MistaFlava's CFB Week 8 ***PS2 POWER SIMULATIONS*** (30-6 ATS all sims NFL and CFB)

[MistaFlava]

PS2 Video Game Simulations

Here is the deal. My capping was not on par this season in CFB or NFL so I decided to use an old capping tool that actually works pretty damn well.

We had a poster a few weeks ago who brought up the idea of using EA Sports video games to simulate games. I don't know how many of you remember when I did this back in 2005 but I used to spend hours doing pretty much the same thing, fixing rosters to the dot, using accurate weather predictions and doing all you can do have a decent simulation.

The results were staggering. The PS2 simulations hit something like 13 in a row in College Football, 14 of 16 in NFL and the same success was found in NBA and College Basketball. I got a bit side tracked with some personal stuff right after that and never thought of doing it again.

***CONFESSION***: The last few weeks, the only weeks I have been winning, my capping has been based on PS2 Simulations and I have posted most of them as my picks. The Kentucky to cover over Alabama was all PS2 based. My 5-1 ATS week in the NFL Week 5 was all done by the PS2 and there is nothing wrong with that. Accept it.


Week 5

Washington +6.5 (Winner)
Tennessee -1 (Winner) *exact score*
Denver -3.5 (Loser by 0.5)
Arizona -1 (Winner)
Pittsburgh +5.5 (Winner)
Minnesota +3 (Winner)


Week 6

Chicago -3 (Loser)
Tampa Bay -1 (Winner)
Jacksonville +3.5 (Winner)
Arizona +4.5 (Winner)
New England +6 (Loser)
Cleveland +9 (Winner)


ALL RESULTS OF THE PS2 PREDICTIONS!!! Because of the losses I decided to go back and change some of the settings and sim some of the games over and over again until I got it right. The end results were the following:

Atlanta over Chicago
San Diego over New England (large)

Okay so some of you think it's stupid and some of you think this is the dumbest thing you have ever heard of. Okay cool. The bottom line is, a lot of time and effort is put into those video games and by simulating the games with exact settings and all variables, you can really get a good idea of which teams match up well with other teams.

Having seen that thread last weekend, I decided to simulate some games from earlier this season in college football (it took me 5+ hours to setup the rosters and get everything right). I picked the top 7 games from Week 6 of college football and some games from past weeks to see what kind of results the PS2 would generate.

Examples of simulations (these are games I ran this week)


Week 3

USC -11 over Ohio State = Winner


Week 6

FAU +2.5 = Winner
Boise State -11 = Winner
Pittsburgh +13.5 = Winner
Cincinnati -3 = Winner
Georgia Tech -13 = Winner
Penn State -14 = Winner
Kentucky +16.5 = Winner
Vanderbilt +4.5 = Winner
Ohio State -1 = Winner


Week 7 (posted picks in CFB Forum)

Troy -3.5 = Winner (I was on Florida Atlantic)
Wake Forest -2.5 = Winner
Louisville -6.5 = Winner
Oklahoma -7 = Loser (Modified with new settings picked TEXAS to win)
Northwestern +1 = Loser
Oklahoma State +14 = Winner
Florida -6.5 = Winner


Simulated Games: 15-2 ATS

Posted Games: 4-2 ATS

ALL SIMULATIONS: 30-6* ATS (see below)
​

*Most of these picks were simulated the last few weeks (posted and not posted). I know 6 losses out of 36 is not bad but those losses bothered me. I went back and changed more settings and spent hours trying to see what went wrong with the simulation and I came up with something good. The new settings had Texas over Oklahoma three times which is what I was looking for in the first place.

By now you get the point that all the games I simulated, after playing with all the settings and rosters for hours, turned out the results it did back in 2005, the last time I tried this experiment.

This is not misleading anyone because with time you will see how accurate and powerful these simulations are and I had never thought of bringing them back once and for all. I will select only the best 6-7 games

***CFB AND NFL WENT A COMBINED 9-4 ATS last week but the four losses have been corrected and the settings have been tweaked to project better results, better totals and more accurate spreads. I am not going to do much more tweaking of the system and let's just let this cash money cow ride for now.

You don't have to like what I'm doing but it works. Enjoy while it lasts, I will post the picks and simulation results in this thread for this week.

