Mistaflava's CFB Week 6 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

2019 Mistaflava CFB Record: 43-34-2 ATS (+54.50 Units)

2019 Mistaflava CFB *Big Plays*: 1-1 ATS (-2.50 Units)


Made some bad decisions last week but this is around the time of the season where a lot of my systems kick in and the capping starts improving. Went 10-1 ATS in NFL last week so looking forward to bringing that over to some college football in Week 56.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK!

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Thursday, October 3




Georgia Southern Eagles -10 (10 Units)

It's probably hard for most to understand how a team that went 10-3 SU in 2018 and beat Eastern Michigan in the Camellia Bowl is off to a 1-3 SU start to their season (also went 1-3 ATS in those games) but with games against LSU, Maine, Minnesota and Louisiana-Lafayette, it's actually not that hard to see. Consider this however, we just saw how Minnesota demolished Purdue last weekend and we all know that LSU has National Championship aspirations so you have to cut these guys a break. Even in their game against Louisiana last week they were pretty badly outmatched but a trip to Mobile is exactly what the Eagles needed to kick start their 2019 season. Georgia Southern is 5-0 SU lifetime versus South Alabama and have outscored them 207-45 which is an average margin of victory of 32.4 (thank you Phil Steele Magazine). You can expect the Eagles to run, run and run the ball some more tonight as they average 45 carries per game and average 201.8 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. RB Wesley Kennedy is back from suspension tonight and he averaged 7.9 yards per carry and had 3 rushing touchdowns as the #4 running back on this team. South Alabama has the #99 ranked run defense in the Nation and they have allowed 179.4 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per game. The Eagles should have their way in this one everytime they have the ball. I don't trust the Eagles passing game because they average only 49 passing yards per game and attempt only 10.3 throws per game but if they want to run a few trick plays or put the ball in the air the South Alabama defense has allowed 9.1 yards per pass attempt this season. Fumbles has been a bit of an issue (5 lost) for the Eagles but South Alabama have recovered only 4 fumbles in their five games so far and I don't see them creating much in terms of turnovers. Last year the Eagles destroyed South Alabama 48-13 at home. This year they have an even better team but the odds are skewed because of their 1-3 starts. Eagles win big in this one.

The South Alabama Jaguars are plain and simply not a good football team and to the shock of absolutely nobody they are off to a 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) start to the 2019 season. Make no mistake about it the 2019 version of the team is a lot better than the 2018 version of this team but their losses came at Nebraska, at UAB, at ULM and at home against Memphis. In their last three games the Jaguars have been outyarded by a grand combined total of 660+ total yards (only 53 versus ULM but brutal numbers versus Memphis and UAB) and like I mentioned before they have never beaten Georgia Southern. Not at home, not on the road. If you look at the numbers you will see that South Alabama actually runs 69.6 plays per game this season compared to Georgia SOuthern who run an average of only 55.3 plays per game. What has happened in the past is the Eagles have controlled the clock early in games and forced South Alabama into a forced offense because of the lack of possessions. I see that happening again here. The Jaguars come into this game having turned the ball over 12 times in five games (5 lost fumbles and 7 interceptions) and their QB has been sacked 15 times. This is not good for an offense returning 8 starters from one season ago. The Jaguars love to run the ball just as much as Georgia Southern does (45 times per game) but they are not as good at it and average only 4.3 yards per carry. Also keep in mind that despite playing against LSU, Minnesota and Lousiana, this Georgia Southern defense has allowed only 3.8 yards per carry this season and that's pretty damn impressive. In the air South Alabama QBs have all been pretty terrible and complete only 50.8% of their passes for 140 passing yards per game and only 5.7 yards per pass attempt despite dropping back to throw some 24-25 times per game. The Georgia Southern defense has been torched in the air in 2019 but they finally catch their break tonight and I'm calling for this defense (allowed only 21.5 points per game in 2019) to finally start looking like the 2018 unit. They have forced 6 turnovers in only four games and against some pretty good opponents. You can bet your bottom dollar they are going to smell weakness in this game tonight and come hard at the Jaguars. This should be their best defensive performance of the 2019 season and I think the Eagles force a bunch of turnovers on long sustained South Alabama drives.

I have already mentioned how the last five games between these two schools has gone and there is no reason to believe that won't happen again tonight. I think the line should be around 15-16 but because Georgia Southern is off to a 1-3 start to the season (with games versus LSU and Minnesota), the line is a bit off. In their five meetings the Eagles have won all five games and they are 5-0 ATS in those games winning every single one of them by at least 15 points. I know the Eagles didn't play well in September but they come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five October games and I really think this will be their best game of the season. South Alabama played well against teams like Nebraska and ULM last weekend but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a losing record and coming off that spread cover versus ULM you should know that they are a pathetic 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a spread cover in the previous game. I'm going with the aggressor in this matchup which is and always has been Georgia Southern and I expect them to win this game by at least two touchdowns. Death, Taxes and Georgia Southern knocking the socks off South Alabama in this series.

Trend of the Game: South Alabama is 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a spread cover the game before.


Georgia Southern 37, South Alabama 7




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[MistaFlava]

Georgia Southern deserved a better chance than what they got. I mean South Bama had 1 first down close to the end of the game and it was a 75 yard touchdown pass. They finished with first downs. How do you not win a game by 20+ with that kind of box score? Unreal. Forgetting about that one and back at it on Saturday.

I didn't have access to this site today so I did my writeups on the road in Word. Format might look weird.

