.3% of the time once inside the RedZone on the road this season. Arizona has allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns 70.0% of the time from inside the RedZone but it won't matter if the Eagles can't even get down there and it won't matter if Arizona already has the lead. When you play against the Eagles you always have to watch out for their punt and kickoff return units because they do have some big returns this season. We have all heard about Arizona and how they are a huge third quarter offensive team as of late but most of that is because of their defense (nobody ever talks about them) as the Cardinals have allowed a grand total of 0 points in their last three third quarters (three games) and that has been huge for this team if they have the lead at halftime or if they are within stricking distance of their opponent. I think the Cardinals lacked confidence on defense all season and now that they have it, watch out for this team guys, they are out for blood and they are gonna get it. DEEEEEEEFENSE!

The Arizona Cardinals were dead in the water a few weeks and a few months back and I can guarantee right now that not a single person picked them to make it this far in the 2009 NFL Playoffs. I am talking about people joining pools once the playoff teams had been decided. I would be shocked if more than 1 or 2 serious people had Arizona playing for the Super Bowl let alone winning the Super Bowl in the end. Well this team is now one game away from achieving that goal and after hosting their first ever home playoff game, the Cardinals get to host another home game and this time it's for a trip to the biggest dances of all. So I made the mistake of going against Arizona in the Wildcard round when I took Atlanta but I learned from that mistake and understood that there was something special about this team when they went to Carolina (who had not lost at home all season) and beat the Panthers. Safe enough to say I was on the Cardinals in that game and I will not hesitate to bet them again, this time as a home underdog with one of the most ridiculous lines I have seen in a very long time. What everyone wants to know right now is if WR Anquan Boldin is good to go on Sunday and the answer is...maybe, maybe not. Regardless, the Cardinals have done well with and without Boldin and despite how good he is, they have other guys who can make big plays and this team has really come together the last few weeks and made things happen. Why in the world would you go against these guys at home? Kurt Warner, of all QB's, knows a thing or two about playing in and winning playoff games so you have your QB. Then you have a RB who deserves and has always wanted a Super Bowl ring and who all of a sudden is a big time playmaker after barely playing all season, then you have a very good an underrated WR corps combined with a defense that is playing their best football of the season. At home this season, Arizona went 6-3 ATS and they had some pretty big wins going 7-2 SU. The only teams to come to Phoenix and win games were the Giants and the Vikings and despite both teams losing to Minnesota this post-season, I think home wins over Miami, Dallas, Buffalo, San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle and Atlanta (in the playoffs) is good enough to convince me this team knows a thing or two about playing at home and winning games. This stadium is just rocking and the Cardinals are not losing a playoff game in this place, trust me on that. Arizona comes into this game averaging a whopping 32.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 391.3 total yards of offense per game and averaging 6.1 yards per play in those games...now that is some offense (a lot of it because of their defense).This high powered offense is going to have a chance in this game because even though the Eagles defense has been very good this season, they have allowed 19.6 points per game on the road this season and in those games have allowed 277.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play. That's actually pretty damn good but it's not as good as they have been at home and I have always said that once this team runs into an offense that is clicking on all cylinders, they are going to be in trouble. The Eagles has to be tired right now and I don't think they have what it takes to shut down yet another high scoring offense playing at home (three times is almost impossible in one season and it's not happening two years in a row like the Giants last season). On the ground, RB Edgerrin James is back and he wants a Super Bowl ring more than anything right now which is probably why the team has rushed for 114.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they have averaged 3.8 yards per carry in those games. Now that the Cardinals have a decent threat on the ground to compliment their passing attack, I don't think there is any stopping these guys and this is now the most dangerous team left in the playoffs only because we have been waiting for them to play like this for quite some time now and just now have they realized what they can do with the talent they have on their sidelines. One of the reasons both the Eagles and Cardinals have been succesful in the playoffs is because they have taken early leads and never looked back scoring a bunch of points in the first half. Philadelphia has scored 17.6 points per first half in their last three games which is usually good enough to beat anyone in this league as long as you have half a defense to go along with it but the Arizona Cardinals have one upped them and have scored 18.3 points per first half in their last three games and like I said before, I think if Arizona can be close at the half and if they can have some kind of lead, they are going to win this game outright. Along with allowing 0 points in their last three third quarters, the Cardinals have scored 10.3 points of their own and again that has kept them in games. By now hopefully you understand the momentum this team carries because they are on fire, they have a few guys on this team who know a thing or two about winning and playing in Super Bowls and things are finally coming together for them. That's the beauty of this league and the CARDINALS ARE GOING TO THE SUPER BOWL!

