MistaFlava's NBA Week 4 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Mini-Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009-2010 NBA Record: 8-12-1 ATS (-56.50 Units)

Alright for the first time in about five seasons I am going to try and handicap the NBA for a full season and not just at the end of the football season. I have done well in the past, some remember me from my service year where I went on a mad run in college hoops and NBA and I would like to think I know what I am doing here.


2009-2010 Season Recap

Week 1: 3-4-1 ATS (-3.00 Units)
Week 2: No Plays
Week 3: 5-8 ATS (-53.50 Units)


Most of you know my capping style, I provide reasons why I like a wager and the first couple of weeks are going to be all about getting a good feel.


1 Unit = $100


Some of you don't like me, some don't like my style and some don't like my money management and that's fine because feedback (negative and positive) keeps me motivated and I continue posting regardless of how I do.

The key for me this season is going to be to keep a good balance between all the sports I handicap and I will do that by keeping things as simple as possible and posting only mini-writeups for some sports when I don't have time to get all extensive.

LETS MAKE SOME CASH!

---------------------------------------------



Monday, November 16


Atlanta Hawks -3.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***

There is no hotter team in the NBA right now than the Atlanta Hawks but let me be honest with you right now, the Blazers are one of the best all-around teams in the NBA and this is going to be a great game. Having said that, Atlanta is a some roll right now and I was on them late last week when they beat the Boston Celtics straight up as a 9 point underdog in that game. They followed that up with a very impressive 23 point home win over the New Orleans Hornets as a -12.5 point favorite. Atlanta is 8-2 SU on the season and their only two losses have come against Charlotte on the road and the Lakers on the road but they are 9-1 ATS in all their games this season with a perfect 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS mark at home. Portland has also been very good as they have now won six straight games and have moved into the rankings of being a TOP 5 NBA team as of right now. Having said that their quality of opponents is the only factor keeping them from being the best team in the NBA as they are finishing off a road trip here tonight and their last four wins have all been on the road against mediocre team like Memphis, Minnesota, New Orleans and Charlotte. This is not the first meeting between these teams as Atlanta went to Portland earlier this year and won 97-91 but right now I have to back the team shooting the ball better and that is Atlanta. I have nothing bad to say about the Blazers because they have been good to me in the past on the spread but Atlanta is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus a team that has a winning record on the season and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games as a favorite of 0.5 to 4.5 and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a win of 10 points or more the game before. Atlanta is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus Western Conference teams. They are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite and 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 home games overall. Under any other normal circumstance I would probably be on Portland here but right now no team is playing better than Atlanta and this is definitely a statement game for this team tonight.

Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus the NBA Northwest Division.


Atlanta 115, Portland 105





Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (10 Units)

Everyone is piling onto the Dallas Mavericks for this game because the line looks easy but something tells me this is a trap and I actually liked Milwaukee a lot when I first saw this game on the board having no idea the line would be this low. The Mavs are going to be without C Erik Dampier who is out for the game and who is going to leave a big hole to fill as he averages 7.6 points per game this season, 9.7 rebounds per game and he normally plays anywhere between 20-35 minutes per game this season. Michael Redd is still out for the Bucks in this game, although there was talk he might be back in time for this game but it doesn't look too good. So why the Bucks you ask? Well they are an impressive 5-2 SU on the season so far but my play is more based on the emergence of PG Brandon Jennings who is coming off one of the most impressive performances by a rookie in a very long time with his 55 point tally in their home win over Golden State on Saturday. WOW! Dallas is playing well right now and they are coming off road wins over Detroit and Minnesota but they have not won a game in Milwaukee since 2007 and the guys in Vegas obviously know something is going on here. Their last trip here was a 133-99 loss to the Bucks in January of this year and their previous trip was a 97-95 late in 2007. Dallas has always been a good fade against opponents from this Division and I don't know if it has to do with traveling plans or what but they have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 35 games versus opponents from the NBA Central Division. The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on a Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus an opponents with a winning record on the road and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. They have covered 5 of their last 6 home games and 11 of their last 14 games versus the NBA Southwest Division. DALLAS IS 0-9 ATS IN THEIR LAST NINE TRIPS TO MILWAUKEE and the way Jennings is playing right now this team has some new life, they have some great young players and all around they should be able to beat the Mavericks at home in this game to extend their win streak to five games. This city is definitely buzzing.