 

[MistaFlava]

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Saturday, October 4




Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 (10 Units)

The Iowa Hawkeyes looked good last week and I’m not going to lie I kind of doubted these guys at the start of the season but they are off to a 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) start and won yet again at their rivals Iowa State a few weeks ago. Anytime you can beat the Cyclones you know you have a shot at a good season. Right now it looks to me like the game at Wisconsin on November 9 will probably decide the Big Ten West this season but there is still a long way to go and a ton of football to be played. The last time Iowa came into this place was 2012 and they had one of their worst teams under Kirk Ferentz (finished the season 4-8 SU overall). #14 in the Country is the highest this team has been ranked since Week 3 of the 2016 season and in their two road games as an underdog last season the Hawkeyes went 1-0-1 ATS losing to Penn State by 6 (+6 point underdog) and Purdue by 2 (+3 point underdog). The Iowa offense is not a joke and it’s probable that Michigan’s defense forgot what a real offense looks like after last week’s Rutgers game. The Hawkeyes come into this game averaging 33.5 points per game on 465 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play with an average of 25.0 first downs per game. Michigan is allowing 19.3 points per game on only 296.3 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play so defense has been their strength but this is arguably the best offense they have seen in 2019. Iowa averages 217.5 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry and love to control clock and keep other teams defenses on the field for long periods of time with sustained drives. Michigan has been run on for 168.5 rushing yards per game. In the air, QB Nate Stanley is a Senior and he’s been incredible completing 64.4% of his passes for 8.2 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions while being sacked only 5 times this season. That’s huge because the Wolverines have struggled with pressure (6 sacks only) and their secondary has allowed opponents to complete only 67.4% of their passes for 5.9 yards per pass attempt and 2 interceptions on the season. Iowa has turned the ball over only 1 time in 2019. The Hawkeyes have a great balance on offense and a very good Senior QB who has not forgotten close road losses at Michigan State (2017), Penn State (2018) and Purdue (2018) as a road underdog the last two seasons.

The Michigan Wolverines were in shambles going into their game against Big Ten bottom feeders Rutgers but the Scarlet Knights were just what the doctor ordered for a struggling team and the Maze and Blue won 52-0 as a -27.5 point home favorite. Yes I was on Rutgers for some reason but they just never got things going and couldn’t score points. That doesn’t hide the fact that Michigan struggled against Middle Tennessee and Army in their other two home games this season. Things will go one of two ways for Harbaugh and his group. The Wolverines either gained some crazy confidence from the win last week or we get to see the real Michigan from the first three games which believe me was not a pretty thing. I’ll go with the latter. Michigan comes into this game averaging 32.5 points per game (almost the same as Iowa) but they average only 392 total yards of offense per game (73.0 less than Iowa per game) and 5.5 yards per play (0.8 less than Iowa). The Hawkeyes defense is allowing only 8.5 points per game this season on 251 total yards of offense (45.3 less yards per game than Michigan) and 4.9 yards per play. The reality of things is that Michigan struggles in the run game and that’s been the case all season despite the okay performance last week against Rutgers. They average only 130.5 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry this season and have to face an Iowa defense allowing only 78.5 rushing yards per game despite replacing every single member of the DL from one season ago. In the air QB Shea Patterson was okay last week but overall he has not been good. He has completed only 59.3% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. He has also been sacked 9 times in four games and the Hawkeyes will no doubt bring some pressure packages (they had 34 sacks as a defense lasts season). Michigan has turned the ball over 10 times this season while the Iowa defense has 6 takeaways and have allowed opponents to complete only 59.1% of their passes. They’ll get some stops and force some turnovers against the Wolverines in this one.

It’s hard to go back in time when it comes to opponents from different divisions within one Conference because they don’t play against each other enough to really impact overall meeting stats. Having said all of that, the UNDERDOG seems to really have an upper hand in this series going 11-3 ATS the last 14 times these two teams have met. I don’t buy Michigan’s performance last week against Rutgers for one second. It was a temporary patch to hide all the issues this team has and Kirk Ferentz will have his guys ready to compete in Ann Arbor. These two met back in 2016 with the same coaching staffs locked in place. Michigan was #2 at the time and lost on a time expiring game winning Field Goal by Iowa who were a +21 point home underdog. I expect a close game. Don’t forget Michigan is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games dating back to last season. That’s significant.

Trend of the Game: The UNDERDOG is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.


Iowa 23, Michigan 16




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[MistaFlava]

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Texas Tech Red Raiders +10 (10 Units)

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been so good to me this season it’s kind of hard to go against them for the first time but I feel this is the right time and the right spot. The Cowboys come into this game with a perfect 5-0 ATS record with their only straight up loss coming at Texas a few weeks ago. Impressive stuff and they’ve been great but going to Lubbock before their well-deserved BYE WEEK is not an easy thing to do. They played really well here in 2017 but still won by only 7 points despite outyarding the Red Raiders by 200+ total yards. So far this season the Cowboys are averaging a whopping 40.8 points per game and not one opponent has been able to stop them or slow them down although I have to say their total points per game has been declining since the McNeese State game (56 points). They scored 40 against Tulsa, 30 against Texas and 26 last week against Kansas State. The DC at Texas Tech is Keith Patterson who led the Utah State Aggies to allowing only 22.2 points per game in 2018. I can’t say Texas Tech’s defense has been great this season because they have faced both Arizona and Oklahoma and allowed but coming off 55 points allowed last week against the Sooners I expect this group to have a much better performance. They have allowed 24.0 points per game this season. Oklahoma State’s run game is one of the reasons they’ve done so well because they average 291 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry. That’s not happening in this game. Texas Tech has been run on 41 times per game this season and is allowing only 4.4 yards per carry. In the air their secondary has been Jekyll and Hyde. Opponents are completing only 55.6% of their passes against them this season but for 8.5 yards per pass attempt. They do have 3 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery as a unit but it’s their 7 sacks that stand out for me. Their best pass rushers from 2018 are all back and Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders has been sacked 5 times in five games. Don’t forget that the Cowboys have turned the ball over 8 times in five games this season. That’s going to be huge in this one against a stingy Tech defense that I would argue is slightly more inclined to make plays at home than Texas was. Huge bounce back spot for this Red Raiders D.

The Texas Red Raiders have a brand new coaching staff in 2019 after Kliff Kingsbury took off for the NFL. Matt Wells and his group all came over from a very successful 5 year stint at Utah State and so far they have led this bunch to a 2-2 SU record but they have dropped two straight. The big question mark surrounding the Texas Tech program has been the injury suffered by Sophomore QB Alan Bowman. I remember how good he was last season and then I remember when he got hurt versus West Virginia. Now he is out until Mid-November so it’s QB Jett Duffey time. Duffey took over for Bowman last season before being injured prior to the season finale. He led the team in rushing (369 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns and 4.7 yards per carry) and also threw 8 touchdown passes for a QB Rating of 143.5 on the season. This year the Red Raiders have a reliable RB in Utah grad transfer Armand Shyne who has run for 256 yards, 3 touchdowns and 6.9 yards per carry this season. Oklahoma State is ranked #85 in the Country against the run. This is a big problem with a dual threat QB like Duffey and a running game Texas Tech never had last season yet still won in Stillwater for the first time since 2001. In their three road games this season Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 31.0 points per game and allowed 447.3 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play. Oh my. Their secondary hasn’t been all that bad in those games as opponents are completing only 58.0% of their passes but like the Red Raiders defense this unit is also allowing big plays in the air and opponents averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt in their road games. What I like and this could be a very underrated stat is that Texas Tech is averaging only 4 penalties per game at home this season and it has cost them only 39.5 penalty yards per game. Oklahoma State on the other hand is averaging 8 penalties per away game this season and it has cost them a whopping 68 penalty yards per game. I think QB Jett Duffey is a perfect matchup for this Cowboys defense, something they have not seen much of in their big games and I think he torches the Cowboys on the ground and Texas Tech earns their first big win of the Matt Wells era.