Who the hell ever expected these two teams to be here playing for the NFC Championship Game a few months back. What happened to teams like the Bears, the Giants, the Vikings, the Cowboys and the list goes on of teams that were predicted to be in this game ahead of both Philadelphia and Arizona but what can you do? This is why the NFL is the best professional sports league in the world because things are so unpredictable year in and year out and anything can happen. These two teams already met once this season and it wasn't pretty. Arizona got blown out of the water in that game and believe me when I say that the team you saw back on November 27 in that 48-20 loss to the Eagles, is not the same team you saw walk into Carolina last week and beat the Panthers by 20 points. You have two very experienced QB's who have both been in some huge games and I actually think home field advantage is going to be huge in this game because of the wear and tear Wildcard teams usually have to endure. Philadelphia has always been one of the best road teams to bet on ATS wise and they are great against good home opponents and even better in playoff road games. So based on ATS stats only, they are the play here. However, Arizona is turning into a little cash money machine themselves now, going 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in the month of January and they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 road games. The Eagles have pretty much dominated these guys the last little while but things are changing. As much as I want to see McNabb succeed sometimes, the Cardinals are the hotter team right now and home field advantage is going to make all the difference in the world here. SEE YOU NEXT SUNDAY KURT, YOU EARNED IT!

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.


Arizona 27, Philadelphia 24





:toast:





I will post the Baltimore-Pittsburgh writeup a little bit later...good luck to all on this game.
 
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With you on Ari, ML here though and I think the game will go under the total of 47. Arizonas D is peeking and we all know Philly can play some darn good defense, they won´t be able to stop Warner and his offense though! Watch out for Larry Fitz, probably the best wide reciever in the NFL!

GL Mista!
 

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Actually four games left; We have the pro-bowl- that "game" is always a lot of fun trying to handicap as long as it is played in Honolulu.
 

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The Eagles were in the playoffs 2 years ago, and this was 2 years after the SB loss.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead width="26%">Date</TD><TD class=datahead width="24%">Vs</TD><TD class=datahead width="13%">Score</TD><TD class=datahead width="13%">Week</TD><TD class=datahead width="14%">PHI Line</TD><TD class=datahead width="10%">O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Saturday 01/13/07</TD><TD class=datacell>@ New Orleans </TD><TD class=datacell>L 24-27 </TD><TD class=datacell>Divisional</TD><TD class=datacell>W 5.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 48.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 01/07/07</TD><TD class=datacell>N.Y. Giants </TD><TD class=datacell>W 23-20 </TD><TD class=datacell>Wildcard</TD><TD class=datacell>L -6.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 45.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Just saw your post and wanted to update it.
Keep up your good work!
 
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Thanks for the update, I pretty much meant they have not been back to the Super Bowl. Thanks man.
 
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Thanks for the write mistaflava - you get a lot of hate for some reason, but you obviously put in a LOT of time. It is very much appreciated from this end.
 

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Alright so with the Arizona Cardinals hopefully having already covered the spread, won the game and moved onto the Super Bowl by now, this is the big game this weekend, the one everyone has talked about the most and the one people are probably really anxious to watch and bet on...



