MistaFlava's NBA Playoffs Wednesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/3-1 ATS in Playoffs)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 NBA Playoffs Record: 3-1 ATS (+9.00 Units)

MistaFlava's 2008-2009 NBA Record: 13-13 ATS (-22.50 Units)

Welcome to my 2008-2009 NBA Playoffs betting. I took a few months off to get a much better feeling for some of these teams and some of the way things are going to go this season. I think i'm a better college capper than I am NBA but I have done well in the past and I have won some large wagers over the years. I think this is the time to catch some good lines because many teams are making changes and many teams are having injury problems. I recommend keeping all wagers small for now and then increasing as the season moves along and as oddsmakers start to drop off a bit.

I took the regular season off but the playoffs are the time to have money on some of these games because these guys actually give a shit at this time of the year.

1 Unit = $100

You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. When things are not going well I don't just sit there and watch, I take action and make myself better. Good Luck to all this week!

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Wednesday, April 22


Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Game 2


View attachment 7055 Philadelphia Sixers +10.5 (10 Units) View attachment 7054

The Philadelphia 76ers pretty much came out of nowhere in Game 1 of this series when they shocked the world and beat the Orlando Magic as +9.5 point underdogs. I know some would say it may not make much sense that the line would be the same for this game but oddsmakers figure the Sixers got lucky and they still don't feel this is a good matchup for the Iguodala and the boys. I would have to say the Sixers played one of their best overall effort games of the season in Game 1 and as tough as it might be to do the exact same thing in their game tonight, we have to look at teams like Houston and Chicago who both won Game 1 as road underdogs in their series only to come back for Game 2 with similar lines, cover the spread but lose the game. The Sixers on the other hand have dollar signs in their eyes and they have visions of another 'W' in this series. With that win in Game 1 of this series, the Sixers are now 4-1 ATS in their last five overall games versus opponents from the NBA Southeast Division and I love the fact that they have not played since the weekend because the Sixers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off two days rest and they should have the energy to keep up in this one. We are also talking about a Sixers team that is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog of 5 to 10.5 points, that is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5 to 10.5 points and that looked pretty damn good in their first playoff game this season. I know this team has struggled at times on the road this year but the Playoffs are a completely different season. I am also aware that the Sixers did not do all that well in their games against the Magic this season but as underdogs they have always played well against Orlando and tonight should be no different. The Sixers played too well in Game 1 to pass up this opportunity to back them against as huge underdogs because a win in this game would pretty much put them in the drivers seat to go back home and find a way to win the series.

The Orlando Magic made me tons of cash both this season and last season (posted online and not posted at all) but having said that I have crashed and burned betting on this team to bounce back from bad games and I don't know what went wrong Game 1 but there is no value whatsoever in backing them in Game 2. The Magic looked completely overmatched in the first game of this series. They had no answer whatsoever defensively for the Sixers and I don't think things are going to be much different in this game. Both teams are more than happy running up and down the court scoring baskets and flexing some of that offensive muscle and unless the Magic decided to completely shut things down in this game, they are going to allow another 100 points to Philadelphia and that means the game is going to be a lot closer than people think in the end. Like I said, I have made a lot of money betting on this Orlando team in the past and unlike what I said before, they do have a good track record coming off straight up losses but those are in the regular season. Having said that, I really don't like the way this Orlando Magic team finished out their regular season as they looked very lacklustre and looked like they were already (in their minds) easily through to the second round of the playoffs no matter who they had to face in the first round. I say that because this team is now 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus Eastern Conference opponents and they are a pathetic 0-7 ATS in their last seven games versus NBA Atlantic Division opponents. This is not a range this team has enjoyed at all this season as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 5 to 10.5 points and much like we saw last game this team is going to struggle to pull away in this game because things are just not working out right now for the once very dangerous Magic. Who knows...maybe they need to go on the road and get things going there before they can win a game in this series. The Magic are a very good team and they were very good at home this season but things are not going well right now and there is no way in hell they deserve to be favored by this many points in this game. I am going to fade Orlando at home as a double digit favorite until oddsmakers start respecting the fact that they are not playing their best basketball.