If this game is anything like Oklahoma State-Texas was a few weeks ago then we are in for a treat but I don’t see it playing out that way. The decline of points per game for Oklahoma State has been a thing since Week 2 of the season and that has a lot to do with their opponents but there are two factor to consider here. Oklahoma State is coming off a big home win and they are on the verge of their BYE week so you know some guys have their eyes on that but yuk they have to play a tough road game first. Texas Tech on the other hand were embarrassed on the road at Oklahoma last week. Also to be remembered is that the Red Raiders beat the Cowboys in Stillwater for the first time since 2001 last season. Oklahoma State is only 1-4 ATS in the last four meetings and that also collides with the UNDERDOG being 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I’m going with the Texas Tech Red Raiders to stop this 5-0 ATS madness of the Oklahoma State Cowboys and if they don’t win this game they’ll at least come very close and this could go to overtime. Texas Tech for me at home.

Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.


Texas Tech 34, Oklahoma State 26




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[MistaFlava]

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Louisville Cardinals -5 (10 Units)

The Boston College Eagles are on the tail end of a 6 game season opening run without a BYE Week and I don’t have the exact stats but this is usually when teams get tired. My previous play on Texas Tech kind of reflects the same scenario with Oklahoma State at the end of their non-stop season opening run. I see that a big chunk of the betting public is taking the Eagles here but again consider the spot. They are coming off a somewhat impressive spread covering performance at home last week against Wake Forest but they still lost the game. They also went to Rutgers and won by only 14 points the week before. In the Wake Forest game they have it their best shot (outyarded the Deacons by 93 total yards) but still lost the game. Boston College comes into this game averaging 26 points per game on 470.3 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in their last three games however this Louisville defense is the real deal with 10 returning starters and new DC Bryan Brown. They have allowed only 18.7 points per game their last three games on 327.3 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play in those games. They rank in the TOP 50 in Total Yards defense, Run Defense and Points Allowed Defense. What a difference from the last few seasons. A massive part of the Boston College offense is their run game and in this matchup last year RB AJ Dillon ran for 272 yards (4 touchdowns). Not this year. The Cardinals defense is allowing only 104.3 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry in their last three games. Wow! In the air QB Anthony Brown has completed 57.7% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions in 2019. The Cardinals pass rush has 8 sacks in their last three games and they should get some penetration against a very good Boston College offensive line. I expect this defense to come out hot and make some big plays at home in their first ACC Conference home game under DC Brian Brown.

This is a big game for the Louisville Cardinals because for as well as they have played with this new coaching staff they are still without an ACC Conference win and are dead last in the ACC Atlantic. This is the game to start making that climb. Another factor to consider is that the Cardinals are coming off a very much needed BYE Week and Scott Satterfield coached teams are 10-1 SU lifetime coming off a BYE Week. He knows a thing or two about getting his teams prepared and keeping them right during their time off the field. The last time I bet on a Louisville game QB Jawon Pass was the QB and the Cardinals gave Notre Dame a nice run for their money in the season opener. Pass is injured and I don’t think he’s playing in this one. QB Malike Cunningham however should be good to go after being hurt in the Florida State game a few weeks ago. He has been very good for the Cardinals completing 60.1% of his passes for 10.5 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 2 rushing touchdowns and 1 interception. Wowsers. This is a big problem for the Boston College defense who have allowed their last three opponents to run for 200.7 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry. The Cardinals have a tremendous running attack (Cunningham had 5 rushing touchdowns last season too) and in the air they should be able to torch an Eagles secondary that has allowed their last three opponents to complete 68.1% of their passes for a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt. They allow some huge plays in the air and so far this season Cunningham has made some huge plays in the air. This defense lacks experience (3 returning starters) and they have only 2 sacks in their last three games. That’s a huge huge plus for a young Louisville offensive line that has allowed their QB to be sacked 9 times in the last three games. With time to pass or pull the ball in to run, Cunningham (assuming reports that he is playing are accurate) should have a monster day against a fading and tired defense. This is the first ACC Conference road game for this BC defense and it’s on the heels of their first BYE Week. I expect a horrendous performance from this unit.
When Louisville was relevant back in the day they won the first three ACC meetings between these two teams but then when they sunk to the bottom of the Conference they lost the last two. So here we are. One of the big reasons Boston College won this matchup 38-20 in 2018 is because RB AJ Dillon ran like a maniac for 4 touchdowns and 272 rushing yards. Not happening here. Not against Brian Brown, not against this revamped and veteran defense in a road game for BC. I am well aware of how good Boston College has been on the spread in ACC Conference games and I am well aware that Louisville after the loss to Florida State in their last game two weeks ago are now on an 0-7 ATS ACC Conference run. Having said that, you give Scott Satterfield a BYE WEEK (10-1 SU coming off Bye Weeks as a Head Coach) and you get the goods. The Cardinals are going to come out and play their best game of the season against a very tired and worn down Boston College team who are coming off a crushing loss and on the verge of their first BYE Week of the season. The Cardinals win big!

Trend of the Game: Louisville Head Coach Scott Satterfield is 10-1 SU coming off a BYE Week.


Louisville 48, Boston College 16




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[MistaFlava]

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Arkansas State Red Wolves -6.5 (10 Units)

I am assuming he line is so low because of all the injuries to this Arkansas State squad with QB Logan Bonner, RB Marcel Murray, DT Kevin Thurmon and RB Ryan Graham all being out of the lineup. I was expecting this line to be closer to -10 but given the injuries it makes sense. It doesn’t make me like this play any less because coach Blake Anderson knows the importance of this Sun Belt Conference game. The Red Wolves could be in a letdown spot coming off a that huge 50-43 upset win at Troy last weekend as a +7 point underdog but the way I see it is that is the win that is going to catapult their season. Look at their two away games so far that were not played at the Georgia Bulldogs. The won over Troy last week and a 43-17 win over UNLV earlier this season as a -1 point road favorite. This is an offense that is averaging 30.3 points per game in their last three games (that includes a trip to Georgia) on 417.3 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. Georgia State’s defense has been dreadful to say the least and in their last three games they have allowed 45.3 points per game on 527.3 total yards of offense and 7.6 yards per play (near the bottom of the National rankings). They gave up 42 to Furman (FCS) at home, 57 to Western Michigan on the road and 37 to Texas State on the road. Despite this prolific scoring Arkansas State are averaging only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground and have struggled without RB Marcel Murray and Ryan Graham. RB Isaiah Azubuike has struggled but he did reel off 88 yards on 5.9 yards per carry against Southern Illinois a few weeks ago and now faces a run defense of Georgia State that has allowed 295.3 rushing yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry their last three games. Azubuike should have a big game although he might not see too many carries as DJ Chatman was the preferred back in the Troy win. In the air QB Layne Hatcher, Alabama transfer, has had to step in for Bonner and he has completed 70& of his passes for 12.3 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. The good news for him is Georgia State allows 9.7 yards per pass attempt their last three games and they have only 1 total takeaway in those games. That should help an Arkansas State offense that turned the ball over 5 times the last three weeks and that allowed 11 sacks. I think the Red Wolves have a huge day again even if they don’t score 50.

The Georgia State Panthers are coming off a 2-10 SU season last season but they were supposed to be heading in the right direction with Shawn Elliott in his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] season and we are starting to see it a bit. The Panthers come into this game 2-2 SU on the season and have already matched last year’s win total after only four games mind you their two wins came at Tennessee (it was big back then but not so big anymore the way the Vols are playing) and against Furman. At no point in any of those games was their defense any good so it makes it challenging to back against good offensive opponents like Arkansas State who ranked #14 in the Nation in passing. Georgia State comes into this game averaging 30.7 points in their last three games averaging 441.7 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play and now they come off a BYE Week. Well for starters Head Coach Shawn Elliott is 1-4 SU lifetime coming off a BYE Week so there’s that. They also get to take on an Arkansas State defense that has been torched the last three weeks and allowed 42 points per game on 564.7 total yards of offense and 7.1 yards per play. WHOA! Hard to believe I’m backing this kind of defense right? I’m not saying Arkansas State won’t allow points because they will but they have the better run defense (5.7 yards per carry compared 6.6 yards per carry for Georgia State) and they have a defense that has 4 takeaways in their last three games. That’s essentially what this game could come down to and Georgia State have turned the ball over 6 times (3 interceptions and 3 fumbles) their last three games. These Sun Belt Conference games always come down to turnovers and like I mentioned before, even with Georgia on their schedule in the last three weeks, Arkansas State have turned it over less and created more fumbles than this Georgia State team. Their secondary and their defense are better than the Panthers and I like them to make some big plays in this game.

Boy this kind of feels like that Thursday night game between Georgia Southern and South Alabama where I pointed out previous meetings and previous head to heads and got burned for it but I’ll do it anyways here. Arkansas State is 5-0 SU lifetime versus Georgia State winning those games by 2 points (2013), 42 points (2014), 14 points (2015), 15 points (2016) and 16 points (2018). The Road Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings (all listed above) and Georgia State is a horrendous 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 Conference games. They are also 1-8-2 ATS in their 11 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a BYE Week. Arkansas State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October games and I like the momentum to continue for Blake Anderson and his squad as they head into their BYE Week (going against my scenario from earlier because of Elliott’s record off a BYE). Red Wolves with a big win.

Trend of the Game: Georgia State is 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 Sun Belt Conference Games.


Arkansas State 40, Georgia State 26





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[MistaFlava]

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish -46.5 (10 Units)

I have watched two Bowling Green games this season (don’t ask why please) and it has nothing to do with the fact that I used to drive by their stadium every weekend on my around Ohio a good 10 years ago. I can safely say they are one of the worst college football teams in the entire Country and that is pretty much a massive understatement. Sure they are coming off their BYE Week but who knows what they did in their time away from the field. The last we saw them they lost by 42 to Kent State in the futility Bowl two weeks ago between two of the worst program in FBS Football. 42 points. So what’s an extra 4.5 points for Notre Dame to cover? Bowling Green come into this game averaging a pathetic 9 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 264 total yards of offense and only 3.9 yards per play. Now they walk into the home of a Notre Dame defense that has SHUTOUT on their minds. The Irish despite playing Louisville, Georgia and Virginia on their schedule have the #27 ranked points allowed defense in the Nation. They are allowing only 19.0 points per game their last three games on 347.3 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. Those numbers should significantly get better today. Bowling Green tries to run the ball 35.7 times per game the last three games but average only 3.1 yards per carry. This D-Line will completely shut them down. Bowling Green QB Darius Wade has been a train wreck completing only 57.9% of his passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. The Falcons don’t turn the ball over much although they do have 4 turnovers in their last three games and have to go up against a Notre Dame defense who have a crazy 10 turnovers forced (5 Interceptions and 5 fumbles) in their last three games. This unit also has 8 sacks in those games and teams are struggling to get any kind of balance going. That won’t change against Bowling Green who have ben dreadful all around offensively in their last three games. They scored 0 against Kansas State, 7 against Louisiana Tech and 20 against a terrible program in Kent State. Forget about it.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are not in the same spot as other programs. Forget about the one loss they already have on the season. That was expected after going undefeated in 2018. Having said that, this team is not letting go of another run at the Playoffs and they believe that if they win out they can find a way to get there. On top of winning out this team needs to win big in games they should be winning big and this is one of them. My systems are almost call calling for Notre Dame to pitch a shutout in this one. The angle of “look-ahead” doesn’t exist with this program because they are 8-2 SU the week before USC and last year beat Syracuse 36-3 and the year before beat North Carolina 33-10 (covered the spread in both games). The Irish come into this game averaging 39.3 points per game in their last three games and they did that on 418.3 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play. Keeping in mind two of those opponents were Georgia and Virginia. Bowling Green’s defense is BRUTAL and they have allowed 49.7 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 574.7 total yards of offense per game on 7.5 yards per play. Notre Dame is going to score a lot and score often. On the ground the Falcons have allowed 279 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry in their last three and RB Tony Jones should have a career game. QB Ian Book probably won’t play all four quarters unless he needs to but he is up against a BG defense that has allowed their last three QB opponents to complete 79.3% of their passes for 10.2 yards per pass attempt. The Irish don’t turn the ball over much but they do take a ton of penalties and that is something Brian Kelly will be all over in this game. Clean it up before next week. Again the Irish needs style points and winning by 8-9 touchdowns is style points even if it’s against one of the worst teams in college football. I call for the Irish offense to score at least 60 in this one the way Kent State did two weeks ago and although Bowling Green will play with a bit more pride, it shouldn’t matter in this one.

This is not really fun for anyone unless you are a fan of the Irish or you are betting on either side. Otherwise if you are a general college football enthusiast there are much better games to watch and enjoy on the TV. This is where we come in. I love spots like this. Nobody is looking at this game and not too many have watched Bowling Green play this season. They are horrendous. Bowling Green comes into this game only 2-14 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Notre Dame is a perfect 2-0 ATS at home this season and 4-0 ATS if you go all the way back to last season. I am going with Brian Kelly in a cleanup and impress game. The starters won’t play the 4 quarters but they won’t even need it and should be covering the spread at some point in the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter. Irish win big and head into the USC game next week on absolute fire.

Trend of the Game: Bowling Green is 2-14 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.


Notre Dame 66, Bowling Green 0




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[MistaFlava]

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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +4 (10 Units)

One of the biggest public plays this week is on the Marshall Thundering Herd to win and cover this game but let’s take a look at a little bit of history here. The Thudering Herd are 10-17-2 ATS all time in their 29 games as a road favorite under Doc Holliday as coach. Over the course of the last three seasons they are 3-6 ATS in that spot and for the first time this season they are a road favorite. So how does this one end up? We know the Thundering Herd don’t play well in this spot and now you have a massive chunk of public money all over the spread and Money Line. I think what is being overlooked in this game by Marshall bettors is how the Thundering Herd have not played that well. They were outyarded by 269 total yards in a blowout loss to Cincinnati last week, they were outyarded by 265 total yards against Boise State in Week 2 of the season and they just barely beat Ohio at home with their only real big win coming against VMI. Frauds or what? Marshall comes into this game averaging only 18 points per game in their last three games (I removed the VMI game) and average 313 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play in those games. Middle Tennessee’s defense has been lit up like a candle their last three games but they’ve played Duke, Iowa and Tennessee State. That explains allowing 6.9 yards per play and close to 38.3 points per game. Marshall can really run the ball and average 182 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry in their last three games. Middle Tennessee has struggled big time stopping the run in their last three games allowing 5.7 yards per carry. That will be their focus in this game. Last year in the Marshall game they allowed only 3.9 yards per carry on 53 rush attempts by the Herd. Wow! In the air Marshall have been pretty bad completing only 50.0% of their passes the last three games for 131 passing yards per game and 5.2 yards per pass attempt. They have allowed 5 sacks and turned the ball over twice in those games. This is yet another nice break for a Middle Tennessee defense that was hammered for 8.9 yards per pass attempt their last three games. Marshall is the most favorable matchup since Week 2 of the season for this group and now that Michigan, Duke and Iowa games are gone, this defense can go back to playing the way they did the last two seasons. Marshall have been ineffective on offense all season.

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are glad the bulk of their schedule is gone because games versus Michigan, Duke and Iowa is not exactly how you want to kick start your season. Having said that, it’s time for CUSA Conference play and this is a whole new season for the teams involved. Everyone sees this as a massive revenge game for Marshall because Middle Tennessee went there last season and won for the first time ever but I see it more as Middle Tennessee will play their best game of the season here knowing they’ve beat this team just one season ago. The Blue Raiders come in averaging 22.0 points per game in their last three games (better than Marshall’s 18.0 points per game during that span) and they average 386.3 total yards of offense (73.3 more than Marshall) and 6.9 yards per play (1.6 more than Marshall). Those are impressive numbers against Duke and Iowa’s defenses. Marshall’s defense has been just as bad as MTSU’s the last three games and they have allowed 32.3 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in those games (only 0.4 less than Middle Tennessee). The Blue Raiders are just as good as Marshall at running the ball averaging 5.4 yards per carry their last three games and they go up against a Marshall defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry during that same time span. Unlike Marshall, Middle Tennessee have a QB. Asher O’Hara has completed 70.3% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Marshall’s secondary is awful and they have allowed 9.2 yards per pass attempt their last three games and 264 passing yards while their opponents managed to complete 67.4% of their passes. Protecting O’Hara has been an issue (9 sacks last three games) but Marshall has only 4 sacks in their last three games. Middle Tennessee rarely turns the ball over (only 2 in last three games) and they should have enough weapons on the ground and in the air to win this one at home.

This is the CUSA Conference opener for both teams and that means we should be in for one hell of a game. I keep reading about this being a massive revenge game for Marshall after losing at home to the Blue Raiders for the first time ever but with Middle Tennessee coming off that blowout loss at Iowa last week and with Marshall getting exposed the way they did against both Boise State and Cincinnati, I’d say I’m not sure revenge is the first thing on the minds of Marshall players. Middle Tennessee comes into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus CUSA Conference opponents. It’s also worth noting that Marshall is 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus an opponent with a record of .500 or below at home. That combined with Doc Holliday’s 10-17-2 ATS record as an away fave as head coach of Marshall and I say Middle Tennessee pulls this off.

Trend of the Game: Marshall are 10-17-2 ATS as a road favorite under Doc Holliday.


Middle Tennessee 38, Marshall 27





more to come...

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava...…..here's to a solid Sat. and weekend buddy......look forward to your complete card.....sweep'em buddy...…….indy

 

[MistaFlava]

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North Carolina Tar Heels -10.5 (10 Units)

The North Carolina Tar Heels were favored once this season and they blew that by losing to Appalachian State at home a few weeks ago. Now they get another shot and I think we'll see a completely different animal. This would be a natural letdown spot for the Heels after almost beating Clemson last week but from what I have read the spirits and high and the confidence is beaming on this team. That's great news because Georgia Tech might be the most motivated they have been all season. The Heels come into this game averaging 24.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 392.8 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. I would have to say the one aspect of their offense they have yet to really get going is the running game as they average only 154.2 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry (not bad considering they've played Clemson, SC and Miami) but this game should be different. The Heels should have their way pounding the ball with RBs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter who are going up against a Tech run defense that has allowed 255.5 rushing yards per game this season and 5.2 yards per carry in those games. Horrendous. When the Heels are not running the ball they'll be able to throw all over this GT defense with QB Sam Howell who is playing in his first UNC-GT battle. He has completed 62.5% of his passes this season for 1168 passing yards per game, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 11 Touchdown passes and 2 Interceptions with a QB Rating of 153.1 on the season. Impressive stuff. The Georgia Tech defense has actually defended the pass pretty well this season but that's because opponents choose to run it down their throats at a clip of 49.5 carries per game versus only 20.3 pass attempts per game. One of the big issues for North Carolina has been the play of their offensive line and how they have allowed a crazy 19 sacks in five games now. That won't be that much of an issue in this one as the Tech defense has only 6 sacks in four games this season. The big thing for me here if I'm not buying the hook on the Tar Heels at 10.5 is that they are scoring touchdowns 100% of the time in the Red Zone so far in 2019. That's impressive stuff and they obviously have a good playcaller or two once they get down in the money area. The Tar Heels won't explode for 40 points in this one (their season high is 31) but they'll do just enough to win this game by at least two touchdowns.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are in a re-building season with only 5 starters on offense and only 4 starters on defense to go along with a brand new Head Coach and a brand new coach in almost every facet of the game. That doesn't just take a few games to get adjusted, it can take up to an entire season or two so don't expect this 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS start to get any better in this game. I will say this however. If the Yellow Jackets are going to win one game this season it's this one so for me it's UNC big like I see this playing out or Georgia Tech shocks the college football world. You would think a program like this would have some kind of history of success winning at home as underdog because Bobby Dodd Stadium fills up nicely on gameday and when it's full it can be a tough place to play but the Yellow Jackets are only 4-9 ATS since 2010 as a home underdog. Not good. To their credit however they were outyarded by only 18 yards in a 24-2 loss to Temple last weekend and only 49 total yards in a home loss to Citadel three weeks ago (yes you read that right Citadel). You have to understand that all the personnel on this offense were brought in here by Paul Johnson to run the option and now they switch to a Pro Style offense which explains the 13.5 points per game and the 289.8 total yards of offense on 4.7 yards per play. North Carolina's defense has struggled in almost every game they have played and allowed 24.8 points per game on 382 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. Having said that can you blame them seeing how they've played South Carolina, Miami Florida, Wake Forest and Clemson and are still 3-2 ATS? Georgia Tech still runs the ball (40+ times per game) and average 4.1 yards per carry so they'll have some success in this game but when they eventually have to pass is where the problems will start. First off QB Tobias Oliver will probably start in this game and he has completed only 42.3% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 0 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 84.1. UNC has faced some really good QB's in 2019 yet they still have 11 sacks in five games and should be able to get to the Georgia Tech QB (whoever it is) as the Yellow Jackets have allowed 10 sacks in four games. They have also thrown 4 interceptions and lost a crazy 5 fumbles in only four games. North Carolina's defense is averaging at least one turnovers per game and they have forced 11 FG attempts in 2019 which means their Red Zone defense has been solid. This is a defense that has yet to hold an opponent to under 20 points this season but I think they finally get the job done in this one.

Imagine walking into a classroom as a teacher and every kid is right handed. Because you're new you tell them that they need to start writing with their left hand and can no longer use their right hand. That's pretty much what Geoff Collins has done at Georgia Tech where he inherited guys who were brought in to run the option and has switched them over to a Pro Style offense. Hence the 2 points scored against Temple (his old team) last week. North Carolina comes into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five ACC Conference games and they love playing on the grass surface (4-1 ATS in their last five). Georgia Tech are not only 0-4 ATS this season but they have lost 7 straight on the spread (0-7 ATS) dating back to last season. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and only 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a game where they score less than 20 points the previous game. Historically this is not a place where the Tar Heels have played well but the Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and after nearly beating Clemson last week with their BYE Week looming I think Mack Brown and his guys come in here and get the job done against a desperate Georgia Tech team.

Trend of the Game: Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.


North Carolina 30, Georgia Tech 13





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -3 (10 Units)

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are coming off an impressive 20-13 home win over UAB last weekend and Tyson Helton (yes he is Clay's brother) continues to get the most out of his guys. It's hard to believe this is the same team that lost by 7 to Central Arkansas in the season opener but since then they have gone on the road as a +8 point road underdog and won at Florida International and they have given Louisville a decent run for their money eventually losing by 17. I know this is a brand new coaching staff and they have inherited a 3-9 SU team from one season ago but this is a very veteran squad that returns 10 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters to their lineup. So about this Western Kentucky offense that returns 10 starters. Well in their last three games they have averaged pretty pathetic numbers averaging 20.3 points per game on 283 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play but they get the Old Dominion defense that has allowed 27.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 321.3 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. Prior to the season this WKY offense was predicted to be on average at least 7 points better than 2018 (21.1 points per game in 2018). So far we haven't seen it but QB Ty Storey brings hope. The Arkansas grad transfer started 9 games for the Razorbacks last season and so far this season he has completed 62.5% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a Q Rating of 156.2 This offense is just getting started. The Hilltoppers average only 58 rushing yards per game in their last three games but this game won't be won on the ground it will be won in the air. Despite allowing opponents to complete only 53.4% of their passes the Old Dominion secondary is allowing 8.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The pass protection has actually been great for WKU but they just can't establish a run game. Again expect all of that to change. Coming into the 2018 meeting, WKU had not rushed for more than 200 yards in any of their first 6 games but in the game versus the Monarchs they ran for 207 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry in a 3 point loss. I like Ty Storey and I like his playmaking ability. He will make the most of this opportunity coming in for an injured QB Steven Duncan. WKU controls this game and for the first time since the first two games of the season a RB on this team runs for 100+ yards.