Trend of the Game: Milwaukee is 9-0 ATS in their last nine games at home against Dallas.


Milwaukee 106, Dallas 98





:toast:





GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!

 

[VenomousSanction]

same card Mista.. did u REALLY lay 6.5 on ATL??

 

[NyMets609]

where the hell do you see -6.5 its 3 or 3.5 across the board?

 

[MistaFlava]

I'm a complete idiot, second day in a row I do that. It should say -3.5, just saw the typo now. My apologies. Last night I forgot to post a line for the New England play (which I had at +1).

Again I track all my plays at wagerline as 'mistaflava' so ya I had the -3.5 on this.

 

[MistaFlava]

Thanks OldMan for making the changes!

 

[MistaFlava]

WEEK 4 RECAP

Atlanta -3.5 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
Milwaukee -1.5



1-1 ATS (+14.00 Units) this week with more to come!





:toast:

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Tuesday, November 17


Miami Heat -6.5 (10 Units)

The Miami Heat have looked like complete dog shit their last two games. I was on the Cleveland Cavaliers large last week when they came here with Shaq and shocked the Heat in what was a pretty damn good game to watch. I then thought of backing the Heat in their next game against the New Jersey Nets in what looked like a perfect spot for a bounce back but something was wrong and I had a bad feeling that the team would have more of a letdown in that game then they would a bounce back and sure enough they won by only one point against the worst team in the NBA and they looked like crap. So tonight is their big bounce back spot and this should be a good game. Jermaine O'Neal is back for the game tonight and he is going to bring some great presence down low and off the bench for the Heat. I have to say right now that if it wasn't for Kevin Durant I don't know that Oklahoma City would really have any wins this season because this kid is going off right now and my personal opinion is that he needs to move to a team that can put him in the spotlight. The Thunder have played really well on the road this season but the bottom line is that they are facing a pissed off Miami team that is definitely looking to get back on track. Oklahoma City has been very good on the spread. Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games as a favorite of 5 to 10.5 points and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as a favorite of 5 to 10.5 points. I prefer betting on Miami against Western Conference opponents as they have covered 5 of their last 7 games versus those teams. This is a great spot to bet Miami and do not be afraid of the large line.

Trend of the Game: Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games as a favorite of 5 to 10.5 points.


Miami 108, Oklahoma City 93





Houston Rockets -3 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***

Alright so there are a bunch of you taking the Phoenix Suns tonight but I really don't think you have watched these guys play lately. I am a huge Toronto Raptors fan and I watched the Phoenix-Toronto game the other night and believe me when I say that the only reason the Raptors lost that game was because of horrendous game management which has been a problem for the Raptors coaching staff ever since Vince Carter left Toronto. I know this has nothing to do with anything in this game but the Toronto Raptors have only 1 game winning buzzer beating shot since Vince Carter was traded many years ago? How unreal is that. Bad coaching is right. So the bottom line is that Phoenix is not playing good basketball right now and they failed to cover the spread in their last two games and in essence they should actually be 0-2 SU as well in those last two games. The Rockets on the other hand are coming into this game with quite the head of steam as they went to Los Angeles on Sunday and beat the Lakers by 10 points so there is no way they come back home and throw a dud against a struggling Phoenix Suns team. The last time the Rockets were at home they beat Memphis by 25 points and their only home loss this season was to the Lakers in overtime 103-102. This team is hot. You do not bet against Houston in this spot at any point in time. Believe me. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning record on the road and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games overall. Houston is also 5-1 ATS in their last six games played on only 1 days rest and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite. The Rockets have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games versus Western Conference opponents and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a game where they scored 100+ points the game before. Phoenix has been very good in past seasons playing here in Houston but I love the way the Rockets are playing right now and this group is actually a lot better off without both Yao Ming and T-Mac in the lineup. Rockets roll the listless Suns tonight.

