MistaFlava's NBA Week 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Mini-Writeups & Analysis)

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MistaFlava's 2009-2010 NBA Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

Alright for the first time in about five seasons I am going to try and handicap the NBA for a full season and not just at the end of the football season. I have done well in the past, some remember me from my service year where I went on a mad run in college hoops and NBA and I would like to think I know what I am doing here.

Most of you know my capping style, I provide reasons why I like a wager and the first couple of weeks are going to be all about getting a good feel.


1 Unit = $100


Some of you don't like me, some don't like my style and some don't like my money management and that's fine because feedback (negative and positive) keeps me motivated and I continue posting regardless of how I do.

The key for me this season is going to be to keep a good balance between all the sports I handicap and I will do that by keeping things as simple as possible and posting only mini-writeups for some sports when I don't have time to get all extensive.

LETS MAKE SOME CASH!

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Tuesday, October 27


Cleveland Cavaliers -5 (10 Units)

The Cleveland Cavaliers and their fans are pretty damn excited coming into this season because now that Shaq is in town, the Cavs are arguably the best team in the NBA on paper and this is their first chance to show the NBA world first hand, what they are going to be all about this season. Tony Allen and Big Baby Davis are out for the Celtics tonight while D-West (Delonte) is out for the Cavaliers because of personal matters. I remember making a ton of cash last season and the season before betting on Boston when they were underdogs because for obvious reasons you should not make a strong team like than an underdog. The general feeling for this game is that the points are too much but I completely disagree with that. What I can remember even more clearly from the last two seasons is that Cleveland and Lebron completely dominated NBA Atlantic Division opponents and I don't see why that would change in this game. The Cavaliers are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games versus opponents from the NBA Atlantic and they finished the 2008-2009 season by going 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite while going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5 to 10.5 points. We are talking about a team that has covered the spread in 36 of their last 51 home games and they have been a great wager when favored. Don't ever doubt that. The Favorite has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams and Boston has covered only 6 of their last 26 meetings with Cleveland. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games played in Cleveland and I am fading them to the bank in my first play of the season. LEBRON, SHAQ...WADDDDDUP!

Trend of the Game: Boston is 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Cleveland.


Cleveland 103, Boston 88





Portland Trail Blazers -9 (5 Units)

I don't think much needs to be said about the Houston Rockets and how they are going to struggle heading into the early parts of this season. First and foremost Tracy McGrady (wish his ass was still in Toronto) is out until the end of November, Yao Ming is probably never going to play another game in the NBA or anywhere for that matter and Ron Artest is gone and playing for the Lakers now. I really fail to see how they could even remotely come close to keeping this game within 10 points because you all know how good Portland has been over the last couple of seasons at home and other than thinking the points are too much there is no reason to go against them here. I clearly remember the end of last season when Houston was a very good fade as a road underdog because of all the injuries and the problems they had and again I don't see this being any different. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and although that was last season, the team is not much healthier or much better at all. Portland on the other hand made me some nice cash at home and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games coming into this season and they finished last season by covering 13 of their last 17 games as the favorite so at least we know they are a team we can trust in spots like this. Who can disagree with me that Portland was one of the best ATS betting teams not only the second half of last season but the entire season pretty much and they look healthy enough for me to back them coming into this game. This could be the year that the Blazers really make some noise and they catch the Rockets at a perfect and vulnerable spot. Fade the Rockets until they can show anything on that court. Easy money to the bank baby!

Trend of the Game: Portland is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall.


Portland 98 , Houston 79





more to come...
 

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Nothing more comforting than seeing Flava on one of your plays !~~~!

I think you're on them for the wrong reasons but either way I like the Portland play.

Good Luck @)
 

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flava.......

thank you for the write ups and plays..bol today

indy
 

mr2

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lol. we have opposite picks. good luck to you though. hope we both have good seasons. the cavs are going to have a great season but i cant agree with you on the rockets. tmac sucks and nobody in houston wants him here. the local papers talk about getting rid of him every season but no team wants to pick up his huge contract. thank god this is the last year. ron artest hogs the ball a lot and ruined a lot of games for the rockets last year in the final minutes. the only good player missing from the line up is yao. but even he slows the team down. his style of play doesnt fit with aaron brooks and rick adelman. this sounds crazy but i think they might have a better season this year than they did last year.
 