The Old Dominion Monarchs were impressive as hell a few weeks ago when they went to Virginia and gave the Cavaliers a nice little threat. Despite losing that game 28-17, Old Dominion won the yardage battle and finished with 26 more total yards than the Cavs. The Monarchs come into this game 1-3 SU on the season and only 2-2 ATS in those games. Going all the way back to their season and home opener back on August 31, there was just no life in this ball club and the barely escaped with a 24-21 home win as a -25.5 point home favorite. In their next true home game which just so happens to be last week, East Carolina won the yardage battle by 24 total yards and beat the Monarchs who were a -2.5 point home favorite. I just don't trust these guys at home even though they beat Western Kentucky for the first time on the road just one season ago. The Monarchs come into this game averaging 18.3 points per game their last three games and they have done that on 296 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. Western Kentucky's defense has been better than they get credit fo allowing 21.7 points per game in their last three games and allowing 310 total yards of offense on 4.6 yards per play in those games. That's a full 6 points less per game than Old Dominion's defense and a full 0.9 yards per play less. Much like WKU, Old Dominion really struggles to run the ball and they average 119 rushing yards per game on a brutal 2.9 yards per carry only. Western Kentucky's defense is run tested (45.3 carries against per game their last three games) and have allowed only 3.5 yards per carry in those games. In the air QB Stone Smartt has completed 60.5% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt his last three games but has been sacked 15 times (yes you're reading that right), has thrown 3 interceptions and as a team the Monarchs have fumbled 4 times (lost only one of them). That won't fly against WKU's defense who have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 50.7% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. They have 7 sacks, 4 interceptions and have forced 4 fumbles (recovered one of them) in those same games. This is a team that makes plays on defense and they have a huge edge over an Old Dominion defense that has not looked good.

The last time Western Kentucky played here it was an absolute shootout and as wild a game as you could ever bet on but they won 35-31 (failed to cover the spread). The line is low here and I was expecting much more action on Western Kentucky but a ton of money has gone to Old Dominion again this week as it did last week when they played East Carolina and over 70% of the betting public was on them. Didn't work. Western Kentucky comes into this game 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus CUSA Conference opponents and they will be looking to end the current 0-5 ATS run they have been on the last two Octobers combined. Old Dominion looked good against Virginia but that was an in-State battle and they seem to get up for those games. Otherwise they are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus CUSA Conference opponens and have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 16 home games. WOW! Slight advantage to the Home Team when you look at previous matchups but the days of Mike Sanford (0-5 ATS as a road favorite as Head Coach of WKU the last two seasons) are long gone and it's time for Tyson Helton to earn his first big road CUSA Conference win (and cover).

Trend of the Game: Old Dominion has covered the spread in only 4 of their last 16 Home Games.


Western Kentucky 28, Old Dominion 17





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Rice Owls +10.5 (10 Units)

The Rice Owls are coming off their best game of the 2019 and it still wasn't enough to win as they hosted Louisiana Tech last week and lost 23-20 in overtime as a +10 point underdog. That was the first time all season they outyarded an opponent after being destroyed in the yardage battle versus Wake Forest, Texas and Baylor. What's funny about that however is that the Owls have managed to keep games close. They are 3-1-1 ATS on the season and if it wasn't for Wake Forest reeling off a 99 yard touchdown run for their own 1 yard line late in that game the Owls would be 4-1 ATS right now. The Owls are inching closer and closer to their first win of the season and I see that coming in today's game in what some may consider a huge upset. Scoring points has been the issue for Rice but they haven't really been able to establish themselves always playing from behind. The offense is averaging only 4.5 yards per play and only 15.3 points per game in their last three games but again consider the opponents in those games (Texas, Baylor and Louisiana Tech) and you will say that it's not too bad. UAB on the other hand have yet to play a real team in 2019 and have been played against Alabama State, Akron, South Alabama and Western Kentucky. That's all. So it's no surprise their defense has allowed only 14.3 points per game in their last three games and allowed only 268.3 total yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play. Rice loves to run the ball but they average only 3.1 yards per carry against those big D Lines they have seen in recent games. Now they face a young UAB defensive line that have not really seen a relentless run attack like Rice's and that have allowed only 2.0 yards per carry against teams who don't choose run first option. Rice QB Wiley Green came into the Louisiana Tech game and gave this offense some life. UAB's secondary is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games so look for either of the two Rice quarterbacks to start throwing the ball often and throwing the ball early despite being sacked 7 times in their last three games. UAB have been teeing off on weaker opponents and have 12 sacks in their last three games but they'll find it tougher in this one with the amount of time Rice runs the ball. The Owls have turned the ball over only 2 times in their last three games and and average only 2.3 penalties per game. All formulas for winning a football game.

The UAB Blazers have to be careful because so far in 2019 they have faced virtually nobody of any significance and last week suffered their first loss of the season going down 20-13 on the road at Western Kentucky as a -3 point favorite and with a ton of the public backing them. I'm taking a bit of a risk here because Bill Clark has been tremendous coming off a straight up loss going 10-3 SU in his career as a Head Coach but the Blazers lack so much experience with only 8 returning starters this season and I question how that loss last week will impact this team. They were 6-2-1 ATS heading into the season as a Home Favorite under Bill Clark since the return from hiatus but dropped their opener (spread wise) to Alabama State. The UAB offense comes into this game averaging 404.7 total yards of offense on 6.0 yards per play in their last three games but that has resulted in only 26.3 points per game. Reason for that being that this team cannot stay out of their own way and their quarterbacks have thrown 7 interceptions during that time span. They also have big time issues running the ball with such a young team as they average 133.7 rushing yards per game but also average only 3.4 yards per carry which means they just don't reel off big runs. Rice has been tried and tested on the ground by some of the Power 5 schools in recent weeks and their defense has actually handled it well allowing only 126.3 rushing yards per game and only 4.1 yards per carry (again consider Baylor and Texas were opponents in that span). The secondary is where the issue has been for Rice facing a couple of tremendous quarterbacks the last three weeks so it's understandable. UAB QB Tyler Johnston is a high risk, high reward Sophomore QB who is still making freshman mistakes. If you combine his interceptions from last season and this season he has thrown 15 INTERCEPTIONS now in 9 career starts. Yikes. Rice has 0 interceptions on the season but have 4 guys on their roster who combined for 8 interceptions in 2018 so you know they will be ball hawking in this one. The Owls will have to limit the big plays here and their defense will have to come up with a couple of turnovers which I believe they will.

