MistaFlava's College Football Week 5 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

2018 MistaFlava's CFB Record: 10-5 ATS (+45.00 Units)

What a great Week 4 with the new approach. Kept the slate very simple, only 5 plays, put some additional work into each and every game and came away with a nice profit. Kind of the same approach this week so let's get this party started.

Good luck to everyone

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Saturday, September 29



Syracuse Orangemen +25.5 (10 Units)

This is either the trap of the century or the books in Vegas have completely lost their minds. I'm a little concerned that 70% of the betting public is going in on this one because it's not my style at all to follow this trend but the number seems way too high. Syracuse is 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS on the season and they have been one of the surprise teams of the 2018 season. They come into this game averaging 523.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.2 yards per play and 49.5 points per game. Clemson is by far the best D they will have seen all season but Syracuse can make some plays in the air where Clemson allow 9.0 yards per pass attempt this season and have yet to intercept a single pass. The Cuse line is good enough to sustain the big time Clemson pressure up front. Having said all of that, Cuse is good in the air, they are good at the long ball and that should help them keep this close.

The Clemson Tigers have controversy as QB Kelly Bryant has asked for a transfer less than a season after leading the Tigers to the four-team BCS Playoffs (crushed by Alabama in the semis). In comes newcomer QB Trevor Lawrence who has been pretty damn good (9 Touchdowns and 2 Interceptions) with a QB Rating of 188.7. So the Tigers have a very good offense and they have a very good passing game but is Syracuse capable of getting stops? I would say so. So far in 2018 this defense has recorded 13 sacks, they have 7 interceptions and they have recovered 2 fumbles. Clemson are not exactly turnover prone but in four games they have turned the ball over 5 times. This Cuse defense is somewhat underrated and if they can get some stop and/or turnovers...anything can happen. I think they can.

So far this season Clemson has been favored twice by 20+ points and gone 0-2 ATS in those games. Syracuse comes into this game on an impressive 6-1 ATS run in road games dating back to last season and they are unbeaten (spread wise) in their last 6 September games going 5-0-1 ATS. If you think Cuse has been playing well against crappy teams you are wrong because they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played versus a team with a winning record on the season. Clemson come in having covered only 1 of their last 5 games overall. With the current controversy surrounding the team (not that big a deal but still), it would be hard to see them winning by this much.

Trend of the Game: Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.


Clemson 30, Syracuse 27




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...




Texas Tech Red Raiders +3.5 (10 Units)

This folks is going to be a good game. West Virginia take their 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record on the road to Lubbock, Texas where they can probably expect things to be hostile for them. West Virginia has outyarded their three opponents this season by at least 146 total yards each time and a combined 750+ total yards on all three opponents. That's impressive. Having said that, I think the Red Raiders will give them a hard time in this one. Texas Tech, not known for their defense, have held their last three opponents to 22.0 points per game on 5.3 yards per play. Their last three opponents have recorded only 48.4% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt (WVU average 11.3 in their last three games) and a QB Rating of 113.1 while forcing 6 turnovers. They are also decent against the run allowing 3.8 yards per carry. Things won't be as easy as they've been for West Virginia.

Now the real question so many will ask is can Texas Tech's offense keep up with the Mountaineers and their scoring? I say, why the heck not? They are at home and QB Alan Bowman has thrown for 1557 yards this season, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 10 Touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. In their last three games Texas Tech have scored 60.3 points per game and recorded an incredible 669.3 total yards of offense and 7.2 yards per play. I don't care who that is against, those are some impressive numbers. West Virginia is pretty good against the run but they have been vulnerable in the passing game as their last three opponents have completed 61.5% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and this defense has only 1 interception and 1 fumble recovery in their last three games. We are about to find out quite a bit about the Neers D and my prediction is it's not very good. Texas Tech should have a field day.

Texas Tech is not a letdown kind of team. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring 40 or more points in the previous game. They are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they win by 20+ points in their previous game. West Virginia are 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they allowed less than 100 rushing yards to an opponent so they are due for a letdown here and as mentioned before, I think they are going to be caught off guard by how good the Texas Tech passing game is and how decent their defense can be. I like the upset.

Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring 40+ points in their previous games.


Texas Tech 35, West Virginia 26




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Baylor Bears +23.5 (10 Units)

Hold on just a second here. Let's look at the last few times Baylor came to Oklahoma and the results aren't that bad. They lost by 21 in 2016, they won by 34 in 2014 (RGIII and friends) and they lost by 8 in 2012. Not bad. Baylor comes into this one playing some decent ball. It seems like the Sooners D is having trouble stopping opponents and Baylor is averaging 36.3 points per game on 486.8 total yards of offense and 7.0 yards per play this season. The Bears can run the ball (5.1 yards per carry) and they can throw the ball (310.3 passing yards per game and 8.9 yards per pass attempt). Oklahoma for some reason has allowed 20.8 points per game this season and have been good against the run but struggled against teams who can throw downfield, allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt this season and a QB Rating of 131.0 to all opposing QB's. That won't get them very far against this Baylor team.