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The home team has won in the past 10 years in this series.

Cleveland Moneyline -210
 

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Wednesday, October 28


Philadelphia 76ers +9 (10 Units)

I think this is a must for anyone who watched the Boston-Cleveland game last night and for anyone who had the opportunity to watch the Sixers play on the road last season. What we saw with Cleveland last night was a team that had a serious hangover from 2008-2009 because they came out of the gates and grabbed and 15+ point lead very early in the game but gave it all back by the very beginning of the second quarter and then it was over from then. They were cooked, they were done and that was all. So you would have to expect the Sixers to come into this game with some sort of energy to try and spoil the home debut of the Magic. Rashard Lewis, who played a huge part in Orlando's success last season, is out until later in the month when his 10 game suspension is done and Hedoku Turkoglu (another huge part in their run to the championship finals last season) is also gone having gone to the Toronto Raptors. In comes Vince Carter who is a bit washed up if you ask me but he will fill a nice void for now. I just don't know that he has the right chemistry right now. The Sixers were a strong underdog wager last season as they covered 4 of their last 5 as underdogs and they were 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus NBA Southeast Division opponents. The Sixers are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 5 to 10.5 points and the Underdog has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. The Magic are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games versus the NBA Atlantic Division and they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall as a favorite of 5 to 10.5 points. This is a new look for the Magic and it will take some time to get things together. I think this is a great spot for a big point underdog to do some damage.

Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.


Philadelphia 103, Orlando 102





Cleveland Cavaliers -5 (5 Units)

I hate having to go against my own pride and joy the Toronto Raptors but all I can ever remember is how badly they get dominated by the Cavaliers at home and I don't know that they are mature enough as a group right now to get around that. It also sucks that the Cavs lost their season opener to the Celtics last night because now there is no letdown spot and there is no time to sit around and watch. The Raptors have a tremendous team on the floor this season and believe me give them a couple of weeks and they are going to contend for the Eastern Conference Championship by end of the year. I think the Raptors are going to be the surprise team in the NBA this season but again it takes time to mesh. This is a win/win situation for me unless the Cavaliers take this game by only a few points. Going back to last season the Cavaliers were a team you could always trust on the road in this range of points as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games as a favorite of 5 to 10.5 points and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite so you can trust them here. They were also one of the best teams to bet on when playing on no rest as they covered the spread in 13 of their last 17 games played with 0 days rest in between. The Raptors for some reason have always been a team I can only bet on when favored as they have covered only 20 of their last 64 games as an underdog and only 9 of their last 33 games as an underdog of 5 to 10.5 points. They were only 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home underdog and only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 5 to 10.5 points. Cleveland has covered five straight spreads against the Raptors and they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Toronto so again I remember well how badly they dominate here. Watchout tonight.

Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Toronto.


Cleveland 97, Toronto 87





San Antonio Spurs -8.5 (10 Units)

If there is one team you can almost always trust to come out of the gates and play some sound and fundamental basketball in their season and home opener, it's the San Antonio Spurs.I know a lot of New Orleans fans are pretty damn disappointed at the way their team performed in the playoffs last year going out in 5 games against the Denver Nuggets and that type of post-season exit has them wanting more. Having said that I just don't think this team has what it takes to compete with the Spurs in their home opener and this is a spot they really struggled in last season. San Antonio is also coming off a very disappointing playoff performance late last season as they went down to the Dallas Mavericks in only 5 games and having another mediocre year is just not going to do it for this team. I said this was a bad spot for the Hornets and I wasn't joking. They have covered only 7 of their last 27 games as an underdog and they covered the spread in only 6 of their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0 to 10.5 points. I have to say that the Home Team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these teams and New Orleans is now 1-5 ATS in their last six games played in San Antonio. I would fade the Hornets on this all day and all night.