Do not get discouraged if the PS2 loses one or two games. Example of this being yesterday Oklahoma and NW lose but Florida and Oklahoma State bring home the bacon at night. I put tons of time and effort into this shit and in the end it wins, wins and wins some more.

-------------------------------------------


Alright so last week is gone and this week is here. I am done modifying the system and I am done playing around. We either win or we lose with what I have put together because this goes way beyond just setting weather, rosters, injury reports, time, penalties and so on. This is about setting gameplay and making sure each time has the right style of play in the simulation. Example: If you simulate a Florida game and Tim Tebow doesn't run the ball, that means the team is not setup properly and changes need to be made. Call me a dork but I spent tons of time modifying each teams tendencies.

Alright enough bullshit, at 30-6 ATS in both college and NFL I am willing to keep riding this money train and hopefully some of you followers have been able to cash in so far. TIME TO GET THE MONEY TRAIN ROLLING!



Thursday, October 16



North Carolina St +11
TCU -1.5




:toast:


The first game generated a final score of 24-17 (OT) Florida State. It was an exciting game that saw both teams have big time turnover problems. Neither QB looked all that good, neither team was able to establish a run game. It was a low-scoring game for the most part that featured one top notch defense in FSU and one horrendous offense in FSU (regardless of what they have done this season). I say you all expect turnovers here and a very tight game. NC State always plays the Noles close for some reason and this game should be no different.

The second game was interesting. It saw TCU win 44-15 over the Cougars as they played their best game of the season and screwed the betting public out of their money. Make no mistake about it this is the better of the two games tonight and this should have been the game on National TV. The Horned Frogs scored first and never looked back as they forced turnover after turnover, their defense was the best it was been in ages and BYU was knocked out of BCS talks with their first loss of the season. I don't know why everyone is fading TCU at home here, they have an advantage in several matcnups (according to the PS2) and I am riding this baby to the bank.

Disclaimer: I know I'm gonna take a ton of heat for this but I don't care. Right now it's a method of capping that's working for me, it's the reason my numbers are going to get better and in this world of sports betting you do whatever it takes to have an edge. Right? So don't hate, appreciate my postings.

Bash away and good following, fading or admiring.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Very interesting. What exactly do you do with the "new settings"? Do you keep tweaking the game until the correct team wins?

Good luck.

 

[AR_23]

44-15 would be quite the upset.

 

[Wingsfan]

You were right on with the Browns pick as everyone and their mother took the NYG!! Keep up the good work! F all the haters, I'm riding this train!!

 

[BetUrAse]

Love what you are doing, havent followed yet but very interesting. It gives everyone another faset to the game and I appreciate it. keep up the good work if its producing for you.

 

[billsfan]

Interesting stuff....Curious to see what it comes up with on the Bills-Chargers game

 

[2DIMES]

Maybe i should have bought my son that ps 2

 

[RiNo808]

AWESOME Flava, could you share your setting...and is it a more accurate outcome if you just let the computer play rather than supersim the game???

 

[DANDORO]

You said that the new settings are better because one or some of those lost games were won with this new pack of settings, but you didn't say anything about the won games from the past - they were winning too with the new settings applied?

 

[CrapGame]

awesome capping style

 

[MonsterBuck]

Love both, lets get them Mista! :toast:

 

[Boxslayer]

The whole entire human race is going down the tubes, and MistaFlava is leading the charge like a one-eyed, one-legged handicap with a cape on and a sword. Scratch that: Flava is leading the charge with a viking helmet and a clock around his neck - fist held high. "Follow me to freedom!" And they wonder why they call this "handicapping." Look at the people leading the charge.

The economy is in the midst of crashing, and people are desperately looking for something to invest their money in. The evidence is no more troubling then a bunch of people getting on the internet and finding comfort in some guy named "MistaFlava" posting simulations from a video game as real-world handicapping. After watching this last administration, I can't fault people for not trusting humans anymore with their money. Machines seem much safer.

Except, the guy leading the charge doesn't have a clue on how to make the machines think - much less how to think for himself.

Consider the following:

1. First of all, the guy - excuse me....KID - the kid is using a video game system. VIDEO GAME. If that doesn't stop you, and you still think this is a good investment of your money and you are going to get rich quick, then you need to keep reading. Most of you have already stopped reading.