Sunday, January 18


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

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View attachment 6258 Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (100 Units) View attachment 6259

***NFL PLAYOFFS PLAY OF THE YEAR***

The Baltimore Ravens made me more money this season than any other team in the NFL which is why you would think it's hard for me to go against them in this game...but let me tell you right now that my decision was very easy and I am going to bet some large money right here, right now. There comes a time to fade all teams, the ones you never have to fade are the ones who win the Super Bowl or win the BCS Championship Game or any other major championship for that matter. So all of you (61% of the public who is on Baltimore in this game) on the Ravens, can we please start discussing this a little bit. I need to know why the Ravens? You can talk about their defense all day and night because yes they are the most resilient defense around and yes Suggs is playing and yes they are the reason that this team beat both Tennessee and Miami the last two weeks to make it here...HOLD UP A SECOND...are they really the reason? I don't think so. It's more like the Baltimore offense that has moved the chains and made some big plays and kept their defense fresh...that's the reason this team has been winning games. Well the Steelers have the #1 defense in the NFL this season so when the Ravens offense is not clicking and when they cannot get first downs (something we have not seen or experienced the last two weeks), there is no doubt in my mind that the defense will struggle because of this and we saw it both times these teams faced each other this season. Baltimore managed only 29 points in those two games and again I don't see their offense being able to do anything. QB Joe Flacco has been outstanding and we all appreciate the big time money he has made us this season but the bottom line is HE IS A ROOKIE and despite not making rookie mistakes against the Titans or the Dolphins, those rookie mistakes are imminent and I think we are about to see them right here, right now in this game. When I talk about the Ravens and how much money they made me this season, I talk about a team that is now 14-4 ATS this season and that is an even more impressive 8-2 ATS away from home. That makes them an even more attractive wager in this game but why would Vegas be dumb enough to post a line so high against a team that has done so well ATS wise, a team that has been great to the public and a team that looks to for revenge in their third meeting of the season? ITS ALL A TRAP BOYS AND GIRLS and this is your last chance to backout because I am not going to try to convince you anymore...year right! Did you know that there is a possibility that Jim Leonhard, Terrell Suggs and Samari Rolle all miss this game for Baltimore today? Baltimore comes into this game averaging only 22.3 points per game in their last three games so despite moving the chains and keeping their defense fresh, the Ravens have not really opened any eyes and they have not been that good. In those games they have managed only 309.3 total yards of offense per game and they have done that on 5.6 yards per play in those games which is good but not that good. Like we saw twice already this season, that is just not going to work against this Pittsburgh defense that was #1 in the NFL this season and that allowed only 14.5 points per game on the year. The Steelers allowed only 240.4 total yards of offense per game in those games and they allowed their opponents to average only 4.2 yards per play. That is one of the best defenses I can remember in a long time in terms of NFL defenses and there is no reason for them not to reach the Super Bowl if they play the same way today. On the ground, the Ravens have really lost touch with their running game as they average only 109.3 rushing yards per game in those games and they have managed to do that on only 3.4 yards per carry. Sorry to tell you guys this but the honus is 100% on Flacco in this game because there is no way the Ravens can get anything done on the ground against a Steelers team that has allowed only 76.4 rushing yards per game this season and that have allowed only 3.2 yards per carry in those games. When the Ravens go down early and when the running game doesn't work, they will probably throw the ball on most downs but who the hell really wants to do that against this Steelers defense. In his last three games, Flacco has completed only 54.3% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt in those games and I don't know about you but those numbers are not all that impressive. Making things even worse is the fact that Pittsburgh's opponents this season have managed to complete only 56.7% of their passes but those passes have all been for minimal yardage gains and those same opponents have averaged only 4.5 yards per pass attempt in those games. You can forget about it if Baltimore goes down by a lot early because they just won't be able to complete deep passes or move the ball fast enough through the air to make it back into this game and score the points needed to even things up. Flacco does have a QB Rating of 87.8 in his last three games but welcome to Pittsburgh where the Steelers have held opposing QB's to a QB Rating of only 63.2 this season and if anyone knows this well it's Joe Flacco who had to face them twice already. He has been sacked only 3 times in his last three games but here comes Blitzburgh with their 53 sacks in only 17 games this season and as soon as Flacco feels pressure, the rookie mistakes and turnovers won't be too far behind. That kind of pressure by the Steelers has given them 21 interceptions on the season and do you really think Flacco is about to go four straight weeks without throwing an interception? Give me a break, he has not been pressured the way he is about to be pressured here today so expect 2-3 picks in this game alone by the rookie. Are you Ravens backers not concerned at all that your team is taking a whopping 7.3 penalties per game in their last three games which has cost them 51.3 penalty yards per game in those games? I would be. I am also concerned for you guys knowing that Flacco will be under pressure all day and that the Ravens have converted only 35.9% of the time the last three games on third downs and that Pittsburgh opponents have converted on third downs only 31.9% of the time this season so I don't see them going anywhere in this one. I think it's also very important to not that the Ravens are scoring touchdowns only 50.0% of the time the last three games once they enter the RedZone and if they can't score touchdowns (problem they had in both meetings this season), they won't be doing shit otherwise against a defense that has allowed teams to score touchdowns only 34.9% of the time this season once they enter the RedZone. DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT GUYS! Baltimore has shocked everyone and come out of the gates scoring a ton of points their last three games as they average 14.3 points per first half in those games but even if they managed to score some points here, the fact that they average only 7.6 points per second half in those same games is going to be a problem because should the Ravens not score their usual 10+ points per first half, no way are they going to turn things up for a third week on the road in the second half. This is just a very bad spot for Baltimore and had they been playing against a team that has a mediocre defense, a team where their offense could move the chains and give this defense a rest, I would probably be backing them at this price. But as they are facing the #1 defense in the NFL, I have to go against them and I just wanted to thank the Ravens for the cash they made me this season...keep the trend going and make me some cash today too by getting blown out. K THANS BYE!!!

The Pittsburgh Steelers can smell the Super Bowl right now. They can also smell the prospect of an all Pennsylvania battle in the big dance a few weeks from now but that is probably not on their minds...well not as much as beating the much hated Ravens for a third time this season. That's right. The Steelers walked into Baltimore in September and managed to hold the Ravens to only 9 points in their own house before coming back home and beating this same Ravens team in overtime to sweep the regular season series. So every expert in the world is going to tell you how tough it really is to beat the same team three times in one season and we have seen good example of that in the past. However, when you have the #1 defense in the NFL you can do anything, when you have a QB that has been here, done that before at a very young age...you can do anything. When the only two games you lose at home all season were against the NFL MVP Peyton Manning and against his brother Eli....you can do anything. So can we please stop all this talk about not being able to beat the same team three times in one season because that's just useless. I will be the first to admit and the first to come out and say that I HATE PITTSBURGH AND I REALLY DON'T WANT TO SEE THEM WIN THE SUPER BOWL AGAIN! They have cost me more money than any other team this season with some of their bullshit performances at home against garbage teams but please let me explain. It sort of makes sense to me now a bit more. Pittsburgh is the kind of team that plays down or up to their competitions level. All those games they cost me money on the spread at home this season were games against teams who did not make the playoffs, teams that sucked, teams that did not warranty any sort of motivation from the Pittsburgh team captains. So in other words this team went through the motions in those games and you can call it smart now because they came out of the regular season unscathed in terms of big time injuries and that was maybe one of the smartest ghost moves I have ever seen if that was the case. You also have to know that this team plays a lot better against good opponents and despite their home losses to the Colts and Giants, that's only because they were victims of one family and the last time I checked Joe Flacco had a different daddy and he wasn't Archie Manning. By no means did the Steelers make anyone a lot of money this season but these next two games are the only games that really matter and the fact that they beat San Diego and were the only home team to win last week and cover the spread tells me that there is something special about Mike Tomlin and his boys and that means they will probably win and cover this game. Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging 26.7 points per game in their last three games and I can tell you now that this is the best this offense has played all season and there is not better time for these guys to start clicking than right now. They are averaging 361.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and they are also averaging a very nice 5.6 yards per play in those games. Everyone is healthy, everything looks good and the Steelers probably have the best two-sided team left in the NFL Playoffs right now. What people are overlooking with this Ravens defense, and no I am not going to talk about how they will be on the field too much because their offense will suck, is that their worst football has been played on the road this season and for those of you who don't remember they got clobbered a few times by good teams when playing on the road. Baltimore has allowed 18.3 points per game away from home this season and in those games they have allowed opponents to average 306.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play. Yes that looks very good but hold on a second here...does this not go back to my point that if the offense cannot move the chains, the defense will suffer and allow a lot more points than they usual would? It sure does. On the ground, RB Willie Parker is one bad motherfucker and for anyone who saw him against the Chargers last week, you will know that this guy is all business, he loves playing and running in the snow and he is one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL (I know I said he sucks last week but whatever). The Steelers have run for 137.