Trend of the Game: Houston is 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.


Houston 118, Phoenix 100





Detroit Pistons +10 (10 Units)

I marked this down a few nights ago when I knew the line would be a little inflated because of the way these two teams have played the entire season but the bottom line on this right now is that Detroit is starting to come around and they are starting to play some good basketball as they have won three of their last four games and they have done all of that without the services of both Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince who have both been out for the most part of this season. You would think the Lakers could just come into this game, score their 100 points and win by an easy 10+ points but in their last five games the Pistons are averaging 97.0 points per game and shooting 48.3% from the floor which is not much worse than the Lakers who are averaging 101.8 points per game in those games and shooting only 45.9% from the floor. During that stretch the Pistons have wins over Washington, Charlotte and Philadelphia and their defense is what is keeping them in games and giving them a shot to win at the end as they have allowed only 91.5 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those opponents to shoot 42.5% from the floor. With both Luke Walton and Pau Gasol out for this game, the Lakers do lack some size down low (depth wise) and I think they continue to struggle as they are only 3-7 ATS in their 10 games this season and they are having problems with team chemistry right now. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and they have covered the spread in 20 of their last 28 road games as an underdog of 5 to 10.5 points. The Lakers have been favored in every single game they played this season and they have gone 3-7 ATS in those games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a rare double digit loss at home which just goes to show that when things are not going well in LA-LA Land, they are not going well and they don't really get any better anytime soon. The Pistons are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games played in Los Angeles and they have covered the spread in 12 of their last 18 games against the Lakers (with one of those being a push). I think Detroit shocks the Lakers and sends concerns about how this Lakers team is performing as a of late. Pistons come to play tonight.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games as an underdog of 5 to 10.5 points.


Detroit 96, LA Lakers 95





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GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!

 

[indiana]

M.Flava..............

thank you for the plays.....BOL tonight with all your action

indy

 

[WipeMeDown]

M.Flava, do you know that Prince and Hamilton are both out ??

Not sure if you knew, but it could be a long night with those 2 out

 

[Goget]

Ouch!

 

[MistaFlava]

WEEK 4 RECAP

Atlanta -3.5 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
Milwaukee -1.5
Miami -6.5
Houston -3 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
Detroit +10



1-4 ATS (-35.50 Units) this week with more to come!





:toast:

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Wednesday, November 18


Atlanta Hawks -7.5 (10 Units)

You know the public is backing this Miami team again tonight and I really considered it after the way they played last night but that was the second game in a row this team was supposed to be on the rebound from a bad game but instead they played another bad game and their asses handed to them against Oklahoma City at home. So where do you draw the line here and finally accept that this team is not playing good basketball at all? That is now three games in a row that they miss the spread cover by at least 8 points based on whatever the original spread was and something is going on with the chemistry of this unit. Believe me when I say Atlanta is not the place to fix your problems as they are perfect both SU and ATS at home this season and they have knocked around opponents like there is no tomorrow. RIGHT NOW ATLANTA IS THE #1 TEAM IN THE NBA IF YOU ASK ME and how quickly everyone forgot about the playoff matchup between these two teams that went to 7 games last season. I want to go back to that series because apart from Game 2, which Miami won quite easily, Atlanta beat the Heat at home in that series three times and all three of those times they won the game big. As a matter of fact Atlanta won Game 1 by 26 points at home, they won Game 5 by 15 points at home and then they won Game 7 by 13 points at home as well. As much as you want to believe Miami can bounce back tonight, something is wrong with this team. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus opponents that have a winning percentage of .600 or better on the season. Atlanta on the other hand is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 5 to 10.5 points, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 5 to 10.5 points. Atlanta is also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off 1 days rest and they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. They are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 home games and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. Miami sucks big time in Atlanta and they suck big time in recent games.

Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.


Atlanta 106, Miami 89





Dallas Mavericks -1.5 (10 Units)

My original thoughts on this game were to bank on the Spurs winning their first road game of the season tonight because this is a heated rivalry and their level of motivation will probably be higher than normal but they have not only lost all three road games this season but they have looked horrendous doing it. The last time San Antonio won a game in Dallas was back in late December of 2008 and believe it or not the Spurs have since that day lost three games here and lost those games by 5 points in March 2009, by 21 points in the playoffs last season and by 9 points in that same playoff series last season. So they have struggled to win games in Dallas and that should continue tonight. I say that because in their three away games this season the Spurs lost by 7 points at Chicago, they lost by 14 points at Utah and then they lost by 12 at Portland the next road game right after that. The Spurs are having some serious issues on defense right now as they have allowed 103.4 points per game in their last three games and have allowed their last three opponents to shoot 47.6% from the floor in those games. Both teams can score 100 points a game so the only way to go in this game is with the home team that is playing better defense and that is going to keep the Spurs winless on the road. San Antonio is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus the NBA Southwest Division, they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record and they are now 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Spurs are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. Dallas on the other hand is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite and they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games versus a team with a losing record on the road. They are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite and this team is getting better and better by the week. The Home Team has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams and San Antonio is only 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Dallas. Mavericks should roll here.

Trend of the Game: Dallas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus the NBA Southwest Division.


Dallas 109, San Antonio 95





Portland Trail Blazers -10.5 (5 Units)

I was on the Detroit Pistons last night and even though this might look like some kind of bitter fight back to a team that was down 20+ points in the fourth quarter, that fought back to put themselves in a spread covering position with under a minute left in their game against the Lakers last night only to blow the spread and lost by 13 as a 10 point underdog in the game. Had the Pistons had a few days to rest in between games against tough Western Conference road opponents I would have probably considered them in this game but they are playing this game on 0 days rest, they have sucked in this position all season long and I just don't see them keeping this game close against a Blazers team that has won some home games by large margins the last few seasons. Keep in mind that Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are still out and apart from recent road games I remember the road games where Detroit lost by 11 at Milwaukee earlier this season and then followed that up with another 11 point loss this time at Toronto. Were the Blazers are a very good team and they are sure to be happy at home coming off a five game road trip the past week or so. The Pistons have covered the spread in only 7 of their last 22 games versus the NBA Northwest Division, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games overall, they are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of 10+ points the game before and they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Detroit is also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and they are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning record at home on the season. Most importantly Detroit is 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming off 0 days rest in those games. Portland is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a road team with a losing record away from home this season and they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games overall. This is going to be a good game and the Blazers are going to take advantage of an undermanned Pistons team that is coming off a tough second half against the Lakers last night. Blazers roll.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest.


Portland 104, Detroit 88





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GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!

 

[MistaFlava]

Pretty damn close on the MIA-ATL score...off by one :-D

 

[MistaFlava]

Not a bad night but what the hell was that by Portland in the fourth quarter??? 6-2 ATS in all sports, see you all tomorrow.

 

[MistaFlava]

WEEK 4 RECAP

Atlanta -3.5 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
Milwaukee -1.5
Miami -6.5
Houston -3 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
Detroit +10
Atlanta -7.5
Dallas -1.5
Portland -10.5



3-5 ATS (-21.00 Units) this week with more to come!