I think the fact that Dwight Howard had a horrendous Game 1 in this series probably contributed to the shocking results in that game but what makes Howard any better tonight? He still has the eye injury and he could still have problems getting things down down low against a very tough Sixers team that is going to back down for nobody. What I still don't understand with the line for this game is that despite this being a 'Must Win' game for Orlando and despite this looking like a spot they should bounce back in very nicely from their big loss in Game 1, in their three regular season meetings this past season, not once did Orlando manage to win a game by more than 10 points and I just don't see why they would do it now. Apart from a bad first quarter (lost by 14 points) in the very first meeting of the season, this series has pretty much been all Philadelphia as they have managed to keep the games close despite smaller spreads in those games. This is the largest spread (first time in double digits since anyone can remember) for these two teams in a very long time (December 2006) and we should be in for a good one. Right now the Sixers have too much offensive momentum to be slowed down as they are averaging 101.0 points per game in their last five games and shooting 47.3% from the floor in those games while Orlando has been playing like shit and they come into this game shooting only 42.8% from the floor in those games which gives the Sixers bad defense a nice little break here. I say you have to go with the underdog as the dog has covered a whopping 24 of the last 35 meetings between these teams. I really think the Sixers can carry momentum into this game tonight.

Trend of the Game: Orlando is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games versus opponents from the NBA Atlantic Division.


Philadelphia 106, Orlando 101




More to come...
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[pumptender]

good luck i agree

 

[BoutMyMoney]

nice write up flava. im on it for half a unit

 

[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, April 22


Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Game #2


View attachment 7059 Miami Heat +5 (10 Units) View attachment 7058

I completely understand why nobody is going to like this play on Miami in this game because of their 26 point loss to the very same Atlanta team in Game 1 of this series but believe me when I say that Miami is not as bad as they looked and the series is going to be a lot closer than people think. If there was such a thing, and sometimes there is, this would be the Las Vegas sucker bet and I say that because not many people can come up with good reasons for taking the Heat in this game seeing how they lost the first game. When you look back on what happened in Game 1 of this series you have to look no further than the second quarter of that game where Miami was completely run out of the building and ended up losing that quarter by 18 points. Essentially that was the difference, the team never recovered from that and in the end the game was more about resting guys and having them ready for Game 2 than exhausting them by having them out there in a blowout loss. What I do know about Miami is that they are very well coached and in their last four games coming off a loss of 10+ points in the previous game, Miami is a perfect 4-0 ATS in those games. That is good coaching. On that same note Miami is also 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss the game before and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss the game before. I did not want to take Miami in Game 1 because I wasn't sure which Miami team we were going to see. The one where Dwyane Wade completely takes over a game and leads his guys to a win with his 30+ points or the Miami team that is somewhat led by Wade where he does like he did in Game 1 and scores only 19 points. Well I think Miami can keep this game close and I just don't see them going down 2-0 in this series without some kind of fight. Mario Chalmers is playing with an ankle injury and he could be the x-factor in this series if he can stay healthy and provide anywhere between 15-20 points per game, the Heat have a very good chance of pushing this series very deep and possibly coming out of this with a shocking first round win. Everyone is already hating on Miami but believe me they are not done with and we will see why tonight.

The Atlanta Hawks have the public on their side tonight because anytime you beat an opponent by 26 points in the first playoff game of the year as a short point favorite, you better believe all the sheep are going to gather for a feeding the next time around. I have to admit myself that after that first game it doesn't look like anyone can stop the Hawks at home but again I have to point out that Dwyane Wade was pretty much M.I.A the entire game and Miami could not possibly play any worse than they did in that game. Having said that, we should expect a much better game from the Heat and a much better coaching performance by their staff. Atlanta won a whopping 32 of their 42 home games this past regular season and yes they were very good here but they are beatable and I think they will probably approach this Game 2 with a little bit too much confidence seeing how easily they won the first game in this series. That would be a big mistake in the playoffs and the Hawks might learn the hard way tonight. I have watched this Atlanta team play quite a few times this season and what I have noticed is that despite playing very well at home when favored and despite always beating teams that have losing records on the season, the Hawks tend to lose focus sometimes and they have come up with some shocking losses at times this season. Atlanta comes into this game a pathetic 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win the game before and once again this goes back to the fact that they tend to get a little bit too confident coming off a win the game before and that could come back to bite them in Game 2. We all know Miami is going to be hungry because the Heat are not as bad as their Game 1 loss and Atlanta has to be ready to weather the storm they have coming their way. Despite beating up on teams at home most of the season, it should also be noted that Atlanta is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season (despite sucking on the road). If you take a look at some of the games these two teams played in recent years you will notice that Miami has always been a good match for Atlanta and I expect we will see more of that in tonight's game. Not so fast Atlanta backers!