The narrative for this one is simple. People think Oklahoma will score close to 60 points which should be enough to cover the large spread but the Sooners come in averaging 44.3 points per game this season on 502.3 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 8.4 yards per play. So yes they can move the ball and score in bunches but when you can't play defense it's hard to cover large spreads. Baylor's defense, although not very tested yet, have played well allowing only 23.5 points per game. Their run defense has not been good and they've been run on big time all season but they make up for it in the pass defense where opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of only 117.8 this season and where the Bears have allowed 5.6 yards per pass attempt and come up with 2 interceptions and 9 sacks. I don't expect much from this defense but I do expect them to make a few key stops to keep this spread in range and let their offense do the rest.

I was talking about Baylor's success in Oklahoma earlier and it's the real deal. The Bears come into this game 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played on the road against the Sooners and they are also a very quiet 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games. Oklahoma is coming off a shocking overtime win over Army, at home, and the Sooners are now 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming off a straight up win. I don't know that Baylor can win this one straight up but their offense can compete and score against this Oklahoma defense and that should keep this game close.

Trend of the Game: Baylor is 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to to Norman, Oklahoma


Oklahoma 44, Baylor 34




more to come...

 

[HacheMan]

Nice writeups

GL today Flava

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava........as always great write ups buddy........BOL with all your action today.........look forward to your upcoming thought's........indy

 

[MileHigh]

One of my favorite posters the last few years. GL today MF!

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...


Virginia Tech Hokies +6.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

I've made some big time money taking Duke in a bunch of ball games the last couple of seasons but you have to pick your spots to go against them and this is one of them. I am all over Virginia Tech in this one as they come into the game off a horrendous loss to Old Dominion last week on the road as -27.5 point favorites. Nonetheless you have to give them a break because they also went to Tallahassee to open the season and won 24-3. In their three games this season the Hokies are averaging 40.3 points per game and 501.7 total yards of offense per game on 7.0 yards per play. Duke's defense has been rock solid in all four of their games this season but this game is no about defense. Both teams can play defense. It's about the more effective offense and the Hokies are just that. Pounding the ball for 5.6 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Duke will make some plays but the Hokies are too good to be held off the board.

The Duke Blue Devils are off to a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS start. As good as it gets but I think they will meet their match in this one. They have outyarded only 2 of their 4 opponents this season and they outyarded Army by only 16 total yards. Not impressed. This offense is averaging 37.5 points per game and 6.0 yards per play but they are a run first style of offense and that generally doesn't work well against Virginia Tech who have allowed opponents to rush for only 88.3 rushing yards per game on only 2.9 yards per carry. They are more vulnerable in the passing game but their have tremendous pass rushers and have recorded 9 sacks in three games so far. Duke runs the ball 44.3 times per game compared to 27.5 pass attempts per game so their gameplan is clear as water and I'm telling you guys Virginia Tech can stop the run.

Checkout this series between these two schools. Virginia Tech won 24-3 at home last year and they also won here at Duke in 2016. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 3 points or less so how in the world is the spread so high in this game? Virginia Tech was a -17.5 in this game a year ago and now almost a touchdown underdog? No way. Look back at all the Bud Foster games where he has allowed 40+ points (like they did last week to Old Dominion) and the next time out the Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games the week after. The Underdog has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams and if somehow Duke pulls this off and wins it will be in OT by 3 points. Either way I see Virginia Tech winning this game.

Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 40+ points in the previous game.


Virginia Tech 31, Duke 21




more to come...

 

[stander]

I think the VT quarterback is out. GL man!

 

[MistaFlava]

adding... (each play 10 Units)


BYU-Washington 'UNDER' 47.5
Mississippi +11.5
Oregon State-Arizona State 'OVER' 64
Oregon -2
Southern California -3




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[MistaFlava]

Week 5 Recap


Syracuse +25.5
Texas Tech +3.5
Baylor +23.5
Virginia Tech +6.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
BYU-Washington 'UNDER' 47.5
Mississippi +11.5
Oregon State-Arizona State 'OVER' 64
Oregon -2
South California -3


6-3 ATS (+67.00 Units) this week and now 10-4 ATS last two weeks!


A couple of bad reads today but overall satisfied with my day, specially the late slate. See you all tomorrow for some NFL action!





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