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.


San Antonio 108, New Orleans 84





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Denver Nuggets -5.5 (10 Units)

I would like to think this is going to be an explosive start to the season for the Denver Nuggets because they are still disappointed at losing in the Western Conference Final against the LA Lakers last season, a series they could have probably done a lot better in and taken that thing to a seventh and deciding game. The Utah Jazz were also victims of the Lakers last season and they are also going to want to start the season strong but it's going to be tough against a very good and very explosive Nuggets team. Both teams look pretty damn healthy to start the season and I don't think either teams wants to lose their first game of the year but I cannot go against the Nuggets in this spot. If you look at back at least season you will see that Utah has covered only 5 of their last 16 games versus Western Conference opponents and only 4 of their last 14 road games at the end of last season. The Jazz are only 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog and they are they are only 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 5 to 10.5 points. Utah is also 0-9 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog of 5 to 10.5 points and that is some incredible stuff right there. Utah has failed to cover the spread in four straight games against Denver and the Favorite in this series has covered the spread in 22 of the last 32 meetings so Denver is the play tonight boys and girls.

Trend of the Game: Utah is 0-9 ATS in their last nine road games as an underdog of 5 to 10.5 points.


Denver 114, Utah 98





Phoenix Suns -3 (5 Units)

The Phoenix Suns don't have the same advantage as the LA Clippers coming into this game because they have not played a game this season and they still have some off-season issues to workout. Having said that, I still think the Suns are good enough to beat an LA Clippers team that is playing in their home arena two nights in a row and that is coming off a 99-92 loss to the LA Lakers last night. I watched some of that Clippers-Lakers game last night and they played quite well, maybe not well enough to win, but I did see some hop in their game. Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby all had very good games while Baron Davis had a rough start to the season but it will be interesting to see how they react coming off no days rest. What I remember about the Phoenix Suns last season is that they were very good against bad teams and they would almost cover spreads against teams with a losing record. Well indeed they have gone 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a straight up losing record on the season and we all know the Clippers have already, after only one game, gone down that avenue. The Suns were also very good to me as a favorite covering 13 of their last 20 games as a favorite (with one push in there as well). The Clippers are never going to change. They are terrible at home and always have been covering only 18 of their last 55 home games while covering only 7 of their last 26 games versus opponents from the Western Conference. Just keep fading the Clippers and playing the Suns against better opponents. SUNS IS EASY!

Trend of the Game: Phoenix is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a losing record.



Phoenix 109, LA Clippers 97





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Thursday, October 29



Denver Nuggets +8 (10 Units)

How could you not like the Nuggets in this spot. Sure it looks like a pure trap but the value is too high and I don't really care what public percentages are betting on these guys. I was on the Blazers and their pathetic effort the other night against a short handed Houston team and I was lucky to get away with the PUSH in that game. Brandon Roy was terrible in the season opener and I know he can only get better as the season goes on but it might take some time for him to get things going and until he shows me that he can run this team, I am going to fade the Blazers at this price every night of the week against better teams. I have always said this team is only going to go as far as Roy takes them and in the opener it wasn't all that far even though they won. The Nuggets on the other hand had an impressive 114-105 win over the Utah Jazz last night and sure they had to travel and all but they are fresh, the injuries are minimal and both Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups looked like they are ready to ball this season. I remember making a ton of cash on Denver as an underdog away from home last season and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games as an underdog. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday Night Games on TNT and dating back to last season they have now covered the spread in 22 of their last 28 games versus Western Conference opponents. The Blazers on the other hand have sucked on Thursday Night basketball on TNT as they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played on a Thursday. The Nuggets have always dominated this series going back to the last whatever years as they are 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings between the two teams and they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in Portland. I know it looks like a trap but I can't pass this up. NUGGETS FOR ME!

Trend of the Game: Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.


Denver 101, Portland 100





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liking denver tonight also, this game may go into OT, looking @ the over also.

GL

BB
 

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