The key in this one for the battle tested Rice Owls is going to throw the first few punches and if punches are thrown their way first then they have to punch right back. Having been outscored 94-21 in the last two meetings against this UAB team the last two seasons you better believe the 12 returning starters will come out ready for this one. Don't forget this team was 5-2 ATS last season as a road underdog under Mike Bloomgren and so far this season they are 1-0 ATS in that same role having gone to West Point and almost beat Army in the opener. The Owls are now 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they are 5-0 ATS in their last give road games overall. Rice plays very well in conference play going 5-1 ATS in their last six CUSA Conference games and although UAB is one of the better Home Teams in the Conference and they are coming off a loss (both recipes for a big win), I think their inexperience is going to show in this game today and the CUSA West Standings are going to get a lot tighter once this is all said and done. Mike Bloomgren is 0-9 SU away from home as head coach of this team but they have played well and I like their chances of pulling off this upset.

Trend of the Game: Rice is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season.


Rice 26, UAB 20





more to come...

 

[HacheMan]

Nice writeups

GL today

 

[Recon792]

Good luck flava

 

[Suza271]

Good luck.... interesting side story about Bowling Green from an Ohioan. Thanks!

 

[MistaFlava]

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Tulsa Golden Hurricane +13 (10 Units)

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are in somewhat of a re-building period right now after going 3-9 SU last season and 2-10 SU the season before that. Having said that, the expectation under Philip Montgomery was that they were going to start competing again in the AAC Conference at some point in the mid-season and that time has come now. The Golden Hurricane are coming off a BYE Week where all they did was prepare for the now ranked SMU Mustangs and this game. It's been since 2010 that Tulsa beat a ranked opponent but what better place and time to change that than right here right now? In 2017 Tulsa came into this place on a three game win streak over SMU and led 31-21 late in the game but SMU went on a rampage and scored the final 17 points to win 38-31. You're telling me that two years later this team is a 13 point road dog? Cmon man. Tulsa comes into this game averaging 26.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 457.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play. The running game has not really worked for Tulsa even though they average a crazy 50 rush attempts per game in their last three games for 165.7 rushing yards and 3.3 yards per carry. SMU's defense has been stout against the run holding TCU, USF and Texas State to only 102 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. Having said all of that and despite the solid defensive numbers, SMU has allowed 25.3 points per game in their last three games which is a lot for a team trying to win by almost two touchdowns. Tulsa Junior QB Zach Smith (Baylor transfer) has been very good for the Golden Hurricane completing 58.5% of his passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 5 Touchdown Passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 132.6 coming into this game. SMU's defense has allowed the last three quarterbacks they have seen to average a QB Rating of 121.8. Smith is a pure pocket passer and the offensive line has struggled to protect him (10 sacks in last three games). SMU's defense has 18 sacks (yes you read that right) their last three games so expect Tulsa to slow this thing down and stick to the run as much as possible and then let Smith strike when they get their protection right. The key for me here is that Tulsa does not turn the ball over (only once in the last three games) and I expect them to make a game of this.

The Southern Methodist Mustangs are ranked for the first time in God knows how long as they enter the TOP 25 with their 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS mark on the season. Nobody expected this to happen this quickly under Sonny Dykes who came over from Louisiana Tech and California but it has. I am going to use an angle I've been using this entire and that is a team coming off a BYE Week (Tulsa) versus a team going on a BYE Week (SMU). You have to believe the Mustangs are looking forward to the time off next week with games against Temple, Houston and Memphis on the horizon when they come back. I also don't think SMU respects Tulsa at all seeing they won a combined 5 games the last two seasons. That's a problem. So at first glance this is a massive mismatch for the Tulsa defense that has been lit up for 25.7 points per game and 403.7 total yards of offense on 6.0 yards per play. Here's the thing. Any team that allows 6.0 yards per play typically allows 30+ points per game but Tulsa has a bend but don't break type of defense. They are actually much better than the numbers show and I think they'll show that in today's game coming off the BYE Week. SMU loves to run the ball and they have averaged 251 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. Tulsa has never been able to stop the run and I don't expect that to be the case either but when they decide to load up the box and make former Texas QB Shane Buechele throw the ball which he has done very well completing 69.4% of his passes for 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdown passes and...5 interceptions with a QB Rating of 158.2. I highlight the interceptions because SMU has turned the ball over a total of 6 times now in their last three games and it has yet to cost them but the law of averages in college football say that teams who continue to turn the ball over at that rate will eventually lose or at least fail to cover a spread. Tulsa has forced 4 turnovers in their last three games as a defense and they have one of the most underrated secondaries in the entire Nation. I bet nobody knows this. Their last three opponents have completed only 47.3% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt and those last three QB Opponents have an average QB Rating of only 112.8. Bend but don't break is the mentality and they will bring that into this game coming off the BYE. I call for Tulsa's secondary to have 1-2 interceptions today at key moments of this game when SMU decides to throw.

This is going to be a great game. Over 70% of the betting public is on SMU to win and cover like they have done in every single game this season but Tulsa coming off a BYE and playing in a place where they have won a ton of games in the past is going to be dangerous. Looking back at their history of the last few season, Tulsa is an incredible 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on the road versus a team with a winning record at home and they are an impressive 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road games overall. The UNDERDOG is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between these two schools and the Road Team is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings. Tulsa's defense is not as bad as everyone is making them out to be and they actually have a very good secondary. SMU has turned the ball over way too much in the last three games and this is the game where it will cost them. Does the betting public realize how hard it is to go 6-0 SU let alone go 6-0 ATS. The laws of college football are telling me SMU is due for a letdown (which typically comes when a team is ranked for the first time in forever) and Tulsa will have their game of the season. UPSET CENTRAL!

Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning record at home.


Tulsa 27, Southern Methodist 21






more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

Good luck.... interesting side story about Bowling Green from an Ohioan. Thanks!

I've legit driven by their stadium over 100 times in the last 10 years and it's in the middle of absolutely nowhere. I watched their entire game against Kent State and I just don't see how they even put any points on the board in this game. Brian Kelly smells blood and he'll go in for the kill (52-17 over Miami Ohio last year, 62-27 over UMass in 2016, 48-17 over Rice in 2015). This is a great confidence booster for his young defense and he'll have them go all out against dual threat QB. Bye week is next. Good luck today!

 

[BigCat]

MF BOL today

 

[MDGolf]

I'm following all your plays minus the first one; I was too late for it. LETS GET THIS MONEY FLAVA!

 

[Bahama_Shark]

Love the write ups, Good luck today