2. The guy is using an OUTDATED last generation video game system - a PLAYSTATION 2. The artificial intelligence on this system is obsolete. I don't even want to get into the fact that this is a guy that has claimed for years that he wagers 10's of thousands of dollars, and he can't afford to upgrade to a $300 Playstation 3. But that's a discussion for another day.

3. The guy that is doing the settings for the game and putting his OPINION on how the settings should be set, and how the teams should be set is not some Las Vegas Linesmaker, but yes, a LIFETIME GAMBLING LOSER w/ a long documented history of not having a single clue on how to handicap a game. A guy who tucks his tail between his legs and reinvents himself and his POWER SYSTEMS every 3 weeks and always seems to have a new way of capping that will save the day. Once he strikes fire, all he will need is your credit card number and he will provide you with the losers. Because MistaClockAroundHisNeck doesnt understand basic statistic principles:

4. VARIANCE. This clown simulates a game one time. ONE TIME. One time in an effort to show exactly how a game will be played ONE time in real life. That is as random of a result as it gets and doesn't have the slighest bit of correlation to the way one random game will be played in the real world I don't care if the weather channel guy did the settings on your weather for each simulation. If a true simulation were to occur, and real results and data were to be gathered, this thing needs to be simulated many times. Data gathered - mean, median, mode - extreme results tossed out, etc - to show that a majority of the time what result should happen. I don't even want to get into specifics, but I will say that I am a Calc I, Calc II, Stats I, and Stats II grad in college. I know it SEEMS like you are doing a lot of work on this Flava, and I know it FEELS like this is working, but you might as well flip a fucking coin and go jerk off for the other 5 hours you spend doing these rosters, you will get more out of it.

5. SAMPLE SIZE - Nevermind the entire last paragraph I just wrote, let's assume you were simulating these things correctly - which you are not. If you think something like this is working because of 36 random results, go jump off a bridge - you will never make it in this world, especially this world of gambling. The record, the results are completely randomized, and there is no doubt the law of averages will take over and this 36-play random sample size will all even out at some point. I would say to any person following this madness to be happy to made a couple bucks and move on before it catches you. This "money train" is about to be an Amtrak crash like every other set of plays this guy posts.

6. SAMPLE SIZE FUDGED - If I am reading your horrible argument correctly, it looks like you have only posted a few of these things BEFORE kickoff. If I am reading this correctly, it looks like you went back and simulated a bunch of past games to test this thing out and just TOLD everyone that your simulations were winners and then you post your record as such? Is this accurate? You are posting your record as wins when the games weren't even posted? And just to make it look like you are policing yourself, you threw a loser or two in there?

If you want to gamble on sports, which is already a losing investment for 95%, try not to compound it by following such lunacy.

"Yeah, mom. I need a loan again. Where'd my money go? Well, MistaFlava was run....MistaFlava....Well that's his screen name......He's a guy on the internet......No I've never met him but he runs PS2 simulations on ga.....PS2 it's like a kids video game system.....Yeah......Yeah there is a PS3 out......I don't know why he doesn't use the PS3.....Anyway, he runs simulations on pro sports games and then he posts the results and then I gamble on them.....yeah......well no, but he does simulate the game one time....what is variance?.....he didn't mention anything about variance, but he's posted like 36 of these things and he's doing well........what do you mean sample size?.......look bottom line is he is on fire.......yeah.....no he's just a regular guy.......no he doesnt work in Vegas at all.......no......he's a handicapper on the internet, he hasnt done very well and so he came up with this thing and it is sort of his saving grace......well i havent seen him simulate anything....no.......well we just sort of take his word for it........yeah......well he has actually only posted like 12 of these things before the games but he said he went back and simulated a bunch more after the fact and he said they were all mostly winners......yeah.......i just do.......he's never really lied i see no reason not to beli.....well he did say he bets thousands of dollars on games so i guess it does seem kind of odd that he cant afford a $300 Playstation 3.......i dont know....look if you can just send the money this guy is on fire."

"Fools and their money will soon be parted."

 

[Bjizzle06]

30-6 Boxslayer. You can type all of the argument you want, but you can't change the fact that this strategy has gone 30-6.

