MistaFlava's CFB Week 7 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2020 College Football Record: 17-23-2 (-101.70 Units)

MistaFlava's 2020 College Football ATS Record: 14-13-2 ATS (-3.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 College Football O/U Record: 2-8 (-68.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 College Football 2nd Half Plays: 1-1 ATS (-3.20 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 College Football *Big Plays*: 0-1 ATS (-27.50 Units)

Alright by far my worst start to a season as a handicapper so I'm switching things up a bit. Clearly the totals are an issue so they are done for the season and I will likely only be posting spreads/sides the rest of the way.

1 Units = $1000

Hope the entire RX Forum community is doing well and staying safe and let's make a bit of cash!

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Thursday, October 14



Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns -9 (10 Units)

The entire world is on Coastal Carolina because they are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the season but I'm not buying this spot at all. The Chanticleers have allowed 21+ points in every single game they've played this season and I don't know that their offense can keep up tonight. On paper they have been more effective than the Cajuns on the offensive side of things and they average 441 total yards on 6.9 yards per play their last three games but this ULL defense is good and they've allowed only 21 points per game their last three games and allowed only 389.7 total yards per game and an impressive 5.1 yards per play. The Chanticleers are a run first offense (average 43 runs to 21 pass attempts last three games) but the Cajuns are used to that and have been run on 45.7 times per game their last three games and allowed only 4.2 yards per carry. Their secondary has been tremendous and has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 53.3% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt while forcing a grand total of 6 turnovers (3 interceptions and 3 touchdowns). I know they don't pass much but Coastal Carolina averages 11.3 yards per pass attempt their last three games so losing the ability to make big plays in the air will be a huge problem for an offense playing from behind.

The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns continue to be ranked and they will finally get the opportunity to showcase their skills on National TV with this game being on ESPN tonight. The only time this team covered the spread this season was as an underdog in their season opening win at Iowa State but looking back now how good was that win? Not hard to see why they didn't get up and do much against Georgia Southern (20-18 win as -11.5 fave) and Georgia State (34-31 OT win as -17 point fave) but now they face a 3-0 team that everyone is hyped up about. The Cajuns offense has slowed down a bit this season because of injuries and they really don't have any experienced receivers on their side but QB Levi Lewis is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt with a QB Rating of 133.3 this season. The only issue has been interceptions and Coastal Carolina's defense has 4 in their last three games so we all know ULL will try to slow this game down and run the ball behind RB Elijah Mitchell. As a team they average 5.1 yards per carry this season and have the ability to really control the tempo of this game regardless of how good the Coastal Carolina defense has been.

Anyone else notice that most tickets in Vegas are on Coastal Carolina yet the line continues to move in the direction of ULL. That doesn't happen for no reason and something is going on because ULL have a ton of injuries. I think this game will be more about the defenses and I don't really see a blowout by the Cajuns but I do see them controlling the tempo of the game and being effective when they need to be. Coastal Carolina is only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record on the season and I think they are in for a wakeup call tonight. Despite being a tremendous road underdog for the last two seasons, ULL has been an October team for a while now and are 5-1 ATS in their last six October games. I'm going with the Ragin Cajuns to make an impression on National television and flex a bit of muscle on defense with some players who have a shot at the NFL.

Trend of the Game: Coastal Carolina is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record.


Louisiana-Lafayette 35, Coastal Carolina 18






more to come...

 

[GreedisGood]

Flava If everyone is on CC why did the line go up ?

 

[Inittowinit]

Flava If everyone is on CC why did the line go up ?

Line movement isnt always on where money is. Sometimes its injuries. Sometimes its sharp bets (non majority of betters, rather a large bet). Sometimes, believe it or not, its oddsmakers making it look like its money when its line movement where its not a football number (i.e. moving from 8.5 to 9)

 

[GreedisGood]

When I see a line movement like the over /Under I always follow the over and I think it Cc kind of game
but thank you for your reply — just like to hear others thoughts

 

[Biz]

Flava If everyone is on CC why did the line go up ?

More bets on CC, more money on ULL.

 

[MistaFlava]

Only one way to recover and that's go again. Will have a wager on tonight's game. Looking forward to hearing opinions from others as well.