Alright so Game 2 is pivotal for the Miami Heat and believe me when I say that we are going to see a much better effort out of these guys than we did in the first game. The oddsmakers in Vegas could have easily jacked up the line for this game but they chose to keep a very similar line to the one in the first game and that has me thinking that they want the public sheep to go with Atlanta (which they already have). BIG MISTAKE! The line does not make sense at all, please stay away from Atlanta tonight or you will be in for one hell of a surprise here. I say that because despite not playing well in the opener, Miami is a very capable team with a series changing superstar in Dwyane Wade who knows what it takes to win playoff games. I mean the Heat are actually 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Atlanta (including the Game 1 loss) and overall they have now covered 21 of their last 30 games against Atlanta which makes is hard to believe they are going to lose the first two games of this series. In their only trip to Atlanta prior to the playoffs, Miami came into that game as a +9.5 point underdog and they came away with a nice point spread cover (and lost the game by two points). They led going into the fourth quarter and like I mentioned before, we did not see the real Miami team in the first game of this series. You can all expect something different tonight with the boys from South Florida. Game 1 was definitely not a reflection of how capable this team and I think Miami comes into this game tonight with a huge chip on their shoulders and I see Dwyane Wade dropping at least 30-40 points to lead his team to a huge Game 2 win which would mean Miami takes control of this series heading back home.

Trend of the Game: Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss.


Miami 94, Atlanta 92




More selections to come...
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[eoghater]

flava, that heat +9.5 cover was courtesy of chris quinn and his posse over speedy claxton. It was a throw away game for both sides.

I can see this being as a setup, after what i saw last night in Portland. I guess I'll be one of the sheep to get slaughtered.

 

[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, April 22


Western Conference Quarterfinals - Game #2


View attachment 7061 Denver Nuggets -6 (25 Units) View attachment 7062

***PLAY OF THE DAY***

The New Orleans Hornets looked completely lost in the first game of this series and I know I am going to contradict myself when I say this but...I see the Hornets being just as lost tonight in a game they know they have no chance winning. Much like the Nuggets, New Orleans made sure all their starters were out of Game 1 pretty much by the time the middle of the fourth quarter came calling and that was a smart move because there is no way you are going to be ready for Game 2 if you spend all your time and energy trying to play from 20 points down in Game 1. It was an ugly affair and no matter what Chris Paul did in that game, the Hornets could not stop Denver and their scoring abilities as they allowed 113 points in that game (a bunch of those by the Nuggets bench late in the game). I think that is a big problem for New Orleans because Paul played the best he could yet it wasn't enough and I just don't see him playing any better tonight which probably means the Hornets are heading for the exact same fate as they had in the first game of this series. New Orleans comes into this game in a horrendous betting spot as they are a horrendous road team that has covered the spread in only 3 of their last 10 road games overall. They are also only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games that follow a straight up loss of 10 or more points and the Hornets have sucked ass as underdogs covering only 8 of their last 28 games overall when tabbed the underdog (believe me I lost on these guys all season as underdogs). New Orleans has covered the spread in only 7 of their last 26 road games as an underdog and they finished the regular season struggling against opponents from the Western Conference. I don't doubt they are going to win at least one game in this series but something tells me it won't come until they get home. The Hornets are also 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games as an underdog, they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus NBA Northwest Division opponents and are now a perfect 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games as an underdog of 5 to 10.5 points. Like I said before this is not the spot for them to bounce back and for Chris Paul and his crew, the series does not start until they can go home and regroup in time for Games 3 and 4 of this series. No way New Orleans looks any better tonight than they did in the first game of the series. Bank that please.

