MistaFlava's College Football Week 4 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

2023 MistaFlava College Football Record: 1-5-1 ATS (-45.00 Units)

Not the kind of start to the season I wanted but it's time to get back on track this week. Not sure I was getting a good read on anything the first two weeks but sat on the sidelines Week 3, placed some really small wagers and feel I had a good week. Adding in some system stuff this week. Let's get back in the green baby.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK!

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Saturday, September 23


Vanderbilt Commodores +13.5 (10 Units)

I feel this is a bit of a trap. Vanderbilt comes into this game with an 0-4 ATS record but they are playing at home as underdogs and they spread looks a bit too easy for the road team. Don't forget this is somewhat of an early kickoff and it's really hard to go on the road and dominate. The Kentucky Wildcats are 3-0 but who in the world have they played against so far? Take a look at their schedule and you will see they beat Ball State, Eastern Kentucky and Akron. This should be the first time they face any kind of resistance in a game. The one big problem for Vanderbilt this season has been turnovers. They've shot themselves in the foot in almost every single game. It can't keep happening and I think the nasty trend stops today. Neither one of these teams has been good defensively on third downs and that's what is going to keep this game. Kentucky has the worst 3rd down defense in the SEC Conference after three weeks and that should allow the Vanderbilt offense to extend drives. Bet you didn't know Vanderbilt has 3 passing touchdowns in all of their games so this offense can move the ball.

Kentucky have always been in for tough games against Vanderbilt and this should be no different. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. I don't usually waste time or money betting on Vanderbilt and I made a nice penny taking Hawaii against them but the circumstances are different and I think they have a shot at winning this game. Road game, double digit fave, playing against a team they've struggled. Not a good recipe. Give me Kentucky.

Trend of the Game: Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in their last give games against Kentucky.


Vanderbilt 33, Kentucky 28

 

[MistaFlava]

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Michigan Wolverines -24 (10 Units)

He's back. Coach Jim Harbaugh is finally back on the sidelines and you better believe there is going to be some major motivation to win this game big. The Wolverines are 3-0 SU on the season and they come into this game as the #2 ranked team in the Country but they have not been winning games the way they should and I truly believe that has something to do with coaching. The Wolverines are 0-3 ATS so most bettors will gravitate to Rutgers with a 3+ touchdown spread in this game. Big mistake. All you need to know in this one is Rutgers passing game is not good. They can't win or even keep it close with the run game so they'll be forced to throw the ball and it's going to be a problem. Even running the ball Rutgers looked pretty pedestrian against Northwestern.

This game is in the Big House. It's that time of the year where the elite programs start playing like Elite programs and the recipe is perfect for a blowout win in Harbaugh's return to the sidelines. His replacements were good but they went through the basics and never really kept their foot on the gas. Harbaugh doesn't care. The Wolverines have won 15 straight against Big Ten Conference opponents and they will make it 16 today.

Trend of the Game: Michigan is 15-0 SU in their last 15 games versus Big Ten Conference opponents.


Michigan 56, Rutgers 10

 

[MistaFlava]

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Clemson Tigers +2 (10 Units)

I went over this game just about every single day of the past week. Two programs going in completely different directions with Florida State back to the top of the college football ranks while Clemson seems to be taking a nose dive into the abyss of college football. None of that matters when these two play each other. Early game on the road for Florida State. Not easy. Did you see Florida State last week at Boston College? Concerning to say the least. We saw Florida State looking good against LSU in the second half of that game but have they looked good since? I don't think. Clemson has talent on their roster they just have to use it and this could be the game. The Clemson offense has been the issue so far but their defense is still pretty elite and it should show in this really close game that come down to the final possession.

Florida State has lost 7 straight games against Clemson and have gone 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings. This feels like one of those games that if Florida State somehow wins they are going to do it by 1 point and the spread should be intact. Despite all their struggles, mainly because they refuse to use the transfer portal to upgrade, Clemson come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus ACC Conference opponents. Close game. I think the Tigers cover.

Trend of the Game: Clemson is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and have won 7 straight against FSU.


Clemson 20, Florida State 17

 

[tutow1951]

Thank you sir!!!!!!!!!

 

[MistaFlava]

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Western Michigan Broncos +21.5 (10 Units)

Way too many points. This one caught my eye in the early lines that were released and I was waiting for the line to sit right in this spot. I think this line was made on the simple fact that Western Michigan looked really awful against Syracuse and Iowa and got their asses handed to them in those games. Easy to look at non conference and think this MAC Conference Game will be the same but that's just not how it works. Toledo come into this game with some big wins over Texas Southern and San Jose State and they also went toe-to-toe with Illinois but Illinois is not every good. Western Michigan actually beat Toledo one year ago at home as a +10.5 point Home Underdog. Sure things are different on the road but the Broncos are not as bad as some of their losses show and this should be another close one.

You have to go back all the way to 2017 to find the last time Western Michigan went on the road to Toledo and lost by more than 21 points. In 2015 they lost by 5 points, in 2019 they lost by 7 points and in 2021 they lost by 19 points. Toledo comes into this game only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Home Games and only 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus MAC Conference opponents. Western Michigan might not win but they keep this one close. I call for the huge upset and at the very least a spread cover.

Trend of the Game: Toledo is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Home Games.


Western Michigan 37, Toledo 34

 

[MistaFlava]

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Ball State Cardinals +6 (10 Units)

Anyone who places a bet on Georgia Southern in this game is possibly falling into a trap of a bad line. Something is up here and my numbers have this line being about 7-8 points higher than what it is. I thought Georgia Southern played well at Wisconsin last week and in my mind they probably could have competed for the win had they not turned the ball over 6 times in that game. The problem is turnovers like that can really lead to confidence issues and when you turn the ball over that much it becomes contagious. Everyone is hating on Ball State but their two losses on the season were against Georgia and Kentucky but they are flying high right now coming off a huge 45-7 win over Indiana State. The offense hasn't looked good but again look who they've played against.

Georgia Southern is a disappointing team when it comes to spread betting. They are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games dating back to last season and Ball State has the ability to make this an ugly low scoring game that does not work in the favor of Georgia Southern. I think the teams go back and forth and neither offense is going to look that great and one of them is going to win on the last drive of the game. Close game, weird looking line, everyone with the road favorite. Recipe for the home dog.

Trend of the Game: Georgia Southern is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.


Ball State 21, Georgia Southern 20

 

[MistaFlava]

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Temple Owls +23 (10 Units)

This is about that time of the year where Miami has looked good since the start of the season and they have run over opponents looking like a prime ACC Conference contender but then they go and throw us all a curveball dud game. I think this is that game. What's the motivation here on the road against a weak opponent? I know Temple is coming off a huge win over an FCS opponent but I go back to their game against Rutgers a few weeks ago where on the scoresheet they got blown out. The game was so much closer than that had it not been for a 23 point fourth quarter allowed by the Owls defense. Yes you read that right. It was 13-7 for Rutgers heading into the fourth quarter before the wheels fell off. I think the Owls learned from that. They have a decent offense and they should be able to score in this one and keep it close.

Miami-Florida comes into this game with an abysmal 3-11 ATS record in their last 14 games dating back to last season. You can't trust them even if they've looked good so far. They are only 1-4 ATS in their last five Road Games and are playing against a Temple team that has covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 Home Games. Very dangerous game for Miami here and I think they'll struggle to pull away as Temple is a good home and much better than the final score in their blowout loss to Rutgers. Home dog for me again.

Trend of the Game: Temple is 7-2 ATS in their last nine Home Games.


Miami-Florida 31, Temple 24

 

[winning777]

vandy shot themselves in the foot. Clemson fg should’ve won it.
Always appreciate the picks and write ups. Get 'em next week.
any nfl tomorrow?