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 4.1 yards per carry in those games. Despite being one of the best teams against the run in the NFL this season, Baltimore has allowed their road opponents to rush for 3.7 yards per carry this season and in those games they have allowed 87.9 rushing yards per game. I love the combo of Mewelde Moore and Willie Parker because they both bring different running styles to the table and Baltimore has yet to show they can handle that in a game like this. Even if Parker doesn't do shit in the first half of this game, I think it's safe to say he is going to go on a tear in the second half and all Big Ben really has to do in this game is play his game. Roethlisberge has completed 63.8% of his passes the last three games and he has managed to get that done on 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers always present a deep threat with some of the guys on this team and today should be no different against a Ravens defense that has allowed their opponent road QB's to complete 58.1% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt which is good enough for me to believe that Big Ben is going to have a few chances to go deep and hit some open WR's on deep routes. It's not easy to catch Ed Reed and company sleeping but Samari Rolle is playing hurt, Christ McCallister is nowhere to be seen (he was a hero a few years back) and Big Ben knows everything there is to know about this Ravens defense because nobody has played against them more times than him. I do worry that he has been sacked 6 times in his last three games and I do have to let you know that Baltimore has 20 sacks in 10 road games this season but Big Ben has experienced, he knows he can't hold onto the ball in a game like this and play action is going to be huge here with Willie Parker running at 100% for one of the first times this season. Ben has thrown his usual 3 interceptions in his last three games and even when he makes mistakes like this I don't really worry because taking risks is part of his game and he has a QB Rating of 82.4 in those games...a rating I can only see get better as we progress through these playoffs and as he gets more comfortable in the playoff groove. Don't forget Ben has only played once this post-season unlike all the other QB's left in the playoffs right now so he is fresh and he is a bit rusty but not this game. What really has me convinced that the Steelers can win this game has been their ability to drain the clock, keep opposing offenses off the field for long periods of time and their sheer ability to convert third down chances as they have converted 48.7% of the time on third down in their last three games and if they can continue that rate into this game today, I don't think this game will even be close at all. Baltimore's opponents on the road this season haev converted a decent 34.4% of their third down chances and with all the wear and tear of playing all these weeks of football in a row without a break are just not going to work. The only way it ever works and the Giants proved it last season, is if you have an offense that can score 30+ points per game and help the defense out...well the Ravens defintiely don't have that kind of defense. I am also a huge fan of the fact that Pittsburgh has scored touchdowns in 60.0% of their trips to the RedZone the last three games and although there is a lot of hate for Mike Tomlin these last few days, I think he has done a super job with some of the play calling and with the home crowd behind these guys once again in this game, he will not shy away from calling all kinds of crazy plays to avoid having to kick field goals against a very good RedZone defense like Baltimore's. The problem for Tennessee and Miami was not getting down to the RedZone but it was scoring touchdowns in there and that is not a problem I see Pittsburgh having in this game. They are just too good and Big Ben has everything it takes to win this big game. The Steelers have settled for only 2 field goal attempts in their last three games. WOW! Believe it or not, the Ravens have not allowed a single point scored against them in their last three second quarters and their last three third quarters so I am very pleased to let you know that Pittsburgh averages 11.6 points per first half in their last three games and I would also like to let you know that on the road is where the Ravens have allowed first half points this season allowing 9.2 points per first half away from home. I will take Willie Parker, Mike Tomlin and Big Ben Roethlisberger with a little bit of Troy Paomalu anydays over Flacco, Ray Lewis and Willis McGahee...cmon guys...PITTSBURGH WINS THIS GAME WITHOUT A FREAKING SWEAT!