The Denver Nuggets are one hell of a team when they play at home and they were so good in the first game of this series that their starters were all out of Game 1 by the time the fourth quarter came rolling around and yet the team still managed to win the game by almost 30 points. Not only did the Nuggets have the privilege of resting all their guys heading into this game but Carmelo Anthony never showed up in Game 1 as he went only 4 of 12 from the field and recorded only 13 points total. If he can get things tonight, and you know he is going to want to get it done, the Nuggets are quite possibly the most dangerous team in the Western Conference right now as they are loaded with weapons and even good teams like New Orleans are learning the hard way how tough it is to win in a building where the Nuggets lost only 8 games all season. Denver is not about to let New Orleans stay close in this game and much like we saw in Game 1, you can bank on both teams having their bench players playing once the fourth quarter comes rolling around. Like I said before, if Melo gets going at any point of this game, we could see a bigger blowout than the first game. Unlike New Orleans, this is a perfect spot for Denver as the Nuggets are now 5-1 ATS in their last six games as the favorite in a game and they are a whopping 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 5 to 10.5 points. WOW WOW WOW! All I need to say about that. That would also mean that the team has covered four of their last five games at home and they have covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 games versus Western Conference opponents and have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season. Prior to Game 1 of this series, did you know that Denver had gone 0-8 ATS in their last eight Conference Quarterfinal games the last two seasons and I think it says a lot that this team was finally able to find their groove this early in the playoffs instead of playing poorly right away, crashing out of the post-season and wondering what ever went wrong in the first place. I can also tell you right now that Denver averages about 12 or more points per home game than New Orleans averages in their road games this season and the Nuggets are too fast and too powerful for this New Orleans defense to keep up. I think with their past disasters in the playoffs, the Nuggets are going to make it a priority to keep their basketball feet on the peddle in this game because letting up and having a letdown game is not an option and winning this game huge is all this team can think about. I like them enough to make them my PLAY OF THE DAY!

These are two teams who know each other very well because they face each other about 6-7 times per regular season anyways and we have seen some good battles on quite a few occasions. Having said that, the playoffs are a lot more intense and teams have to prepare themselves mentally for a full series and not just one road game or just one home game. New Orleans managed to win their first game of the season in Denver but it has been all disasters since then and in their next two trips to Denver, New Orleans has lost both games by an average of 17 points per game. For some reason the home team seems to find a way to not only win and cover spreads when these two teams play but they find a way to completely shut down their opponents and find a way to win those games big. In the past New Orleans has had success playing in this building but again this is the playoffs, we are talking about one of the highest scoring teams in basketball when the Nuggets are healthy and we are talking about a building that has seen the home team lose only 8 times all season. You should never bet on an underdog to cover the spread unless you think they can win the game straight up and I'm sorry but the Hornets are not winning this game. I already mentioned that they got the best out of Chris Paul and the minutes he played in the first game and I just don't see him getting any better in this game which means this team is heading in the same direction. Carmelo Anthony on the other hand never really got going in Game 1 and yet his team still managed to win by 29 points so the only way for Melo is up and that can be a scary thing. Don't even think about this guys, we are heading in the same direction as Game 1 and that is a huge win for Denver at home where they kick some serious ass.

Trend of the Game: Denver is 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 5 to 10.5 points.


Denver 109, New Orleans 92




:toast:




I finally got a full night slate of games in with writeups for the NBA and I hope to continue my success betting in the playoffs. I was 10-2 ATS in NFL Playoffs betting this past post-season and I am looking to keep the same kind of success going for the NBA Post-season. Good Luck to everyone, also going with some hockey and baseball tonight. Let's cash.
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[DaiJoe]

bol today flava

 

[PowerT]

Thanks!! GL! I'll try them out.

 

[chaosman]

nice flava gonna be a real interesting night

 

[CaptFlippy]

Good Luck Flava!
the capt.

 

[VenomousSanction]

gl Mista.. like lookin at ur score prections bro

 

[JWinner17]

BOL on the Nuggets... I will be playing the Nuggets moneyline!!!

 

[MistaFlava]

Philadelphia in the bank $

 

[NickelsAndDimes]

nice start to the night Flava Flave...Heat are playing well but these 2 wont mean anything if the Nuggets fall flat on there faces...Lets go Nuggets! :toast:

 

[CarolinaJ.E.D]

Thanks Read your post put a little change$$$ on it ,an chaaa chinnng !!!!
76ers get it done nice hit im rollin with you on Dever and doublein Down @)

 

[MistaFlava]

Miami in the bank $$

 

[MistaFlava]

Denver in the bank $$$

 

[Bennyshoe]

very very nice sir. congrats!!!

 

[papster]

On the money!

smokin' pics tonight!
Congrats!!

 

[chaosman]

cha-ching mista flava at it again!