:toast:

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Thursday, November 19


New Orleans Hornets +7.5 (5 Units)

This was not an easy choice because going against the Suns is generally not a bad idea but I have not been impressed with this team as of late when they are favored in games like this one in a spot where they should winning games by 20+ points. Let's face it. Nobody is going to give the Hornets a shot in this game because their superstar point guard Chris Paul is out for the game and out for a while. I have learned from past experiences that you never count out a team in the NBA even if their best player is out and the reason for that is that other guys are willing to step up and take some of those points home and the system itself changes sometimes for the better and sometimes for the bad. In this case in their first game without Paul, the Hornets got their asses handed to them by Atlanta who have covered the spread in all their games except one. In their second game without Paul the Hornets showed they can still win to play as the beat the Clippers 110-102 as a two point home underdog. What I remember from Phoenix playing in New Orleans is that the Suns don't ever really have the chance to blowout the Hornets. In their last visit here, the Suns managed to win the game by 5 points. The time before that the Suns lost by 13 points. The time before that Phoenix lost by 17 points and the beat goes on really. This is just not a place where the Suns normally play well. I know not having Paul in the lineup is a big deal but David West and Peja can still score points on a Suns defense that has allowed 109.0 points per game in their last five games. New Orleans is coming off a 110 performance, good enough for me. What has bothered me about the Suns the last two or three seasons is their lack of consistency. They normally follow an ATS spread cover with a bad game and they are only 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a spread cover the game before. They are also horrendous on TNT Thursday Night basketball covering only 5 of their last 22 games played on TNT Thursday Nights and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite of 5 to 10.5 points. Not good news for their backers tonight. The Hornets on the other hand have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a home underdog, they are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games versus a team with a winning record and believe it or not they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the Phoenix Suns. So once again they always play the Suns tough and the Underdog has covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings. I love the Hornets in this spot with everyone going the other way. UPSET TIME!

Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Phoenix.


New Orleans 105, Phoenix 104





Los Angeles Lakers -9 (10 Units)

I was on the Detroit Pistons to cover the 10 point spread at the Lakers the other night and even though they had the cover with about 1:00 but then blew it, the game wasn't even close the entire second half and believe me the Lakers won that game by a lot more than the listed 13 points and Kobe Bryant was on fire. Now the Bulls come to town and I'm sure the Lakers know how dangerous this team can be but looking at past visits to Los Angeles, I just don't see how the Bulls would keep this game close. First of all, in recent road games, the Bulls beat Sacramento on Tuesday night but they were favored in that game and the Kings are horrendous. Prior to that game the Bulls lost by 10 points in Toronto and they lost by 8 points in Miami and 18 points in Boston. Against Western Conference teams with winning records the Bulls have struggled and I remember the last time they were here they kept the game close but only because of outstanding games from Ben Gordon and Aaron Gray and neither one of those two players is playing tonight. I think I can trust this Lakers team at home on TNT Thursday Night basketball as they have been winning home games pretty big this season. Despite struggling in their first two home games of the season, the Lakers managed to get it together and hand Altanta their only loss of the season in a 7 point home win. They then went on the road and came back to beat Memphis by 16 at home, they beat New Orleans by 26 points at home, they beat Phoenix at home by 19 points and they are coming off a that 13 point home win over the Pistons. The scary part about this wager is that Chicago is 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus Western Conference opponents but if anyone is going to end that, it's Kobe and the Lakers. The Bulls have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 32 games coming off a win of 10 or more points and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog (they miss Ben Gordon I can tell you that much) and 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on only 1 days rest. The Lakers are very good at home and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a losing road record on the season. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus NBA Central Division opponents, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games played on TNT Thursday Night Basketball. Chicago is 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers and I just don't see them keeping this game close in this environment. I am going with the Lake Show on a Thursday Night...should be good.

Trend of the Game: LA Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a losing record on the road.


LA Lakers 104, Chicago 86





:toast:





GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!

 

[T-CANE]

gl to ya and I like the 190 pts in LAK game as I'm leaning towards under in this one.

 

[MistaFlava]

Today:


6-0 ATS in CBB

1-0 ATS in NFL

2-0 ATS in NBA

1-0 ATS in CFB


10-0 ATS today...a perfect day!!!

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Today:


6-0 ATS in CBB

1-0 ATS in NFL

2-0 ATS in NBA

1-0 ATS in CFB


10-0 ATS today...a perfect day!!!

But with your money management if you lose one play tomorrow you could be down.

 

[dl36]

But with your money management if you lose one play tomorrow you could be down.

hno: