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Ohio State Buckeyes -19 (10 Units)
The majority are going to be on Michigan State and sharps will probably be on Michigan State in this one but how quickly the college football world forgets that the Spartans scored only 7 points at home against Arizona State and lost that game straight up. I know they will get some respect here because they went to Northwestern a few weeks ago and won by 21 and then beat Indiana at home last week but how in the world does anyone see them keeping up with the Bucks here? Also throwing things back a few years and the last time Michigan State was here and...they got blown out of the water in a 48-3 loss. Could be a bit different this time around because the Spartans return 17 starters from one season ago when they lost by 20 at home to these Buckeyes. My issue is the offense and what we saw against Arizona State. The Spartans are averaging 26 points per game in their last three games and have done that on 396.3 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Having said that this is not Indiana or Northwestern or Arizona State. Ohio State is allowing 7.3 points per game in their last three games on 206.7 total yards of offense and 3.4 yards per play in those games. There is nothing about this MSU offense that scares them or worries them. The running game for MSU has been pedestrian at best averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and 123.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games. Ohio State is allowing only 2.7 yards per carry in their last three games so it's air attack or bust for the Spartans. QB Brian Lewerke has completed only 59.8% of his passes this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 10 Touchdown Passes, 1 Interception and a QB Rating of 141.6. Not bad at all for the Senior. Well this is a bit different. Lewerke has not seen pressure like this all season as Ohio State has 14 sacks in their last three games, they have 5 interceptions in those games, they have recovered 2 fumbles in those games and their secondary has allowed opponents to complete only 49.3% of their passes for 4.4 yards per pass attempt. The last three QBs they faced have an average QB Rating of 77.2 which is incredible. Lewerke will not only struggle in this game but he will throw his first interception(s) in over three games. Mark my words on that.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have been bumped up to #4 in the Country but don't think for one second they are satisfied. Having jumped 2 spots based on win margin against Nebraska the Buckeyes will come into this game looking for another massive win so they can possibly move into the TOP 2 spots if someone falters the way Clemson did last week. Ohio State is an incredible 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season which makes it shocking that not more people are on them. The public and a lot of sharps think Sparty can keep this close enough to cover the number. I don't see it. Listen to this if you want to see or hear about a great offense. In their last three games the Buckeyes are averaging 58.3 points per game and in those games are averaging 568 total yards of offense and a crazy 7.9 yards per play in those games. Sparty has a good defense, that's not a secret and they allow only 17 points per game in their last three on 280 total yards of offense and only 4.2 yards per play but sometimes when you're a team like Ohio with a prolific offense to go along with a stout defense, your defense creates even more offense via turnovers. On the ground the Buckeyes are averaging 301.3 rushing yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry the last three games and this is not something MSU and their 3.0 yards per carry allowed their last three games have seen all season. In the game last year at Michigan State, Ohio State rushed for only 127 yards and 2.7 yards per carry and still won by 20. They don't need to run for more than that when they are passing for 266.7 yards per game in their last three games on 10.0 yards per pass attempt. Wow! QB Justin Fields is the front runner for the Heisman Trophy right now and has completed 67.5% of his passes in those last three games while throwing no interceptions. That's huge because the Spartans are allowing their last three opponents to complete 63.8% of their passes and that's just too much against this kind of offense. Ohio State is one of the most disciplined teams in the Country and in their last three games they have taken only 4.3 penalties per game. That's what kind of program Ryan Day is running here.
I keep saying it every week, Ohio State will probably start slow in this game and figure things out as they go. Well I've been wrong almost every single time and this is not exception. Looking back at their last three games the Buckeyes are averaging a crazy 39.0 points per 1st Half of the Game. OH MY GOD! Michigan State got a big win last week but they are a pure letdown team and have gone 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up win. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five Big Ten Conference games and only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Ohio State 7-0 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they will be looking to avoid the issues that plagued them in October of 2018 (0-4 ATS during that month). The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Big Ten Conference games and they are 7-0 ATS coming off a game where they scored 40+ points in the previous game. There is no such thing as a letdown game in Columbus. Bucks win big.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games coming off a win of 40+ points.
Ohio State 35, Michigan State 7
more to come...
Ohio State Buckeyes -19 (10 Units)
The majority are going to be on Michigan State and sharps will probably be on Michigan State in this one but how quickly the college football world forgets that the Spartans scored only 7 points at home against Arizona State and lost that game straight up. I know they will get some respect here because they went to Northwestern a few weeks ago and won by 21 and then beat Indiana at home last week but how in the world does anyone see them keeping up with the Bucks here? Also throwing things back a few years and the last time Michigan State was here and...they got blown out of the water in a 48-3 loss. Could be a bit different this time around because the Spartans return 17 starters from one season ago when they lost by 20 at home to these Buckeyes. My issue is the offense and what we saw against Arizona State. The Spartans are averaging 26 points per game in their last three games and have done that on 396.3 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Having said that this is not Indiana or Northwestern or Arizona State. Ohio State is allowing 7.3 points per game in their last three games on 206.7 total yards of offense and 3.4 yards per play in those games. There is nothing about this MSU offense that scares them or worries them. The running game for MSU has been pedestrian at best averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and 123.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games. Ohio State is allowing only 2.7 yards per carry in their last three games so it's air attack or bust for the Spartans. QB Brian Lewerke has completed only 59.8% of his passes this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 10 Touchdown Passes, 1 Interception and a QB Rating of 141.6. Not bad at all for the Senior. Well this is a bit different. Lewerke has not seen pressure like this all season as Ohio State has 14 sacks in their last three games, they have 5 interceptions in those games, they have recovered 2 fumbles in those games and their secondary has allowed opponents to complete only 49.3% of their passes for 4.4 yards per pass attempt. The last three QBs they faced have an average QB Rating of 77.2 which is incredible. Lewerke will not only struggle in this game but he will throw his first interception(s) in over three games. Mark my words on that.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have been bumped up to #4 in the Country but don't think for one second they are satisfied. Having jumped 2 spots based on win margin against Nebraska the Buckeyes will come into this game looking for another massive win so they can possibly move into the TOP 2 spots if someone falters the way Clemson did last week. Ohio State is an incredible 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season which makes it shocking that not more people are on them. The public and a lot of sharps think Sparty can keep this close enough to cover the number. I don't see it. Listen to this if you want to see or hear about a great offense. In their last three games the Buckeyes are averaging 58.3 points per game and in those games are averaging 568 total yards of offense and a crazy 7.9 yards per play in those games. Sparty has a good defense, that's not a secret and they allow only 17 points per game in their last three on 280 total yards of offense and only 4.2 yards per play but sometimes when you're a team like Ohio with a prolific offense to go along with a stout defense, your defense creates even more offense via turnovers. On the ground the Buckeyes are averaging 301.3 rushing yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry the last three games and this is not something MSU and their 3.0 yards per carry allowed their last three games have seen all season. In the game last year at Michigan State, Ohio State rushed for only 127 yards and 2.7 yards per carry and still won by 20. They don't need to run for more than that when they are passing for 266.7 yards per game in their last three games on 10.0 yards per pass attempt. Wow! QB Justin Fields is the front runner for the Heisman Trophy right now and has completed 67.5% of his passes in those last three games while throwing no interceptions. That's huge because the Spartans are allowing their last three opponents to complete 63.8% of their passes and that's just too much against this kind of offense. Ohio State is one of the most disciplined teams in the Country and in their last three games they have taken only 4.3 penalties per game. That's what kind of program Ryan Day is running here.
I keep saying it every week, Ohio State will probably start slow in this game and figure things out as they go. Well I've been wrong almost every single time and this is not exception. Looking back at their last three games the Buckeyes are averaging a crazy 39.0 points per 1st Half of the Game. OH MY GOD! Michigan State got a big win last week but they are a pure letdown team and have gone 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up win. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five Big Ten Conference games and only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Ohio State 7-0 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they will be looking to avoid the issues that plagued them in October of 2018 (0-4 ATS during that month). The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Big Ten Conference games and they are 7-0 ATS coming off a game where they scored 40+ points in the previous game. There is no such thing as a letdown game in Columbus. Bucks win big.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games coming off a win of 40+ points.
Ohio State 35, Michigan State 7
more to come...