Do you really think the big boys in Vegas are a bunch of clowns or what? Why in the fucking world would they give you think kind of line on Baltimore, the same Baltimore team that went into both Miami and Tennessee the last two weeks and won road playoff games as underdogs? THAT MAKES NO SENSE WHATSOEVER and the public sheep are all lined up to be tossed right off that Ravens cliff. Guys use your heads and smarten up right now before it's too late. VEGAS WANTS YOU ON BALTIMORE but like I mentioned before, the only reason this defense has been playing so swell and stopping opponents is because their offense has been able to move the chains and the defense has been able to rest between possessions. Well not this time. PITTSBURGH HAS THE #1 DEFENSE IN THE NFL THIS SEASON AND IF BALTIMORE'S OFFENSE CAN'T MOVE THE CHAINS, THEIR DEFENSE IS GOING TO SUCK JUST AS MUCH...TRUST ME ON THAT! Pittsburgh, had it not been for that third quarter dominance last week against San Diego was struggling in that game and they looked like shit most of the time which is why this line just doesn't make sense at all and all us Pittsburgh backers are about to laugh straight to the bank with this. Baltimore has every ATS stat in the world on their side in this game and yes they are the team that went 14-4 ATS this season so why wouldn't they but I am not falling into that trap guys, I refuse to. I refuse to do so because as well as they have played, they have not been a good road underdog team when dogs of a lot of points. Baltimore is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games where they are an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and that blows balls. Pittsburgh, despite all their problems covering spreads this past season have covered 6 of their last 7 games now, they are a whopping 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games overall and THE STEELERS HAVE COVERED THE SPREAD IN 23 OF THEIR LAST 31 HOME GAMES AS A FAVORITE OF 3.5 TO 10 POINTS. History has it that they will not cover this game because of how poorly they have done in recent AFC Championship Games but they have all the tools in the world this season to win this game and win it big and off to the Super Bowl they go...BIG BEN IS GOING TO IMPRESS IN THIS ONE.