 

[MistaFlava]

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Thursday, October 15



Georgia State Panthers +3.5 (10 Units)

The Georgia State Panthers are running (literally) on familiar grounds in this game tonight as they come as a +3.5 point road underdog. They've been underdogs in both their games already this season and are 2-0 ATS with a huge win over East Carolina back on October 3 and with their overtime loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a +17 point underdog in their opener. The keys tonight? 1) Keep the explosive Arkansas State offense off the field by running the ball and controlling the clock and 2) running the ball down the Red Wolves throats. Georgia State averages 235 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry but so don't be discouraged if they don't get big gains early. The passing game with QB Cornelious Brown has been good but he has thrown 3 interceptions and it would be recommended to stay away from some of these Arkansas State DB's. Having said that the more the Panthers run the more they'll get to take shots downfield against a Red Wolves secondary allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games on 304.5 passing yards per game. Opposing QB's in those games have an average QB Rating of 155.6 and that's not good.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves showed they belong when they opened the season with an impressive spread covering loss at Memphis where they went toe-to-toe with the Tigers. They've continued that strong play in their last three games with a straight up win at Kansas State and a beatdown of Central Arkansas last weekend but they did lose to Coastal Carolina and it got ugly. CC is another team that can run. I talked about the Arkansas State offense and how good they have been averaging 467.8 total yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in their last three games but Georgia State's defense is the real deal. Opposing teams are converting 3rd down chances at a clip of only 26% against this defense this year and in their two wins they have 6 sacks, 5 interceptions and have allowed opposing quarterbacks to average a QB Rating of only 100.0 in those two games. Their weakness is in the run defense but Arkansas State run only 31 times per game (compared to 41 throws per game) in their last three games and average only 4.0 yards per carry. In the air the Red Wolves will run into a secondary allowing opponents to complete only 56.2% of their passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt and this defense makes you work for every single yard. Arkansas State loves to move fast and gain big chunk yardage and will get frustrated when they can't do that in this game.

Another small conference game on ESPN and another underdog cover? Dating all the way back to last Friday night, the UNDERDOGS in both College Football and the NFL are on a run of 5-0 ATS (Georgia Tech, Minnesota Vikings, LA Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Coastal Carolina) and I think that run continues tonight for the dogs. The struggle for Georgia State has always been road games (2-10-2 ATS in their last 14) and I don't really trust them away from home but when they are on a roll they are on a roll and they are a streaky team. Arkansas State is only 1-4 ATS in their five games played in October and although I think this will be a great game I have to keep pounding the underdogs and the streak they are on (which will end tomorrow night). GSU covered the spread two of their last three times here. Who's with me or against me?

Trend of the Game: Georgia State is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 October games.


Georgia State 34, Arkansas State 29






more to come...

 

[GreedisGood]

Good Luck you the best Flava

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava......BOL with your action tonight buddy......on this with you.........indy

 

[Incubus]

I keep telling all of my internet sports gambling friends that they need to check out MistaFlava's CFB threads before placing their bets! Keep up the great work! I look forward to seeing what's coming up next. Good luck!

 

[Lotterymoney]

Rough start kill it this weekend

 

[MistaFlava]

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Friday, October 16



Houston Cougars +3.5 (25 Units) ***WEEKDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The battle of the "Cougars" goes tonight and I have to say up until last week I was super impressed with BYU and the way they played but their 27-20 win over UTSA at home left me with a bit of a sour taste and I feel something is off a bit. The Cougs still have a prolific offense that averages 549.7 total yards of offense and 7.8 yards per play over their last three games but Houston's defense was absolutely unreal against Tulane in their opener. This is a rested defense that allowed 31 points but that allowed only 211 total yards of offense on 3.0 yards per play. Impressive. They pass rush was fantastic with 6 sacks of Tulane's QB and despite being runon 45 times in that game Houston's D-Line allowed only 70 rushing yards and 1.6 yards per carry. That's a big problem for this BYU offense that runs the ball 40.7 times per game in their last three games for 186.7 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. It's a huge part of their game. In the air QB Zack Wilson has been great but the mistakes are bound to come. The Cougars secondary only 11 of 25 passes to be completed last week for 5.6 yards per pass attempt and Tulane managed to convert only 25% of their third down chances.

The Houston Cougars know they need a really good game on both sides of the ball to win this and I think they have it in them. They are the fresher team, they are the healthier team and they are anxious to get their hands (Claws) on a TOP 25 opponent at home and on National Television. We saw what the Cougars offense can do in their big win over Tulane last week where they scored 49 points on 476 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. The running game wasn't that great as they managed only 3.7 yards per carry on a whopping 43 runs in the game and BYU's defensive front is very good and allows only 2.2 yards per carry in their last three games but Houston has options. The passing game is just as good if not better than BYU's as they averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt in their opener and QB Clay Tune would have been near perfect if it wasn't for the 2 interceptions he threw to go along with his 2 touchdown passes. Nonetheless he completed 22 of 30 passes for 300+ yards and goes up against a BYU secondary allowing their last three opponents to complete 65.7% of their passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. WR Marquez Stevenson is a superstar and he loves showing off on National TV. I like Houston.

Alright so I'm on a serious cold streak and going against 70% or so of the betting public is probably not the way to go but I like this play a lot and I think Houston comes out and shocks the college football world with their first win over BYU in three tries. Think about it. Unbeaten and unranked and playing at home versus ranked opponent. It's the perfect recipe. BYU is only 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after throwing the ball for 280+ yards in their previous game and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite. FADE! Houston on the other hand as an underdog is 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games played under the Friday Night Lights. Dana Holgersen lives for the moments and I am going big on Houston to win and cover.

Trend of the Game: Houston is 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog.


Houston 34, Brigham Young 21





more to come...

 

[Sincityman6]

Bol this weekend Flava will be tailing you

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.........BOL with your Fri. night play buddy.....on them with you...........indy

 

[MistaFlava]

Cannot buy a win. What a brutal second half. Disgusted. Might take a break and be back next week ����*

good luck to everyone tomorrow, will be tailing some of the posters on here.

 

[Biz]

Had Houston and the Under. What a ridiculous final 20 minutes. It happens

 

[MistaFlava]

Woke up, had a coffee with a view, feel a bit different this morning and feel like there is money to be made(back) in this slate. Won't break the bank but hoping for a monster day.


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Saturday, October 17



Auburn Tigers -2.5 (10 Units)

The Auburn Tigers come into enemy territory ready for a fight and coming off a game they almost lost as a double digit favorite. Bet this one at bet365 who are offering the -2.5 at regular price and hoping the 1-2 ATS Tigers can make a statement today. QB Bo Nix has struggled completing only 56.8% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 121.4 but he has thrown 4 Touchdown Passes to only 1 interception and has rushed for 1 touchdown as well (he was good for 7 last season). Running against South Carolina is real tough (96.3 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry) but the Tigers can grind the Gamecocks down on the ground and then let Nix unload on a secondary that has been torched for 234 passing yards per game on 8.0 yards per pass attempt and who's opponents have completed 67% of their passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt and an average QB Rating of 152.0 on the season.

The South Carolina Gamecocks finally got a win last week but it was against Vanderbilt and I'm not sure how much stock we can all really put into that. They competed against both Tennessee and Florida and offensively have been just as good if not better and more effective than Auburn's offense but they rely a lot more on the run than Auburn does and that could be a problem in a game with two good run defenses. Auburn allows only 3.7 yards per carry this season. Their secondary has also been torched in their three games but where this game will be won and lost for me is the offensive line of South Carolina. They've allowed 10 sacks in three games this season and Auburn has a decent pass rush (6 sacks). South Carolina has also turned the ball over 4 times in three games compared to Auburn turning it over only once in three games. I think SC can score some points but Auburn's defense will get to the QB enough times to win.

Auburn has never lost to South Carolina and I don't see them starting today. The Tigers have won all five lifetime meetings (5-0 SU) by at least 3 points and are officially 3-2 ATS in those games. I like it despite the last meeting being in 2014. Auburn is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite. South Carolina is only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games as an underdog and only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Not too many will be on Auburn in this one but I like the Tigers to win in the trenches and cover this game late with some big stops on defense.

Trend of the Game: Auburn has covered 11 of their last 15 as a Favorite.


Auburn 29, South Carolina 17





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Texas State Bobcats +3.5 (10 Units)

The Texas State Bobcats are quite possibly the best 1-4 team in the Country right now and they are also quite possibly the only 1-4 team in the Country but at the same time they are 3-2 ATS and have been competitive to say the least. The offense for Texas State has really struggled since their opener against SMU but it's more an issue of consistency. In their last three games the Bobcats 25.3 points per game on 336.3 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play but today they get to go up against a South Alabama defense allowing 30 points per game this season and allowing 438.3 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play. Texas State is a run first offense and that could be great because South Alabama allows 163.7 rushing yards per game this season but once they get to passing (their two QB's have combined for 11 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions) they'll do it against a secondary that is allowing 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Big day from the Bobcats passing attack.

The South Alabama Jaguars are 1-2 on the season but they are 2-1 ATS on the spread and did find a way to beat Southern Miss and keep it close against Tulane but if we're being honest this game is a bit different. This is a new rivalry of sorts and their games have been solid in the past. The offense for South Bama has been great and they are averaging 411.3 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play but...it has led to only 22 points per game in three games. Now they face a Texas State defense that has allowed only 5.5 yards per play in their last three games and who have been really tough to run on allowing only 101.3 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games. South Alabama have turned the ball over 5 times already in three games and will take advantage. The Bobcats defense has allowed their last three opponents to convert only 37.2% of their 3rd down chances and score TD's only 66.7% of the time in the Red Zone.

These two programs have played each other 5 times now since the 2013 season started and Texas State is 3-1-1 ATS in those games including a two point win as a seven point favorite in 2019 so if there is one team they know they can beat it's South Bama. Texas State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road. The UNDERDOG in this series is 4-0-1 ATS lifetime and with a team desperate for a win the way the Bobcats are desperate I think they can win this straight up. South Alabama has covered the spread in only 5 of their last 22 games as a favorite and it's been a while since they played. UPSET TIME!

Trend of the Game: South Alabama have covered only 5 of their last 22 games as a favorite.


Texas State 33, South Alabama 24





more to come...

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava........just a bump in the road buddy.......look forward to your thought's today....

here's to a solid and profitable day........indy

 

[MistaFlava]

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Pittsburgh Panthers +13 (10 Units)

The Pitt Panthers know what they are in for in this game and they know they are coming into this place playing against a motivated Miami team but should the Hurricanes not be worried the same about Pitt who are coming off an overtime upset loss to Boston College as a -6.5 point favorite? I love the Panthers as an underdog for the first time season and I think they will have success against a Miami defense that exposed their weaknesses last week against Clemson. The Canes D has been run into the ground their last three games allowing 206 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry in those games. That's great news for a Panthers team desperate to get their run game going. If you're going to beat the Canes you better have pass protection because they have 10 sacks in their last three games but Pitt has allowed only 4 sacks in their last three and they've limited turnovers to only 3 in those games. Two big pluses for an offense that will need to score and avoid big mistakes.

How will the Miami Hurricanes respond to the sort of beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Clemson Tigers last week? It will be interesting for sure and now they get to play against an opponent that has the ability to control the clock by running the ball effectively and an opponent that has allowed only 336.3 total yards of offense per game and only 5.0 yards per play in their last three games. The Panthers have a whopping 15 sacks, 3 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery in their last three games and their opponents have converted on third downs only 35.6% of the time in those games. Miami is tremendous on the ground averaging 4.9 yards per carry their last three games but this Panthers D Line has held their last three opponents to 69.3 rushing yards and 2.1 yards per carry. That makes the Canes one dimensional and for a team that takes 11.3 penalties per for 101.3 penalty yards per game in their last three games, that's a massive problem. Pitt's defense is super tough and will show it today.

This is a bounce back game for both of these programs. Miami has one of the best offenses in the ACC Conference while Pitt have one of the best defenses in the Country so this game will naturally be won in the Pitt offense versus Miami defense battle. The Panthers have not looked good for the most part this season but they are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a winning record at home and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games so this is what they needed. Miami is only 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games played in October and the ROAD TEAM in this series is an impressive 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings. Miami won a close one at Pitt last year and I'm calling for Pitt to pull off the upset in return this season. Close game for sure, defenses should feature.

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.


Pittsburgh 20, Miami-Florida 17






more to come...