 

[SoonerBS]

The whole entire human race is going down the tubes, and MistaFlava is leading the charge like a one-eyed, one-legged handicap with a cape on and a sword. Scratch that: Flava is leading the charge with a viking helmet and a clock around his neck - fist held high. "Follow me to freedom!" And they wonder why they call this "handicapping." Look at the people leading the charge.

The economy is in the midst of crashing, and people are desperately looking for something to invest their money in. The evidence is no more troubling then a bunch of people getting on the internet and finding comfort in some guy named "MistaFlava" posting simulations from a video game as real-world handicapping. After watching this last administration, I can't fault people for not trusting humans anymore with their money. Machines seem much safer.

Except, the guy leading the charge doesn't have a clue on how to make the machines think - much less how to think for himself.

Consider the following:

1. First of all, the guy - excuse me....KID - the kid is using a video game system. VIDEO GAME. If that doesn't stop you, and you still think this is a good investment of your money and you are going to get rich quick, then you need to keep reading. Most of you have already stopped reading.

2. The guy is using an OUTDATED last generation video game system - a PLAYSTATION 2. The artificial intelligence on this system is obsolete. I don't even want to get into the fact that this is a guy that has claimed for years that he wagers 10's of thousands of dollars, and he can't afford to upgrade to a $300 Playstation 3. But that's a discussion for another day.

3. The guy that is doing the settings for the game and putting his OPINION on how the settings should be set, and how the teams should be set is not some Las Vegas Linesmaker, but yes, a LIFETIME GAMBLING LOSER w/ a long documented history of not having a single clue on how to handicap a game. A guy who tucks his tail between his legs and reinvents himself and his POWER SYSTEMS every 3 weeks and always seems to have a new way of capping that will save the day. Once he strikes fire, all he will need is your credit card number and he will provide you with the losers. Because MistaClockAroundHisNeck doesnt understand basic statistic principles:

4. VARIANCE. This clown simulates a game one time. ONE TIME. One time in an effort to show exactly how a game will be played ONE time in real life. That is as random of a result as it gets and doesn't have the slighest bit of correlation to the way one random game will be played in the real world I don't care if the weather channel guy did the settings on your weather for each simulation. If a true simulation were to occur, and real results and data were to be gathered, this thing needs to be simulated many times. Data gathered - mean, median, mode - extreme results tossed out, etc - to show that a majority of the time what result should happen. I don't even want to get into specifics, but I will say that I am a Calc I, Calc II, Stats I, and Stats II grad in college. I know it SEEMS like you are doing a lot of work on this Flava, and I know it FEELS like this is working, but you might as well flip a fucking coin and go jerk off for the other 5 hours you spend doing these rosters, you will get more out of it.

5. SAMPLE SIZE - Nevermind the entire last paragraph I just wrote, let's assume you were simulating these things correctly - which you are not. If you think something like this is working because of 36 random results, go jump off a bridge - you will never make it in this world, especially this world of gambling. The record, the results are completely randomized, and there is no doubt the law of averages will take over and this 36-play random sample size will all even out at some point. I would say to any person following this madness to be happy to made a couple bucks and move on before it catches you. This "money train" is about to be an Amtrak crash like every other set of plays this guy posts.

6. SAMPLE SIZE FUDGED - If I am reading your horrible argument correctly, it looks like you have only posted a few of these things BEFORE kickoff. If I am reading this correctly, it looks like you went back and simulated a bunch of past games to test this thing out and just TOLD everyone that your simulations were winners and then you post your record as such? Is this accurate? You are posting your record as wins when the games weren't even posted? And just to make it look like you are policing yourself, you threw a loser or two in there?

If you want to gamble on sports, which is already a losing investment for 95%, try not to compound it by following such lunacy.