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games.


Pittsburgh 31, Baltimore 6





:toast:
 
Last edited:

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That's right...1 PLAY OF THE CHAMPIONSHIPS, 1 PLAY OF THE PLAYOFFS...all in one weekend.

This will make or break my gambling season, got a lot on the line today, wish me luck as I wish you all luck. Love the Steelers more than any other play this entire season.
 

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As much as I want to see McNabb succeed sometimes, the Cardinals are the hotter team right now and home field advantage is going to make all the difference in the world here. SEE YOU NEXT SUNDAY KURT, YOU EARNED IT!

In case you missed it the homefield advantage in this round has all but disappeared. Between 1980 and 1996 the homefield advantage was huge with teams going 26-8 SU but since 1997 the home teams have gone 11-11 SU.

Big Lou
 

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the Cardinals are the hotter team right now

how do you figure that ?

last 2 months :

Cards 4-4 / Eagles 6-2

:think2:
 

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I'm very interesting to read your writting, your pick and your style of rating. You must spend lots of time for it, Thanks for your pick Mr Flava.
 

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the Cardinals are the hotter team right now

how do you figure that ?

last 2 months :

Cards 4-4 / Eagles 6-2

:think2:



Forget the regular season for a second here...checkout Arizona at home this season and checkout what they have done the two playoff games they have played...very hot team. Nobody else won in Carolina this season, let alone by 20 points. Kurt Warner has Super Bowl experience, Donovan McNabb has choke experience. Nuff said. GL
 

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i been playing that choke card all postseason and look where thats got me

:ohno:
 

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Forget the regular season for a second here...checkout Arizona at home this season and checkout what they have done the two playoff games they have played...very hot team. Nobody else won in Carolina this season, let alone by 20 points. Kurt Warner has Super Bowl experience, Donovan McNabb has choke experience. Nuff said. GL

Two teams that beat the Cardinals at home were the Giants and Vikings. Eagles beat them both on the road to get here. Don't fall for the Cardinals here. Everybody is on their bandwagon after most people had them 1 and done. There defense is still weak and they have won because of turnovers something the Eagles don't do.

Warner will be on his back all day and Eagles win by at least a TD.
 

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Forget the regular season for a second here...checkout Arizona at home this season and checkout what they have done the two playoff games they have played...very hot team. Nobody else won in Carolina this season, let alone by 20 points. Kurt Warner has Super Bowl experience, Donovan McNabb has choke experience. Nuff said. GL


Ok ... let's look head to head

<TABLE class=bgBdr cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bgHdr1 align=middle><TD class=bgHdr1Away width="25%">Eagles</TD><TD width="50%">Average Team Rankings</TD><TD class=bgHdr1Home width="25%">Cardinals</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
13.3
</TD><TD width="50%">Total Offense</TD><TD width="25%">
check.gif
12.9
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
check.gif
9.1
</TD><TD width="50%">Total Defense</TD><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
20.5
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
11.0
</TD><TD width="50%">Passing Offense</TD><TD width="25%">
check.gif
6.1
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
check.gif
6.3
</TD><TD width="50%">Passing Defense</TD><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
21.5
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
check.gif
17.8
</TD><TD width="50%">Rushing Offense</TD><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
25.2
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
check.gif
7.2
</TD><TD width="50%">Rushing Defense</TD><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
15.5
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
9.7
</TD><TD width="50%">Receiving Offense</TD><TD width="25%">
check.gif
9.0
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
check.gif
9.5
</TD><TD width="50%">Receiving Defense</TD><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
21.8
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
check.gif
21.5
</TD><TD width="50%">Punting</TD><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
29.2
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
check.gif
13.5
</TD><TD width="50%">Return</TD><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif
14.7
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD width="25%">
check.gif
10.3
</TD><TD width="50%">Kicking</TD><TD width="25%">
spacer.gif


24.5
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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Forget the regular season for a second here...checkout Arizona at home this season and checkout what they have done the two playoff games they have played...very hot team. Nobody else won in Carolina this season, let alone by 20 points. Kurt Warner has Super Bowl experience, Donovan McNabb has choke experience. Nuff said. GL

As far as Carolina goes ...
it was a fluke-day for the Panthers ...these stats haven't happend all year to them ..... agree ?

<TABLE class=bgBdr cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bgHdr1Home><TD>Passing</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=bgBdr cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bgHdr3 align=middle><TD align=left>Name</TD><TD>CP/AT</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>INT</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=middle><TD align=left>J. Delhomme</TD><TD>17/34</TD><TD>205</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

--------------------------------------------------------------

Fitzgerald, Cards stun Panthers</ID>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=150 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
9062364_36_1.jpg
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=caption></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Two weeks ago, the Cardinals were being referred to as one of the worst teams ever to reach the NFL playoffs. On Saturday, they moved within one victory of their first appearance in the Super Bowl.

Entering as a 10-point underdog and ridiculed for their 0-5 record in the Eastern time zone this season, Arizona (11-7) raced to a 27-7 halftime lead and cruised past the mistake-prone Panthers (12-5), who were the league's only unbeaten team at home in the regular season.
The Cardinals got a helping hand from Panthers QB Jake Delhomme, who threw five interceptions and lost a fumble.


hell ...the Detroit Lions could've bea ....
na ,,the Lions still would've lost.
 

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