"Yeah, mom. I need a loan again. Where'd my money go? Well, MistaFlava was run....MistaFlava....Well that's his screen name......He's a guy on the internet......No I've never met him but he runs PS2 simulations on ga.....PS2 it's like a kids video game system.....Yeah......Yeah there is a PS3 out......I don't know why he doesn't use the PS3.....Anyway, he runs simulations on pro sports games and then he posts the results and then I gamble on them.....yeah......well no, but he does simulate the game one time....what is variance?.....he didn't mention anything about variance, but he's posted like 36 of these things and he's doing well........what do you mean sample size?.......look bottom line is he is on fire.......yeah.....no he's just a regular guy.......no he doesnt work in Vegas at all.......no......he's a handicapper on the internet, he hasnt done very well and so he came up with this thing and it is sort of his saving grace......well i havent seen him simulate anything....no.......well we just sort of take his word for it........yeah......well he has actually only posted like 12 of these things before the games but he said he went back and simulated a bunch more after the fact and he said they were all mostly winners......yeah.......i just do.......he's never really lied i see no reason not to beli.....well he did say he bets thousands of dollars on games so i guess it does seem kind of odd that he cant afford a $300 Playstation 3.......i dont know....look if you can just send the money this guy is on fire."

"Fools and their money will soon be parted."

 

[SaltyVeteran]

30-6 Boxslayer. You can type all of the argument you want, but you can't change the fact that this strategy has gone 30-6.

As Boxslayer pointed out, It's not 30-6 posted. He went back and simulated games after they WERE OVER. Pretty weak. Run the game after it already ended and then when it covers you go, "yep, it worked again"

But, whatever, if people want to follow this nonsense, go ahead. It's your money.

 

[mj23mg]

dont care how you do it. Just Win Baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[ICC]

TOP 5 "PLEASE LOOK IN MY THREAD BECAUSE ONCE UPON A TIME I WAS A DECENT CAPPER BUT I HAVE RUINED THAT REPUTATION BY CONSTANTLY BETTING 100 UNIT PLAYS IN WHICH I LOSE, SO NOW I HAVE CREATED A STUPID SYSTEM TO TRY AND GARNAR SOME ATTENTION NO MATTER HOW SHAMELESS MY PATHETIC ATTEMPT IS" Systems

1) PS2 Simulations
2) These are my wifes picks
3) My daugther likes these helmets
4) Secret Formula
5) Conference EXPERTS

 

[Jetplane]

I am a conference expert!!! jk.

Actually... Go Sooners and SoonerBS are pretty good, just my opinion.

 

[Boxslayer]

30-6 Boxslayer. You can type all of the argument you want, but you can't change the fact that this strategy has gone 30-6.

Two questions:

1. Have all 36 plays been posted before the game? (Serious question)
2. Do you honestly think 36 plays is a good sample size to determine if something like this works? (Rhetorical)

Nevermind the fact the that you cannot throw out statistical laws. There is NO ARGUING THE FACT that the system has worked by mere CHANCE and not because it is being executed correctly. The system is essentially a coinflip, the simulations are ran once, and there is nothing stopping it from going 6-30 over the next 36 plays. You can not fight the math/stats behind this that are not being executed at their fundamental levels.

Talk to me when this system is 300-60, and then we can talk about a better sample size. It can win the next 20 plays straight and that would be merely by chance. However, you will see before that time comes that this system is flawed to the core.

Nevermind the fact that the system, even if executed properly, is being rigged by a guy who may be one of the worst wannabe handicappers to ever come through therx.com and wouldn't know what a football was if it took a dump on his lap. If people actually READ his writeups and analyzed what he says in them, instead of reading his writeups as if they were written by Vince Lombardi, you would have already seen that this guy was going to lose at every play he bet before he made the play. His football handicapping is flawed to the core, and there is no reason to believe that his simulations and setups are flawed to the core.

You are yet another sheep who will soon be losing his money because you don't understand how poor of an investment you are making by trailing this garbage. You will see soon enough, that I was actually doing guys like you a favor when I wrote my initial post.

I am not coming on here and trashing a system and piling on when it is losing. I am coming on here and taking a stand and helping fellow bettors at the PEAK of it's success, not 2nd guessing or playing Monday Morning QB. People can get easily sucked into crap like this and they need to know it is a huge mistake to get involved with this.

Happy trails.

 

[ICC]

There is a reason that Flava has bounced around to more gambling forums that a serority skeez has guys. He is a total fraud. I remember him pulling this garbage at about 5 other sites. Its not hard to find, google his name. The guy has been to about 37 forums and never stuck because he gets on a couple decent runs and his urge to be a tout is soooooo strong that he tries to take a couple chances with large plays that eventually lose. I dont have anything about the guy personally, but his act is tired and the sheep that follow this off the cliff might as well die.